商业化持续拓展，早研产品释放积极数据 泽璟制药-U(688266) 泽璟制药 2025 年半年报点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 彭娉(分析师) | 021-23185619 | pengping@gtht.com | S0880525040080 | | 余文心(分析师) | 021-38676666 | yuwenxin@gtht.com | S0880525040111 | | 廖博闻(研究助理) | 021-23187268 | liaobowen@gtht.com | S0880125042239 | 本报告导读： 公司产品放量加速，研发成果密集兑现，核心管线布局收获期，早研管线稳步挺进， 有望进一步提升竞争力，维持"增持"评级。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 386 | 533 ...

Macro Strategy - The "urban renewal" initiative is expected to achieve a total investment of at least 4.48 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, averaging nearly 900 billion yuan annually. The main sources of potential demand will come from the renovation of urban villages, old residential areas, and urban infrastructure upgrades [1][18] - The renovation of old residential areas and urban infrastructure is projected to contribute at least 2.35 trillion yuan in new investment during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, supported by over 470 billion yuan in central budget investments and special bonds [1][18] - The urban village renovation is estimated to contribute 2.13 trillion yuan in new investment during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, assuming a "half-demolition, half-renovation" approach for the remaining self-built houses [1][18] Economic Data - The actual GDP growth rate for Q2 was 5.2%, with a cumulative growth of 5.3% for the first half of the year, indicating a strong performance compared to the previous year. However, the nominal GDP growth rate was lower at 3.9% [2][20] - Consumer spending showed a year-on-year increase of 5.0% in the first half, driven by the "old-for-new" policy, while real estate sales showed resilience compared to the previous year [2][20] - Industrial production in June saw a year-on-year increase of 6.8%, supported by strong external demand, particularly in the equipment manufacturing sector [2][21] Company Analysis - Zhongkuang Resources (002738) has adjusted its profit forecast for 2025-2027 due to pressure from falling lithium prices and temporary losses in copper smelting, projecting net profits of 4.0/9.6/19.3 billion yuan [10] - Li Ning (02331.HK) anticipates challenges in sales due to deepening discounts and increased expenses, with revised net profit forecasts of 23.1/26.0/29.3 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [10] - 361 Degrees (01361.HK) is expanding its superstore network and maintaining industry-leading growth, with net profit forecasts of 13.0/14.6/16.2 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [11] - Zhongrong Electric (301031) expects continued high growth in its electric vehicle-related products, projecting net profits of 3.4/4.8/6.3 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [12] - Huanxin Cement (600801) reported a significant increase in Q2 profits, driven by improvements in domestic cement profitability and overseas operations, with revised net profit forecasts of 28.8/32.2/35.6 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company's performance meets expectations, with a focus on the positive progress of key pipelines [5] - The company reported a revenue of 533 million RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 37.91%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -138 million RMB [7] - The company has successfully commercialized existing products and is advancing two products towards market launch [7] - The company is developing multiple innovative drugs with promising clinical trial results expected to be announced in 2025 [7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 864 million RMB, 1.471 billion RMB, and 2.387 billion RMB respectively, with growth rates of 62.12%, 70.23%, and 62.33% [6][8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be -11 million RMB in 2025, followed by 313 million RMB in 2026 and 734 million RMB in 2027 [6][8] - The company’s gross margin is expected to remain high, with estimates of 95.69% in 2025 and 94.46% in 2027 [9]

Group 1: Shanghai Jahwa - Shanghai Jahwa is confident about achieving high double-digit GMV growth for its core brands during the 618 shopping festival [1] - The employee stock ownership plan aims to enhance competitiveness, reduce turnover rates, and foster a sense of ownership among employees [1] - The company has made strategic adjustments in the past six months, including organizational design, talent development, and cultural initiatives [1] - E-commerce strategies have been refined, including inventory management, pricing adjustments, organizational restructuring, and product iterations [1] - The Yuze B5 series is planned to be a key product line on JD.com [1] - The company aims for double-digit revenue growth this year and to turn profits around [1] - The long-term profit recovery is expected to follow a timeline of 1-2 years for revenue growth, 2-3 years for profit improvement, and 3-5 years to meet profit margin targets [1] - The main brand Yuze is positioned as a skin barrier repair expert, while Liushen is expanding its usage scenarios and target demographics [1] Group 2: Zai Lab - Zai Lab introduced its pipeline drugs ZG006, ZG005, and ZGGS18, highlighting their latest developments and future plans for the next 3-5 years [2] - ZG006 is the world's first DLL3-expressing tumor tri-specific antibody, which has received clinical trial approvals from NMPA and FDA, showing promising early efficacy [2] - ZG005 is one of the first drugs in clinical research targeting the same pathway, with multiple clinical studies underway [2] - ZGGS18 has completed the dose escalation in Phase I trials in China and is currently in Phase I/II clinical trials [2] - The company plans to continuously explore the commercialization potential of its existing and upcoming products to achieve sustained revenue growth [2] - Zai Lab also discussed the sales progress and future expectations for recombinant human thrombin and the approval status of recombinant human thyroid-stimulating hormone [2] Group 3: Company Overview - Shenzhen Zhongou Ruibo Investment Management Co., Ltd. was established in 2007 and is one of the earliest private equity fund management companies in China [3] - The company focuses on secondary market securities investment and has launched over 50 private equity products in collaboration with top domestic financial institutions [3] - It obtained private fund manager qualifications in 2014 and launched its first overseas fund in 2016 [3] - The name "Rabbit Fund" reflects the company's investment culture of risk management, emphasizing the importance of risk prevention and management [3] - The investment philosophy is centered on growing alongside great companies and adapting strategies to respect market trends [3] - The company has received numerous accolades for its performance, including the "Morningstar Award" and "Golden Bull Award" [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [5] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 reached 533 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.91%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was -138 million yuan, a reduction in losses by 50.52% [1] - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 168 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54.87%, with a net profit of -28.26 million yuan, a reduction in losses by 28.45% [1] - The clinical trial data for the drug ZG006 exceeded expectations, with a 66.7% objective response rate (ORR) in patients receiving doses of 10 mg or higher [2] - ZG005, a PD-1/TIGIT bispecific antibody, shows potential as a first-in-class (FIC) drug, with promising efficacy data in cervical cancer patients [3] - The company has multiple commercialized or near-commercialized products, with a reasonable pipeline that is expected to yield significant clinical and commercial advancements [4] Financial Performance - The company's revenue projections for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to 820 million yuan and 1.20 billion yuan, respectively, with a forecasted revenue of 1.60 billion yuan for 2027 [5] - The net profit estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to -20 million yuan and 121 million yuan, respectively, with a projected net profit of 282 million yuan for 2027 [5] - The company reported a total market capitalization of approximately 28.48 billion yuan [6] Clinical Pipeline - ZG006 has completed the dose escalation phase in patients with advanced small cell lung cancer or neuroendocrine cancer, with a new clinical trial set to begin in the U.S. in September 2024 [2] - ZG005 is undergoing multiple clinical trials for various solid tumors, with expectations for several indications to reach proof of concept (POC) this year [3] - The company currently has two marketed products and two products under review, with several others in clinical stages [4]