Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of live pigs is expected to have limited upward momentum in the short - term due to weak demand despite some price - holding intentions from the breeding side. The price of corn futures rebounded slightly, but the upside space is also expected to be limited [5][8] 3. Summary by Related Topics Live Pigs - Futures: The LH2509 contract of live pig futures closed at 14,135 yuan/ton last week, down 1.5% from the previous week's settlement price [5] - Spot: The national average price of external ternary live pigs was 14.81 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11 yuan/kg [5] - Profit: As of July 18, the self - breeding and self - raising profit per pig was 90.89 yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 42.98 yuan; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 18.66 yuan per pig, a week - on - week decrease of 50.26 yuan. The pig - grain ratio was 6.17, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11 [5] - Market situation: The national live pig spot market was weak last week. Although there was some support from transportation and secondary fattening, the market was adjusted weakly due to the resumption of normal slaughter rhythm by breeding enterprises and weak demand. The inventory of sows capable of reproduction at the end of the second quarter was 40.43 million, 103.7% of the normal level. The inventory of medium and large pigs over 5 months old in June decreased by 0.8% compared with the previous month, indicating a possible decrease in slaughter volume in July and August [5] Corn - Futures: The C2509 contract of corn futures closed at 2314 yuan/ton last week, up 0.09% from the previous week's settlement price [6] - Spot: The national average price of corn was 2405 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 16.57 yuan/ton. The prices at ports such as Jinzhou, Bayuquan, and Guangdong Shekou all declined to varying degrees [6] - Industrial consumption: From July 10 to July 16, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.1005 million tons of corn, a decrease of 57,300 tons from the previous week. The processing volume of corn starch enterprises increased by 1100 tons, and the output of corn starch increased by 800 tons. The DDGS industry's start - up rate decreased by 4.62 percentage points to 38.34%, and the output decreased by 9400 tons, a decline of 10.75% [7] - Inventory: As of July 16, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 4.27 million tons, a decrease of 3.74%. As of July 18, the total corn inventory in the four northern ports was about 2.3 million tons, and the corn inventory in Guangdong ports was 1.07 million tons [7] - Market situation: The national corn spot market continued to decline last week. The auction of imported corn was weak, but the purchase price of deep - processing enterprises in North China rebounded after a continuous decline. The start - up rate of the corn starch industry was still at a low level, and the demand for wheat from feed enterprises decreased. With the new auction announcement, the decline of corn spot prices may narrow [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market in Shandong presents a situation of high supply and high demand coexisting. The demand in the third quarter is expected to be better than that in the fourth quarter, and the price is unlikely to experience significant fluctuations [19][22]. - The profit in the poultry breeding sector is poor, while the profit in the pig - breeding sector is still available. The feed demand for broilers, pigs, and ducks in Shandong is expected to be promising in the third quarter [13][19]. - Due to policy uncertainties, companies have not made large - scale purchases for the demand from October to January of the next year [6][25]. 3. Summary According to Different Enterprises Enterprise 1 - In the broiler industry chain, the price of chicks has dropped rapidly, with large - scale enterprise chick prices falling below 2 yuan per chick at the end of June (about 3 yuan per chick at the end of May). The hatching link still has a small profit, the slaughter link has a slight loss, and the deep - processing link of broiler food has the highest profit but poor sales [2]. - The feed cost shows that the corn price has increased, and the soybean meal price has decreased. The breeding profit of 817 broilers is not good [2]. - The daily consumption of soybean meal has increased month - on - month, mainly due to formula adjustment rather than feed sales growth. It is expected to remain stable in July compared with June, and if the formula remains unchanged, the consumption will continue to increase month - on - month in August and September, mainly due to the growth of feed sales [4]. - The current addition ratios of soybean meal are 6% in duck feed, 30% in broiler feed, and 8 - 10% in pig feed (this ratio was raised in mid - to late May). Without miscellaneous meal substitution in the short term, this high addition ratio is expected to last until September - October [4]. Enterprise 2 - The addition ratio of soybean meal in broiler feed has increased significantly from 25% at the end of March to 30% currently, and the current formula has reached the upper limit. The future growth of soybean meal demand mainly depends on the growth of feed demand (sales) [7]. - The export of poultry feed has obvious seasonal characteristics, with the sales peak from May to October (especially from August to October) and the off - season from October to December [8]. - It is expected that the company's feed production this year will be the same as last year [9]. Enterprise 3 - The sales progress of soybean meal contracts from July to September is about 80%, while that from October to January of the next year is only about 20% [12]. - The oil yield of new - season Brazilian soybeans is 22% (about 19% in previous years), and the protein content is lower. Now it mainly produces 45% protein soybean meal instead of 46% [12]. - In the breeding link, except for pig breeding, the profits of other sectors such as poultry and aquaculture are not good [13]. Enterprise 4 - The overall crushing profit of oil mills this year is acceptable. Currently, enterprises generally dare not purchase US soybeans but still have time to observe subsequent policy trends [16]. - The sales progress of soybean meal contracts from July to September is relatively fast, with relatively small sales pressure. However, the sales progress of forward contracts (after October) lags behind that of foreign - funded oil mills [18]. - It is expected that the feed demand for broilers, pigs, and ducks in Shandong will be promising in the third quarter. The soybean meal market will show a situation of high supply and high demand coexisting, but the price is unlikely to rise significantly due to the poor profit and high inventory in the downstream poultry industry [19]. Enterprise 5 - As of the end of June, the soybean purchase progress was too fast. The soybean crushing profit in the third quarter is good. It is expected that the expected arrival volume of soybeans from August to October will continue to be adjusted upward, and the expected terminal inventory pressure of soybeans in September will also be adjusted upward [21]. - The domestic supply of soybean meal in October is expected to be sufficient. The tightness of the spot supply from December to January of the next year and from February to March of the next year still needs to be observed [22]. - The current soybean meal market shows a pattern of strong supply and demand. It is expected that the demand in the third quarter will be better than that in the fourth quarter, and the price is unlikely to rise or fall significantly [22]. Enterprise 6 - It is expected that the soybean meal market will show a situation of high supply and high demand coexisting, and the demand for soybean meal from August to September is expected to increase compared with July [24]. - Due to policy uncertainties, large - scale purchases for the demand from October to January of the next year have not been made. The potential risk is that the possible cargo - right risk from December to January of the next year may drive up the price of the M2601 soybean meal futures contract [25]. Enterprise 7 - The month - on - month increase in soybean meal consumption is mainly due to formula adjustment. The current addition ratio of soybean meal in chicken feed is 25% [27]. - The feed sales in June were better than those in May, and it is expected to be the same in July as in June, with a month - on - month increase in August. August - September is the peak season for aquaculture feed sales, and the sales of pig feed are also expected to be good [28]. - The forward (October to January of the next year) purchase ratio of soybean meal is low [30]. Enterprise 8 - Currently, some oil mills in Shandong have started to urge customers to pick up goods to prevent the risk of warehouse overflow, but there is no widespread and substantial warehouse overflow phenomenon yet [32]. - The sales contracts of oil mills in July have been basically sold out, the sales progress from August to September is about 30%, and the sales progress from October to January of the next year is about 10%. The raw material procurement of downstream customers in June has been basically completed [32]. - The later demand for soybean meal is expected to improve month - on - month. The demand from August to September in the third quarter should be better than the current level. The demand for poultry feed and aquaculture feed may weaken from October to January of the next year, but the demand for pig feed is expected to increase [33]. Enterprise 9 - At present, the egg - laying chicken breeding is in a loss state, mainly due to high inventory. Feed enterprises have reduced the use of by - products and increased the addition ratio of soybean meal due to the high prices of corn and other feed by - products [35]. - The current spot price of soybean meal is cost - effective, and it is expected that the spot price of soybean meal will have strong support below 2800 yuan per ton. The position pressure in June was not large, but there may be some pressure in early July [35]. - It is expected that the M2601 contract may be relatively strong, mainly driven by the potential concern about the tight cargo - right from December to January of the next year [35].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the current challenges and dynamics within the poultry and soybean meal industry, particularly focusing on price fluctuations and inventory pressures [1][4][30] - The price of chick seedlings has dropped significantly, falling below 2 yuan per chick by the end of June, compared to around 3 yuan at the end of May, indicating a rapid decline in the breeding sector [1] - The processing segment of poultry products is currently the most profitable, although sales are weak, leading to high inventory levels, especially in the Shandong region [1][10] Group 2 - The oil mills are experiencing inventory pressure, with some urging customers to pick up products to avoid storage issues, and the operating rate is expected to remain high in Shandong by mid to late July [2][44] - The daily usage of soybean meal has increased, primarily due to formula adjustments rather than an increase in feed sales, with expectations for stable usage in July compared to June [3][33] - The soybean meal inventory pressure is anticipated to rise significantly by mid-July, with feed factories reluctant to accept contracts due to a preference for higher protein content soybean meal [4][10] Group 3 - The procurement attitude for soybean meal for the period from October to January remains cautious due to policy uncertainties, with expectations that the basis may weaken compared to July [5][34] - The current soybean meal addition ratio in chicken feed has increased to 30%, up from 25% in late March, indicating a shift in feed formulation strategies [7][49] - Seasonal characteristics of poultry feed sales show a peak demand period from May to October, with a notable increase expected in August and September [8][45] Group 4 - The sales progress of soybean meal contracts shows a disparity, with approximately 80% of contracts for July to September sold, while only about 20% for October to January [13][41] - The quality of Brazilian soybeans has been noted to be lower this year, affecting the protein content and overall supply dynamics [14][22] - The overall supply of soybean meal is expected to be sufficient in October, but the tightness of supply in December to February remains to be observed [28][46] Group 5 - The market for soybean meal is characterized by a balance of high supply and high demand, with expectations for better demand in the third quarter compared to the fourth [30][33] - The pressure on soybean meal prices is expected to be limited in July, but caution is advised for August due to potential fluctuations [31][54] - The current physical inventory of soybean meal is around 7 days, with Shandong showing higher inventory levels exceeding 10 days, indicating a passive accumulation trend [42][44]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The regional differentiation in the corn market continues. The price in the Northeast production area remains firm due to cost support, and attention should be paid to the impact of future weather changes on prices. The North China production area is under short - term pressure due to wheat substitution, and it is necessary to observe whether the wheat minimum purchase price policy can alleviate the substitution of new wheat for corn. The risk of delayed summer corn sowing cannot be ignored. As the domestic corn production areas enter the weather - driven market stage, the short - term trend of corn futures prices is more likely to rise than fall [4][60]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the price trend depends on the release rhythm of policy grains, changes in import scale, and the evolution of new crop weather. Weather changes can affect market sentiment in the short term and yield prospects in the long term if they persist. The release rhythm of policy grains affects the market supply of grains. Attention should be paid to the inhibitory effect of the wheat minimum purchase price policy in Henan on feed substitution and the potential impact of the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations on import pressure in the fourth quarter. With deep - processing losses and expanding import profits, the market is facing more intense long - short competition [4][60]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Corn Futures and Spot Prices Rise in Tandem - The continuous decline in wheat prices due to the completion of more than half of the new wheat harvest in North China has restricted the rise of corn spot prices. However, the launch of the wheat minimum purchase price policy in Henan has relieved the pressure on the domestic corn market, especially in North China [8]. - As of the week ending June 8, 2025, both the domestic corn futures main contract 2509 and the CBOT corn futures prices rebounded. Due to the fact that the remaining corn in domestic production areas is mainly held by traders with a mindset of hoarding and price - supporting, the domestic corn market price has shown small fluctuations recently. In early June 2025, the purchase price of corn in Heilongjiang and Jilin's deep - processing enterprises was in the range of 2120 - 2230 yuan/ton, with a partial rebound of 15 - 30 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Shandong, it was in the range of 2380 - 2500 yuan/ton, with a main fluctuation of 10 - 30 yuan/ton week - on - week [8]. 3.2 Wheat Minimum Purchase Price Policy Boosts Market Sentiment, and Drought Emerges in Some Production Areas 3.2.1 Henan Launches Wheat Minimum Purchase Price Policy, and the Quantity of Imported Grains Has Changed - As of June 8, wheat harvest in Hubei and Anhui has ended, and it is nearing completion in Henan. The harvest progress in Hebei, Shanxi, Shandong, and Shaanxi is slower than the same period in previous years. The summer sowing of corn in North China is expected to be slightly delayed this year. The launch of the wheat minimum purchase price policy in Henan on June 7 has supported wheat prices and restricted the substitution of new domestic wheat for feed corn [11]. - In terms of imported grains, the price of CBOT corn futures has rebounded, and the theoretical import profit of Brazilian corn for the third - quarter shipment has reached 450 yuan/ton. The first shipment of Brazilian corn to China in the second half of the year is waiting to be loaded, with an expected loading in mid - to - late June and an arrival in China around August. The import of Russian corn is expected to remain at a peak of 30,000 tons per month. The scale of Ukrainian corn imports has declined, with only 50,000 tons imported in the first four months of this year compared to nearly 200,000 tons in the same period last year. The scale of US corn imports has dropped below 10,000 tons since October 2024. Argentina and Australia are becoming the main sources of China's imported grains. In recent months, sorghum from Argentina and Australia has had the greatest impact on corn consumption, but the absolute quantity of imported grains arriving in China from June to August is expected to be significantly different from before [12]. 3.2.2 North Port Inventory Declines, and Price Inversion Continues - As of the week ending May 30, the theoretical cost of bulk - shipped corn arriving at southern ports is 2400 - 2420 yuan/ton, while the southern port price is 2410 - 2430 yuan/ton, resulting in an immediate theoretical loss of 30 yuan/ton. The arrival volume of new - season bulk - shipped corn at northern ports and at Shandong's deep - processing enterprises is low [21]. - As of May 30, the corn inventory at Guangdong Port has decreased to 1.15 million tons, with imported corn inventory at 3,000 tons and imported substitute grains (mainly sorghum and barley) inventory at around 700,000 tons. The corn inventory at northern ports (eight ports) has slightly decreased to around 4.5 million tons [21]. 3.2.3 Corn Growth in Production Areas Is Slower Than the Same Period Last Year, and Drought Emerges in Some Areas - In June, high - temperature and drought conditions in parts of North China may continue to affect summer corn sowing, but due to good irrigation facilities, it may not have a significant impact on local yields. As of June 7, most spring - sown corn in the north is in the three - leaf to seven - leaf stage. Corn growth in Heilongjiang is relatively fast, with nearly 80% of the corn in the seven - leaf stage. Compared with the same period last year, the proportion of corn in the seven - leaf stage in Heilongjiang and Jilin is higher, while in Liaoning and Inner Mongolia, it is lower. Due to low - temperature and less - rainfall conditions during the sowing period this year, the overall corn growth in the Northeast is slower than last year [27]. - In early June, the light, heat, and water conditions in most parts of the Northeast are favorable for crop emergence, but there is a lack of soil moisture in parts of Inner Mongolia and Liaoning, and heavy rainfall in some areas of Heilongjiang and Jilin may affect corn growth. In the next ten days (June 9 - 18), the weather in most agricultural areas in the Northeast is favorable, but heavy rainfall and strong convective weather may cause flooding or lodging of seedlings [27]. 3.2.4 Pig Feed Corn Consumption Is Difficult to Increase Significantly, and Deep - Processing By - products Are Affected by Trade Policies - In the 23rd week of 2025, the average slaughter price of live pigs in China was 14.27 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.83%. The breeding profit is in the range of - 150 to 100 yuan per head, with an average loss of 45 yuan per head. The pig - to - grain ratio is 5.98:1, within the green regulation range. Most breeding models are in a loss state, and relevant measures to control sow expansion, pig slaughter weight, and secondary fattening are not conducive to the growth of pig feed corn consumption. The impact of new wheat on corn consumption is the main obstacle, but the implementation of the wheat minimum purchase price policy in Henan may limit the expansion of wheat feed substitution [34]. - As of the week ending June 6, 2025, the corn purchase prices at deep - processing enterprises in Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Shandong have shown different trends. The deep - processing operating rate is at a low level. The corn starch market price is generally firm with slight local declines, and the corn alcohol price is fluctuating. The theoretical losses of corn alcohol and starch production in some enterprises have increased or decreased. The average operating rate of the corn starch and alcohol industries is about 51.5%, with the alcohol industry rebounding and the starch industry declining [35]. - The low operating rate of corn alcohol enterprises has led to a tight supply of DDGS, but due to the unfavorable protein price ratio with soybean meal, the DDGS price has shown small fluctuations. The average domestic DDGS price on June 10, 2025, is 2309 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4 yuan/ton. The supply shortage of domestic DDGS may support prices, but the opening of the Brazilian DDGS import market may have a negative impact on the long - term market [36][37]. 3.2.5 Sino - US Trade Relations Show Improvement, but Importing US Corn Still Has No Advantage - On June 5, US President Trump announced after a call with China's top leader that Sino - US trade officials would hold a new round of face - to - face talks. On June 9, Sino - US economic and trade teams held the first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism in London. The optimistic sentiment in Sino - US trade has pushed up US agricultural product futures prices [56]. - After the mutual reduction of tariffs between China and the US, China still imposes a 25% comprehensive tariff on US corn. The landed duty - paid price of US corn is 2340 - 2420 yuan/ton, which is lower than the domestic price in Guangdong Port but significantly higher than the price of Brazilian and Argentine corn, so it has no price advantage compared with South American corn [58].