2026 年，AI 数据中心（AIDC）行业将继续保持高景气度，值得投资者重点关 注。回顾 2025 年，AIDC 板块经历了两大波行情：第一波发生在 2 月至 3 月 中旬，由海外头部 CSP 厂商和国内互联网巨头如阿里、字节、腾讯等发布的数 据中心资本支出预期超出市场预期所驱动；第二波发生在 7 月中旬至 9 月，由 于海外 CSP 厂商在中报财报中进一步上调资本开支预期，以及 H20 解禁事件 和国内互联网大厂三季报上调预期共同催化。 年底出现的小行情主要由谷歌推 出 TPU 及 NV 的业绩超预期、阿里上调资本开支预期以及 NV 举办电力设备短 缺峰会等事件驱动。从这些表现来看，股价变动的核心因素包括国内外厂商上 电力设备 2026 年年度策略：AI 大周期开启，海外扩展空 间广阔 20260223 摘要 数据中心资本支出受海外 CSP 厂商和国内互联网巨头驱动，尤其在 2 月 至 3 月中旬及 7 月中旬至 9 月，厂商上调 CAPEX 预期是股价变动的核 心因素，订单及业绩超预期和技术突破亦有影响。 液冷和 SST 板块分别在 7 月中旬至 9 月及 10 月中旬至 10 月底走出独 立行情，液冷 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Data Center Equipment in China - **Key Companies**: Kstar and Megmeet Core Insights 1. **Accelerating Shipment Growth**: Both Kstar and Megmeet expect significant growth in AIDC power equipment shipments starting from 2026, driven by an increase in AIDC capital expenditures [2][3] 2. **Market Share Gains**: There is potential for both companies to gain market share from US hyperscalers due to slow capacity expansion among global power equipment manufacturers and the introduction of new power technologies [2] 3. **Next-Generation Technology**: The ramp-up of 800VDC technology is anticipated to begin by the end of 2026, with commercialization of SST expected around 2028 [2] Company-Specific Insights Kstar 1. **US Orders Growth**: Kstar is experiencing positive progress in US-related UPS orders, which are expected to contribute to earnings in 2026 [3] 2. **Product Demand**: The company anticipates a strong demand for UPS systems, particularly the 600kW models, while also expecting to increase shipments of products over 1MW starting in 2026 [3] 3. **New Customer Acquisition**: Kstar plans to expand its customer base domestically, targeting companies like Bytedance, Kuaishou, and JD [3] 4. **HVDC Prototype**: A HVDC prototype is expected to be delivered in February 2026, with validation and delivery commencing in the second half of 2026 [3] 5. **BESS Shipment Recovery**: Kstar expects a recovery in BESS shipments and margins into 2026, driven by demand in Europe and Southeast Asia [3] Megmeet 1. **Strong Order Backlog**: Megmeet has a solid order book, which supports its optimistic outlook for overseas shipment growth and market share gains starting in 2026 [4] 2. **Supplier Selection Involvement**: US CSPs are increasingly involved in the supplier selection process for AIDC power equipment, which could benefit Megmeet [4] 3. **Cost Management**: Management expects R&D and SG&A expenses as a percentage of revenue to decrease as the AIDC power equipment business scales, leading to a recovery in net margins [4] 4. **800VDC Product Showcase**: Megmeet showcased its 800VDC product at the 2025 OCP, with plans to send a prototype for trial testing in mid-2026 [4] Risks and Considerations 1. **Downside Risks**: Major risks for the data center equipment sector include slower-than-expected growth in AI data center capacity, slower penetration of high-power density products, and challenges in gaining market share in the overseas AIDC equipment supply chain [6]

Group 1: Power and Environmental Industry - The core viewpoint highlights the significant power supply shortage in the U.S. due to increased computing power investments, with OpenAI raising its investment scale to 250GW by 2033 and peak electricity demand expected to exceed 1000GW by 2030, up from approximately 820GW currently [2][5] - The report suggests that the power generation side will rely on gas power, nuclear power, energy storage, and SOFC as emergency measures, with a projected electricity gap of 182GW or 89GW depending on whether existing units are retired by 2030 [6] - It is anticipated that U.S. grid investments will increase significantly, with projections of reaching $30 billion in 2024 and $43.4 billion by 2027, creating export opportunities for domestic companies [7] Group 2: Home Appliance Industry - The report on Tabo (06110.HK) indicates a high single-digit decline in retail sales for Q3 FY25/26, aligning with expectations, and a reduction in store closures is anticipated for FY26 compared to FY25 [11][12] - Nike's revenue in the Greater China region has decreased by 16% year-on-year, prompting the company to collaborate closely with distributors like Tabo to address inventory issues and enhance brand image through targeted strategies [11][12] - The introduction of new brands such as Soar and NORRONA is expected to diversify Tabo's offerings and expand its customer base, potentially driving new revenue growth [12]

Overall Viewpoint - The electric new energy sector is experiencing increased volatility due to fluctuating tariff policies. In Q3 2025, China's energy storage lithium battery shipments are projected to reach 165 GWh, with a total of 430 GWh expected from Q1 to Q3, and an annual forecast of 580 GWh, representing a year-on-year growth rate exceeding 75%. Energy storage and lithium batteries remain the most prosperous sub-sectors within the electric new energy industry [4]. Group 1: Solid-State Batteries - There are significant advancements in solid-state battery technology, including improvements in interface contact through iodine ions, polymer electrolyte frameworks, and fluorinated polyether materials. The market is shifting from equipment speculation to material speculation, indicating that this trend will likely continue [4]. Group 2: Energy Storage - Due to domestic and international policy factors, energy storage demand is being anticipated earlier. The industry is expected to maintain a favorable outlook through 2025-2026. Current stock prices may continue to experience high-level fluctuations, with investment preferences leaning towards companies that resonate with AIDC power sources and photovoltaic "anti-involution" logic [4]. Group 3: Lithium Battery Materials - According to SMM data, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has been rising, reaching an average of 75,500 yuan per ton as of October 17. Some negative electrode companies have increased the prices of graphite negative electrode products by 2,000-3,000 yuan per ton, primarily due to rising petroleum coke prices. Battery manufacturers are still under pressure to lower prices, while leading companies in lithium iron phosphate and separators are maintaining good capacity utilization rates, with orders flowing to small and medium-sized enterprises [4]. Group 4: Power Equipment and Photovoltaics - Currently, the stock prices of power equipment and photovoltaic sectors are relatively low, primarily due to the industry's weaker outlook. Market trends will determine the direction of these two sectors in Q4 2025, influenced by defensive factors and the preliminary results of photovoltaic "anti-involution." There are signs of improvement, but a definitive trend has yet to form, warranting close monitoring [6]. Group 5: Policy Changes - Recent announcements from the Ministry of Finance, General Administration of Customs, and State Taxation Administration regarding adjustments to value-added tax policies for wind power have garnered market attention. The cancellation of the 50% immediate refund policy for land-based wind power is noted, while the benefits for offshore wind power will be retained from November 1, 2025, to December 31, 2027. This policy change is expected to have a slight impact on the internal rate of return (IRR) of wind power projects, but the overall effect may be less significant than the marketization requirements outlined in document "136" [5].