证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 14 日 ►策略：震荡中枢上升，轮动框架不变 结构风险酝酿&资金参与意愿不低的情况下，板块行情可能继 续轮动。哪些板块可能成为后续的轮动项？新能源仍然是博 弈轮动的首选，红利&消费则是博弈高低切的方向。 新能源逻辑相对扎实（储能市场化&海外需求&AI 电力需求）， 但在 11 月 21 日大跌后，行情始终未迎来修复。AI 算力的大 涨缓解了市场对 AI 泡沫的担忧，这也意味着 AI 电力需求的逻 辑并未受到冲击，可以考虑布局，等待反弹行情。 红利行情从 11 月 14 日开始走弱，截至 12 月 12 日，中证红利 已下跌 6.47%。从 924 以来的历史经验来看，潜在跌幅或有 限。同时，12 月红利板块通常占优，背后是机构资金年底资 产再平衡&险资增配，意味着红利品种存在反弹空间。 消费同样是滞后修复的板块，其阶段性行情可能出现在科技 轮动缺位的情况下。关注带有科技色彩的消费品种，如在 12 月初短暂上涨的消费电子、端侧 AI，有望加入板块轮动中。 转债方面，近日，蓝天转债受控股股东股权冻结影响，价格 剧烈波动，受到市场广泛关注 ...

上证报中国证券网讯 12月11日，中证转债指数早盘收跌0.41%，报481.13点。再22转债涨6.26%，华懋 转债涨5.66%，微导转债涨5.60%；蓝天转债跌5.91%，凯盛转债跌4.20%，华锐转债跌4.16%。 来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 上证报中国证券网讯 12月11日，中证转债指数早盘收跌0.41%，报481.13点。再22转债涨6.26%，华懋 转债涨5.66%，微导转债涨5.60%；蓝天转债跌5.91%，凯盛转债跌4.20%，华锐转债跌4.16%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In November, convertible bonds smoothed out the volatility of the equity market through their own valuation fluctuations, providing a good experience for investors. In December, it is recommended to closely monitor the convertible bond market's cross - sectional price center in the range of 128 - 136 yuan for active allocation and seize the opportunity to replenish the previously liquidated positions. In terms of style, a dumbbell - shaped allocation of low - priced large - cap individual bonds and low - premium equity - like individual bonds is suggested, and the allocation of technology - growth equity - like individual bonds should be gradually increased in mid - December. Also, continue to focus on investment opportunities in the early stage of new bond listings [1]. - The convertible bond optimal portfolio for December includes Industrial Bank Convertible Bonds (15%), TaiNeng Convertible Bonds (15%), LanTian Convertible Bonds (15%), XiWang Zhuan 2 (10%), HongWei Convertible Bonds (10%), BaoLong Convertible Bonds (10%), XiaoXiong Convertible Bonds (10%), HuiCheng Convertible Bonds (5%), DaoTong Convertible Bonds (5%), and HangYu Convertible Bonds (5%) [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 11 - Month Convertible Bond Market Review: Oscillation Adjustment, Valuation Compression - The convertible bond market in November first rose and then fell, showing an oscillatory pattern. The CSI Convertible Bond Index reached a high of 494.49 on November 13th and then adjusted. The overall market was up first and then down. The large - cap value style of the stock market continued to lead, and convertible bonds were more resilient than the underlying stocks. Specifically, the CSI Convertible Bond Index had a change of - 0.69%, the Shanghai Composite Index - 1.67%, and the Wind Convertible Bond Underlying Stock Weighted Index - 1.8%. The large - cap value style index of the stock market increased by 1.78%, while other style indices had negative returns. In terms of price, low - priced convertible bonds had a decline of - 0.09%, leading other price - level convertible bonds, and high - priced individual bonds were under greater pressure. In terms of scale, large - cap convertible bonds performed relatively better; in terms of rating, AA - and below rated convertible bonds had a decline of - 0.28%, outperforming other rating indices; in terms of industry, the material - related convertible bond index had the leading increase [9]. - In terms of valuation, the implied volatility of convertible bonds increased from 41.49% to 43.81% in November. The main increase occurred on November 21st when the equity market adjusted significantly, and the convertible bond price did not follow the significant adjustment of the equity market, leading to a jump in valuation. Subsequently, as the equity market stabilized and rebounded, the convertible bonds did not follow the gain significantly, and the implied volatility of convertible bonds was compressed [14]. 3.2 12 - Month Convertible Bond Market Outlook: The Allocation Value of Convertible Bonds Has Increased, Seize the Opportunity to Replenish Positions - In the past few months' monthly outlooks for the convertible bond market, it was continuously recommended to pay close attention to the cross - sectional price center of the convertible bond market in the range of 128 - 134 yuan for allocation. Looking forward to December and 2026, due to the supply - demand mismatch, more attention can be paid to the median range of 128 - 136 yuan. As of the end of November, the median price of the convertible bond market was 131.05 yuan, a decrease of 1.35 yuan from the end of last month, and the balance - weighted price was 132.35 yuan, a decrease of about 1 yuan from the end of last month [19][22]. - In the short - term, the current fixed - income plus funds are sufficient, and the convertible bond market is continuously shrinking. It is expected that the convertible bond valuation is difficult to enter the deep - value range. Also, due to the previous consistent profit - taking by investors and the market shrinkage, the convertible bond positions have decreased sufficiently, and investors' tolerance for high valuations may increase. In terms of style, continue to focus on low - priced large - cap individual bonds and low - premium equity - like individual bonds. In terms of industry, although a dumbbell - shaped combination of technology - growth and value - dividend is recommended, due to the rapid shrinkage of convertible bonds, the selection space for dividend - type individual bonds is limited. It is suggested to pay attention to the remaining low - priced dividend individual bonds and allocate them appropriately below 125 yuan, and also focus on individual bonds in sectors such as non - ferrous metals & precious metals, new energy, robotics, and AI [3][35]. - In the long - term, it is still recommended to dynamically observe the price center and seize the opportunity to replenish convertible bond positions. If there is a significant fluctuating adjustment in the convertible bond market in December, it is still a good opportunity for allocation. Specifically, when the cross - sectional price of convertible bonds is below around 130 yuan, the allocation intensity can be gradually increased. Additionally, in the context of high convertible bond valuations, continue to focus on investment opportunities in the early stage of new convertible bond listings. Statistics show that if the closing price on the second day of listing is used as the purchase price and held for 10 - 15 trading days, significant excess returns can be obtained [36][37]. 3.3 12 - Month Convertible Bond Portfolio Update - The convertible bond optimal portfolio for December includes Industrial Bank Convertible Bonds (15%), TaiNeng Convertible Bonds (15%), LanTian Convertible Bonds (15%), XiWang Zhuan 2 (10%), HongWei Convertible Bonds (10%), BaoLong Convertible Bonds (10%), XiaoXiong Convertible Bonds (10%), HuiCheng Convertible Bonds (5%), DaoTong Convertible Bonds (5%), and HangYu Convertible Bonds (5%). Compared with the November portfolio, the December portfolio maintains a dumbbell - shaped structure, with a diversified allocation of equity - like individual bonds. YuGuang Convertible Bonds that were subject to forced redemptions and Bo 23 Convertible Bonds that might trigger forced redemptions in the November portfolio were removed, and HuiCheng Convertible Bonds and XiaoXiong Convertible Bonds were added [2][43]. - The high - dividend + coupon portfolio had a return of + 0.29% in November compared to - 0.69% of the CSI Convertible Bond Index, and a return of + 40.18% since 2023 compared to + 22.66% of the CSI Convertible Bond Index. The construction method of this portfolio can be referred to in the research report "How to Select Bonds under the Dual Framework of Dividends & Coupons? - Convertible Bond Investment Manual Eleven" and previous monthly convertible bond outlook reports [44].

Core Viewpoint - The convertible bond market has shown strong performance in the previous cycle, with the high-price index rising by 1% and significant excess returns from high-wave strategies [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The convertible bond market performed outstandingly in the last cycle, with a 1% increase in the high-price index [1] - High-wave strategies demonstrated notable excess returns [1] Group 2: Adjustments in Holdings - The current period has seen an acceleration in the redemption process for strong redemptions, with high-priced convertible bonds being removed from the portfolio [1] - Bonds with weakened Q3 performance, such as Fuchun Convertible Bond and Lantian Convertible Bond, have also been excluded [1] - New additions include high-priced targets with stable overall performance in the first three quarters and lower redemption risks [1] Group 3: Market Conditions and Strategy - Overall prices and premium rates of convertible bonds have risen to high levels [1] - While bullish sentiment remains, increased volatility is observed in the high-price environment, necessitating appropriate control of downside risks [1] - Continuous monitoring of market trends and sector rotations is advised [1]

Core Insights - The report highlights the performance of three investment strategies: Low Price Enhancement, Improved Dual Low, and High Price High Elasticity, which recorded returns of 1.3%, 0.5%, and 0.7% respectively during the last period, outperforming the benchmark return of 0.3% [1] - Year-to-date, these strategies have achieved returns of 17.4%, 28.2%, and 52.2%, with cumulative excess returns of 0.3%, 11.2%, and 35.2% compared to the benchmark return of 17.0% [1] - The equity market experienced fluctuations, with the Wind All A and CSI Convertible Bonds rising by 1.5% and 0.3% respectively, indicating a resurgence of low volatility strategies [1] Low Price Enhancement Strategy - The latest holdings include new entries such as Jinggong Convertible Bond (Construction Decoration), Shangyin Convertible Bond (Bank), and Yangfeng Convertible Bond (Basic Chemicals) among others [2] - The adjustment rationale is based on the strong performance of the low price index (1.4%) and the resurgence of low volatility strategies, with a focus on stable or improving performance and reasonable premium rates [3] Improved Dual Low Strategy - The latest holdings feature new entries like Shangyin Convertible Bond (Bank) and Zhonghuan Convertible Bond (Environmental Protection) [4] - Adjustments were made due to the upward movement of the dual low index (0.4%), with a focus on stocks with improved performance or stable operations while avoiding those with high redemption progress [5] High Price High Elasticity Strategy - The latest holdings include new entries such as Wankai Convertible Bond (Basic Chemicals) and Shuiyang Convertible Bond (Beauty Care) [6] - The strategy's adjustments were influenced by the decline in high price index returns (-1.5%) and the need to manage redemption risks while maintaining a balanced industry allocation [7]

Core Points - The company, Henan Lantian Gas Co., Ltd., has announced a change in the sponsor representative for its convertible bond issuance project [1] - The original sponsor representatives were Liu Zhi and Liu Haiyan, with Liu Haiyan being replaced due to recent work changes [1] - The new sponsor representative, Jia Yin, will take over from Liu Haiyan starting October 21, 2025 [1] - The company expresses gratitude for Liu Haiyan's contributions during her tenure as a sponsor representative [2] - Jia Yin has a master's degree and has been involved in investment banking since 2013, with experience in various IPO and bond projects [4] Company Information - Henan Lantian Gas Co., Ltd. is engaged in the issuance of convertible bonds to unspecified investors [1] - The company is currently under the sponsorship of China Merchants Securities Co., Ltd. for this project [1] - The change in sponsor representatives is part of the ongoing compliance and supervision for the fundraising activities [1]

Group 1 - The company announced a cash dividend distribution of 0.4 yuan per share (including tax) for the first half of 2025, with no capital reserve conversion or bonus shares [2][3] - The dividend distribution plan was approved at the second extraordinary general meeting of shareholders held on September 15, 2025 [2] - The company will adjust the conversion price of its convertible bonds in accordance with the relevant regulations after the implementation of the dividend distribution [2][3] Group 2 - The company will suspend the conversion of its convertible bonds from September 22, 2025, until the record date for the dividend distribution [3] - Holders of convertible bonds can convert their bonds until September 19, 2025, to enjoy the dividend distribution [3] - The company will disclose the implementation announcement and the adjustment of the conversion price on September 23, 2025 [3] Group 3 - A board member, Wang Bo, submitted his resignation on September 16, 2025, which was accepted, ensuring the board remains compliant with legal requirements [5][6] - The company held a staff representative meeting on September 16, 2025, to elect Qiu Wei as the staff representative director, whose term aligns with the current board's term [5][7] - Qiu Wei has no prior shareholding in the company and meets all qualifications for the position [9]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the performance of the convertible bond of Blue Sky Gas, which saw a 2.0% decline in price to 137.002 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 60.91 million yuan and a conversion premium rate of 13.36% [1] - The convertible bond has a credit rating of "AA" and a maturity of 6 years, with interest rates increasing from 0.30% in the first year to 2.00% in the sixth year [1] - The conversion price for the bond is set at 8.38 yuan, with the conversion period starting on February 21, 2024 [1] Group 2 - Henan Blue Sky Gas Co., Ltd. was established in 2002 and is a major gas enterprise in Henan Province, primarily engaged in natural gas transmission and sales [2] - The company operates significant projects including the national West-to-East gas transmission lines, with a total pipeline length exceeding 700 kilometers [2] - For the first quarter of 2025, Blue Sky Gas reported a revenue of 1.3961 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.73%, and a net profit of 132 million yuan, down 34.86% year-on-year [2] - As of August 2025, the company has a relatively dispersed shareholder base with 27,910 shareholders and an average holding of 25.91 million yuan per person [2]

Core Points - Blue Sky Gas (605368) closed at 10.12 yuan on August 8, 2025, up 1.4% from last week's 9.98 yuan [1] - The company's current market capitalization is 7.232 billion yuan, ranking 11th out of 29 in the gas sector and 2358th out of 5151 in the A-share market [1] Company Announcements - Blue Sky Gas will pay the second-year interest on its convertible bonds, "Blue Sky Convertible Bonds," on August 15, 2025, with an interest amount of 0.50 yuan (including tax) per bond with a face value of 100 yuan [1] - The interest payment is for the period from August 15, 2024, to August 14, 2025, with a coupon rate of 0.50% [1][3] Convertible Bond Details - The bond's registration date for interest payment is August 14, 2025, and the ex-dividend date is August 15, 2025 [3] - The total issuance amount of the convertible bonds is 870 million yuan, with a face value of 100 yuan each [3] - The bonds are listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with a maturity period from August 15, 2023, to August 14, 2029, and a conversion price of 8.38 yuan per share [3]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement details the interest payment schedule for the convertible bonds issued by Henan Lantian Gas Co., Ltd., highlighting key dates and financial terms related to the bonds [2][4][11]. Summary by Sections Convertible Bond Issuance Overview - The convertible bonds were issued on August 15, 2023, with a maturity date of August 14, 2029 [2]. - The bonds have an initial conversion price of 10.13 CNY per share, which will be adjusted based on profit distribution [3][6]. Interest Payment Details - The interest payment for the second year will be 0.50% per annum, equating to 0.50 CNY for each bond with a face value of 100 CNY [10][11]. - The interest payment dates are set as follows: - Record date: August 14, 2025 - Ex-dividend date: August 15, 2025 - Payment date: August 15, 2025 [4][11]. Bond Characteristics - The total issuance amount of the convertible bonds is 870 million CNY (87,000,000 CNY) [5]. - The bonds are listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with the listing date being September 8, 2023 [5]. Tax Implications - Individual investors are subject to a 20% tax on interest income, resulting in a net interest payment of 0.40 CNY after tax for each bond [13]. - Foreign institutional investors are exempt from corporate income tax on interest income until December 31, 2025 [14]. Contact Information - The issuer is Henan Lantian Gas Co., Ltd., with contact details provided for further inquiries [15][16].