Group 1: Chinese Luxury Car Dealers - UBS analysts noted a recent stock price increase for Zhongsheng Group and Yongda Automotive, with respective rises of approximately 20% and 5% over the past five days, attributed to expectations of improved new car profit margins and market speculation on industry consolidation [2][3] - The Chinese government's crackdown on irrational competition is expected to stabilize retail prices and improve profit margins for dealers, which are sensitive to changes in new car profit margins [3][4] - Traditional luxury car brands are facing declining sales, with a 14% year-on-year drop in the first half of 2025, as domestic brands capture a larger market share, leading to potential further retail price discounts [4][5] Group 2: Chinese Insurance Industry - Following recent anti-involution measures, the Chinese life insurance sector saw a 9.1% increase in H-shares over four trading days, outperforming the Hang Seng Index [7] - Rising interest rates are expected to benefit life insurance companies in the long term, enhancing net asset value and reducing risks associated with interest spreads [8] - UBS anticipates that the upcoming lower pricing interest rate benchmark may make dividend-type policies more attractive, benefiting insurers with strong investment and distribution capabilities [8][9] Group 3: Chinese E-commerce Industry - The second quarter saw a 6.3% year-on-year increase in online retail sales, indicating a shift towards high-quality growth, with improved return rates attributed to policy changes on e-commerce platforms [11][12] - Instant retail investments by Alibaba and JD.com have led to a recovery in daily active users, although the conversion rate of new traffic remains lower compared to traditional channels [13][14] - UBS favors Alibaba in the e-commerce sector due to its potential in artificial intelligence-related businesses and expects significant value realization if execution is successful [18]

Core Viewpoint - The traditional luxury car brands represented by BBA (BMW, Benz, Audi) are facing significant challenges in the Chinese market, with local luxury brands rapidly gaining market share and altering consumer perceptions of luxury vehicles [1][3][20]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The global sales of BBA brands are declining, with BMW and Benz experiencing the largest drops in China, with sales down 13% and 7% respectively, while Audi's sales fell by approximately 11% [1][3]. - The Chinese luxury car market is evolving, with the segment priced between 200,000 to 300,000 yuan experiencing a 92% growth from 1.982 million units in 2018 to 3.822 million units in 2024 [3][18]. - In 2024, domestic high-end brand passenger car sales are projected to reach 4.738 million units, reflecting a 2.3% year-on-year increase [3][18]. Group 2: Audi's Strategic Shift - Audi is launching a new AUDI brand in China, aiming to attract younger consumers and differentiate itself in the luxury market [2][3]. - The AUDI E5 Sportback, which debuted shortly before the Shanghai Auto Show, represents Audi's commitment to electric and intelligent vehicle technology, with a focus on local partnerships for battery and smart driving solutions [2][4][7]. - Audi's collaboration with local suppliers like CATL for battery systems and Momenta for intelligent driving technology highlights a strategic pivot towards leveraging Chinese innovation [2][9][11]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Traditional luxury brands are increasingly adopting Chinese smart automotive solutions, with BBA brands collaborating with local companies to enhance their technological offerings [9][10][21]. - The shift towards smart and electric vehicles is not just limited to BBA; other foreign brands are also forming partnerships with Chinese suppliers to adapt to the rapidly changing market [10][13]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with the Chinese market leading in the adoption of new energy vehicles, achieving over 50% penetration, while other regions lag behind [18][20]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The success of BBA brands in China is seen as critical for their global strategy, with significant investments planned for new electric models and local R&D initiatives [17][20]. - The rapid development of smart and electric vehicles in China is expected to influence global automotive trends, with Chinese solutions beginning to penetrate international markets [21].

撰 文 / 张霖郁 设 计 / 琚 佳 德系三大豪华品牌被国内各方势力反复对标。多年来，他们始终保持沉默。 "是不是豪华品牌不是自己说了算。豪华品牌的标准，第一是它的技术创新能力，永远走在市场前 列；第二，满足用户超越功能本身的愿望，通过购买这个品牌实现他/她超越物理功能的愿望；第 三，给用户表达个性和情感的机会。归根结底，从经济学角度讲，是不是豪华还是看消费者的支付 意愿，他 /她愿不愿意为这个产品支付额外的溢价，决定了这个产品是不是属于豪华品牌。" 2024年11月广州车展，当被问及宝马如何应对中国当下的竞争环境时，华晨宝马总裁兼首席执行官 戴鹤轩（Franz Decker）说。 整个2024年，奔驰、宝马以及奥迪在华销量均下滑，他们的产品力和国内品牌相比，相差了一个代 际。即便不断降价后，他们仍没能保住原有的市场份额。 戴鹤轩讲的"豪华"定义中的第一条"技术创新能力"，这几年宝马、奔驰、奥迪在华稍显微弱。因为 每一款新品从决策到亮相至少要三年时间。 此次2025年上海车展，BBA拿出了他们的新车型，这些车型背后是这三家德系车企"苦练两年以上 内功"交付的新平台、新电子电气架构、新的驱动路线、新座舱以及新 ...