2025 系列研究框架培训 - 创新药行业框架 20250724 摘要 Q&A 创新药板块在过去五年中的涨跌逻辑发生了哪些变化？ 过去五年中，创新药板块的涨跌逻辑经历了显著变化。首先，从 2020 年至 2022 年，创新药板块的上涨主要依赖于政策托底和海外数据的映射效应。在 这段时间内，ASCO 会议期间发布的重要数据往往会引发市场对国内创新药的 创新药物从初步数据验证到最终上市销售经历五个关键阶段，包括初步 数据验证、达成 BD、海外推进三期临床、海外获批上市和销售超预期， 每个阶段都可能显著提升公司市值。药物研发不同临床阶段重点不同， 1A 期验证安全性，1B/2 期评估疗效，3 期进行大规模人群试验。 创新药投资需关注"差异化创新"和"真创新"，即能显著解决未满足 需求、打开未来市场空间的新产品。疗效优越性和差异性比单纯追求 first in class 更重要。选择新兴医药公司需综合考虑产品能力、推进速 度、竞争格局及国际合作能力。 中国医药行业在全球创新中地位提升，在工程化改造和新技术如 ADC、 双抗体等领域取得进展。中国在研发效率和成本控制方面具有优势，能 够更快获得早期临床数据，吸引跨国公司 ...

Core Viewpoint - The innovation drug sector is experiencing a resurgence, driven by supportive policies and a favorable investment environment, marking a significant shift from "squeezing out excess" to "promoting innovation" in the pharmaceutical industry [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, the pharmaceutical sector showed strong performance, with the CITIC Pharmaceutical Index rising by 8.11%, outperforming major indices like the Shanghai Composite Index (+5.98%) and the ChiNext Index (+4.25%) [3]. - The A-share innovation drug index increased by 21.84%, while the Hong Kong Hang Seng Innovation Drug Index surged by 60.27% during the same period [4]. Group 2: Policy Support and Industry Trends - The recent policy document titled "Several Measures to Support the High-Quality Development of Innovative Drugs" outlines 16 measures to support the entire chain of innovative drug development, indicating a systemic shift in policy support [2][7]. - The domestic pharmaceutical industry has undergone a transformation since the "4+7" procurement policy was implemented in 2018, leading to a fruitful period for innovative drugs in 2025 as the results of this transformation begin to materialize [7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The innovation drug sector is expected to remain a key investment focus in the third quarter, with core innovative drug assets requiring attention despite potential short-term fluctuations [8]. - The CDMO (Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization) sector is anticipated to see a revenue recovery trend continuing into the second quarter of 2025, as the industry has established an order inflection point [9]. - The CRO (Contract Research Organization) and front-end innovative drug sectors are set to benefit from overseas licensing deals, which will bring incremental revenue expectations from upfront payments [10].