Morning session notice 早盘提示 研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 昨日日盘锰硅主力合约 SM2603 收于 6000，环比日盘开盘上涨 1.39%；硅铁主力合约 | | | | | SF2603 收于 5860，环比日盘开盘上涨 1.45%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、工信部印发《工业互联网和人工智能融合赋能行动方案》，在原材料、装备制造、 | | | | | 消费品、电子信息等重点行业工业企业加快部署应用，推动不少于 50000 家企业实施新 | | | | | 型工业网络改造升级。 | | | | | 2、1 月 7 日，唐山迁安普方坯资源出厂含税累计上调 50，报 2980 元/吨。 | | | 硅铁、 | | 3、本周，314 家独立洗煤厂样本产能利用率为 35.4%，环比增 0.3%；精煤日产 26.1 万 | | 黑色 | 锰硅 | ...

国际市场炼焦煤价格再度突破200美元 据普氏价格指数数据显示，截至12月5日（周五），澳大利亚优质主焦煤峰景煤海角港离岸价（FOB） 为205.5美元，较前一周五上涨6.5美元，上涨3.27%，再度突破每吨200美元关口。 来源：市场资讯 （来源：煤炭视界） 焦协建议各企业应主动执行限产措施 今日焦协发文，认为结合上下游因素考虑，各企业应主动执行限产措施，减少或停止采购高价煤炭，以 此来表达自身处境。今日原料方面，炼焦煤价格偏稳居多，下跌速度放缓，降价情绪有明显下降，市场 多认为炼焦煤价格即将止跌企稳。下游钢厂方面，今日成交情绪依旧偏弱，唐山迁安松汀钢铁普方坯资 源下调20，执行2950元/吨含税出厂。第二轮降价预期仍在，预计近期焦炭价格偏弱运行。 国内市场炼焦煤价格继续探底 今日国内市场炼焦煤价格窄幅下行。供应方面，年底矿端出于安全生产考虑以及年度开采计划完成情况 条件制约下，短期内焦煤供应或继续维持在较低水平。目前市场采购情绪仍偏谨慎，焦煤价格承压，但 进一步下跌空间有限。今日长治沁源市场低硫瘦主焦煤（A8、S0.5、G65）起拍价1410元/吨，成交均 价1414元/吨，成交量4万吨，较上一期下跌30元 ...

Group 1: Report on Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The steel price of finished products is expected to run weakly with fluctuations [3]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Contents Production Status - Last week, the scale of maintenance of construction steel mills significantly decreased and the scale of resumption of production increased. There were 5 maintenance production lines, 12 less than the previous week, and 8 resumption production lines, 6 more than the previous week. The production affected by production line maintenance was 257,800 tons last week, and it is expected to be 189,600 tons this week [2]. - The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.18%, a week - on - week increase of 4.39 percentage points. The steel mill profitability rate was 60.17%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87 percentage points. The daily average hot metal output was 2.4055 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 117,100 tons [2]. - The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills nationwide was 55.26%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.48 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 18.52 percentage points [2]. Price and Market Situation - The price of Tangshan Qian'an common billet was stable at 3,010 yuan/ton last weekend [2]. - Finished products fluctuated and declined last week, with a rebound during Friday's trading session, but the whole week was mainly characterized by downward fluctuations to a recent low. After the military parade, the previously shut - down production capacity gradually recovered, and the hot metal output increased rapidly last week. The demand side changed little, showing a characteristic of strong supply and weak demand, which is expected to continue in the short term [2]. Later Concerns - Macro policies, supply - side production reduction situation, and downstream demand situation should be focused on [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term price fluctuations are large, and the market will operate weakly with oscillations [4] Group 3: Summary According to the Content Steel Production and Utilization Rates - Last week, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.25%, a 0.03 - percentage - point increase from the previous week; the steel mill profitability rate was 64.94%, a 0.86 - percentage - point decrease; the daily average pig iron output was 240.75 tons, a 0.09 - ton increase [3] - The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills nationwide was 56.67%, a 0.72 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week and a 22.48 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The average operating rate was 75.69%, a 0.69 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week and a 24.72 - percentage - point increase year - on - year [3] - Among 87 section steel production lines in Tangshan, 15 were actually in operation, with an overall operating rate of 25.42%, a 27.12% decrease from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate was 49.23%, a 0.89% increase from the previous week [3] Steel Mill Maintenance Plans - According to the survey, 45% of steel mills in Tangshan, Hebei plan to conduct maintenance in the short - term but are waiting for notice, 32% have confirmed maintenance, and 23% will not conduct maintenance. The known daily average impact on pig iron output in Tangshan, Hebei is about 4.18 tons, with a total pig iron volume of 37 - 45 tons [3] Steel Price - Over the weekend, the ex - factory tax - included price of common billet resources in Qian'an, Tangshan increased by 20 yuan/ton to 3040 yuan/ton [3] Market Situation - Last week, the finished steel market mainly oscillated and corrected, returning to the fundamental trading logic. Although there were production restrictions on the supply side, downstream demand remained weak. As September approaches, construction sites in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region will face stricter shutdowns, and short - term demand is difficult to improve [3] Factors to Watch - Macro policies, supply - side production reduction, and downstream demand [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Report's Core View - Steel prices are expected to have increased short - term volatility and overall strong performance [2] 3) Summary by Content - On July 30, the China Metal Materials Circulation Association issued an initiative to resist "involution - style competition" and promote the scientific and orderly development of the steel circulation industry, advocating fair competition based on product quality, service value, and technological innovation [1] - This week, the average hot - metal cost of mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan was 2097 yuan/ton (ex - tax), and the average billet cost was 2843 yuan/ton (tax - included), up 35 yuan/ton week - on - week. Compared with the current billet price of 3180 yuan/ton, the average profit per ton of steel mills was 337 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton week - on - week [1] - From July 1 - 27, the retail sales of the national passenger vehicle market were 1.445 million units, a 9% increase compared to the same period last July, a 19% decrease compared to the same period last month. The cumulative retail sales since the beginning of this year were 12.346 million units, a 11% increase year - on - year [1] - Yesterday, finished products first rose and then fell. At night, they reached a new high during the rebound, and then fluctuated and declined in the morning. Currently, the downstream demand for finished products is weak, especially for building materials in the off - season, and rainfall in many places has a great impact on construction sites. However, the macro - sentiment is strong, and anti - involution policies support prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic steel market is experiencing mixed fluctuations, with the ex-factory price of ordinary square billets in Tangshan and Qian'an remaining stable at 2910 yuan per ton [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The domestic steel market shows a mixed trend today, indicating varying price movements across different regions and products [1] - The price of ordinary square billets in Tangshan and Qian'an is reported to be stable, suggesting a potential equilibrium in this segment of the market [1]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the content [1][2][3] Core Viewpoint - The report suggests treating steel prices with a strategy of trying short positions on rebounds [3] Summary by Relevant Information Steel Production Data - The production of rebar decreased by 108,900 tons to 2.0757 million tons, hot-rolled coil production decreased by 41,000 tons to 3.2465 million tons, and the total production of the five major steel products decreased by 215,300 tons to 8.5885 million tons [2] Steel Inventory Data - The total inventory of rebar decreased by 124,000 tons to 5.5808 million tons, the total inventory of hot-rolled coil increased by 47,700 tons to 3.4541 million tons, and the total inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 92,500 tons to 13.5456 million tons [2] Steel Apparent Demand Data - The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 90,600 tons to 2.1997 million tons, the apparent demand for hot-rolled coil decreased by 10,400 tons to 3.1988 million tons, and the total apparent demand for the five major steel products decreased by 140,700 tons to 8.681 million tons [2] Real Estate Transaction Data - In May, the total transaction (signing) area of newly-built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 6.4404 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 7.6% and a year-on-year decrease of 17.1%; the total transaction (signing) area of second-hand housing was 9.1832 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 15.2% and a year-on-year increase of 1.5% [2] Steel Price Data - On June 12, the ex-factory price of ordinary billet resources in Qian'an, Tangshan decreased by 30 yuan after noon, reported at 2,890 yuan per ton [2] Market Analysis - The finished steel fluctuated and declined yesterday, giving back the gains formed due to macro - positive factors the previous day. The weekly supply, apparent demand, and inventory all declined, with no obvious overall contradictions. The main factor affecting steel prices is still downstream demand. It has entered the off - season, and there is little chance of effective improvement in the short term, with further decline possible. It is recommended to try short positions on rebounds [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report suggests treating the market with a strategy of short - selling on rebounds [4] - Although the market rebounded due to the positive outcome of the Sino - US talks, it is currently in the off - season of demand, and there is still room for further decline in the short term [3] Group 3: Summary According to Related Content Market Situation - From June 9th to 10th local time, the first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London. The two sides reached a principled agreement on the measures framework for implementing the important consensus of the leaders' phone call on June 5th and consolidating the results of the Geneva economic and trade talks, and made new progress in addressing each other's economic and trade concerns [3] - This week, the average含税 cost of steel billets of mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan was 2,832 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 30 yuan/ton. Compared with the current ex - factory price of common square billets of 2,920 yuan/ton on June 11th, the average profit of steel mills was 88 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 60 yuan/ton [3] - On June 11th, the ex - factory含税 price of common square billet resources in Qian'an, Tangshan increased by 20 yuan in total, reaching 2,920 yuan/ton [3] Market Outlook - The market rebounded yesterday, and market sentiment improved slightly due to the Sino - US talks. However, it has entered the off - season of demand, and there is little chance of effective improvement in downstream demand in the short term, with further decline possible [3] Suggestion - It is still recommended to try short - selling on rebounds based on the current situation [3][4] Factors to Watch - Macro - policies and downstream demand conditions should be monitored in the later stage [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price of finished products showed a pattern of rising and then falling due to low demand. Given the current macro and fundamental situation, it is recommended to try short - selling at high prices after a rebound. For raw materials, there may still be a rebound in the near term, and short - selling can be attempted during the rebound [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Real Estate - From May 5th to May 11th, the total contracted area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.4548 million square meters, with a 13.2% month - on - month increase and a 17.7% year - on - year decrease [2] White Goods - According to the online market monitoring data of Aowei Cloud Network, in April, the year - on - year growth rates of the online retail sales of refrigerators, freezers, washing machines, independent dryers, and air conditioners were +1.0%, - 0.8%, +10.8%, +45.0%, and +34.8% respectively [2] Steel Industry - On May 13th, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3334 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 8 yuan/ton. The average profit was - 87 yuan/ton, and the valley - electricity profit was 18 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 12 yuan/ton. On May 13th, the ex - factory price of ordinary billet resources in Qian'an, Tangshan was reduced by 20 yuan to 2950 yuan. On May 12th, the release of the "Geneva Economic and Trade Joint Statement" between China and the United States was beneficial at the macro - level, leading to a rebound in many commodity varieties. However, there was still pressure on the domestic demand side. In the industry, due to the still - existing profits of steel mills, the hot - metal output and steel mill operating rates increased last week, but the downstream was gradually entering the off - season of demand, resulting in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the steel price was under pressure [2]