中金量化 | 智策2026：量化年度展望与择时模型系列 15:30-16:00 嘉宾： 薛军丨中国银河证券党委副书记、总裁 尹艳林丨第十四届全国政协委员 单志广丨国家信息中心信息化和产业发展部主任 章俊丨中国银河证券首席经济学家、研究院院长 张迪丨中国银河证券宏观首席分析师 杨超丨中国银河证券策略首席分析师 01 中国银河证券 | 主论坛 - 2026年度策略报告会 9:00-12:00 核心看点： 向新质生产力转型的关键期，人工智能将如何成为2026年核心驱动力？中国银河证券 年度策略会，宏观经济学者与行业专家将揭示哪些投资主线？AI、新能源、量子科技等前沿领域， 哪些机会值得重点关注？这场思想盛宴会否为您解锁"十五五"开局之年的财富密码？ 扫码预约 02 核心看点： 中金量化及ESG团队将权威解读2026年量化策略展望，前瞻布局。同时聚焦成交数据 中的择时信号与期权波动率的实战应用，分享前沿量化择时模型，助力精准把脉市场节奏。 嘉宾： 陈宜筠丨量化及ESG分析师 郑文才丨中金公司量化及ESG分析师 扫码预约 03 瑞银展望2026：世界准备好迎接10亿台机器人了吗？ 16:00-17:00 核心看点： 一 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese lidar market is showing significant head concentration, with Huawei and Hesai Technology together holding a market share of 73.9%, an increase of 8.7 percentage points from 65.2% in the first five months of the year, solidifying a "dual oligopoly" structure [1][6]. Group 1: Company Performance - Huawei ranks first with an installation volume of 643,800 units, achieving a market share of 41.1%. Its lidar is a core component of its smart automotive solutions, primarily supplied to the Hongmeng Intelligent Driving ecosystem and HI model partners, covering brands like AITO, Zhiji, and others [5]. - As of August, Huawei's QianKun lidar cumulative shipments exceeded 1 million units, with its intelligent driving system supporting 22 different models, including those capable of L3 level autonomous driving [5]. - Hesai Technology ranks second with an installation volume of 514,200 units and a market share of 32.8%. The company has established competitive barriers through self-developed chips and scaled production, becoming the first lidar manufacturer globally to exceed an annual production of 1 million units [6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The remaining market positions are relatively fragmented, with Suteng Juchuang holding a 19.5% market share and Tudatong at 6.7%, while other manufacturers collectively account for less than 1% [6]. - The overall market for lidar in China is expected to exceed 5 billion yuan by 2025 and grow to over 20 billion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 18.5%. The autonomous driving sector is projected to account for 45% of this market by 2030 [6]. - Analysts indicate that the differences in technological paths among leading companies are key drivers of the increasing concentration, with Huawei leveraging ecosystem integration and Hesai focusing on chip development and capacity expansion [6][7].

Market Overview - On October 15, A-shares saw a slight increase with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.1%, Shenzhen Component unchanged, and ChiNext Index up by 0.22%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.2805 trillion yuan, a decrease of 401 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - Over 3,200 stocks in the market experienced gains, with significant rebounds in innovative drug stocks and consumer sectors [1] Innovative Drug Sector - The innovative drug sector showed strong performance, with Guangsheng Tang hitting the daily limit up by 20%, and other companies like APT Pharma and Anglikang also reaching the limit up [3] - APT Pharma announced a share transfer agreement involving 14.61% of its shares at a price of 8.26 yuan per share, totaling 900 million yuan, changing its controlling shareholder [3] - The European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) annual meeting is set to take place from October 17 to 21 in Berlin, which is expected to showcase significant clinical research results and may lead to new business development (BD) opportunities for Chinese pharmaceutical companies [3][4] Automotive Sector - The automotive sector saw a notable rise, with companies like Hai Ma Auto and others hitting the daily limit up [5][6] - The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers reported that the production and sales of new energy vehicles exceeded 11 million units in the first three quarters, with a year-on-year growth of over 30% [6] New Listings and Performance - Xuan Zhu Bio-B debuted on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, opening at 29.46 HKD, a 153.97% increase from its issue price, with a market capitalization exceeding 15 billion HKD [10] - The company has a robust pipeline with over ten drug assets under development, focusing on digestive diseases, tumors, and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease [10][11] Consumer Sector - Mixue Group's stock rose nearly 8%, with a total market value approaching 170 billion HKD. The company has seen an 18% increase since October 8 [16] - The company reported a revenue of 14.87 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 39.3% [16] - Mixue Group is expanding its product line to include fresh beer, which is expected to enhance its market presence [17] Technology Sector - Black Sesame Intelligence saw its stock rise over 10%, with a market capitalization nearing 15 billion HKD. The company reported a 40.4% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of the year [19][21] - The company is collaborating with leading automotive brands to enhance its advanced driver-assistance systems, which are becoming crucial in consumer purchasing decisions [21]

Group 1 - Momenta is considering changing its IPO location from New York to Hong Kong due to ongoing tensions in US-China trade relations and threats from US lawmakers regarding the delisting of Chinese companies from US exchanges [2] - The regulatory approval for Momenta's US IPO, obtained in mid-2024, has expired as of June this year, which may have influenced the decision to consider a different listing location [2] - Momenta has not made any final decisions regarding its IPO plans, including the listing location, timing, fundraising scale, and valuation [2] Group 2 - Momenta is recognized as a leading supplier of advanced driver-assistance systems in China, with technology comparable to Tesla's autonomous driving technology [3] - The company has achieved a significant breakthrough with its self-developed driver assistance chip, which has been tested in vehicles and is competitive with industry-leading chips from Nvidia and Qualcomm [3] - As of April this year, Momenta has partnered with over 130 vehicle models and various automotive brands, including Nissan, BMW, and Volkswagen, and is also collaborating with major investors like Tencent and Toyota [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the autonomous driving industry [1] Core Insights - The autonomous driving industry is at a pivotal point of capability evolution, with advancements in AI and high-performance computing driving the development of autonomous driving solutions [5][8] - The report identifies that the differentiation in autonomous driving capabilities among automakers is diminishing as the industry matures, leading to a focus on safety features and user experience [5][8] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report outlines the current state of the autonomous driving industry, highlighting the convergence of technology paths and the need for enhanced safety features as the industry transitions to higher levels of automation [5][6] 2. Corporate Strategy and Organization - Companies are adjusting their organizational structures and research focuses to improve R&D efficiency and commercialization pace, with a notable shift towards AI applications [6][52] - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining product strength and long-term operational capabilities in a price-sensitive competitive landscape [6][52] 3. Technical Capabilities - **Sensors**: The report discusses the parallel development of multiple sensing solutions, including LiDAR, cameras, and radar, to meet safety and reliability requirements [7] - **Computing Power**: It highlights the establishment of cloud-based computing centers for model training and algorithm iteration, with Tesla leading at over 75 Eflops and some Chinese automakers achieving around 10 Eflops [7] - **Vehicle-Cloud Models**: The report notes a shift from rule-based to data-driven models, enhancing decision-making capabilities through the integration of multimodal data [7] 4. Consumer Perception - The report indicates that autonomous driving products are becoming increasingly recognized by consumers, with features such as parking assistance and safety enhancements being continuously optimized [7][49] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on automakers making significant advancements in R&D and functional deployment, including Tesla, Xpeng, Li Auto, NIO, and Xiaomi, as well as leading third-party solution providers like Momenta and Horizon Robotics [8][50]