证券研究报告 公司研究 / 公司深度 2025 年 12 月 23 日 受益 HVDC 渗透率提升，出海带动业绩 高增 电力设备 | 报告原因： | | --- | | 买入（首次评级） | | 市场数据： | 2025 | 年 | 月 | 22 | 日 | | | 12 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | | 24.65 | | | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | | | | | | 32.85/8.15 | | | | 市净率 | | | | | | 5.7 | | | | 股息率（分红/股价） | | | | | | 0.40 | | | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | | | | | | 13,757 | | | | 上证指数/深证成指 | | | | | | | 3,917/13,333 | | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | | | | | | | | 基础数据： | | 2025 | 年 | 09 | 月 30 | 日 | | --- | --- | ...

Core Insights - The report highlights that the macroeconomic environment in 2026 will be influenced by U.S. midterm election pressures, defense demands in Europe and Japan, and China's focus on stable growth, leading to continued policy easing in the first half of the year [2] - The AI boom is expected to enhance efficiency and stock valuations but may also exacerbate job losses and economic K-shaped divergence [2] - The report suggests that the second half of 2026 may see a rebound in inflation due to global liquidity easing, a weaker dollar, and China's anti-involution efforts, potentially causing volatility in high-valuation assets [2] Industry Outlook Chinese Internet Software - 2026 is seen as a critical year for competing for user attention in the AI era, with a focus on lowering usage barriers, enhancing decision-making efficiency, and creating real value [2] - Companies with stable cash flows supporting AI investments and strong operational capabilities are expected to have higher long-term investment value [5] Semiconductor - The report maintains four core investment themes for 2026: AI-driven structural growth, China's semiconductor self-sufficiency trend, high-yield defensive allocations, and industry consolidation [7] - The global semiconductor market is projected to grow by 26% to $975 billion in 2026, with AI-related segments leading the growth [7] Technology - The global tech industry is expected to experience demand differentiation and accelerated AI innovation, with a focus on AI computing infrastructure and end-user AI products [8] - Key companies to watch include Apple, which is anticipated to have a year of innovation with new AI products [8] Consumer Sectors Essential Consumption - The report identifies three main investment themes: deepening consumption stratification, focusing on essential survival needs, and leveraging overseas expansion to hedge against domestic uncertainties [10][20] - Companies in the food and beverage sector, such as Nongfu Spring and China Resources Beverages, are recommended due to their stable demand and attractive valuations [21] Discretionary Consumption - The outlook for the discretionary consumption sector is cautious, with expected retail sales growth of about 3.5% in 2026, slightly down from 4% in 2025 [11] - The report suggests a focus on survival-type consumption and low-cost emotional comfort products, with recommendations for companies like Luckin Coffee and Bosideng [11][21] Automotive - The Chinese automotive industry is expected to show resilience despite pressures from subsidy reductions and tax incentives, with retail sales of passenger vehicles projected to remain stable [12] - Key trends include intensified competition and the introduction of new models, particularly in the new energy vehicle segment [12] Pharmaceuticals - The innovative drug sector has seen significant growth driven by overseas licensing deals, but future catalysts are expected to shift from upfront payments to milestone achievements [13] - The CXO industry is anticipated to continue its recovery in 2026, supported by a rebound in domestic R&D demand [13] Real Estate - The report forecasts a continued contraction in the real estate market, with total residential sales expected to decline by 8% in 2026 [16][17] - Investment themes include focusing on stock market service providers and companies with strong operational capabilities in commercial assets [18][19]

前言 市场迷雾重重，还在为抓不住市场热点而焦虑？《掘金板块牛熊》帮你精准把握风格切换信号，带领你 看懂热钱的情绪周期。 每个交易日午间解密当天盘面热点的核心逻辑，《掘金板块牛熊》让你踩准市 场节奏，财富增值不迷路！ ①牛榜 - AI算力爆发催生的"电力革命" 已来？数据中心电源概念走强，欧陆通涨超10%，科泰电 源、科华数据、爱科赛博、中恒电气、麦格米特等跟涨。这一赛道是短期资金博弈的"昙花一现"？ ②牛榜 - 福建板块持续活跃。安记食品6连板，此前已有多股涨停，龙洲股份5连板，舒华体育4连 板，东百集团、厦门港务3连板，安妮股份2连板，海欣食品、日上集团跟涨。 ③熊榜 - 有色铜继续下挫，中国中冶、海南矿业、洛阳钼业等领跌。背后原因是什么？高"含铜量"的 标的要留吗？ 点击付费阅读，解密今日盘面热点的核心逻辑！ ...

Core Viewpoint - The market experienced a downward trend in early trading on October 17, with significant declines in major indices, reflecting a mixed performance across various sectors [1] Market Performance - The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index both fell over 2% at one point during the trading session [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.18 trillion, a decrease of 32.6 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] - By the end of the trading session, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.99%, the ChiNext Index by 2.37%, and the Sci-Tech 50 Index by 2.62% [1] Sector Performance - Defensive sectors showed strong performance, with coal and gas stocks collectively rising; Da You Energy achieved five consecutive trading limits in six days, while Guo Xin Energy had three trading limits in four days [1] - The banking sector experienced fluctuations, with Agricultural Bank of China rising over 2% to reach a historical high [1] - Conversely, the data center power supply concept faced significant declines, with stocks like Igor and Zhongheng Electric hitting the daily limit down [1] - Major weight stocks such as Sunshine Power, ZTE, and Luxshare Precision saw substantial drops [1] Leading and Lagging Sectors - The sectors with the highest gains included gas, precious metals, port shipping, and coal [1] - In contrast, sectors such as wind power and photovoltaics experienced the largest declines [1]

Market Overview - The market experienced a downward trend in the early session, with the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index dropping over 2% at one point [1] - As of the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.99%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.37% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.18 trillion, a decrease of 32.6 billion compared to the previous trading day [1][6] Index Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3877.20, down by 1.00 points, with 498 gainers and 1743 decliners [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12825.85, down by 1.99 points, with 597 gainers and 2225 decliners [2] - The ChiNext Index closed at 2965.47, down by 2.37 points, with 221 gainers and 1157 decliners [2] Sector Performance - Defensive sectors such as coal and gas stocks showed strong performance, with major energy stocks experiencing significant gains [2][3] - The port and shipping sector continued its strong trend, with Haitong Development achieving two consecutive trading limits [2] - Conversely, sectors like data center power concepts faced severe declines, with stocks like Igor and Zhongheng Electric hitting the daily limit down [2] Market Sentiment - 50.76% of users expressed a bullish outlook on the market [4] - The market saw 1128 stocks rise, 174 remain unchanged, and 4136 stocks decline [5]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a volatile decline in the morning session, with the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index dropping over 2% at one point [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.18 trillion, a decrease of 32.6 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - The port and shipping sector continued its strong performance, with Haitong Development achieving two consecutive trading limits [1] - Defensive sectors showed active performance, with coal and gas stocks collectively strengthening; Dayou Energy recorded five trading limits in six days, and Guo New Energy had three trading limits in four days [1] - The banking sector saw a rebound, with Agricultural Bank of China rising over 2% to reach a historical high [3] - Conversely, the data center power supply concept faced significant declines, with stocks like Igor and Zhongheng Electric hitting the daily limit down [3] - Major weight stocks such as Sungrow Power Supply, ZTE, and Luxshare Precision experienced substantial drops [3] Closing Summary - By the end of the trading session, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1%, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 1.99%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 2.37% [3] - Sectors with notable gains included gas, precious metals, port and shipping, and coal, while wind power and photovoltaic sectors saw significant declines [3]

Core Insights - The future of AI data centers will standardize on 800V DC power architecture, with solid-state transformers (SST) being the ultimate technology form [1][4] - NVIDIA's release of the 800V DC white paper at the OCP Global Summit signals a significant shift in the power supply landscape for AI data centers [1][4] - High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) is gaining traction as it offers higher efficiency and reliability compared to traditional AC power systems [1][3] HVDC Overview - HVDC, or High Voltage Direct Current, is a power supply method that is more efficient than the commonly used AC power, reducing energy loss and improving reliability [1] - Despite the growing interest, global HVDC penetration remains below 3%, highlighting a disparity between market enthusiasm and actual implementation [5][6] Market Dynamics - NVIDIA's commitment to 800V DC is prompting other players in the supply chain, including CoreWeave and Foxconn, to adopt similar strategies [5] - Major tech companies like Google, Microsoft, and Meta are testing ±400V DC architectures, indicating a shift towards direct current solutions [5] - The global HVDC market is projected to exceed $15.68 billion by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.9% [6] Competitive Landscape - The HVDC market is characterized by high barriers to entry, with few players capable of integrating power electronics and system integration [19][20] - Chinese companies are well-positioned to lead in the HVDC space due to their existing experience in UPS and modular power systems [20][21] - Domestic firms like Zhongheng Electric and Kehua Data are already forming partnerships and securing contracts with major cloud service providers [26][27] Technological Evolution - The transition to HVDC involves multiple phases, starting with the integration of 800V DC power cabinets into existing facilities [9] - Solid-state transformers (SST) are seen as a potential future solution, but they are still in the experimental stage and face challenges in cost and reliability [10][11][12] - A hybrid architecture combining traditional grid supply with HVDC is emerging as a practical solution for data centers [12][13] Conclusion - The HVDC market is rapidly evolving, with NVIDIA's white paper providing a clearer direction for the industry [33] - Domestic companies are poised to capitalize on the opportunities presented by the shift towards HVDC, as they have the necessary technological foundations and market experience [34][35]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for stock index futures is "bullish", and for treasury bond futures is "sideways" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market fluctuated strongly throughout the day, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning above 3,900 points. The Sino - US trade dispute may impact the index in the short term, but there are still many uncertainties. Before the important meeting on October 20th, the index may be in an adjustment phase. Some domestic securities firms have adjusted the margin conversion ratio of some individual stocks from 60% to 0, which may affect the valuation of technology stocks if leveraged funds leave the market in the short term. However, the long - term upward momentum of the index mainly comes from internal policy expectations, and the short - term decline in IV may be a buying opportunity. One can deploy small - position out - of - the - money call options for November. For treasury bond futures, the central bank's operations have led to a marginal loosening of the capital market, and the escalation of the Sino - US tariff war has increased risk - aversion sentiment [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On October 15, 2025, IH was at 2,997.4, up 39.0 or 1.32% from the previous day; IF was at 4,576.4, up 69.2 or 1.54%; IC was at 7,140.2, up 130.2 or 1.86%; IM was at 7,275.2, up 129.4 or 1.81% [3] - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai 50 Index was at 3,001.3, up 40.2 or 1.36%; the CSI 300 Index was at 4,606.3, up 67.2 or 1.48%; the CSI 500 Index was at 7,294.0, up 99.2 or 1.38%; the CSI 1000 Index was at 7,483.4, up 110.3 or 1.50% [3] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On October 15, 2025, TS was at 102.38, unchanged; TF was at 105.73, down 0.045 or - 0.04%; T was at 108.13, down 0.04 or - 0.04%; TL was at 114.58, down 0.18 or - 0.16% [3] 3.2 Market News - **Overall Trend**: The market fluctuated strongly throughout the day, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning above 3,900 points. Over 4,300 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets rose, and the trading volume was 2.09 trillion yuan. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.22%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.73%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.36% [5] - **Industry Sectors**: Robot, innovative drugs, automobile manufacturing, and smart grid sectors led the gains, while shipping ports, agriculture, lithography machines, and rare - earth permanent magnets sectors declined [5] - **Popular Concepts**: Robot concept stocks strengthened, with many stocks such as Sanhua Intelligent Control and Wuzhou Spring hitting the daily limit. The innovative drug sector rose, with Anglikang and Lianhuan Pharmaceutical hitting the limit. Automobile manufacturing stocks soared, with Zhongtong Bus and Haima Automobile hitting the limit. The data center power supply concept was active, with Heshun Electric and Jinpan Technology hitting the limit. On the decline side, lithography machine concept stocks continued to adjust, with Xinlaiyingcai falling more than 10% [5] 3.3 Chart Analysis 3.3.1 Stock Index Futures - The report provides charts of the trends and basis of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, including the trends of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures closing prices and their basis [7][8][9][10][11] 3.3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The report provides charts of the trends, yields, basis, inter - period spreads, inter - variety spreads, and capital interest rates of treasury bond futures main contracts, including the trends of TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts, yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds, and related basis and spread data [14][15][16][17][18][20] 3.3.3 Exchange Rates - The report provides charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and exchange rates of the US dollar index, euro against the US dollar, pound against the US dollar, and US dollar against the yen [23][24][26][28][31] 3.4 Member Introduction - Zhu Jintao, a master of economics from Jilin University, is the director of macro - financial research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with futures qualification number F3060829 and futures trading consultation qualification number Z0015271 [32] - Wang Dongying, an index analyst with a master's degree from Columbia University, mainly tracks stock index futures, responsible for macro - fundamental quantification, key industry sector research, index financial report analysis, and market capital tracking, with futures qualification number F03087149 and futures trading consultation qualification number Z0019537 [32]

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - China's inflation moderately rebounded in September, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has increased [1]. - Amid rising China-US tariff frictions, there are risks of tariff escalation before the South Korea APEC Summit from October 28th to November 1st [2]. - The US government shutdown has entered its third week, and the market has underestimated the severity of the situation. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates [3]. - For commodities, focus on sectors such as gold and non-ferrous metals. Consider going long on industrial products and precious metals at low prices [4][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In August, China faced increased economic pressure with weak industrial, investment, and consumption data, along with rising external tariff pressure. The government has proposed policies to stabilize growth, with new policy - based financial instruments totaling 500 billion yuan [1]. - In September, China's exports and imports in US dollars both exceeded expectations. M2 and M1 growth rates changed, and the M1 - M2 gap narrowed. Newly added social financing decreased, mainly due to slower government bond financing. The growth of RMB loans was affected by weak short - term consumer loans [1]. - In September, China's CPI decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, and the core CPI returned to 1% for the first time in 19 months. The decline in PPI narrowed to 2.3%, higher than market expectations. There is still room for incremental policies in the fourth quarter to support prices [1]. - On October 15th, the A - share market strengthened, with the Shanghai Composite Index above 3900 points and over 4300 stocks rising. Robot concept stocks were strong [1]. Tariff Situation - China - US tariff frictions have escalated. The US has taken measures such as adding Chinese companies to the entity list and imposing tariffs on multiple products. China has responded with export controls and other counter - measures. There are risks of tariff escalation before the South Korea APEC Summit [2]. US Government Shutdown - The US government shutdown has entered its third week. Trump has threatened to fire federal employees, and economic data release has been affected. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates, with a 96.7% probability of a 25 - BP cut in October [3]. Commodity Market - For the black sector, downstream demand expectations are weak. The non - ferrous sector is supported by global easing expectations with long - term supply constraints. The energy sector has a relatively loose supply in the medium term, with OPEC+ planning to increase production [4]. - In the chemical sector, there is "anti - involution" space for products like methanol, PVC, caustic soda, and urea. Agricultural products are driven by tariffs and inflation expectations but need fundamental signals and are affected by China - US negotiations [4]. - Precious metals, especially gold, are expected to strengthen due to the US government shutdown and central bank purchases. On October 15th, spot gold exceeded $4200 per ounce, up nearly 1.4% [4]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to go long on industrial products and precious metals at low prices [5]. Key News - China's M2, M1, and M0 money supply growth rates in September changed compared to the previous values. The social financing scale and new RMB loans from January to September increased [7]. - The US government shutdown continues, and the White House plans to continue layoffs while ensuring pay for the military and law enforcement [7]. - Fed Chairman Powell hinted at a possible end to balance - sheet reduction, and the market expects interest rate cuts. The US Treasury Secretary plans to submit Fed chairman candidates after Thanksgiving [7]. - Argentina's stock index fell, and the US said it would stop financial support if President Milei loses the election. Spot gold prices rose [7].

Core Insights - The article highlights the performance of stocks on the institutional leaderboard, with 32 stocks listed, 16 bought, and 16 sold by institutions. The top three stocks with the highest institutional purchases are Jinpan Technology (1.93 billion), Sunflower (1.31 billion), and Meili Technology (915.7 million) [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Jinpan Technology (688676.SS) saw a price increase of 20.00% with 2 buyers and 1 seller [2]. - Sunflower (300111.SZ) experienced a price increase of 19.97% with 3 buyers and 1 seller [2]. - Meili Technology (300611.SZ) also had a price increase of 20.00% with 4 buyers and 2 sellers [2]. Group 2: Industry Trends - Nvidia's recent release of the "800VDC Architecture White Paper" has drawn attention to the high-voltage direct current (HVDC) sector, emphasizing the importance of medium-voltage rectifiers (MV Rectifiers) for deploying 800VDC systems [2]. - The white paper outlines three evolution directions for the 800VDC technology: transitional solutions using external AC/DC racks, hybrid power solutions for 800VDC output, and ultimate solutions utilizing medium-voltage rectifiers or solid-state transformers (SST) [2]. Group 3: Data Center Power Supply - The development direction for data center power supply is identified as UPS → HVDC → Panama Power → SST direct current architecture, with the Panama Power concept proposed by Delta in collaboration with Alibaba, offering higher efficiency and lower investment [3]. - Solid-State Transformers (SST) utilize power electronics for high-frequency power conversion, providing advantages such as high efficiency and space optimization [3]. Group 4: Company Updates - A company reported a revenue of 407 million for its data center power supply business in the first half of the year, marking a year-on-year growth of 60.6%. Their third-generation HVDC product matrix meets the high power density needs of intelligent computing centers, serving major clients like Alibaba, Tencent, and Kuaishou [5]. - Another company, known for its power supply business, is involved in data center construction and operation [5].