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Group 1 - TSMC's Q3 financial report indicates that its U.S. subsidiary earned only approximately NT$40 million in a single quarter, a significant drop from NT$4.232 billion in the previous quarter, highlighting the substantial costs associated with establishing operations in the U.S. [2] - The high operational expenses in the U.S. are attributed to the underdeveloped supply chain, technical talent training, and equipment maintenance compared to Taiwan and Japan, compounded by rising costs for expatriate engineering teams and facility setup [2] - TSMC's second wafer fab in Arizona is expected to complete equipment installation by Q2 2026, leading to increased depreciation burdens, making short-term financial improvements unlikely [2] Group 2 - The key to TSMC's U.S. operations lies not in immediate profit figures but in the successful implementation of advanced processes like 3nm and 2nm, which are crucial for increasing capacity utilization [2] - The demand for advanced packaging is rising, revealing a growing inadequacy in the local supply chain in the U.S., with several Taiwanese material and equipment manufacturers responding to TSMC's expansion by investing in U.S. projects [3] - The overall market is seeing sustained demand for advanced processes driven by AI, with 3nm and 2nm technologies remaining in long-term short supply, while mature processes face pricing pressures due to oversupply and competition from Chinese foundries [3]

Core Viewpoint - TSMC reported a significant increase in revenue for October 2025, with a month-over-month growth of 11% and a year-over-year growth of 16.9% [1] Financial Performance - TSMC's consolidated revenue for October 2025 was approximately 367.47 billion New Taiwan Dollars (NTD), equivalent to about 84.45 billion RMB [1] - For the third quarter of 2025, TSMC's consolidated revenue reached approximately 989.92 billion NTD (about 227.48 billion RMB), reflecting a year-over-year increase of 30.3% [2] - The net profit for the third quarter was around 452.3 billion NTD (approximately 103.94 billion RMB), marking a year-over-year increase of 39.1% [2] - Earnings per share for the third quarter were 17.44 NTD, which is a 39.0% increase compared to the previous year [2] Advanced Technology and Production - In the third quarter, the shipment volume of 3nm process technology accounted for 23% of total wafer revenue, while 5nm and 7nm processes accounted for 37% and 14%, respectively [3] - Advanced process technologies, defined as 7nm and above, constituted 74% of total wafer revenue [3] Capital Expenditure - TSMC's capital expenditure for the first nine months of 2025 totaled 29.39 billion USD (approximately 209.49 billion RMB), indicating sustained high levels of investment to expand capacity in response to strong demand [3]

Core Insights - TSMC's 3nm process has officially entered a golden mass production phase, with third-quarter revenue contribution rising to 23%, surpassing the 5nm process and becoming a key driver for overall operations [2] - The demand for AI and cloud applications is driving TSMC's 3nm production lines to operate at full capacity, with utilization rates at the Tainan Fab18 facility nearing maximum [2] - NVIDIA is a major contributor, increasing its monthly wafer orders to 35,000, which is straining the advanced process capacity [2] Group 1 - TSMC's monthly 3nm production capacity has rapidly increased from 100,000 wafers at the end of last year to 100,000-110,000 wafers, with projections to reach 160,000 wafers by 2025, representing a nearly 50% increase [2] - Major cloud service providers (CSPs) are competing for 3nm capacity, with AWS and Google planning to utilize TSMC's 3nm process for their AI chips [2] - The semiconductor industry anticipates challenges in 3nm wafer supply next year, as CSPs like Google seek to secure more wafer allocations [3] Group 2 - TSMC's 3nm process is expected to account for over 30% of its revenue next year, driven primarily by AI and high-performance computing (HPC) [3] - TSMC plans to increase prices for advanced process technology by 3-5% over the next four years, reflecting strong demand for AI chips and indicating a seller's market for the most advanced wafer foundry services [3] - The introduction of improved versions of the 3nm process, such as N3E and N3P, aims to optimize performance, power consumption, and yield [3]

Core Viewpoint - TSMC is set to increase prices for advanced processes starting in September 2023, with expected price hikes of 3% to 10% for 2026, reflecting rising production costs while maintaining stable customer relationships [1][2] Group 1: Pricing Strategy - TSMC has begun discussions with clients regarding price increases for advanced processes, which will vary based on individual customer procurement levels and cooperation [1] - The anticipated price increase for TSMC's 3nm process is expected to be at least a single-digit percentage for 2026, continuing a trend of price adjustments for the fourth consecutive year [1][2] - TSMC's pricing strategy is guided by long-term partnerships rather than opportunistic pricing, emphasizing value delivery to clients [1] Group 2: Revenue and Growth Drivers - Advanced processes, particularly the 5nm and 3nm families, accounted for 60% of TSMC's revenue in Q2 and Q3 of this year, with 3nm contributing 23% and 5nm 37% [2] - The company is expected to benefit from growing demand in AI applications, with forecasts suggesting that AI-related revenue could reach 35% of TSMC's total income by 2028, potentially being achieved earlier [2] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a price increase trend driven by AI applications, with wafer fabs planning to raise foundry prices by 2026 [2]

Core Insights - TSMC is capitalizing on AI opportunities as smartphone market inventory stabilizes, with strong demand for its 3nm process chips driven by both Apple and non-Apple brands [2][3] - Apple has reported better-than-expected sales for the iPhone 17 series, leading to increased orders for TSMC's latest 3nm chips [2] - TSMC's advanced manufacturing processes are expected to dominate the smartphone SoC market, with a projected market share of 87% for 5nm and below by 2025, increasing to 89% by 2028 [3] Group 1 - TSMC's chairman expressed confidence in the smartphone inventory levels, stating they have returned to a healthy seasonal state, alleviating concerns about prebuilt inventory [2] - The iPhone 17 series features the new A19 and A19 Pro chips, both utilizing TSMC's latest 3nm process, contributing to strong order momentum [2][3] - MediaTek's latest flagship chip, the Dimensity 9500, and Qualcomm's Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 5 are also leveraging TSMC's 3nm process, further boosting TSMC's output [3] Group 2 - TSMC anticipates strong AI-related demand through 2025, while non-AI terminal markets are showing signs of recovery [4] - The recovery in high-end smartphone sales is expected to drive further demand for TSMC's 3nm chips, with a potential increase in utilization rates for previously weaker 6/7nm capacities [4] - The automotive semiconductor demand remains weak, pending inventory adjustments from suppliers [4]

Core Viewpoint - TSMC reported record high revenue and net profit for Q3 2025, indicating strong growth in advanced semiconductor processes [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for Q3 2025 reached NT$989.92 billion, a year-on-year increase of 30.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6% [1] - Net profit for the same period was NT$452.3 billion, marking a record high, with a year-on-year increase of 39.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13.6% [1] - Gross margin for Q3 2025 was 59.5%, operating margin was 50.6%, and net profit margin after tax was 45.7% [1] Product Mix - 3nm process shipments accounted for 23% of TSMC's wafer sales revenue in Q3 2025 [1] - 5nm process shipments represented 37% of total wafer sales revenue for the quarter [1] - 7nm process shipments made up 14% of the total wafer sales revenue [1] - Overall, revenue from advanced processes (including 7nm and more advanced) constituted 74% of total wafer sales revenue for the quarter [1]

Core Viewpoint - TSMC's advancement in wafer fabrication technology is leading to increased costs, impacting clients like Apple, Qualcomm, and MediaTek, although the premium for the new 2nm process may be less severe than initially expected, ranging from 10% to 20% compared to the 3nm process [1][2]. Pricing Dynamics - The anticipated price for TSMC's 2nm wafers is projected to be around $30,000 each, with the potential for a 50% price increase next year [5]. - TSMC's current 3nm process is expected to see price hikes, with the second-generation N3E reaching approximately $25,000 and the third-generation N3P around $27,000 [2][5]. Client Adaptation - Major clients like Qualcomm and MediaTek are adapting to the price increases, with Qualcomm planning to transition to the 2nm process for its Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 6 SoC by 2026, and MediaTek already having successfully taped out its first 2nm SoC [3][5]. - Despite the cost pressures, clients are still willing to invest in TSMC's latest technology, indicating a strong demand for advanced semiconductor processes [3]. Market Demand and Competition - TSMC is reportedly experiencing high demand for its 2nm process, with 15 major companies preparing to adopt it, including AMD and MediaTek, and expectations that Apple will also become a client [5][6]. - The semiconductor industry is facing inflationary pressures, with rising prices for memory and storage components contributing to overall cost increases [5]. Production Capacity - TSMC is expanding its production capabilities by constructing multiple 2nm fabs in Taiwan and a third fab in Arizona, aiming to meet the growing market demand [6].

Market Analysis - The A-share market is experiencing a steady upward trend, with the ChiNext and Sci-Tech 50 indices reaching new highs [3][6] - The market is characterized by a "technology-driven + structural differentiation" feature, with technology growth stocks leading the market [6][10] - The "9.24" new policy anniversary effect continues to release, with the ChiNext index showing a cumulative increase of nearly 100% and the Sci-Tech 50 index up nearly 120% over the past year [6][10] Bond Market - The bond market is undergoing adjustments, with a tightening of the funding environment as the quarter-end approaches [7][10] - The central bank's net withdrawal of funds and rising short-term interest rates indicate short-term pressure on the bond market [10][12] Commodity Market - The commodity futures market shows a "more up than down" trend, with energy and black building materials leading the gains [10][12] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's new growth stabilization plan for the building materials industry is expected to boost market expectations for related products [10][12] Recent Hot Products - Precious metals are favored due to central bank purchases and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts [12] - The artificial intelligence sector is seeing accelerated capital expenditure from global tech giants, indicating strong growth potential [12] - Domestic chip production is expected to benefit from technological breakthroughs and increased self-reliance [12] - The consumer sector is anticipated to perform well due to RMB appreciation and market style shifts [12] - Coal prices are supported by ongoing policy efforts to curb overcapacity [12] Core Strategy Summary - The market may enter a phase of fluctuation due to macro events and high index levels, with a potential shift from "technology-led" to "balanced allocation" [14] - Long-term prospects for the A-share market remain positive due to global liquidity from the Fed's rate cut cycle and domestic economic recovery [14] - The bond market may face short-term pressure but has long-term investment value due to potential easing of monetary policy [14] - Precious and non-ferrous metals are expected to benefit from global liquidity, while industrial products will be influenced by supply-side dynamics and policy developments [14]

Core Viewpoint - TSMC's 2nm orders are booming, with 15 clients confirmed, primarily from the HPC sector, indicating strong demand driven by AI applications [2][3] Group 1: Demand and Market Position - TSMC's 2nm technology is expected to surpass the previous generation in demand, providing a stable business foundation and sustainable growth over the next five years [3][4] - The initial 2nm production line will span four major wafer fabs in Taiwan, with a target monthly capacity of 100,000 wafers by 2026 [3][4] - Major tech companies expected to be clients include Apple, AMD, Qualcomm, MediaTek, Broadcom, and Intel, with Apple anticipated to secure nearly half of the initial 2nm capacity [4][10] Group 2: Technical Advancements - The 2nm process features a revolutionary Gate-All-Around (GAA) transistor structure and optimized NanoFlex DTCO, enhancing chip performance and efficiency [4][5] - Compared to the 3nm process, the 2nm technology shows significant advantages in power consumption, with reductions of 24% to 35% under the same voltage conditions, and potential performance improvements of up to 15% [7][8] Group 3: Pricing and Cost Implications - TSMC's 2nm wafer prices are expected to rise by 50%, which may lead to increased costs for clients like Qualcomm and MediaTek, who are already facing higher fees for the 3nm process [8][10] - The price increase for 3nm wafers has already forced Qualcomm and MediaTek to raise prices for their flagship products, impacting the overall market dynamics [9][10]