晨报 成材 成材：关注需求端启动 钢价震荡运行 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成文时间： 2026 年 3 月 2 日 逻辑：上周，247 家钢厂高炉炼铁产能利用率 80.22%，环比增加 0.09 个百分点，同比增加 1.93 个百分点；日均铁水产量 233.28 万吨，环比增 加 2.79 万吨，同比增加 5.34 万吨。上周，全国 94 家独立电弧炉钢厂平 均产能利用率 7.35%，环比基本持平，同比下降 41.56 个百分点。平均开 工率 10.14%，环比上升 0.29 个百分点，同比下降 53.2 个百分点。唐山 市于 2026 年 3 月 1 日 18 时起启动重污染天气Ⅱ级应急响应，解除时间另 行通知。上周末，唐山迁安普方坯资源出厂含税上调 10 元/吨，报 2920 元/吨。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 成材上周先下后上，底部震荡运行，螺纹主力最低逼近 3000 一线， 热卷主力短暂跌破 3200。上周基本面变化符合预期，累库在正常节奏内。 尽管已经过了春节假期，下游尚未启动，更多关 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The report predicts that the market for finished products will move in a volatile manner [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Steel Production and Supply - Last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 79.53%, a month - on - month increase of 0.53 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.55 percentage points; the daily average hot metal output was 2.2858 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.60 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.14 million tons [3] - Six cities in Hebei launched a Level II emergency response for heavy air pollution on February 8 [3] Winter Storage Policy and Market Sentiment - Henan's winter storage policies were gradually introduced, with the mainstream locked - in price at 3,040 yuan/ton, and the post - settlement model extended to the end of March. Some steel mills chose self - storage or on - demand delivery [3] - Merchants' willingness for winter storage was low, generally stocking 1,000 - 2,000 tons. The market was cautious and waiting due to weak expectations of post - holiday demand recovery [3] Excavator Sales - In January 2026, 18,708 excavators of various types were sold, a year - on - year increase of 49.5%. Among them, domestic sales were 8,723 units, a year - on - year increase of 61.4%; exports were 9,985 units, a year - on - year increase of 40.5% [3] Steel Price - At the end of last week, the ex - factory price of common billet resources in Qian'an, Tangshan remained stable at 2,910 yuan/ton [3] Market Situation - Last week, finished products fluctuated lower, and the steel market continued to show a situation of weak supply and demand. As the Spring Festival approached, the spot market gradually entered the holiday rhythm. There might still be capital outflows before the holiday, leading to a decline in market trading. The macro - environment was calm and had little impact on prices [3]

成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 晨报 成材 成材：随板块波动 价格震荡偏弱 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 原材料：程 鹏 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 后期关注/风险因素：宏观政策；下游需求情况。 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变更，我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中观点、结论和建议仅供参考，投资者据此 做出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关。 地址：北京市海淀区海淀大街 8 号 19 层 ☎ 400-700-6700 www.zgfcc.com 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the black metal sector (silicon iron and manganese silicon) is "oscillating and bullish" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of the main contracts of silicon iron and manganese silicon rose on the previous trading day, mainly affected by the daily limit of coking coal and coke. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream replenishment has gradually started, significantly boosting market confidence [1]. - For manganese silicon, the price of manganese ore increased before that of manganese silicon, providing strong cost support. The market still has certain expectations for downstream winter storage, but the progress of the new round of steel procurement needs attention [1]. - Driven by short - term sentiment, the market is bullish, but the demand for the two types of silicon remains to be tested after the steel procurement is finalized and the emotional stimulus weakens [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - On the previous trading day, the main contract of manganese silicon SM2603 closed at 6000, up 1.39% compared with the opening of the day session. The main contract of silicon iron SF2603 closed at 5860, up 1.45% compared with the opening of the day session [1]. Important Information - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Action Plan for the Integration and Empowerment of Industrial Internet and Artificial Intelligence", accelerating the deployment and application in key industries such as raw materials, equipment manufacturing, consumer goods, and electronic information, and promoting more than 50,000 enterprises to implement the transformation and upgrading of new industrial networks [1]. - On January 7th, the ex - factory price of ordinary billet resources in Qian'an, Tangshan increased by 50 in total, reaching 2,980 yuan/ton [1]. - This week, the capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 35.4%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3%. The daily output of clean coal was 261 thousand tons, a month - on - month increase of 3 thousand tons. The clean coal inventory was 3.197 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 94 thousand tons [1]. - Shaanxi Coal Industry: In December 2025, the coal output was 1.474 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.03%. The cumulative coal output in 2025 was 174.9056 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.59% [1]. Market Logic - Yesterday, the double - silicon market opened with a gap mainly due to the daily limit of coking coal and coke. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream replenishment has started, boosting market confidence. For manganese silicon, the rising price of manganese ore provides cost support, and the market has expectations for downstream winter storage [1]. Trading Strategy - The short - term sentiment drives the market to be bullish. After the steel procurement is finalized and the emotional stimulus weakens, the demand for double silicon remains to be tested. The short - term view is bullish [1].

Group 1 - International market coking coal prices have surpassed $200 again, with Australian premium coking coal prices reaching $205.5 per ton, a $6.5 increase or 3.27% from the previous week [1] - Domestic coking coal prices are experiencing a slight decline, with the low-sulfur lean coking coal in Changzhi Qinyuan priced at 1410 CNY per ton, a decrease of 30 CNY from the previous period, and a transaction volume of 40,000 tons [3] - The China Coking Association has recommended that companies proactively implement production limits and reduce or stop purchasing high-priced coal to express their current situation [4] Group 2 - The supply of coking coal is expected to remain low in the short term due to safety production considerations and the completion of annual mining plans, leading to cautious market purchasing sentiment [3] - Steel mills are experiencing a continuous decline in pig iron production, and there are expectations for further reductions in the coking market, with most steel companies maintaining a wait-and-see attitude [3] - The overall sentiment in the coking coal market is that prices are likely to stabilize soon, as the pace of decline has slowed and there is a noticeable decrease in the sentiment for price reductions [4]

Group 1: Report on Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The steel price of finished products is expected to run weakly with fluctuations [3]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Contents Production Status - Last week, the scale of maintenance of construction steel mills significantly decreased and the scale of resumption of production increased. There were 5 maintenance production lines, 12 less than the previous week, and 8 resumption production lines, 6 more than the previous week. The production affected by production line maintenance was 257,800 tons last week, and it is expected to be 189,600 tons this week [2]. - The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.18%, a week - on - week increase of 4.39 percentage points. The steel mill profitability rate was 60.17%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87 percentage points. The daily average hot metal output was 2.4055 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 117,100 tons [2]. - The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills nationwide was 55.26%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.48 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 18.52 percentage points [2]. Price and Market Situation - The price of Tangshan Qian'an common billet was stable at 3,010 yuan/ton last weekend [2]. - Finished products fluctuated and declined last week, with a rebound during Friday's trading session, but the whole week was mainly characterized by downward fluctuations to a recent low. After the military parade, the previously shut - down production capacity gradually recovered, and the hot metal output increased rapidly last week. The demand side changed little, showing a characteristic of strong supply and weak demand, which is expected to continue in the short term [2]. Later Concerns - Macro policies, supply - side production reduction situation, and downstream demand situation should be focused on [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term price fluctuations are large, and the market will operate weakly with oscillations [4] Group 3: Summary According to the Content Steel Production and Utilization Rates - Last week, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.25%, a 0.03 - percentage - point increase from the previous week; the steel mill profitability rate was 64.94%, a 0.86 - percentage - point decrease; the daily average pig iron output was 240.75 tons, a 0.09 - ton increase [3] - The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills nationwide was 56.67%, a 0.72 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week and a 22.48 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The average operating rate was 75.69%, a 0.69 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week and a 24.72 - percentage - point increase year - on - year [3] - Among 87 section steel production lines in Tangshan, 15 were actually in operation, with an overall operating rate of 25.42%, a 27.12% decrease from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate was 49.23%, a 0.89% increase from the previous week [3] Steel Mill Maintenance Plans - According to the survey, 45% of steel mills in Tangshan, Hebei plan to conduct maintenance in the short - term but are waiting for notice, 32% have confirmed maintenance, and 23% will not conduct maintenance. The known daily average impact on pig iron output in Tangshan, Hebei is about 4.18 tons, with a total pig iron volume of 37 - 45 tons [3] Steel Price - Over the weekend, the ex - factory tax - included price of common billet resources in Qian'an, Tangshan increased by 20 yuan/ton to 3040 yuan/ton [3] Market Situation - Last week, the finished steel market mainly oscillated and corrected, returning to the fundamental trading logic. Although there were production restrictions on the supply side, downstream demand remained weak. As September approaches, construction sites in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region will face stricter shutdowns, and short - term demand is difficult to improve [3] Factors to Watch - Macro policies, supply - side production reduction, and downstream demand [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Report's Core View - Steel prices are expected to have increased short - term volatility and overall strong performance [2] 3) Summary by Content - On July 30, the China Metal Materials Circulation Association issued an initiative to resist "involution - style competition" and promote the scientific and orderly development of the steel circulation industry, advocating fair competition based on product quality, service value, and technological innovation [1] - This week, the average hot - metal cost of mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan was 2097 yuan/ton (ex - tax), and the average billet cost was 2843 yuan/ton (tax - included), up 35 yuan/ton week - on - week. Compared with the current billet price of 3180 yuan/ton, the average profit per ton of steel mills was 337 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton week - on - week [1] - From July 1 - 27, the retail sales of the national passenger vehicle market were 1.445 million units, a 9% increase compared to the same period last July, a 19% decrease compared to the same period last month. The cumulative retail sales since the beginning of this year were 12.346 million units, a 11% increase year - on - year [1] - Yesterday, finished products first rose and then fell. At night, they reached a new high during the rebound, and then fluctuated and declined in the morning. Currently, the downstream demand for finished products is weak, especially for building materials in the off - season, and rainfall in many places has a great impact on construction sites. However, the macro - sentiment is strong, and anti - involution policies support prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic steel market is experiencing mixed fluctuations, with the ex-factory price of ordinary square billets in Tangshan and Qian'an remaining stable at 2910 yuan per ton [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The domestic steel market shows a mixed trend today, indicating varying price movements across different regions and products [1] - The price of ordinary square billets in Tangshan and Qian'an is reported to be stable, suggesting a potential equilibrium in this segment of the market [1]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the content [1][2][3] Core Viewpoint - The report suggests treating steel prices with a strategy of trying short positions on rebounds [3] Summary by Relevant Information Steel Production Data - The production of rebar decreased by 108,900 tons to 2.0757 million tons, hot-rolled coil production decreased by 41,000 tons to 3.2465 million tons, and the total production of the five major steel products decreased by 215,300 tons to 8.5885 million tons [2] Steel Inventory Data - The total inventory of rebar decreased by 124,000 tons to 5.5808 million tons, the total inventory of hot-rolled coil increased by 47,700 tons to 3.4541 million tons, and the total inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 92,500 tons to 13.5456 million tons [2] Steel Apparent Demand Data - The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 90,600 tons to 2.1997 million tons, the apparent demand for hot-rolled coil decreased by 10,400 tons to 3.1988 million tons, and the total apparent demand for the five major steel products decreased by 140,700 tons to 8.681 million tons [2] Real Estate Transaction Data - In May, the total transaction (signing) area of newly-built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 6.4404 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 7.6% and a year-on-year decrease of 17.1%; the total transaction (signing) area of second-hand housing was 9.1832 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 15.2% and a year-on-year increase of 1.5% [2] Steel Price Data - On June 12, the ex-factory price of ordinary billet resources in Qian'an, Tangshan decreased by 30 yuan after noon, reported at 2,890 yuan per ton [2] Market Analysis - The finished steel fluctuated and declined yesterday, giving back the gains formed due to macro - positive factors the previous day. The weekly supply, apparent demand, and inventory all declined, with no obvious overall contradictions. The main factor affecting steel prices is still downstream demand. It has entered the off - season, and there is little chance of effective improvement in the short term, with further decline possible. It is recommended to try short positions on rebounds [2]