Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) is one of the Buzzing AI Stocks on Wall Street. On September 4, Barclays analyst Ross Sandler reiterated an Overweight rating on the stock with a $275.00 price target. The firm looked at the math on how well Amazon Web Services is growing from AI workloads compared to non-AI workloads, with particular focus on Anthropic’s contribution to AWS revenue. It revealed that currently, Anthropic is only adding an estimated 100 basis points to AWS growth in Q2 2025. However, once Cl ...

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between Anthropic and AWS is significantly underestimated in terms of its revenue potential, with Anthropic's API business expected to outpace OpenAI's growth and contribute substantially to AWS's revenue [3][4][7]. Group 1: Anthropic's API Business Growth - Anthropic's API revenue is projected to reach $3.9 billion by 2025, reflecting a staggering growth rate of 662% compared to OpenAI's expected growth of 80% [9][11]. - Currently, 90% of Anthropic's revenue comes from its API business, while OpenAI relies on its ChatGPT consumer products for the majority of its income [7][9]. - The anticipated revenue from Anthropic's inference business for AWS is around $1.6 billion in 2025, with annual recurring revenue (ARR) expected to surge from $1 billion at the beginning of the year to $9 billion by year-end [4][8]. Group 2: AWS's Revenue Contribution - Anthropic is estimated to contribute approximately 1% to AWS's growth in Q2 2025, which could increase to 4% with the launch of Claude 5 and existing inference revenue [3][16]. - AWS's revenue growth for Q4 is expected to exceed market expectations by about 2%, driven by Anthropic's contributions [15][16]. - AWS's share of API revenue from Anthropic is projected to be $0.9 billion, with a significant portion of this revenue coming from direct API calls [5][9]. Group 3: AI Capacity Expansion - AWS is expected to expand its AI computing capacity significantly, potentially exceeding 1 million H100 equivalent AI capacities by the end of 2025 [18][22]. - The expansion is crucial for supporting the rapid growth of Anthropic's business, especially given the increasing demand for AI services [22][25]. Group 4: Challenges in Collaboration - Despite the benefits of the partnership, there are concerns regarding the relationship between AWS and Anthropic, particularly complaints about access limitations to Anthropic models via AWS Bedrock [4][24]. - Key clients like Cursor are reportedly shifting towards OpenAI's GPT-5 API, indicating potential challenges in maintaining customer loyalty [24][25].

Core Viewpoint - Barclays reports that Anthropic's API business has surpassed OpenAI in both scale and growth rate, significantly contributing to AWS's revenue [1][9][11]. AWS and Anthropic Collaboration - The deep collaboration between AWS and Anthropic is expected to drive substantial revenue growth for AWS, with estimates suggesting that Anthropic could contribute approximately 4% to AWS's quarterly growth by Q4 2025 [3][19]. - Barclays estimates that Anthropic's API revenue will reach $3.9 billion by 2025, with a staggering year-over-year growth of 662% [11][19]. - The report indicates that Anthropic's contribution to AWS's growth is currently around 1%, but this could increase significantly with the launch of Claude 5 and existing inference revenue [3][19]. Revenue Breakdown - In 2025, Anthropic's total API revenue is projected to be $3.9 billion, with direct API revenue accounting for $3.0 billion and indirect revenue at $0.9 billion [4][10]. - AWS is expected to generate $1.6 billion from Anthropic's API, with inference revenue contributing significantly to this figure [4][10]. Market Perception and Growth Potential - The market has not fully recognized the growth potential of AWS's AI capabilities, particularly in relation to its partnership with Anthropic [3][22]. - Analysts predict that AWS's revenue growth in Q4 could exceed market expectations by approximately 2%, driven by Anthropic's contributions [16][17]. AI Development Environment - The rapid growth of AI integrated development environments (IDEs) is a key factor in Anthropic's success, with tools like Cursor and Lovable leveraging Anthropic's Direct API [13][15]. - The AI IDE market is expected to exceed $1 billion in annual recurring revenue (ARR) by 2025, a significant increase from nearly zero in 2024 [15]. Challenges in Collaboration - Despite the benefits of the partnership, there are potential challenges, including complaints about access to Anthropic models via AWS Bedrock and key clients like Cursor considering alternatives such as OpenAI's GPT-5 API [22][26]. - The relationship between AWS and Anthropic may face strains as major clients explore other options, which could impact future revenue contributions [22][26]. Long-term Growth Outlook - AWS is expected to expand its AI computing capacity significantly, with projections of over 1 million H100 equivalent AI capacities by the end of 2025 [20][21]. - The collaboration with Anthropic positions AWS at the forefront of the AI revenue generation trend, despite uncertainties in the broader market [25][26].

亚马逊云服务AWS的AI增长潜力被严重低估，因与其深度合作的Anthropic的API业务正在为AWS带来显著营收贡献。 9月3日，巴克莱最新分析报告显示，Anthropic与亚马逊AWS的深度合作正为云服务巨头带来显著增长动力，但市场尚未充分认识到这一AI驱动增 长的潜力。如果AWS能够保持与Anthropic的训练工作负载合作，该公司有望在第四季度实现超预期的收入增长。 巴克莱分析师估计，Anthropic目前（2025年第二季度）为AWS贡献约1%的增长，但随着Claude 5训练和现有推理收入的双重推动，这一贡献可 能升至每季度4%。关键在于，Anthropic的API业务规模已经超越OpenAI，并且增长速度更为迅猛。 报告称，Anthropic在2025年将为AWS带来约16亿美元的推理收入，其年度经常性收入(ARR)预计从年初的10亿美元跃升至年底的90亿美元。不 过，业内对AWS Bedrock平台访问Anthropic模型的限制出现抱怨，显示两家公司的合作关系可能面临一些挑战。 | Anthropic API - 2025 | Direct | Indirect | | --- | --- ...

Core Viewpoint - Meta is shifting its AI model release strategy to better promote the development of "personal superintelligence," emphasizing the need for careful management of associated risks and selective open-sourcing of content [3][5][11]. Group 1: Shift in Open-Source Strategy - Mark Zuckerberg's recent statements indicate a significant change in Meta's approach to open-source AI, moving from being a "radical open-source advocate" to a more cautious stance on which models to open-source [6][8]. - The company previously viewed its Llama open-source model series as a key competitive advantage against rivals like OpenAI and Google DeepMind, but this perspective is evolving [5][9]. - Meta is unlikely to open-source its most advanced models in the future, which could lead to increased expectations for companies that remain committed to open-source AI, particularly in China [10][11]. Group 2: Investment and Development Focus - Meta has committed $14.3 billion to invest in Scale AI and restructure its AI department into "Meta Superintelligence Labs," indicating a strong focus on developing closed-source models [11][12]. - The company is reallocating resources from testing the latest Llama model to concentrate on developing a closed-source model, reflecting a strategic pivot in its AI commercialization approach [12][14]. - Meta's primary revenue source remains internet advertising, allowing it to approach AI development differently than competitors reliant on selling access to AI models [11]. Group 3: Future of Personal Superintelligence - Zuckerberg envisions "personal superintelligence" as a means for individuals to achieve their personal goals through AI, with plans to integrate this concept into products like augmented reality glasses and virtual reality headsets [14]. - The company aims to create personal devices that can understand users' contexts, positioning these devices as the primary computing tools for individuals [14].