Macro and Strategy - April financial data indicates a weaker than expected performance, with new social financing at 1.16 trillion yuan, below the expected 1.26 trillion yuan, and new RMB loans at 280 billion yuan, significantly lower than the expected 764 billion yuan [6][7] - The M2 money supply grew by 8.0% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 7.5%, reflecting a shift towards government financing dominance while private sector credit remains weak [6][7] - The report highlights a significant decline in new loans, with April's new credit at 280 billion yuan, a drop of 450 billion yuan year-on-year, marking a historical low for the period [7] Industry and Company Analysis Jerry Holdings (002353.SZ) - The company is a leading oilfield equipment manufacturer and service provider, with projected revenues of 9.44 billion yuan in 2010 and 133.55 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of approximately 20.83% [12] - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 26.27 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 7.03% [12] - The company has a strong competitive position in high-end equipment, maintaining a leading market share in domestic and international markets [13] XCMG Machinery (000425.SZ) - The company reported a revenue of 916.60 billion yuan in 2024, a slight decline of 1.28%, while net profit increased by 12.20% to 59.76 billion yuan [14] - The improvement in profitability is attributed to an optimized product structure and increased overseas revenue [15] - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in the construction machinery sector, with domestic excavator sales projected to grow [16] Hangcha Group (603298.SH) - The company achieved a revenue of 164.86 billion yuan in 2024, a growth of 1.15%, with net profit increasing by 17.86% [17] - The rise in profitability is driven by higher margins from overseas business and a reduction in raw material costs [18] - The company is expanding its international presence, with significant growth in its smart logistics segment [18] TBEA Co., Ltd. (600089.SH) - The company reported a revenue of 978.7 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 41.3 billion yuan, reflecting a significant decline due to losses in the polysilicon segment [19] - The company is focusing on expanding its transmission and transformation business, with a notable increase in overseas market contracts [19] - The polysilicon business is under pressure due to price declines, prompting the company to reduce production [20] First Solar (FSLR.O) - The company achieved a revenue of 42.1 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 27%, with a net profit of 12.9 billion yuan, up 56% [22] - The company has a strong order backlog, with 66.1 GW of orders as of Q1 2025, indicating robust future demand [23] - Despite uncertainties in U.S. policy, the long-term outlook remains positive due to strong demand for solar energy [24] JD Group (09618.HK) - The company reported a revenue of 301.1 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a growth of 16% year-on-year, driven by strong performance in retail and logistics [25] - The non-GAAP net profit was 12.8 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 4.2% [26] - The company is leveraging AI technology across its retail and supply chain operations to enhance efficiency [27] Mindray Medical (300760.SZ) - The company reported a revenue of 367.26 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 116.68 billion yuan, reflecting a slight increase [28] - The in-vitro diagnostics segment has become the largest business unit, with significant growth in international markets [29] - The company is expected to continue its strong performance in the medical device sector, with a focus on innovation and market expansion [30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company [6][31]. Core Views - The company is experiencing steady progress in its power transmission and transformation, as well as energy businesses, while the profitability of its polysilicon segment is under pressure [1][4]. - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected to be 978.7 billion yuan, remaining flat year-on-year, with a significant decline in net profit due to substantial losses in the polysilicon business [1][9]. - The report anticipates a gradual reduction in losses from the polysilicon business and a steady increase in coal production, leading to an adjusted profit forecast of 62.0 billion yuan for 2025, with further increases expected in 2026 and 2027 [4][31]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 23.38 billion yuan, down 1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.6 billion yuan, down 20% year-on-year [1][9]. - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 18.1%, a decrease of 9.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 3.7%, down 10.7 percentage points year-on-year [1][9]. Business Segments - The revenue from the power transmission and transformation segment reached 429.9 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 16% year-on-year, while the polysilicon segment saw a revenue decline of 34% to 185.3 billion yuan [2][20]. - The company’s polysilicon production in 2024 was 198,800 tons, a 4% increase year-on-year, but the average selling price dropped to 39,000 yuan per ton, down 5.7 thousand yuan per ton year-on-year [3][21]. Market Outlook - The report highlights the ongoing expansion in the overseas market for power transmission products, with a significant increase in export contracts, which reached 1.2 billion USD in 2024, up over 70% year-on-year [2][20]. - The coal production for 2024 exceeded 74 million tons, with over 25% of sales coming from outside the region, indicating a strong market presence [24][27]. Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 90.99 billion yuan in 2025, a decrease of 7% year-on-year, with net profits projected to rise to 62.0 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 49.8% [5][30]. - The report provides a detailed forecast for 2026 and 2027, estimating net profits of 78.0 billion yuan and 94.1 billion yuan, respectively, indicating continued growth [4][31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company [6][31]. Core Views - The company is expected to see steady growth in coal production, gradual reduction in losses from the polysilicon business, and sustained investment in the power grid, leading to an adjusted profit forecast of 6.2 billion yuan for 2025, with new profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 at 7.8 billion and 9.4 billion yuan respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 49.8%, 25.9%, and 20.6% [4][31]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 23.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1%, and a net profit of 1.6 billion yuan, down 20% year-on-year. The overall gross margin was 20.6%, a decrease of 2.8 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 7.1%, down 3.0 percentage points year-on-year [1][9]. - For the full year 2024, the company achieved revenue of 97.87 billion yuan, flat year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.13 billion yuan, down 61% year-on-year, primarily due to significant losses in the polysilicon business [9][30]. Business Segments - The company’s revenue from various segments in 2024 included: - Power transmission and transformation products: 42.99 billion yuan (+16% year-on-year) - New energy products and engineering: 18.53 billion yuan (-34% year-on-year) - Coal: 19.26 billion yuan (+6% year-on-year) - Power generation: 5.6 billion yuan (+31% year-on-year) - New materials: 5.61 billion yuan (+8% year-on-year) [2][20]. - The polysilicon business faced significant pressure, with prices dropping below production costs, leading to a production volume of 198,800 tons (+4% year-on-year) and a sales volume of 199,200 tons (-2% year-on-year) in 2024 [3][21]. Market Outlook - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 105 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7%, with a gross margin projected to improve to 20% [27][31]. - The coal production is anticipated to steadily increase, reaching 120 million tons by 2026, significantly boosting revenue from the coal business [28][31].