智通财经APP获悉，中信建投发布研报称，2025年1-11月，中国钢铁行业在需求疲弱的背景下实现了显 著的利润修复，呈现出"总量收缩但利润增长"的独特现象。黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业实现利润总额 1115亿元，同比大幅增长1752.2%。这一成绩并非来自需求扩张，而是行业在成本让利、供给自律与产 品结构升级等多重因素共同作用下的成果。成本端实质性让利是本次利润改善的首要因素。 展望2026年，钢铁行业将延续"供给收缩、需求承压"的弱平衡格局。铁矿石供需转向宽松(西芒杜项目 放量)、政策端持续推动产能压减，为成本优化提供空间；但地产下行周期难逆转，普钢需求承压态势 或将延续。行业能否巩固利润修复成果，取决于高端产品竞争力构建与自律生产机制的持续性，通过技 术创新与精益管理锻造核心竞争力。 这表明行业正从规模扩张转向价值创造，高端化转型成效初显。出口超预期增长为国内过剩产能提供了 分流渠道。1-11月钢材出口量达1.08万吨，同比增长6.7%，有效对冲了国内建筑用钢需求下滑的压力。 此外，行业自律性增强，"反内卷"政策及"三定三不要"原则的落实，避免了恶性竞争，助力价格企稳。 尽管利润总额大幅提升，行业深层矛盾仍未 ...

晨报 成材 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 原材料：程 鹏 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成材：供需双弱 震荡运行 逻辑：国务院总理李强主持召开国务院"十五五"规划《纲要草案》 编制工作领导小组会议，深入研究《纲要草案》编制工作。李强指出，要 谋划一批能够带动全局的重大工程、重大项目、重大载体，既为未来发展 积聚新动能、培育竞争力，又为当前扩大内需、稳定经济运行提供支撑。 2025 年 11 月，中国钢材出口多数品类出口环比由降转升，出口结构呈现 明显轮动，板材内部出现分化：连续多月居首的镀层板出口环比回落 13.7%，至 175.3 万吨；热轧出口环比由降转增，回升至单月出口量第一 位。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 成材昨日震荡整理，价格波幅不大， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [6][12]. Core Insights - The company reported significant performance recovery with a focus on optimizing product structure. In H1 2025, revenue was 63.092 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.93%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.748 billion yuan, an increase of 31.31% year-on-year [1]. - The company is experiencing a decline in steel sales but has seen a notable recovery in gross margin, which reached 10.28% in H1 2025, up 2.91 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the total steel sales volume was 11.1 million tons, a decrease of 12.5% year-on-year. Major product categories saw declines, except for coated steel [2]. - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 10.28%, with long products, flat products, and pipes showing respective margins of 5.45%, 13.65%, and 10.89%, all increasing year-on-year [2]. Future Outlook - The company is releasing high-end production capacity, with projects like the cold-rolled silicon steel line and seamless steel pipe production line progressing steadily. The first phase of the non-oriented silicon steel is expected to be operational by August 2025 [3]. - The product structure is being optimized, with key product sales accounting for 68.5% of total sales, an increase of 3.9 percentage points year-on-year. The company has developed 75 new products, achieving six domestic firsts or import substitutions [3]. Cost Management and Efficiency - The company is implementing cost reduction measures across its operations, with 32% of its economic and technical indicators entering the advanced category. Adjustments in structure have led to a reduction in procurement costs by approximately 250 million yuan [4]. - The self-generated electricity reached 4.922 billion kWh in the reporting period, an increase of 3.4% year-on-year, contributing to operational efficiency [4]. Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 3.465 billion yuan, 3.993 billion yuan, and 4.434 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 11x, 10x, and 9x [5][9].

Core Insights - Shandong Steel Group has shown significant improvement in profitability, reducing losses by 2.086 billion yuan year-on-year from January to July, achieving profitability for five consecutive months [3] - The company has implemented a dual-driven development model focusing on both industrial and capital operations, enhancing efficiency and value extraction from non-steel industries [4][5] - The steel industry is experiencing a transformation towards high-quality, sustainable growth, moving away from traditional scale expansion [5] Financial Performance - From January to July, Shandong Steel Group's subsidiaries, including Shandong Steel Co. and Jining Mining, reported substantial profit increases, with Shandong Steel Co. achieving a profit total of 6.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 13.52% [3] - The company’s capital operations have been bolstered by its entry into the Shanghai bill trading platform, enhancing its role in the steel ecosystem [4] Strategic Developments - Under the new leadership of Zhang Baochai, the company has made strategic adjustments to focus on core steel operations and the development of non-steel industries [4] - The company is leveraging synergies from Baosteel's support for its steel segment, aiming to reduce costs and improve quality in key areas [4] Industry Context - The steel industry is undergoing a significant restructuring, with a focus on self-discipline and maintaining a balanced supply-demand dynamic, resulting in improved profit margins for compliant companies [7] - The reduction in raw material prices has provided a favorable cost environment for Shandong Steel Group, contributing to its profitability [7] Market Opportunities - The shift towards green transformation and ultra-low emissions in the steel industry presents multiple growth opportunities for Shandong Steel Group [8] - Despite a decline in demand for construction steel, there is growth in demand from infrastructure investment and manufacturing sectors, indicating resilience in the market [8] Future Outlook - The company is positioned to capitalize on the ongoing industry transition towards high-end products and green technologies, potentially transforming into a comprehensive materials service provider [10][13] - The focus on high-end steel products and international expansion will be crucial for Shandong Steel Group to navigate the challenges posed by overcapacity and competition [11][13]

▍ 2 0 2 5年Q1有望成为钢铁行业长期业绩拐点。 根据国家统计局数据，2 0 2 5年Q1全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额1 5 0 9 3 . 6亿元，同比增长0 . 8%。其中黑色金属冶炼和压 延加工业利润总额7 5 . 1亿元，成为继2 0 2 2年Q1后首个盈利的一季度。今年一季度钢铁企业效益逐步改善，重点钢铁企业营业 成本同比下降9 . 6%，钢材产品平均销售利润率同比上升0 . 6 7个百分点。此外，钢材产品的结构持续优化，一季度，建筑用钢 筋产量4 8 11万吨，下降了2 . 9%；用于制造领域的特厚板、中板、涂层板、镀层板产量同比增长都超过了1 0%，合计产量3 8 8 4 万吨；粗钢的产量基本保持稳定，全国粗钢产量2 . 5 9亿吨，同比微增0 . 6%。 我们预计 2 0 2 5年是中国钢铁行业的拐点年份。2 0 2 5年Q1有望成为钢铁行业长期业绩拐点。随着行业改革的深入，产能产量的 持续性削减将势在必行。供应端有望带来产量超预期收缩。同时随着钢铁行业"推进整合重组，推动落后低效产能退出"的持续 推进，预计产业链利润将持续进行再分配，而钢铁行业将在再分配中受益。我们认为当前在估值底 ...