2026 年 1 月 8 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【宏观】债市开年如何破局？——《央行观察》系列第十三篇 此前债市担忧的三大利空已部分消化，实际影响低于市场预期。但考虑到政策脉冲向 上，经济和股市迎来"开门红"，可能对债市情绪构成持续打压。有利因素也不可忽 视，政府债供给期限对利率走势无强解释力，且除 500 亿元国债买入信号外，央行有 意愿也有能力呵护流动性。债市整体前景并不悲观，策略上当前应重视配置，交易性 机会需耐心等待。风险提示：流动性对冲不及预期导致资金面意外波动，重大项目开 工不及预期影响经济开门红，海外突发黑天鹅事件。 12 月综合季节性特征、票据利率走势等因素，预计新增贷款在 0.8~1 万亿左右，贷 款增速落在 6.3%附近。社融层面，政府债发行进入尾声，对社融增长贡献度下降， 年末信贷季节性放量、贷款核销加大等对社融读数支撑作用显现，社融增速或落于 8.3%一线。货币方面，年末财政开支强度加大对一般存款形成回补，M2 增速或稳中 有增；春节错位叠加较高基数影响，M1 增速预计相对一般。 | | A 股市场 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 今 日 聚 焦 【宏观】债市开年如何破局？——《央行观察》系列第十三篇 此前债市担忧的三大利空已部分消化，实际影响低于市场预期。但考虑到政策脉冲向上，经济和股市迎来"开 门红"，可能对债市情绪构成持续打压。有利因素也不可忽视，政府债供给期限对利率走势无强解释力，且除 500亿元国债买入信号外，央行有意愿也有能力呵护流动性。债市整体前景并不悲观，策略上当前应重视配 置，交易性机会需耐心等待。 （赵格格/王佳雯）2026-01-07 您可点击今日推送内容的第1条查看 展望未来，政策将聚焦反内卷和老旧产能淘汰，叠加电石、氯碱等高耗能行业盈利能力触底，成本端竞争 加剧有望加速老旧装置退出，将有助于行业供给的收缩和集中度的提高，同时加速推进装置大 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 商业模式与核心优势：模型调用规模化增长驱动收入成长，2025年收入预计延续高速增长趋势 公司商业模式以自研通用大模型为核心，通过API调用、模型定制、解决方案输出及自有AI应用等方式实 现商业化。一方面，公司持续加大研发投入，强化模型训练、推理效率及多模态能力，构筑技术与数据壁 垒；另一方面，通过开放式平台模式，降低下游客户接入门槛，提升模型调用规模与生态粘性。 综合来看，公司核心优势包括： 1）通用多模态模型能力持续迭代，技术积累较深；2）B端与C端并行的产品与商业化路径，应用场景丰 富；3）平台化、可扩展的商业模式，有利于规模化增长；4）管理及研发团队具备 AI 领域长期经验，执 行与迭代能力较强。 风险提示： 技术风险； ...

Group 1 - The core message of Xi Jinping's speech emphasizes the need for comprehensive reform and the promotion of Chinese-style modernization, aiming for a solid foundation for the "14th Five-Year Plan" and a good start for the "15th Five-Year Plan" [1] - Hubei's GDP reached 13,543.49 billion yuan in Q1, with a year-on-year growth of 6.3%, highlighting the province's commitment to achieving the goals of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2] - The Sichuan provincial government aims to leverage the dual-city economic circle construction to enhance its strategic positioning in the national context while planning for the "15th Five-Year Plan" [2] Group 2 - Guangdong is focusing on enhancing its free trade zone's reform and innovation capabilities, aligning with high-standard international rules to optimize its economic layout [3] - The integration of education, technology, and talent development is emphasized, with institutions like Huazhong University of Science and Technology aligning their academic programs with national strategic needs [6] - The development of a modern industrial system supported by advanced manufacturing is prioritized, with a focus on artificial intelligence and biotechnology [4][5] Group 3 - The establishment of health service stations in Zhejiang reflects the commitment to improving public health and ensuring equitable access to healthcare services [7] - The collaboration between eastern and western regions is exemplified by the potato cultivation project in Gansu, which has significantly increased local incomes [7] - Inner Mongolia's initiatives to build elderly care facilities demonstrate a focus on improving living standards and addressing the needs of vulnerable populations [7]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with a slight recovery in Q1 2025 driven by growth in digital culture business despite ongoing challenges in the real estate sector [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.17 billion, net profit of 130 million, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 110 million, representing year-on-year declines of 22.6%, 22.3%, and 12.7% respectively [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 260 million, net profit of 2 million, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 1 million, with year-on-year changes of 15.4%, -20.2%, and -51.8% respectively [1]. Business Structure and Growth - The company optimized its business structure, with revenue from architectural design and cost consulting at 950 million and 150 million respectively in 2024, showing declines of 15.0% and 19.4% year-on-year [2]. - The gross margins for architectural design and cost consulting were 36.4% and 37.9%, with year-on-year changes of +1.4 and -4.3 percentage points [2]. - The establishment of a new subsidiary, Huayang Culture, aims to enhance the digital culture segment, contributing to revenue growth in Q1 2025 [2]. Profitability and Expenses - The company's gross margin and net margin for 2024 were 35.1% and 12.4%, with year-on-year changes of +2.87 and -0.19 percentage points [3]. - In Q1 2025, the gross margin and net margin were 19.5% and 0.8%, with year-on-year changes of +1.88 and -0.29 percentage points [3]. - The increase in financial expense ratio due to the capitalization of convertible bond interest and the completion of the headquarters building negatively impacted profit growth [3]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on digital transformation by leveraging AI technology, expanding applications in design processes, and developing a comprehensive micro-drama platform [4]. - The digital culture business is seen as a new growth point, with a team of nearly 100 people covering key aspects of content, production, and copyright operations [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 135 million and 145 million respectively, reflecting reductions of 40% and 42% [4]. - A new forecast for 2027 projects a net profit of 151 million, with expectations of recovery in traditional business as the real estate market stabilizes and growth in digital culture business [4].