Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in the price of Moutai reflects a significant shift in market sentiment, driven by increased supply and changing consumer behavior, leading to a broader impact on the high-end liquor market [1][3][5] Group 1: Price Trends - On January 21, the wholesale reference price for Moutai was updated, showing a drop of 25 yuan for original boxes to 1665 yuan per bottle and a 5 yuan drop for loose bottles to 1650 yuan, continuing a recent trend of price declines [1] - Moutai's price drop is attributed to increased supply as the company released additional stock in November, easing previous supply constraints and allowing buyers more negotiating power [3] - The decline in original box Moutai prices is more pronounced than that of loose bottles, indicating a diminishing perception of its investment value [3][5] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The slowdown in sales velocity and reduced corporate purchasing orders have contributed to the supply-demand imbalance, with personal consumers becoming more cautious in their purchases [3] - Some distributors, facing inventory pressure from previous high prices, are now lowering prices to recover funds, creating a ripple effect of price reductions across the market [3][5] - The actions of influential traders clearing their Moutai holdings have amplified the price decline, leading to a loss of confidence among retail investors [5] Group 3: Consumer Impact - The price drop has benefited ordinary consumers, with reports of increased availability and lower prices for Moutai on e-commerce platforms, allowing consumers to purchase at reduced rates [5] - The shift in consumer behavior is correcting the previous market anomaly where buying was not aligned with actual consumption [5] Group 4: Collectible Market Changes - There are signs of differentiation in the collectible market, with older and commemorative Moutai maintaining stable prices while interest in new vintage Moutai has waned [7] - The official pricing from Moutai remains unchanged at 1499 yuan, creating a significant gap with the wholesale market, which may need to be corrected by market forces [7] Group 5: Broader Economic Implications - The fluctuations in Moutai prices are seen as a barometer for high-end consumer spending, raising questions about overall consumer capacity [9] - The evolving price landscape is prompting a reevaluation of Moutai's role in the market, as it transitions from a "hard currency" to a more nuanced asset [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Moutai liquor market experienced significant volatility in 2025, highlighted by the rapid sellout of the "Five-Star 70th Anniversary Edition" and subsequent price drop, raising concerns about market sentiment and investor confidence [1][5][11] Price Fluctuations - The "Five-Star 70th Anniversary Edition" sold out 25,568 bottles in two minutes but saw its price plummet from 13,500 yuan to 11,000 yuan, a decline of 18.87%, despite being over 50% higher than its initial price of 7,000 yuan [1] - Other Moutai products also faced price declines, with the kilogram Moutai dropping 15 yuan to 3,305 yuan, and the "Snake Moutai" falling 48% from an initial price of 3,800 yuan to 1,975 yuan [1][2] Financial Performance - Guizhou Moutai's H1 2025 financial report showed revenue of 89.389 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.1%, and a net profit of 45.403 billion yuan, up 8.89% [4] - The revenue from Moutai liquor accounted for 84.6% of total revenue, indicating stability in the core business, while the series liquor revenue was relatively small at 13.76 billion yuan [4] Growth Concerns - There is a noticeable slowdown in revenue growth, with Q1 2025 showing a 10.54% increase, while Q2 only grew by 2.95%, leading to a significant quarter-on-quarter decline [6] - The deceleration in revenue and profit growth is a primary source of market anxiety, suggesting potential cracks in the Moutai brand's perceived invincibility [6] Market Sentiment - The price volatility reflects deeper psychological factors, with market participants exhibiting extreme sensitivity to price changes, leading to rapid sell-offs during downturns [1][8] - The high-end liquor market's liquidity issues and the influence of a few players can lead to drastic price swings, raising concerns about the sustainability of current price levels [8] Diverging Opinions - There are contrasting views in the market, with some seeing the current situation as a buying opportunity, while others fear that the price rebound may be temporary [9] - The ongoing debate about Moutai's financial attributes and market dynamics indicates a lack of consensus on future price movements and market stability [11]

Group 1 - The price of Moutai has significantly dropped, with the wholesale price of Feitian Moutai falling to 2050 yuan per box and individual bottles dropping below 2000 yuan, leading to substantial losses for speculators [3][4] - Many speculators are facing severe financial distress, with some losing luxury cars or entire apartments due to the plummeting prices, indicating a shift from profit-making to significant losses in the Moutai trading market [3][4] - The market sentiment among dealers has turned pessimistic, with prices fluctuating throughout the day, causing them to be cautious about stockpiling inventory [4][6] Group 2 - In Moutai Town, the production of liquor continues unaffected by the market turmoil, with local distilleries maintaining a steady operation and focusing on quality, suggesting a long-term perspective on the industry [6][8] - The local economy remains robust, with many workers in the liquor industry earning competitive salaries, indicating a strong foundation for the Moutai industry despite external market pressures [8][10] - The shift in market dynamics has led to the emergence of professional teams with substantial capital and logistics capabilities, replacing individual speculators, which reflects a more organized approach to navigating the market [12][13]