导致这一现象的原因错综复杂。从市场供求角度看，投资者对美股市场前景持续看好，大量资金涌入美股 ETF，使得二级 市场对 ETF 的需求远超供给，推动价格不断上涨。而 QDII 额度限制、外汇额度紧张以及交易时间差异等因素，进一步加 剧了市场失衡。国家外汇管理局数据显示，截至 11 月底，全市场发放的 QDII 额度为 1678 亿美元，近半年来未获批新额 度，基金公司为应对额度紧张，纷纷暂停一级市场申购或下调申购额度，这使得投资者只能在二级市场高价买入，溢价问 题愈发严重 。 近期，美股市场走势牵动着全球投资者的心。在经历了一系列跌宕起伏后，美股不仅收复了年内失地，部分指数更是逼近 历史高位。然而，就在市场一片火热之际，美股 ETF 却接连发出溢价 "预警"，这无疑给狂热的市场情绪泼了一盆冷水， 也让投资者对美股后市走向充满疑虑。 自 2025 年开年以来，美股市场便处于复杂多变的局势中。特朗普的关税政策如同一颗投入平静湖面的巨石，激起千层 浪，市场在担忧经济衰退的情绪中大幅波动。不过，随着中美日内瓦经贸会谈取得积极成果，双方移除了多数边际增加的 关税，这一利好消息犹如一剂强心针，迅速提振了市场信心。标普 5 ...

Market Performance - On Monday, US stock markets experienced a dramatic reversal, initially opening lower due to Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating, with the S&P 500 index dropping over 1% and the Nasdaq falling more than 1.5% [1] - However, by the end of the trading day, all three major indices closed slightly higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.32% at 42,792.07 points, the S&P 500 up 0.09% at 5,963.6 points, marking six consecutive days of gains, and the Nasdaq up 0.02% at 19,215.46 points [1] ETF Performance - Various ETFs, including the Nasdaq Technology ETF, Nasdaq ETF, Dow Jones ETF, and S&P 500 ETF, saw increases in value [2] - Specific ETFs showed notable daily gains, with the Nasdaq Technology ETF rising by 1.46% and the S&P 500 ETF increasing by 1.20% [3] Retail Investor Activity - Retail investors are driving a record influx of capital into the US stock market, with net purchases reaching a record $4.1 billion as of May 19, marking the first time this figure surpassed $4 billion before noon [4] - Retail trading volume accounted for 36% of total trading, setting a new peak since April [4] Major Stock Movements - Significant net purchases were observed in popular stocks, with Tesla seeing a net buy of $675 million and Palantir receiving $439 million [4] Market Sentiment and Warnings - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, issued a warning about high risks in the credit market, suggesting that optimism may be misplaced and that the market could face significant downturns [5] - Notable investors, including Warren Buffett and Li Lu, have reduced their positions in US stocks during the first quarter [5] Valuation Trends - The valuations of the "Tech Seven" giants have dropped to a seven-year low, with their forward price-to-earnings ratio at 28 times, which is a 43% premium over the S&P 493 index's 20 times [5] - This adjustment has led to the lowest NTM valuation multiples for Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla since 2018 [5] Future Outlook - Goldman Sachs strategists believe that lighter short-term positions and cheaper valuations could lead to a rebound in the stock prices of the Tech Seven, although risks remain due to ongoing antitrust investigations and competitive pressures [6] - Dimon cautioned that earnings growth expectations for S&P 500 constituents are likely to decline from approximately 12% at the beginning of the year to zero growth in six months, which would also impact price-to-earnings ratios [6]