在能源转型与电力市场化改革深入推进的背景下，光储一体化正在迎来重要发展机遇。随着"十五五"规划建议明确提出发展新型储能，四中全会强调加快 建设新型能源体系，光储平价时代正在加速到来。面对这个数万亿级别的市场，投资者该如何把握其中的投资逻辑与机会？ 11月17日，中金财富《向往的投资》第152期栏目深度聚焦光储投资这一重要领域，邀请了中金公司研究部新能源行业分析师廖龙欢女士与中金财富海南 分公司投资顾问任敏军先生，为投资者带来了全面深入的解析与分享。 首先，是产业发展的系统基石——光储一体化的场景拓展与系统集成。廖龙欢女士指出，光储一体化正在发电侧、电网侧和用户侧三个维度快速推进，形 成了大型集中式光储电站、工商业光储充系统、户用储能系统等多层次应用格局，为能源转型提供了坚实的基础支撑。 其次，是市场爆发的核心驱动力——储能需求的确定性拐点。廖龙欢女士分析，当前储能发展正迎来成本下降、政策催化与海外需求的三重共振。特别 是"136号文"的出台，从根本上理顺了储能的商业模式，使其从"成本项"转变为"收益项"，通过容量电价、峰谷套利等机制显著提升了项目经济性。 最后，是关于产业格局的关键变革——光伏行业的"反内卷" ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that new energy storage technology is rapidly developing in China, with installed capacity expected to exceed 100 million kilowatts by September 2025, playing a crucial role in promoting renewable energy consumption and ensuring reliable electricity supply [1] - The development of new energy storage in China is driven by a dual mechanism of "proactive government" and "effective market," which has successfully facilitated the rapid growth of the industry [1] - China's energy storage policies have evolved from early "new energy with storage" to market-oriented incentives such as capacity compensation and spot trading, establishing independent market entities for energy storage and broadening value realization channels [1] Group 2 - The installed capacity of energy storage has seen a significant increase, with system costs dropping by over 50% since 2022 [1] - China is recognized as a global leader in controlling the costs of large wind turbines, battery storage, and nuclear reactor construction, according to Nobel laureate Steven Chu [1] - The technology landscape of China's energy storage industry is diversifying, with lithium-ion batteries remaining dominant while new technologies like sodium-ion batteries, flow batteries, and compressed air storage are accelerating in demonstration applications [2]

Core Viewpoint - The "Guiding Opinions" issued by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration aim to promote the high-quality development of renewable energy in China, establishing a clear implementation path for achieving at least 200 million kilowatts of new renewable energy consumption capacity annually [1][2]. Group 1: Renewable Energy Development - The document emphasizes the need for a multi-layered renewable energy consumption regulation system to meet the annual demand for at least 200 million kilowatts of new renewable energy by 2030 [2][3]. - The current installed capacity of wind and solar energy in China exceeds 1.7 billion kilowatts, indicating that an average of 180 to 200 million kilowatts of new capacity will need to be added annually from 2026 to 2035 to meet future targets [2][3]. Group 2: Energy Consumption and Regulation - The "Guiding Opinions" categorize renewable energy development and consumption into five types, focusing on optimizing the integration of various energy sources and enhancing local consumption capabilities [2][3]. - The document highlights the importance of establishing a pricing mechanism for coal power, pumped storage, and new energy storage to support the flexible adjustment of energy resources [3][4]. Group 3: Storage Technology and Innovation - The installed capacity of new energy storage in China has surpassed 100 million kilowatts, with a significant increase in the share of renewable energy generation [4][5]. - The "Guiding Opinions" encourage the innovation of various storage technologies, including liquid flow batteries and compressed air storage, to meet the demand for large-capacity and long-duration energy storage [6][7]. Group 4: Market Opportunities and Collaboration - The document outlines new market opportunities by promoting the synergy between renewable energy and computing power facilities, which are expected to have a direct impact on the computing industry [5][6]. - Companies are advised to consider regional renewable energy layouts when planning computing projects, prioritizing areas with stable green electricity availability [5][6].

Core Insights - The new energy storage market in China is experiencing a temporary decline in October 2025 after a peak in September, with new installed capacity dropping significantly year-on-year and month-on-month [1][3][4] - Despite the short-term setback, the cumulative installed capacity for the first ten months of 2025 shows a robust growth of 36%, with a potential for record-high annual installations by year-end [3][4] New Energy Storage Project Analysis - In October 2025, the total newly installed capacity of new energy storage projects reached 1.70 GW/3.52 GWh, representing a year-on-year decrease of 35% and 49%, and a month-on-month decrease of 51% and 66% [1][4] - Independent energy storage projects accounted for over 75% of the new installations, indicating a shift towards independent storage solutions [3][7] - Third-party enterprises surpassed state-owned enterprises for the first time, with over half of the new installations attributed to equipment manufacturers and private energy companies, highlighting a diversification in market participants [3][17] Regional Distribution - The western region of China accounted for over 50% of the new installed capacity in October, with Ningxia and Shanxi leading in new capacity [10][11][12] - Ningxia's new energy storage demand is driven by high renewable energy integration and national infrastructure projects, positioning it as a key area for energy storage development [12][13] Technology Trends - The majority of new installations utilized lithium iron phosphate battery technology, which made up 98.5% of the capacity, while non-lithium technologies like compressed air and flow batteries are gaining traction [20][21] - Multiple projects utilizing non-lithium technologies are in planning and construction phases, indicating a trend towards technological diversification in the energy storage sector [20][21] Market Dynamics - The market is witnessing a significant shift in investment dynamics, with third-party companies increasingly participating in energy storage projects, driven by favorable policies and declining technology costs [17][19] - Despite the rise of third-party enterprises, large energy groups remain crucial players in the market, contributing to 46% of the new installations in September [17][19]

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic equipment sector experienced a significant surge, with multiple stocks hitting their daily limit up, driven by new government guidelines promoting renewable energy consumption and storage solutions [2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Zhonglai Co. opened with a 20% limit up within 10 minutes, while Kuake Electronics rose over 10%, leading the gains in the sector [2]. - Other stocks such as Yijing Optoelectronics, GCL-Poly Energy, Jincheng Co., and Guosheng Technology also reached their daily limit up [2]. Group 2: Government Policy - On November 10, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration released guidelines to enhance the adaptability of new power systems to renewable energy [2]. - The guidelines emphasize the importance of advancing new energy storage technologies, including liquid flow batteries, compressed air storage, and gravity storage, to improve utilization levels [2]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - Century Securities maintains a positive outlook on the energy storage sector, noting that prices for domestic energy storage cells and systems have been steadily increasing due to strong demand from integrated manufacturers and rising raw material costs [2]. - The prices of lithium carbonate and cathode materials have rebounded, while the supply of lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolytes has tightened, leading to increased unit costs [2]. - It is expected that the total capacity for independent energy storage in China may exceed 200 GWh next year, with global growth projected to remain above 40% [2].

Core Viewpoint - Compressed air energy storage (CAES) is experiencing a new wave of investment and development, driven by increasing demand for long-duration energy storage solutions and supportive government policies [6][14][20]. Investment Projects - Yunnan Energy Investment announced an investment of 1.872 billion yuan to build a 350MW CAES demonstration project in Kunming, which is expected to have a post-tax internal rate of return of 5.5% and a payback period of 17.91 years [6][10][20]. - The project will utilize retired salt caverns for energy storage and is expected to enhance grid stability and accommodate large-scale renewable energy integration in Yunnan [10][12]. National Trends - There is a nationwide trend of increasing CAES projects, with several large-scale projects entering implementation phases in October alone, indicating a growing interest in this technology [8][12]. - By the end of 2024, the newly signed CAES projects in China are expected to reach a scale of 6.8GW, representing a year-on-year growth of 21% [12]. Market Demand - The demand for long-duration energy storage is rising, as evidenced by the average storage duration of new energy storage projects increasing from 2.3 hours to 2.6 hours [14][16]. - The National Energy Administration's "Blue Book" outlines a strategic focus on long-duration storage technologies, including CAES, to meet future energy system balancing needs [14][16]. Economic Viability - The economic viability of CAES has improved significantly, with Yunnan Energy Investment's project demonstrating commercial investment potential [19][20]. - Comparatively, the internal rate of return for CAES projects is becoming competitive with other storage technologies, such as pumped hydro storage [19][20]. Geographical Considerations - The geographical limitations for CAES development, primarily the need for suitable storage sites, are being addressed through technological advancements [21]. - Recent innovations include the use of abandoned oil and gas fields for CAES, which could further enhance the commercial viability of this technology [21].

Group 1: Policy Initiatives on Renewable Energy - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration released guidelines to promote the consumption and regulation of renewable energy, emphasizing the need to upgrade intelligent control technologies and accelerate the application of advanced technologies like AI, big data, and cloud computing in the coordination of main and distributed microgrids [1] - The guidelines call for breakthroughs in large-capacity long-duration energy storage technologies, including innovations in flow batteries, compressed air storage, and gravity storage, as well as enhancing the flexible regulation capabilities of newly built pumped storage power stations [2] - The policy aims to establish a market rule system that accommodates renewable energy participation in electricity markets, supporting direct trading models for distributed renewable energy and storage [3] Group 2: Future Goals for Energy Systems - By 2030, a multi-level renewable energy consumption regulation system is expected to be established, ensuring the integration and efficient operation of renewable energy sources, with an annual demand for 200 million kilowatts of new energy consumption to be met [4] - By 2035, a new power system compatible with a high proportion of renewable energy is projected to be fundamentally established, further improving the renewable energy consumption regulation system [4] Group 3: Development of Application Scenarios - The Guangdong Provincial Development and Reform Commission plans to expand major application scenarios in areas such as unmanned systems and intelligent manufacturing, focusing on promoting and implementing significant application scenarios [5] - The Ministry of Science and Technology aims to strengthen the development of key core technologies and their transformation into practical applications, emphasizing a coordinated approach to technology development, standard formulation, and industry cultivation [6] - Anhui Province is set to implement a quantum information application scenario initiative, targeting the establishment of 300 application scenarios by the end of 2025 and 1,000 by 2027 [7][8] Group 4: Enhancing Scene Supply and Application - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission will collaborate with relevant departments to enhance the supply of high-value application scenarios and promote the integration of technological and industrial innovation [9] - The National Development and Reform Commission supports the construction of comprehensive major scenarios and high-value small-scale scenarios, aiming to create a positive cycle of scenario release, application, feedback, and optimization [10] - Emphasizing the importance of collaboration, the National Development and Reform Commission highlights the need for standardized logistics to reduce costs and improve efficiency in multi-scenario integration [11]

Core Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly released the "Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Consumption and Regulation of New Energy," providing a clear implementation path for high-quality development of new energy in China [1] Group 1: Key Tasks and Focus Areas - The "Guiding Opinions" outlines several key tasks, including categorizing the guidance for new energy development and consumption, promoting innovative new models and new business formats for new energy consumption, enhancing the adaptability of the new power system to new energy, improving the national unified electricity market system for promoting new energy consumption, and strengthening technological innovation support for new energy consumption [1] - A significant focus is placed on the collaborative planning and optimization of new energy and computing power facilities, promoting the green development of computing power facilities [1] - Innovations in energy storage technology are emphasized, particularly the application of various technologies such as flow batteries, compressed air storage, and gravity storage, to accelerate breakthroughs in large-capacity long-duration energy storage technologies [1] Group 2: Energy Storage Insights - According to Lin Boqiang, the cheapest energy storage method is pumped storage, but it is limited by specific geographical conditions [2] - Other energy storage technologies, such as electrochemical storage, compressed air storage, and flywheel storage, have diverse characteristics, but current battery storage is still small-scale, primarily constrained by cost, lifespan, and safety issues [2] - Energy storage systems are crucial for supporting new energy systems, effectively balancing the fluctuations of intermittent renewable energy sources like wind and solar, thereby enhancing the reliability and efficiency of the power grid [2] Group 3: Consumption Mechanisms and New Business Models - The "Guiding Opinions" propose classifying new energy development and consumption into five categories, optimizing the integration of water, wind, and solar energy, and promoting orderly development and consumption of offshore wind power [3] - The document highlights the emergence of new models and business formats under the "dual carbon" goals, emphasizing the integration of new energy with industry, supporting the development of four new business formats for nearby consumption of new energy [3] - Lin Boqiang notes that while previous policies on new energy consumption were not entirely absent, current policy direction is moving towards comprehensive and systematic integration, focusing on the construction of nearby consumption mechanisms and the promotion of integrated development [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of energy storage in the development of a new energy system in China, highlighting its transition from a mere tool for renewable energy consumption to a core component of energy flexibility and system support [3][4]. Group 1: Policy Guidance - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration released guidelines aimed at establishing a multi-level renewable energy consumption and regulation system by 2030, ensuring that new electricity demand is primarily met by renewable energy generation [2][10]. - By 2035, a new power system capable of accommodating a high proportion of renewable energy is expected to be established, further enhancing the renewable energy consumption regulation system [2][10]. Group 2: Energy Storage Development - The guidelines create a clear value positioning and profit model for the new energy storage industry, promoting its strategic elevation as a key element in the energy system [3]. - The document encourages the integration of source, grid, load, and storage, as well as the development of new business models for nearby renewable energy consumption [3][4]. Group 3: Technological Innovation - The white paper on carbon peak and carbon neutrality emphasizes the importance of energy storage as a foundational element for the new power system, advocating for the diversified application of various storage technologies such as lithium-ion batteries and compressed air storage [4][19]. - The article discusses the need for advanced, safe, and efficient new energy storage technologies to enhance the utilization of renewable energy [5][19]. Group 4: Market Mechanisms - The guidelines propose the establishment of a unified national electricity market to facilitate the consumption of renewable energy, including the development of market rules that support the participation of distributed energy resources and storage [17][18]. - It is suggested to innovate pricing mechanisms to encourage the consumption of renewable energy and improve the flexibility of cross-regional electricity transmission pricing [18][20]. Group 5: Implementation and Monitoring - The article outlines the responsibilities of various stakeholders, including the National Development and Reform Commission and provincial energy departments, in ensuring the effective implementation of renewable energy consumption strategies [20][21]. - A monitoring and regulatory framework is proposed to track the progress of renewable energy utilization and ensure compliance with established targets [21].

Core Viewpoint - The article outlines the guidelines for promoting the consumption and regulation of renewable energy in China, aiming to establish a new power system that accommodates a high proportion of renewable energy by 2035, with a focus on enhancing system regulation capabilities and optimizing energy consumption mechanisms [5][6]. Group 1: Overall Requirements - The guidelines emphasize the need for a multi-layered renewable energy consumption and regulation system to be established by 2030, ensuring that new electricity demand is primarily met by renewable energy sources [6]. - By 2035, a new power system that supports high proportions of renewable energy will be fundamentally established, with a unified national electricity market playing a crucial role in resource allocation [6]. Group 2: Classification Guidance for Renewable Energy Development and Consumption - The guidelines advocate for the coordinated development of renewable energy bases in desert and arid regions, promoting both local consumption and external delivery [7]. - There is a focus on optimizing the integrated development of hydropower, wind, and solar energy, particularly in southwestern regions with large hydropower bases [8]. Group 3: New Models and Innovative Development for Renewable Energy Consumption - The guidelines encourage the development of new business models for renewable energy consumption, such as integrated source-grid-load-storage systems and smart microgrids [10]. - Support is provided for the integration of renewable energy with industrial development, particularly in high-energy-consuming industries transitioning to cleaner energy sources [9]. Group 4: Enhancing the Adaptability of the New Power System to Renewable Energy - The guidelines call for the acceleration of system regulation capabilities, including the construction of pumped storage power stations and the promotion of advanced storage technologies [11]. - There is an emphasis on improving the grid's capacity to accept renewable energy, including the development of a new grid platform that enhances collaboration between main and distribution networks [11]. Group 5: Improving the National Unified Electricity Market System for Renewable Energy Consumption - The guidelines propose expanding a multi-level market system for renewable energy consumption, allowing for flexible trading mechanisms and promoting long-term purchase agreements [14]. - There is a focus on establishing market rules that accommodate the unique characteristics of renewable energy generation and distribution [15]. Group 6: Strengthening Technological Innovation Support for Renewable Energy Consumption - The guidelines highlight the need for breakthroughs in efficient renewable energy generation technologies, including advancements in solar and wind power [16]. - Emphasis is placed on the development of intelligent control technologies that enhance the dynamic sensing capabilities of the grid [17]. Group 7: Assurance Measures - The guidelines stress the importance of optimizing management mechanisms for renewable energy consumption, including setting regional utilization targets and ensuring coordinated planning [18]. - Responsibilities are clearly defined among various stakeholders, including government agencies, grid companies, and power generation enterprises, to ensure effective implementation of renewable energy consumption strategies [19].