公司点评 | 天孚通信 25Q3 毛利率环比改善，积极推进产能建设 天孚通信（300394.SZ）跟踪点评 受全球数据中心需求拉动，前三季度营收增加。2025 前三季度公司营收 39.18 亿元，同比+63.6%，主因全球数据中心建设带动高速光器件产品需求 的持续稳定增长；归母净利润 14.65 亿元，同比+50.1%；经营活动产生的 现金流量净额 13.44 亿元，同比+50.43%，主因销售收入增长带来的回款相 应增加。单 Q3 公司营收 14.63 亿元，同比+74.4%，环比-3.2%；归母净利 润 5.66 亿元，同比+75.7%，环比+0.8%。 毛利率环比改善，费用率环比提升。25Q1/Q2/Q3 公司毛利率分别为 53.05%/49.38%/53.68%，25Q3 毛利率同比-5.36p.p.，环比+4.30p.p.；费 用 率 上 ， 25Q3 公 司 销 售 / 管 理 / 研 发 / 财 务 费 用 率 分 别 为 0.27%/2.53%/5.10%/-0.68%，同比-0.46p.p./-1.71p.p./-2.13p.p./-2.82p.p.， 25Q3 四费率合计 7.23%，同比 ...

2025.11. 16 本文字数：2155，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 魏中原 光通信板块龙头天孚通信（300394.SZ）股价经历年内大幅上涨并于9月初创下历史新高后，公司控 股股东苏州天孚仁和投资管理有限公司（下称"天孚仁和"）近日抛出大规模减持计划。 天孚仁和拟 以询价转让方式减持850万股，若以公告当日收盘价估算，这部分股份市值接近13.2亿元。 值得关注的是，天孚仁和本次转让价格下限设定为公告前20个交易日交易均价的70%，即"七折"出 让，显示出较强的变现意愿，转让原因为"自身资金需求"。 今年以来，伴随CPO（光模块）概念热度攀升，天孚通信作为细分领域龙头股价一路走高，但自高 点以来已回调逾20%，反映市场对其后续走势分歧加剧。尽管公司2025年三季度财报显示业绩依然 亮眼——前三季度营收与净利润分别同比增长63.63%和50.07%，但第三季度业绩环比增速显著放 缓，在此节点上，控股股东大额折价减持是否意味着公司股价已触及阶段性顶部，这也引发投资者对 公司估值压力与未来成长持续性的担忧。 天孚仁和此次减持方案，值得注意的有两点： 一是转让方式为非公开的询价转让 ，受让方限定为符 合 ...

今年以来，伴随CPO（光模块）概念热度攀升，天孚通信作为细分领域龙头股价一路走高，但自高点以 来已回调逾20%，反映市场对其后续走势分歧加剧。尽管公司2025年三季度财报显示业绩依然亮眼—— 前三季度营收与净利润分别同比增长63.63%和50.07%，但第三季度业绩环比增速显著放缓，在此节点 上，控股股东大额折价减持是否意味着公司股价已触及阶段性顶部，这也引发投资者对公司估值压力与 未来成长持续性的担忧。 控股股东折价减持，规模与时机引关注 根据天孚通信11月15日发布的《股东询价转让计划书》，本次减持方天孚仁和为公司控股股东，截至 2025年11月14日持股比例为37.95%，即2.95亿股。天孚仁和此次拟转让股份数量为850万股，占公司总 股本的1.09%，占其自身持股的2.88%。以公告前一日（11月14日）收盘价计算，该笔股份市值约13.2亿 元。 股东朱国栋年内套现逾12亿。 光通信板块龙头天孚通信（300394.SZ）股价经历年内大幅上涨并于9月初创下历史新高后，公司控股股 东苏州天孚仁和投资管理有限公司（下称"天孚仁和"）近日抛出大规模减持计划。天孚仁和拟以询价转 让方式减持850万股，若以公告 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tianfu Communication's third-quarter performance shows a stark contrast between its financial results and stock price, with a significant stock price increase despite negative revenue growth and minimal profit growth [3][5]. Financial Performance - In Q3, Tianfu Communication reported revenue of 39.18 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 63.63%, and a net profit of 14.65 billion yuan, up 50.07% year-on-year [5]. - However, the company experienced a quarter-on-quarter revenue decline of 3.23%, with Q3 revenue at 14.63 billion yuan and net profit at 5.66 billion yuan, showing only a 0.7% increase from the previous quarter [5]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 51.87%, down 6.35 percentage points year-on-year, while the Q3 gross margin was 53.68%, down 5.36 percentage points year-on-year [5]. Market Sentiment and Valuation - Despite disappointing quarterly results, Tianfu Communication's price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) remains above 70 times, raising questions about the sustainability of its high valuation [8]. - Analysts express mixed sentiments, with some predicting short-term challenges in maintaining volume and price, while others remain optimistic about the long-term demand for optical modules driven by AI and data center growth [8][9]. Industry Outlook - The demand for optical devices is expected to continue growing due to the increasing need for computing power and the ongoing construction of global data centers [5][9]. - Analysts from Huatai Securities and other firms believe that Tianfu Communication, as a key player in the optical communication supply chain, is well-positioned to benefit from industry upgrades and the demand for new products [9].

Core Viewpoint - Tianfu Communication reported significant growth in both revenue and net profit for Q3 2025, driven by the demand for artificial intelligence and computing power, as well as the ongoing construction of global data centers [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 1.463 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 74.37% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 566 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 75.68% [1] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the total operating revenue was 3.918 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 63.63% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 1.465 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 50.07% [1] Industry Drivers - The company's performance is attributed to the advancements in artificial intelligence and the rising demand for computing power [1] - The ongoing construction of global data centers has led to a stable and continuous increase in demand for high-speed optical device products [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant growth in Q3 2025, driven by the increasing demand for AI and data center construction, with a net profit of 566 million yuan, up 75.68% year-on-year, and revenue of 1.463 billion yuan, up 74.37% year-on-year [1][3]. Financial Performance - Q3 revenue reached 1.463 billion yuan, a 74.37% increase compared to the same period last year [2]. - Net profit for Q3 was 566 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 75.68% [2]. - For the first three quarters, total revenue was 3.918 billion yuan, up 63.63% year-on-year, while net profit was 1.465 billion yuan, an increase of 50.07% [3]. Cost and Asset Management - The company's operating costs increased by 88.48% year-on-year, outpacing revenue growth, attributed to sales growth and product mix changes [3]. - Asset impairment losses rose significantly to 33.1 million yuan, a 238.76% increase from the previous year, primarily due to increased inventory write-downs [3]. Capital Expenditure and Future Outlook - Fixed assets grew to 1.114 billion yuan, a 38.52% increase, due to new facilities in Jiangxi and Thailand becoming operational [4]. - "Other non-current assets" surged to 1.057 billion yuan, a 694.29% increase, indicating substantial prepayments for equipment, reflecting preparations for future capacity expansion [4]. - The net cash flow from operating activities for the first three quarters was 1.344 billion yuan, up 50.43% year-on-year [4]. - The company completed a cash dividend distribution of approximately 389 million yuan, highlighting its commitment to shareholder returns [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The demand for high-speed optical devices is robust, leading to continuous growth in the company's performance. In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 2.456 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 57.84%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 899 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.46% [3][5] - The company is expected to benefit from the ramp-up of 800G and 1.6T high-speed optical device products in the second half of 2025, which will further drive performance growth [5] - The company is increasing R&D investment to build technological barriers and is pursuing a global layout to cultivate new growth spaces. In the first half of 2025, R&D investment reached 126 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.97% [5] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 2.456 billion yuan, up 57.84% year-on-year, and a net profit of 899 million yuan, up 37.46% year-on-year [3][5] - The company forecasts operating revenues of 4.885 billion yuan, 6.525 billion yuan, and 8.222 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 2.065 billion yuan, 2.807 billion yuan, and 3.616 billion yuan for the same years [6][5] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 67.8, 49.9, and 38.7 respectively, indicating potential for growth compared to the average valuation of comparable companies at 46 times P/E [5][7] Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on market-driven demands and technological innovation, particularly in upgrading and iterating 1.6T high-speed products while enhancing core process innovation to reduce costs and increase efficiency [5] - The company has established dual headquarters and dual production bases, along with multiple R&D centers globally, including locations in Suzhou, Singapore, Japan, and Thailand, to provide diversified options and localized technical support [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [4][5]. Core Viewpoints - The company is experiencing stable revenue and profit growth driven by increasing demand for high-speed optical devices, particularly in the context of global data center construction fueled by AI trends [2][4]. - The company has reported significant revenue growth, with a 57.84% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, reaching 2.456 billion yuan, and a 37.46% increase in net profit, amounting to 899 million yuan [2][4]. - The company is focused on continuous R&D investment to enhance product upgrades and innovations, with R&D expenses reaching 126 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11.97% [3][4]. Financial Summary - The company's projected financial performance shows a steady increase in revenue and net profit from 2025 to 2027, with net profit expected to reach 3.855 billion yuan by 2027 and EPS projected at 4.96 yuan [4][9]. - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 5.581 billion yuan in 2025 to 9.668 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 24.3% [4][9]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to remain strong, with estimates of 38.6% in 2025 and gradually decreasing to 32.0% by 2027 [4][9].

Group 1: Market Performance - The communication equipment sector has seen significant gains, with Tianfu Communication reaching a 20% limit up [1] - Communication ETFs and communication equipment ETFs have increased by over 9%, while the Communication ETF from Southern has risen by over 8% [1] - Year-to-date, communication ETFs and communication equipment ETFs have surged over 80% [2] Group 2: ETF Performance Details - The Communication ETF (515880.SH) rose by 9.33% today and has an annual increase of 87.32% [4] - The Communication Equipment ETF (159583.SZ) increased by 9.19% today with an annual growth of 82.36% [4] - Other ETFs such as 5GETF and 5G Communication ETF also showed significant daily and yearly gains, with increases ranging from 6.87% to 7.75% [4] Group 3: Industry Insights - The Communication ETF tracks the Guozheng Communication Index, with key stocks including Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, and China Telecom [6] - The Communication Equipment ETF follows the communication equipment theme index, reflecting the performance of 50 listed companies in communication equipment manufacturing and services [6] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued guidelines to optimize business access and promote the satellite communication industry, aiming for over 10 million satellite communication users by 2030 [6] Group 4: Company Performance - Tianfu Communication reported a net profit of 899 million yuan for the first half of 2025, significantly up year-on-year, driven by AI development and global data center construction [7] - The demand for optical devices is being driven by the virtual economy, cloud computing, and AI, leading to a stable demand in the telecom market [7] - The company is maintaining R&D investments in high-speed optical modules and new products, with several projects underway targeting future market needs [8]

Core Viewpoint - Tianfu Communication (300394) reported significant growth in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by the increasing demand for high-speed optical devices due to advancements in artificial intelligence and data center construction [1][2]. Financial Performance - Total revenue reached 2.456 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 57.84% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 899 million yuan, up 37.46% year-on-year [1] - In Q2 2025, total revenue was 1.511 billion yuan, reflecting an 83.34% increase compared to the same quarter last year [1] - Q2 net profit attributable to shareholders was 562 million yuan, a 49.64% increase year-on-year [1] - Gross margin decreased to 50.79%, down 12.09% year-on-year [1] - Net margin also decreased to 36.62%, down 13.07% year-on-year [1] Accounts Receivable and Cash Flow - Accounts receivable amounted to 1.173 billion yuan, representing a 79.24% increase year-on-year [1] - The ratio of accounts receivable to net profit reached 87.33%, indicating a significant amount of receivables relative to profit [5] - Operating cash flow per share was 0.78 yuan, down 9.76% year-on-year [1] Cost and Expenses - Operating costs increased by 83.94%, attributed to sales growth and changes in product mix [2] - Total sales, management, and financial expenses amounted to 56.6 million yuan, accounting for 2.3% of revenue, a 51.3% increase year-on-year [1] Investment and Market Position - The company has a strong return on invested capital (ROIC) of 34.5%, indicating high capital efficiency [3] - The historical median ROIC since the company's listing is 20.86%, demonstrating solid investment returns [3] - The company has attracted interest from several prominent fund managers, with recent increases in holdings [5][6] Fund Manager Interest - Notable funds holding Tianfu Communication include Wanji Quality Life Mixed A and others, with significant increases in their positions [6] - The largest fund, Wanji Quality Life Mixed A, has a current scale of 3.042 billion yuan and has seen a 68.8% increase over the past year [6]