证券研究报告 可选消费 服务消费扩容提质再迎政策利好 华泰研究 2026 年 1 月 29 日│中国内地 动态点评 挖掘潜力赛道，首提情绪价值 《工作方案》意在通过优化服务供给、推进先行先试及创新消费场景，进一 步挖掘服务消费新动能，支撑经济高质量发展。相较此前相关政策，本次《工 作方案》颗粒度进一步细化，首次系统性提出"情绪式、体验式"服务，支 持相关职业分类及新场景建设；针对演出及体育赛事，明确要求完善票务发 行及退票制度，推动高质量户外运动目的地建设。我们认为相关举措旨在鼓 励新消费形态、规范市场秩序，有望催化 IP 及体验类消费热度。 交通文旅融合，出行链相关领域有望受益 《工作方案》明确提出开发银发旅游专列、邮轮游艇及夜游船提质；研究稳 妥扩大免签范围，培育"购在中国"品牌，提升入境消费便利度。此外，方 案特别提及支持冰雪服务相关消费载体建设，支持符合条件的地方创新打造 多元化冰雪消费场景。在交通+旅游深度融合、优质文旅供给持续涌现背景 下，细分文旅赛道（银发/入境/冰雪/优质传统目的地）及出行链相关领域（酒 店/免税等）有望迎来景气度上行。 鼓励主动创新探索、提升优质供给支持力度 《工作方案》强调 ...

Group 1: Fixed Income Strategy - The central bank has restarted bond purchases, indicating potential short-term opportunities in the bond market [7] - In October, most bond yields declined, with significant decreases in credit spreads and default amounts [7] - The report suggests a structural shift in government policy focus from traditional infrastructure to urban renewal and related service industries [7] Group 2: Food and Beverage Industry - The food and beverage sector's fund holding ratio decreased to 4.73% in Q3 2025, indicating a decline in heavy investment [13][14] - The liquor sector remains the most heavily weighted, but the holding ratio for major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye has decreased [16] - The report highlights a general reduction in fund holdings across various sub-sectors, including soft drinks and snacks [15][16] Group 3: Banking Sector - Changshu Bank reported a revenue of 9.05 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 8.15% [17] - The bank's non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 0.76%, with a significant reduction in asset impairment losses [17][18] - The report indicates a slight improvement in loan growth, particularly in personal business loans, although overall retail credit demand remains under pressure [18] Group 4: Potash Industry - Yara International's revenue increased by 55.8% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by both volume and price increases in potash [22] - The average selling price of potash rose to 2,507 yuan/ton, reflecting a 27.9% increase year-on-year [22] - The company is expanding its production capacity, with new projects expected to come online soon, contributing to sustained high demand in the potash market [24][25] Group 5: Oilfield Services - CNOOC Services reported a significant increase in net profit, with a year-on-year growth of 32.09% in the first three quarters of 2025 [28] - The utilization rate of drilling platforms has improved, contributing to higher revenue and profit margins [29] - The report emphasizes the company's strategic shift towards high-return projects and the optimization of its business structure [30] Group 6: Chemical Industry - Hualu Hengsheng's revenue in Q3 2025 was 7.79 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 5.1% [26] - The company experienced a slight decrease in net profit, attributed to market supply and demand changes for its main products [26][27] - The report notes that the company is focusing on cost control and efficiency improvements amid fluctuating raw material prices [27]

Market Overview - U.S. inflation remains stable, with September CPI rising 0.3% month-on-month, lower than the previous 0.4%[6] - Core CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, also below the previous 0.3%[6] - Year-on-year CPI and core CPI both rose to 3.0%, slightly above previous values of 2.9% and 3.1% respectively[6] Stock Market Performance - U.S. stock markets surged, with the Dow Jones up 1.01% to 47,207 points, S&P 500 rising 0.79% to 6,791 points, and Nasdaq increasing 1.15% to 23,204 points[9] - Chinese A-shares rose significantly, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.71% to 3,950 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index up 2.02%[16] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index increased by 0.74%, recovering above 26,000 points[11] Commodity and Forex Market - Oil prices ended a three-week decline, with WTI crude oil down 0.5% to $61.5 per barrel, but up 6.9% for the week[27] - Gold prices fell 0.2% to $4,118.4 per ounce, ending a nine-week upward trend[27] - The U.S. dollar index remained stable, with the onshore RMB at 7.123 against the dollar[26] Fixed Income Market - U.S. short-term Treasury yields fell slightly, with the 2-year yield at 3.48% and the 10-year yield at 4.00%[30] - Market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting[5] Key Economic Indicators - The U.S. manufacturing PMI for October showed strong growth, indicating resilience in the manufacturing sector[30] - Moody's adjusted France's rating outlook to negative, reflecting economic concerns[6]