AIDC和BESS双线发力 abc 2025 年 12 月 16 日 Global Research 首次覆盖 科士达 AIDC和BESS推动增长加速，首次覆盖评为买入 我们首次覆盖科士达（中国领先不间断电源（UPS）制造商），给予买入评 级，目标价为60.1元。我们预计科士达在2025-27财年每股盈余年复合增长 率将达到44%，高于市场共识的29%，因为我们更看好其在全球UPS市场份 额增长和电池储能（BESS）出货量回升。随着AIDC资本开支增长，我们相 信科士达可与合同制造商达成战略合作从而加快海外市场扩张。此外，我们 预计新一代产品，如高压直流（HVDC），固态变压器（SST）将支撑长期盈 利增长。同时，我们预计2025-27年公司电池储能系统（BESS）业务收入显 著反弹，CAGR将达30%，主要得益于全球BESS需求复苏。 AIDC电力产品增长势头提升 我们看到科士达数据中心产品（主要是UPS）海外在手订单强劲（此类产品 约占H125公司毛利润的70%），反映AIDC需求大增。Q325以来公司在美国 市场的扩张势头增强；鉴于其通过ODM制造与关键客户建立紧密合作，我 们预计其在海外扩张方面有望超 ...

行业点评：国内 AI 资本开支加速，AIDC 需求强化 [Table_Industry] 电力设备与新能源 [Table_ReportDat] 2025 年 12 月 5 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 [行Tabl 业点评报告 e_ReportType] [电Table_StockAndRank] 力设备与新能源 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 胡琎心 电新行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500525080001 联系电话：010-83326711 姚云峰 电力设备与新能源行业联系人 联系电话：18840829584 邮 箱：yaoyunfeng@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 [国内Table_T AI 资本开支加速， itle] AIDC 需求强化 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 12 月 5 日 本期核心观点 事件：11 月 25 日，阿里巴巴集团发布 2026 财年第二季度业绩，在旺盛的 AI 需求推动下，阿里云整体收入同比强劲增长 34%，其中 ...

Group 1: AI Market Growth - The global AI market is experiencing rapid growth, with a projected market size of approximately $23.4 billion in 2024 and an expected increase to $274.5 billion by 2032, reflecting a CAGR of 36% [1] Group 2: Power Supply Challenges in the US - The current power capacity of data centers in the US is nearing its limit, with over 400 GW of power supply requests reaching 57% of the national peak load, but the actual implementation rate is only about 20% [4] - Microsoft CEO Nadella highlighted that a significant amount of AI chips (GPUs) are idle due to insufficient power and cooling capacity in data center rack space, rendering high-performance chips ineffective [4] Group 3: Investment in Power Distribution Systems - For a 5MW data center, the distribution system accounts for 55% of the construction cost, while the cooling system represents 19% [7] - The power supply system is evolving towards 800V/±400V high voltage direct current systems due to increased IT load power and limited physical space in data centers [9] Group 4: Company Performance - Siyi Electric - Siyi Electric, established in 1993, has become a leading private power equipment manufacturer in China, with a diverse product range and strong EPC capabilities [11] - In 2023, Siyi Electric achieved overseas revenue of 2.158 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.71%, with new overseas orders reaching 4.01 billion yuan, up 34% [14] - The company is expected to reach overseas revenue of 3.122 billion yuan in 2024, a growth of 44.67%, with overseas orders accounting for 20.2% of total revenue [14] Group 5: Company Performance - Jinpan Technology - Jinpan Technology's dry-type transformers are key products for the AI data center market, meeting the stringent power supply stability and efficiency requirements [23] - In the first three quarters of 2025, Jinpan Technology's revenue from AIDC and IDC sectors surged to 974 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 337%, making it a significant part of the company's total revenue [23] - The company reported a revenue growth of 8.25% in the first three quarters of 2025, with net profit growth reaching 20.27%, indicating improved profitability [26]

Summary of Jinpan Technology Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Jinpan Technology - **Industry**: Power Infrastructure and AI Computing Key Financial Metrics - Gross margin reached **28.06%** [2][3] - Net operating cash flow of **1.78 billion** CNY, marking a significant turnaround [2][3] - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was **5.194 billion** CNY, with net profit growth exceeding **20%** [3] Revenue Growth - Revenue in the AI computing infrastructure sector approached **1 billion** CNY, with a year-on-year growth of over **337%** [2][3] - Wind power revenue increased by **71%**, while power generation and supply revenue grew by **35%** [2][3] - Overseas revenue grew by approximately **40%** in the first three quarters of 2025 [4] Market Trends and Opportunities - The North American market shows a significant demand for power infrastructure due to advancements in AI technology [2][9] - Jinpan Technology is well-prepared for digital transformation and plans to initiate smart manufacturing in the upcoming five-year plan [9] - The easing of US-China trade tensions is expected to boost sales orders, with optimism for the export situation in 2026 [5][12] Product Development - Progress in High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) and Solid State Transformer (SST) technologies, with the first SST unit launched and a 2.0 version in development [2][6] - The SST product is gaining traction in the North American market due to its higher efficiency, lower cost, and smaller footprint [10] - The company is addressing challenges in the development of megawatt-level SST products, focusing on rectifier modules and yield improvements [7] R&D and Technological Advancements - Jinpan Technology has successfully resolved various technical challenges through innovative methods and has a clear roadmap for future technology development [8] - The SST product's reliability and efficiency are currently at **98%**, with ongoing optimizations [17] Competitive Landscape - Jinpan Technology's competitive advantages include extensive experience in high-voltage products and proprietary technology in power electronics [20][22] - The company emphasizes high performance and reliability in its products, differentiating itself from competitors [22] Market Acceptance and Challenges - The acceptance of SST products in the US market is strong, with major companies showing interest in the technology [10] - The US distribution transformer market is experiencing price increases due to supply shortages and rising raw material costs, benefiting Chinese brands [23] Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued growth in the renewable energy sector, particularly in wind and solar, as well as in data center operations driven by AI demand [15][19] - Jinpan Technology is optimistic about expanding its overseas production capacity, particularly in Malaysia, Mexico, and the US, in response to global demand [12][13] Conclusion Jinpan Technology is positioned for significant growth in the power infrastructure and AI computing sectors, with strong financial performance, innovative product development, and a favorable market outlook driven by technological advancements and easing trade tensions.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call primarily discusses **Huawei** and its developments in the **data center** and **high-performance computing** sectors, particularly focusing on the **384 node system** and advancements in **liquid cooling** and **high voltage direct current (HVDC)** technologies. Core Insights and Arguments - **384 Node System**: The 384 node system is considered a transitional product with performance improvements over the 920B model, but still lacking in certain precision operations. Future products like the 950 and 960 are expected to enhance performance further [1][3][5] - **HVDC Adoption**: Huawei plans to adopt **800V or higher HVDC** systems to improve power supply efficiency and reduce energy consumption. A mixed mode of AC to DC UPS and HVDC is anticipated to be implemented by 2025-2026 [1][4][10] - **Liquid Cooling Technology**: Liquid cooling has become a standard configuration, with the 920C model reaching a maximum power of **600W**, while the upcoming 950 and 960 models are expected to reach **1,000W** and **1,200W** respectively. Liquid cooling is deemed necessary for high power density applications despite its higher cost compared to air cooling [1][11][14] - **Cost Analysis**: The cost of a liquid cooling system is approximately **20,000 yuan per square meter**, with a total cabinet cost around **120,000 yuan**. In contrast, air cooling systems cost between **15,000 to 20,000 yuan per square meter**, totaling around **80,000 yuan** for a cabinet [14][15] - **Market Projections**: Expected shipments for the 920C model in 2025 are around **300,000 units**, while the 920B is projected at **600,000 units**. The 950 model is set to launch in Q1 2026, but with lower yield rates [3][24][25] Additional Important Insights - **Partnerships**: Huawei's SVDC project collaborates with partners like **Kehua** and **Bank of China** to advance project development [7] - **UPS Systems**: The company utilizes both international brands like **Schneider**, **ABB**, and **Vertiv**, as well as domestic brands like **Kehua** in its UPS solutions, aiming for localization [8] - **Microchannel Technology**: This technology is being explored for high heat dissipation needs, particularly in the 950 series chips, although it currently has high material costs [20][22] - **Future Trends**: The data center industry is expected to gradually transition to liquid cooling systems, especially as power demands increase beyond **30 kW** per cabinet [28][29] - **Reliability Measures**: The 2N configuration in data center power systems ensures high reliability, with a design that allows for 99.9% uptime even in dual power failure scenarios [30][31] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting Huawei's strategic direction in the data center and cooling technology sectors.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The data center power supply is transitioning from AC UPS architecture to High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) and Solid State Transformers (SST) to meet increasing computing density demands, improve conversion efficiency, and reduce footprint [1][4] - The domestic UPS market remains dominant, but HVDC solutions are being actively adopted by internet operators [1][4] - The overseas market has a pressing demand for HVDC due to rapid increases in computing density, which significantly enhances overall efficiency by improving conversion rates and saving cabinet space [1][6] Core Insights and Arguments - Domestic enterprises are making rapid progress in SST applications, with pilot projects in the "East Data West Computing" initiative [1][5] - Major companies like Tencent and Alibaba are adopting HVDC combined with direct power supply from the grid, collaborating with firms like Zhongheng and Delta for higher integration [1][5] - The main advantages of transitioning to HVDC include reduced AC conversion stages, improved conversion efficiency, lower operational costs, space savings, and better integration of renewable energy sources [1][11] - The data center DC power market is expected to experience rapid growth from 2026 to 2028, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 30% [1][12] Current Market Landscape - The current domestic and overseas data center power supply primarily uses AC UPS architecture, which is mature and dominated by companies like Eaton, Huawei, and Kehua [3][13] - The HVDC and SST markets are still in their infancy, with domestic companies like Zhongheng and Zhongda actively engaged in R&D [3][13][14] - The transition to HVDC will drive upgrades in power supply components, such as low-voltage electrical devices evolving into DC circuit breakers [3][16] Key Developments by Major Companies - Nvidia plans to launch an 800V architecture by 2027, which will utilize a large module to convert 10kV AC to 800V DC, enhancing efficiency for high-power data centers [8][10] - Google is adopting a ±400V power supply scheme and plans to transition to SST, while Meta is using a similar architecture in its HBRV4 framework [9][10] - Microsoft has proposed two power supply solutions: a ±400V CLL edge cabinet solution and a future integrated SST solution [10] Future Trends and Opportunities - The shift towards HVDC is expected to disrupt the existing UPS supply chain, allowing domestic companies to gain a foothold in the market [17] - Key components benefiting from HVDC transition include low-voltage electrical devices and relays, which will see upgrades to higher voltage standards [18] - The integration of green electricity and the push for carbon neutrality are driving the adoption of HVDC systems, presenting significant opportunities for domestic enterprises [16][17] Conclusion - The data center power supply market is on the brink of transformation, with HVDC and SST technologies poised to redefine efficiency and operational capabilities. The expected growth in the DC power market and the strategic moves by major tech companies indicate a robust future for this sector, particularly for domestic players who can leverage their R&D advantages [12][17]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The global AIDC capacity is expected to reach 20 GW by 2025, 30 GW by 2026, and 47 GW by 2027, reflecting rapid advancements in big data, cloud computing, and AI technologies [1][4] - The market for 10 kV step-down transformers is projected to reach 17.3 billion yuan by 2027, while the circuit breaker market is expected to reach 27 to 27.1 billion yuan [1][4] Market Growth and Projections - The Chinese intelligent computing infrastructure market is anticipated to exceed $135.6 billion by 2025, a growth of approximately 54% from $87.6 billion in 2023, driven by policy support, technological breakthroughs, and application demand [1][6] - The global hyperscale data center market is expected to surpass $80 billion by 2024 and grow to $935 billion by 2032, with major shares held by the US, Europe, and Asia-Pacific regions [1][7] Technological Developments - The evolution of data center power supply architecture has progressed through three generations: traditional AC UPS, high-voltage direct current (HVDC), and solid-state transformers (SST), aiming to enhance energy efficiency, reliability, and power density [1][11] - SSTs are seen as the optimal solution for future data center power systems, offering higher energy efficiency, faster response times, and better reliability [2][11] Demand for Power Equipment - The demand for transformers is expected to reach 7.6 billion yuan in 2025 and exceed 17.3 billion yuan by 2027, while circuit breaker demand is projected to surpass 10 billion yuan in 2025 and reach 27.1 billion yuan by 2027 [2][10] - Domestic manufacturers are expected to gain market share in the rapidly growing data center market due to their cost and efficiency advantages [2][15] Investment Opportunities - Investors are advised to focus on companies like Jinpan Technology and Liangxin Co., which are well-positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for traditional power equipment [8][19] - Companies involved in SST technology, such as Sungrow Power Supply, Shenghong Co., and New Special Electric, are also highlighted for their potential investment value [9][19] Circuit Breaker Functionality - Circuit breakers play a critical role in power protection systems, providing fault isolation, equipment protection, and system stability, especially in HVDC systems [2][9] Future of Solid-State Transformers - SSTs are expected to see rapid growth in application penetration as costs decrease, with significant demand anticipated in data centers, renewable energy generation, ultra-fast charging stations, smart grids, and industrial transportation [3][18] Conclusion - The AIDC industry is experiencing significant growth, leading to increased demand for power equipment, particularly transformers and circuit breakers. The transition to advanced technologies like SSTs presents substantial investment opportunities in the sector [19]

Summary of Data Center Power Supply Trends Industry Overview - The data center power supply is transitioning from traditional AC UPS systems to high voltage direct current (HVDC) and solid-state transformer (SST) solutions, aimed at improving efficiency and accommodating renewable energy integration. Currently, AC power supply remains mainstream, but HVDC is a clear trend [1][2][4]. Key Points and Arguments - **Efficiency Improvements**: HVDC architecture reduces AC-DC conversion stages, lowering energy loss and enhancing overall conversion efficiency. It also saves cabinet space, making it more suitable for integrating renewable energy sources like photovoltaics [1][6]. - **Adoption by Major Companies**: Overseas data centers are rapidly adopting HVDC solutions, while domestic companies like Alibaba and Tencent are using 240V/336V DC systems. Domestic firms are actively developing HVDC and SST technologies to meet market demand [1][2][7]. - **Market Growth Projections**: The data center power supply market is expected to grow rapidly, particularly in high-computing scenarios where HVDC demand is clear. The penetration rate of HVDC solutions is anticipated to continue increasing, significantly expanding market space [1][8]. - **Technological Advancements**: The future of data center power supply is focused on HVDC and SST applications. Companies like Google and Microsoft are already proposing SST-based future solutions, indicating a shift towards HVDC [4][11]. - **Component Demand Increase**: The development of data center power systems will drive demand for components such as circuit breakers, relays, and fuses. Domestic companies are likely to benefit from the HVDC trend, enhancing product pricing and market space [2][11][12]. Additional Important Insights - **Domestic vs. Overseas Market Dynamics**: While overseas data centers are rapidly upgrading their power supply systems, domestic companies are catching up. The domestic market primarily uses low-voltage DC systems, but there is a growing trend towards HVDC and SST technologies [7][10]. - **Competitive Landscape**: The UPS supply chain, previously dominated by foreign and Taiwanese companies, is undergoing transformation. Domestic companies are closing the technological gap and leveraging their innovation and responsiveness to enter overseas supply chains [10][13]. - **Focus Areas for Future Development**: In addition to the overall power supply system, attention should be given to key components like circuit breakers and the "source-network-load-storage" segment, which are crucial for future development [14]. This summary encapsulates the key trends and insights regarding the evolution of data center power supply systems, highlighting the shift towards HVDC and SST technologies and the implications for market dynamics and competitive positioning.