中邮证券近日发布核电产业报告：IAEA连续5年上调核电装机预期，2023年底的三倍核能宣言(2050年 装机1200GW)从22国扩充到33国及大型非核能领域企业；根据WNA2025年11月的预测，根据目前政府 的目标，2050年全球核能装机1363GW，若考虑拟议等情况，总装机将达到1428GW。 以下为研究报告摘要： 全球核能雄心持续超预期——三倍宣言不断扩充且被超越：IAEA连续5年上调核电装机预期，2023年底 的三倍核能宣言(2050年装机1200GW)从22国扩充到33国及大型非核能领域企业；根据WNA2025年11月 的预测，根据目前政府的目标，2050年全球核能装机1363GW，若考虑拟议等情况，总装机将达到 1428GW。 全球核能复兴在政府层面具有高度确定性：(1)欧洲弃核国家不断减少，德国放弃反核立场(2)三大核电 事故国：美国在2050年装机进一步上调100GW至400GW，日本和俄罗斯均大力发展核电(3)中国、印 度、埃及等积极发展核电。 核能进一步超预期的因素：多领域应用，包括核能供热、核能(非核电)制氢等。 支撑雄心的固有安全和可持续发展(4代核电)：(1)出现任何事故，核反应堆 ...

证券研究报告 核电产业报告1： ——全球核电复兴下的4代核电的投资机会 行业投资评级：强大于市|维持 中邮证券研究所 电新团队苏千叶/杨 帅波/盛炜 中邮证券 1 1 发布时间：2026-01-06 请参阅附注免责声明 2 ➢ 全球核能雄心持续超预期——三倍宣言不断扩充且被超越 ：IAEA连续5年上调核电装机预期，2023年底的三倍核能宣 言（2050年装机1200GW）从22国扩充到33国及大型非核能领域企业；根据WNA2025年11月的预测，根据目前政府 的目标，2050年全球核能装机1363GW，若考虑拟议等情况，总装机将达到1428GW。 ➢ 全球核能复兴在政府层面具有高度确定性：（1）欧洲弃核国家不断减少，德国放弃反核立场（2）三大核电事故国：美 国在2050年装机进一步上调100GW至400GW，日本和俄罗斯均大力发展核电（3）中国、印度、埃及等积极发展核电。 ➢ 核能进一步超预期的因素：多领域应用，包括核能供热、核能（非核电）制氢等。 ➢ 支撑雄心的固有安全和可持续发展（ 4代核电）：（1）出现任何事故，核反应堆不依靠外部操作，而仅靠自然物理规律 都能够趋向安全状态；（2）快堆可以把铀资源利用率 ...

Group 1 - The United States remains the global leader in nuclear power generation with a total output of 781 billion kilowatt-hours, accounting for 18.9% of the national total generation, supported by an installed capacity of 96.95 gigawatts [1] - China ranks second with 58 operational units and a capacity of 60.88 gigawatts, but is significantly expanding its nuclear fleet with 27 units under construction, which raises concerns among Western observers [3] - The stagnation of nuclear power development in the U.S. is attributed to the high costs and long investment cycles associated with nuclear projects, as exemplified by the Vogtle units 3 and 4, which exceeded $30 billion in costs [3][5] Group 2 - China's nuclear expansion is driven by its strong industrial manufacturing capabilities, achieving a 100% localization rate for units like the Hualong One, reducing the unit cost to approximately 13,000 RMB per kilowatt [5] - The construction timeline for nuclear power plants in China has been shortened to 4 to 5 years, contrasting with the lengthy approval processes in the U.S. [5] - The operational efficiency of the aging U.S. nuclear fleet, with an average capacity factor exceeding 92%, highlights the effectiveness of asset management despite the age of the plants [5] Group 3 - The U.S. nuclear sector is shifting focus from large reactors to developing small modular reactors (SMRs), with projects like TerraPower's sodium-cooled fast reactor in Wyoming representing a strategic pivot [8] - While China has advantages in engineering, it faces challenges in original innovation and commercializing advanced nuclear technologies, such as high-temperature gas-cooled reactors and molten salt reactors [10] - The U.S. is forming exclusive nuclear supply chain alliances, which may pose risks for China, particularly regarding access to high-performance nuclear fuel and control chips amid geopolitical tensions [10][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" [6] Core Insights - China's 2 MW liquid fuel thorium-based molten salt experimental reactor (TMSR) has achieved the first in-core thorium-uranium conversion, marking a significant step towards commercialization and reducing reliance on imported uranium [1][19] - The global thorium molten salt reactor market is expected to exceed $80 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 25% from 2025 to 2030, driven by strong demand in industrial high-temperature processes and hydrogen production [2][43] - The TMSR technology offers significant advantages in resource utilization and safety compared to traditional uranium-based reactors, with the potential to enhance energy security for China [38][39] Summary by Sections 1. Special Research - The TMSR has established a unique research platform for thorium-uranium cycles, which can efficiently utilize thorium resources and reduce dependence on imported uranium [1][19] - The molten salt reactor (MSR) is recognized as the most disruptive technology among the fourth-generation nuclear reactors, offering substantial benefits in resource utilization and safety [1][20][38] 2. Market Review - From November 1 to November 15, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.9%, while the public utility index increased by 1.79%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [3][47] 3. Market Information Tracking - In November 2025, the average transaction price of electricity in Jiangsu was 355.95 RMB/MWh, reflecting an 8.96% decrease from the benchmark price [4] - The average price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region was reported at 698 RMB/ton, showing an increase of 18 RMB/ton [14] 4. Industry Dynamics - The National Energy Administration is promoting the integrated development of renewable energy, emphasizing the need for multi-dimensional development and collaboration with various industries [11] - The State Council's white paper on carbon peak and carbon neutrality highlights significant energy efficiency improvements, with a cumulative reduction of 11.6% in energy consumption per unit of GDP during the 14th Five-Year Plan [12] 5. Investment Portfolio and Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in the thorium molten salt reactor technology, including Baotou Steel, Shanghai Construction, and Shanghai Electric, which have made significant technological advancements [46] - Recommendations for public utilities include monitoring coal-fired power companies and hydropower firms, as well as nuclear power companies for their long-term growth potential [14]

Core Viewpoint - The development of fourth-generation nuclear power is expected to encounter a critical opportunity period during the "14th Five-Year Plan," driven by three main factors [1] Group 1: Key Drivers - The search for alternatives to "water" as a coolant in nuclear power technology aims to overcome resource limitations of coastal sites [1] - The exploration of substitutes for "uranium-235" as fuel addresses China's issues with poor uranium resources [1] - The expansion of decarbonization technologies in non-electric sectors seeks clean alternative fuel solutions for high-quality industrial heating and long-distance shipping, which are challenging to decarbonize [1] Group 2: Technological Focus - There is optimism surrounding the accelerated development and validation of fourth-generation nuclear technologies, particularly sodium-cooled fast reactors, thorium molten salt reactors, and high-temperature gas-cooled reactors during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company,佳电股份, is currently not involved in advanced nuclear energy technologies, despite the strategic developments in the industry led by 哈电集团, which includes research in thorium molten salt reactors and other fourth-generation nuclear technologies [1] Group 1: Company Developments - 佳电股份 has stated that it has not yet entered the field of advanced nuclear energy technologies or supply [1] - The company will continue to monitor advancements in cutting-edge nuclear energy technologies and is prepared to develop market opportunities for engineering equipment [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - 哈电集团 is actively engaged in strategic layouts and research in various advanced nuclear technologies, including thorium molten salt reactors, sodium-cooled fast reactors, and lead-bismuth fast reactors [1] - The thorium molten salt reactor technology is still in the research phase and has not yet been converted into engineering applications [1]

Core Viewpoint - Jiadian Co., Ltd. (000922.SZ) has not yet entered the advanced nuclear energy technology sector, despite its major shareholder Harbin Electric Group's strategic investments in various fourth-generation nuclear technologies [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Jiadian Co., Ltd. is currently not involved in the business or supply of advanced nuclear technologies such as thorium molten salt reactors, sodium-cooled fast reactors, and lead-bismuth fast reactors [1] - As of the end of the third quarter, Harbin Electric Group holds a 36.94% stake in Jiadian, making it the largest and controlling shareholder of the company [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - Harbin Electric Group has made strategic layouts and explorations in cutting-edge nuclear technologies, indicating a potential future direction for Jiadian to follow [1] - The thorium molten salt reactor technology is still in the research phase and has not yet achieved engineering transformation, suggesting that Jiadian will continue to monitor advancements in nuclear energy technology [1]

Core Viewpoint - Jiadian Co., Ltd. (佳电股份) is currently not involved in advanced nuclear energy technologies, despite the strategic developments in the Harbin Electric Group regarding thorium molten salt reactors and other fourth-generation nuclear power technologies [1] Group 1: Company Developments - Jiadian Co., Ltd. has not yet engaged in the business or supply related to advanced nuclear energy technologies [1] - The company will continue to monitor advancements in cutting-edge nuclear energy technologies and is prepared to develop market opportunities for engineering equipment support [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - Harbin Electric Group has made strategic layouts and explorations in various advanced nuclear technologies, including thorium molten salt reactors, sodium-cooled fast reactors, and lead-bismuth fast reactors [1] - The thorium molten salt reactor technology is still in the research phase and has not yet achieved engineering transformation [1]

Core Insights - China's nuclear power industry has achieved a total of 102 operational, under construction, and approved nuclear power units, with a total installed capacity of 113 million kilowatts, making it the largest in the world [1] - The country is actively implementing a new energy security strategy, with nuclear energy playing a crucial role in the clean energy system and low-carbon transition [1] - There are currently 28 nuclear power units under construction, with a total capacity of 33.65 million kilowatts, maintaining the world's leading position for 18 consecutive years [1] - In the past year, China approved five nuclear power projects, totaling 11 units, marking the third consecutive year of approving 10 or more nuclear units [1] - The domestic innovation capability in nuclear power technology has significantly improved, achieving 100% localization of key main equipment and autonomous control of key component technologies [1] - China has developed its own brands of third-generation pressurized water reactors, such as "Hualong One" and "Guohe One," and advanced technologies including high-temperature gas-cooled reactors and sodium-cooled fast reactors [1] Industry Development - The nuclear power industry is steadily growing, supported by a robust supply chain and industrial ecosystem developed over 40 years [2] - China is one of the few countries with a complete nuclear power industrial system, excelling in engineering design, construction, and equipment manufacturing [2] - The industry is leveraging digitalization and intelligent methods to enhance safety, quality, schedule, and cost control, maintaining international advanced levels [2] - Equipment manufacturing enterprises are improving product quality and production efficiency through technological and management innovations, with an annual manufacturing capacity of over 10 complete sets of nuclear power equipment [2] - The State Council has approved new nuclear power projects, including the Zhejiang Sanmen Phase III project, indicating a strategic opportunity for nuclear energy development under the "dual carbon" goals [2]