【招商食品】啤酒板块观点更新及跟踪20260202： 当前行业股息率较高且龙头分红仍处于提升趋势中，为股价提供支撑，关注26年在服务消费回暖的拉动、及通胀 预期下行业量、价的修复性增长。 推荐龙头地位凸显、高端化持续推进的# 华润啤酒。 经营触底回升、股息率（4.8%）支撑的# 重啤。 大单品放量驱动增长、盈利能力有望持续提升的#燕京。 估值回落低位 【招商食品】啤酒板块观点更新及跟踪20260202： 推荐龙头地位凸显、高端化持续推进的# 华润啤酒。 经营触底回升、股息率（4.8%）支撑的# 重啤。 大单品放量驱动增长、盈利能力有望持续提升的#燕京。 估值回落低位，股息率（A：4.0%H:5.5%）支撑的 预计2025年收入/利润391亿/58亿（未考虑减值）。 重啤：#Q4趋势优于同期，核心因25年严控库存节奏，24年同期去库存折扣下吨酒价下滑，预计全年销量持平微 增、乌苏疆内外均增长（超预期）、嘉士伯、风花雪月双位数增长。 华润：# 25年啤酒量增小个位数、价格平稳、H2略弱于H1，全年利润高单到两位数增长；白酒业务下滑30-40%， 不宜将减值作为影响股价的关键因素。 当前行业股息率较高且龙头分红仍处 ...

Core Viewpoint - The production launch of the capacity expansion and upgrade project of Zhongshan Zhujiang Beer is a significant step towards enhancing production capacity, technological advancement, and green low-carbon levels, contributing to the high-quality development of the beer industry in Guangdong [1][2][8]. Group 1: Project Overview - The project involves a total investment of 932 million yuan, adding 300,000 tons of brewing capacity and a new can production line with a capacity of 72,000 cans per hour [1]. - The project aims to integrate smart manufacturing and green technology, enhancing the overall production efficiency and sustainability of Zhujiang Beer [2][3]. Group 2: Technological Innovations - The project incorporates approximately 40 advanced technologies and equipment, including intelligent integrated systems and automated storage solutions, to improve production processes from brewing to logistics [2][4]. - A digital management platform will facilitate one-stop digital management, including order issuance, data collection, and intelligent analysis [3][4]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The project is expected to generate an additional annual output value of over 800 million yuan, reinforcing the foundation of the real economy in Zhongshan [5]. - Zhujiang Beer has maintained a high-quality growth trajectory, achieving beer sales of 1.2035 million tons and revenue of 5.073 billion yuan in the first three quarters, with net profit increasing by 17.05% year-on-year [6]. Group 4: Consumer Engagement and Market Strategy - The project enhances consumer experience by providing fresher products and expanding the "beer+" model, which integrates various sectors such as sports, music, and food [7]. - Zhujiang Beer has established over 500 experience stores nationwide, creating a consumer service network that promotes active consumption [7]. Group 5: Strategic Alignment - The project aligns with the "14th Five-Year Plan" for optimizing the industrial structure and enhancing the manufacturing capabilities of Zhujiang Beer, contributing to the broader goals of Guangdong's economic development [6][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Qingdao Beer, with a target price of 90 CNY and 70 HKD [1][6]. Core Insights - The company shows resilience in operations with a gradual improvement in performance. The third quarter saw a slight revenue decline of 0.2%, but overall demand is improving, particularly in high-end product sales [6][7]. - The management team is actively innovating products and expanding market channels, which is expected to drive growth in the coming year [6][7]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profitability**: For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 29.37 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.27 billion CNY, up 5.7% year-on-year [6][7]. - **Quarterly Breakdown**: In Q3 2025, total revenue was 8.88 billion CNY, with a net profit of 1.37 billion CNY, reflecting a 1.6% increase year-on-year [6][7]. - **Sales Performance**: The company sold 2.162 million kiloliters of beer in Q3, maintaining positive growth, with a slight decrease in price per ton to 4,105.2 CNY per kiloliter [6][7]. - **Cost Management**: The cost per ton decreased by 3.0% to 2,317.0 CNY, leading to a gross margin increase of 1.4 percentage points to 43.6% [6][7]. Future Outlook - The management anticipates improved performance in Q4 as the dining scene recovers, with a focus on product innovation and channel expansion [6][7]. - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 is set at 4.73 billion CNY, 5.21 billion CNY, and 5.55 billion CNY respectively, indicating a positive growth trajectory [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The 23rd China International Wine Expo was successfully held from October 17 to 19, showcasing a variety of Qingdao Beer products and new offerings, emphasizing a health-conscious approach to beer consumption [1] Product Highlights - Qingdao Beer introduced key products aligned with modern consumer trends, particularly highlighting "Qingdao Beer Light Dry," which focuses on low calories, low sugar, and high quality to cater to health-conscious consumers [2] - The "Qingdao Beer Light Dry" contains only 29 calories per 100ml and has a sugar content as low as 0.1g, promoting a lighter drinking experience [4] - The 0.0% alcohol white beer from Qingdao Beer won a gold medal at the 2025 Beer World Cup, utilizing advanced vacuum distillation technology to maintain the original flavor while reducing alcohol content to less than 0.05% [6] Awards and Recognition - Qingdao Beer showcased a full array of products at the expo, including award-winning items such as classic 1903, pure draft, white beer, and various high-end specialty beers, all of which have received gold medals in domestic and international competitions [10] Consumer Engagement - The expo featured interactive activities that combined "wine experience" with "fun interaction," enhancing audience participation and adding joy to consumers' quality of life [12]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese beer market is experiencing a significant shift, with domestic giants gaining ground against foreign competitors, particularly in the context of the "takeout war" that has revitalized the industry [4][6][30]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape of the Chinese beer market is changing, with domestic brands outperforming foreign giants in the first half of 2025 [4][6]. - In the first half of 2025, China’s beer market saw a decline in overall production by 0.3%, continuing a trend of stagnation [18]. - Despite the overall market decline, domestic giants like China Resources Beer, Qingdao Beer, and Yanjing Beer achieved over 2% growth in sales [19][20]. Group 2: Performance of Major Players - China Resources Beer surpassed Budweiser APAC to become the market leader, with a revenue of approximately 239.42 billion RMB, a 0.8% increase year-on-year [10][11]. - Budweiser APAC reported a revenue of 31.36 billion USD (approximately 224.5 billion RMB), a 5.6% decline year-on-year, marking the worst performance among the top five [9]. - Yanjing Beer and Chongqing Beer are in a tight race for the fourth position, with Yanjing Beer achieving a net profit growth of 45.45%, surpassing Chongqing Beer [13][14]. Group 3: Impact of Instant Retail - The "takeout war" has provided a new growth driver for the beer industry, with instant retail becoming a significant channel for sales [17][21]. - Qingdao Beer reported a nearly 60% increase in sales through instant retail platforms, significantly outperforming the industry average [26]. - China Resources Beer noted a nearly 40% growth in its online business and a 50% increase in its instant retail business [27]. Group 4: Foreign Brands' Struggles - Foreign brands, particularly Budweiser APAC and Chongqing Beer, are facing challenges, with Budweiser's sales in China declining by 8.2% [10][30]. - The high-end beer market, once dominated by Budweiser, is seeing its advantages eroded by the growth of domestic brands [30][33]. - Both Budweiser APAC and Chongqing Beer are shifting focus to non-immediate channels in response to declining performance in traditional immediate consumption venues [36][37].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of price wars in the food delivery industry on beer distributors and manufacturers, highlighting a recent decision by China Resources Beer to stop supplying certain products to various online platforms to maintain market value and brand competitiveness [4][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The price war in the food delivery sector has led to significant disruptions, with some beer products being sold below cost, affecting the overall market pricing structure [6][7]. - China Resources Beer announced a complete halt on the sale of its "Yuan Chuang" and "Pure Draft" series on platforms like Meituan and Ele.me, aiming to stabilize prices and protect brand integrity [6][9]. - A beer distributor noted that prices on delivery platforms sometimes fall below the wholesale price, creating unsustainable conditions for smaller distributors [7][8]. Group 2: Distributor Challenges - The profit margins for beer distributors have decreased, with some reporting margins dropping below the typical 20% due to aggressive pricing strategies by larger manufacturers and platforms [7]. - Smaller distributors face challenges as they cannot compete with the heavily subsidized prices offered by major platforms, leading to a potential exit from the market [8][9]. - The article mentions that the traditional pricing rules in the beer market are being disrupted, with platforms having significant pricing power due to their large purchase volumes [7][8]. Group 3: Industry Response - The decision by China Resources Beer to withdraw from certain platforms has received support from distributors, who believe it could lead to a healthier market environment [9]. - Other brands, like "Wei Jia Liang Pi," have also opted to limit their presence on delivery platforms due to high commission rates, indicating a broader trend among food and beverage companies to reassess their sales strategies [8][9]. - The article suggests that while the current situation poses risks to distributors and suppliers, it may also lead to the development of new sales channels and strategies in the long run [9].

Core Viewpoint - Qingdao Beer 1903 MIX Tavern has opened in Jinan, offering a unique self-service beer experience and a vibrant atmosphere that attracts young consumers [1][2] Group 1: Diverse Experience - The tavern features a wide range of fresh beers, including raw, pure draft, white, black, IPA, and Pilsner, all delivered through cold chain logistics [2] - The venue transforms throughout the day, serving as a light food space during the day and a lively gathering spot with live music at night, catering to the evolving preferences of young consumers [2][4] Group 2: Cultural and Historical Integration - The establishment revitalizes the historical Jinan Old Commercial District, which has been a commercial hub since 1904, by merging old architecture with new consumption models [3] - The design of the tavern is inspired by the Jiaoji Railway, creating an immersive experience that reflects the collision of history and modern trends [3] Group 3: New Consumption Trends - Young consumers are increasingly motivated by experiences rather than traditional tourist attractions, with local bars and cultural spaces becoming popular destinations [4] - The tavern has an average daily foot traffic of over 500 people, with 65% of consumption occurring at night, contributing to the development of a vibrant night economy in Jinan [4] Group 4: Lifestyle and Social Engagement - Qingdao Beer 1903 MIX Tavern aims to create a comprehensive lifestyle and social platform, promoting a new way of living and enhancing the quality of life through immersive beer culture experiences [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with expectations for continued profitability in the second half as the impact of alcohol bans diminishes and cost advantages persist [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - For 25H1, the company achieved revenue of 20.49 billion yuan, net profit of 3.90 billion yuan, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 3.63 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of +2.1%, +7.2%, and +6.0% respectively [1]. - In Q2 2025, revenue was 10.05 billion yuan, net profit was 2.19 billion yuan, and net profit excluding non-recurring items was 2.03 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of +1.3%, +7.3%, and +6.0% respectively [1]. - The gross margin for 25H1 was 43.7%, up by 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, while Q2 gross margin increased by 3.0 percentage points to 45.8% [3]. Group 2: Sales and Market Dynamics - The company sold 4.732 million tons of beer in 25H1, a year-on-year increase of +2.3%, with Q2 sales showing a +1.0% increase [2]. - The sales volume of mid-to-high-end products increased by +5.1% in 25H1, while low-end products saw a +1.0% increase [2]. - The impact of alcohol bans and weak consumer demand has pressured industry sales, with Q2 industry production down by -0.3% year-on-year [2]. Group 3: Cost Management and Profitability - The company benefited from a decline in raw material costs, with Q2 costs per ton down by -5.1% year-on-year, leading to improved profitability [3]. - The selling expense ratio and management expense ratio for 25H1 were 10.7% and 3.3%, showing stable expense management amid competitive pressures [3]. Group 4: Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company has adjusted its earnings forecast for 2025-2027, now expecting EPS of 3.51, 3.80, and 4.10 yuan, reflecting a downward revision of 1% to 2% [4]. - The target price for A-shares is set at 84.24 yuan, based on a 24x PE ratio for 2025, while the target price for H-shares is 65.46 HKD, based on a 17x PE ratio [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Qingdao Beer, with a target price of 90 CNY and 70 HKD [1][5]. Core Views - Qingdao Beer has shown stable growth against the market trend, with a revenue increase of 2.1% year-on-year to 20.49 billion CNY in H1 2025 and a net profit increase of 7.2% to 3.90 billion CNY [1][5]. - The company is focusing on product structure upgrades, with a notable increase in sales of mid-to-high-end products, contributing to a positive revenue outlook [5][6]. - Cost advantages are being realized, leading to an increase in gross margin to 45.8%, up 3.0 percentage points year-on-year [5][6]. - The new management team is expected to drive the company's high-end product strategy, with a focus on expanding sales channels and introducing innovative products [5][6]. Financial Summary - For 2025, the projected total revenue is 33.16 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 3.2% [1][6]. - The net profit for 2025 is estimated at 4.73 billion CNY, reflecting an 8.9% increase compared to the previous year [1][6]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 3.47 CNY for 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20 [1][6]. - The company’s asset-liability ratio stands at 41.24%, indicating a stable financial position [2][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for China Resources Beer (00291.HK) [2][8] Core Views - The company reported strong performance in its high-end segment, with earnings exceeding expectations and significant growth in profitability [2][8] - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 23.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.79 billion yuan, up 23.0% [2][4] - The interim dividend was set at 0.464 yuan per share, reflecting a 24.4% increase, with a payout ratio of 26% [2] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and profit growth: The company’s revenue for 2025H1 was 23.94 billion yuan, with EBIT at 7.69 billion yuan, marking a 20.8% increase, and net profit at 5.79 billion yuan, up 23.0% [2][4] - Beer sales volume reached 6.487 million kiloliters, a 2.2% increase, with an average price of 3,570.4 yuan per kiloliter, up 0.44% [8][10] - The beer business's EBIT margin improved, with a gross margin of 48.3%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [8][10] Business Segment Analysis - High-end product performance: Sales of premium and above products grew over 10%, while mid-to-low-end products saw slight increases due to a high base [8][10] - Cost management: The beer business achieved a cost reduction of 4.2% year-on-year, contributing to improved profitability [8][10] - White wine segment under pressure: Revenue from the white wine business fell by 34.0% to 0.781 billion yuan, primarily due to policy disruptions affecting consumption [8][10] Future Outlook - The company is focused on high-end product development and operational efficiency improvements through digitalization and cost management strategies [8][10] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 5.87 billion yuan, 6.40 billion yuan, and 6.79 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a positive outlook for profitability [8][10] - The target price is set at 40.00 HKD, with a corresponding PE ratio of approximately 20X for 2025E [4][8]