证券研究报告 超威半导体(AMD) (AMD US) 客户集中度和订单节奏成焦点 华泰研究 年报点评 投资评级(维持): 买入 目标价(美元): 300.00 何翩翩 研究员 SAC No. S0570523020002 SFC No. ASI353 +(852) 3658 6000 易楚妍 联系人 yichuyan@htsc.com SAC No. S0570124070123 SFC No. BXH065 +(86) 21 2897 2228 韩冬冰* 联系人 SAC No. S0570125070150 handongbing@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 基本数据 | 收盘价 (美元 截至 2 月 3 日) | 242.11 | | --- | --- | | 市值 (美元百万) | 394,165 | | 6 个月平均日成交额 (美元百万) | 10,324 | | 52 周价格范围 (美元) | 76.48-267.08 | 股价走势图 经营预测指标与估值 | 会计年度 (美元) | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | ...

Core Viewpoint - Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) had a strong performance in 2025, with a stock increase of 77.3%, but faces questions about its ability to maintain this momentum in the AI sector in 2026 [1][3]. Company Performance - AMD's stock price rose approximately 121% over the past year, reflecting increased demand for its AI products, particularly the Instinct AI accelerators [4]. - The company reported a revenue growth of 36% year-over-year, reaching $9.2 billion, surpassing analyst expectations of $8.7 billion, with adjusted earnings per share of $1.20 compared to the estimated $1.16 [7]. - AMD's fourth-quarter guidance anticipates revenue of $9.6 billion, projecting a full-year revenue of $34 billion, which would represent a 31% growth rate [8]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The AI chips market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.7%, reaching $565 billion by 2032, indicating significant growth opportunities for AMD despite Nvidia's dominance [10]. - AMD's smaller market cap compared to Nvidia is viewed as advantageous, providing a substantial growth runway for the company [9]. Analyst Sentiment - A consensus among 43 analysts rates AMD stock as a moderate buy, with an average score of 4.4 out of 5, and a high target price of $380, suggesting a potential upside of 50% from its current price [11]. Competitive Landscape - AMD's strategy does not require it to surpass Nvidia in market cap; it simply needs to continue its current trajectory to remain competitive in the AI sector [6]. - The company has transitioned from being a late entrant in the AI market to a rapidly growing contender, with the potential to become a leading AI stock by 2026 if it successfully carves out its niche [12].

Summary of AMD Conference Call Company Overview - The company discussed is Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) Key Points - Piper Sandler raised the target price for AMD from $280 to $300, maintaining an "Overweight" rating [1] - The firm expressed strong optimism regarding guidance for the upcoming March quarter of 2026 [1] - For the December quarter of 2025, analysts expect AMD's revenue to exceed Wall Street expectations by approximately $200 million, with potential for even higher figures [1] - There is an anticipated upward potential of at least $0.02 in earnings per share [1] - Despite seasonal impacts from client, gaming, and EPYC CPU demand, the upward momentum for the March quarter's performance may be limited but still possesses potential [1]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company and Industry - The focus of the conference call is on Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), specifically regarding its performance and projections for upcoming quarters in the semiconductor industry [1]. Core Points and Arguments - Piper Sandler raised its target price for AMD from $280 to $300, maintaining an "Overweight" rating, indicating strong confidence in the company's future performance [1]. - The firm expressed high optimism regarding AMD's guidance for 2026 and the upcoming March quarter [1]. - For the December quarter of 2025, analysts expect AMD's revenue to exceed Wall Street's expectations by approximately $200 million, with potential for even higher figures [1]. - There is an anticipated upward potential of at least $0.02 in earnings per share for AMD [1]. - Despite seasonal impacts from client, gaming, and EPYC CPU demand, the performance in the March quarter is expected to have limited upward movement but still possesses potential for growth [1]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The mention of seasonal demand factors highlights the cyclical nature of the semiconductor industry, which could affect short-term performance metrics [1].

Core Insights - Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is poised for growth in 2026, driven by an expanding enterprise footprint and a strong partner network, including collaborations with major companies like Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), HPE, Oracle, Google, Microsoft, Alibaba, and IBM [1] Group 1: Partnerships and Collaborations - AMD and TCS are working together to create industry-specific AI and Generative AI solutions, integrating Ryzen CPU-powered client solutions for workplace transformation and utilizing EPYC CPUs and Instinct GPUs for modernizing hybrid cloud environments [2] - The collaboration with HPE is expected to enhance the adoption of AMD's "Helios" rack-scale AI architecture [2] Group 2: Technology and Infrastructure - AMD's Helios rack-scale platform is designed for yotta-scale AI infrastructure, capable of delivering up to 3 AI exaflops and optimized for energy-efficient training of trillion-parameter models [3] - Oracle Cloud Infrastructure will be the first to launch an AI supercluster using AMD's Helios rack design, while OpenAI has chosen AMD as a preferred partner for building 6 gigawatts (GW) of next-generation AI computing capacity, starting with 1 GW of AMD Instinct MI450 GPUs in the second half of 2026 [3] Group 3: Market Potential and Growth Projections - AMD's expanding product portfolio, including the Instinct MI400 series and Ryzen AI processors, positions the company well for growth in the data center market, which is projected to reach a total addressable market of $1 trillion by 2030, indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 40% from approximately $200 billion in 2025 [4] - Data center AI revenues are expected to grow at a CAGR of over 80% in the next 3-5 years, driven by demand for Instinct GPUs and a growing client base, including hyperscalers and sovereign opportunities [4] - Overall data center business revenues are anticipated to see a CAGR of more than 60%, while total revenues are expected to grow at a rate greater than 35% over the same period [4] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - AMD faces tough competition from NVIDIA and Broadcom in the data center space, with NVIDIA's products being widely adopted for AI computing and Broadcom experiencing significant demand for its networking products and custom AI accelerators [5][6] Group 5: Stock Performance and Valuation - AMD shares have increased by 103.1% over the trailing 12 months, significantly outperforming the broader Zacks Computer and Technology sector, which returned 19.1% [7] - The stock is currently considered overvalued, with a forward 12-month price/sales ratio of 9.18X compared to the sector's 7.18X, and it holds a Value Score of F [12] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AMD's first-quarter 2026 earnings is $1.20 per share, reflecting a 25% year-over-year growth [13]

Core Viewpoint - AMD is advancing its AI chip technology with the introduction of the next-generation MI455 GPU, which utilizes 2nm and 3nm manufacturing processes and advanced packaging, featuring HBM4 memory [1] Group 1: Next-Generation AI Chips - The MI455 GPU will be integrated with the EPYC CPU, and the next-generation AI rack, Helios, will include 72 GPUs, enabling the construction of large AI clusters by connecting thousands of Helios racks [1] - The MI500 series chips are also under development and will adopt the 2nm process [2] - With the launch of the MI500 series in 2027, AMD aims to enhance AI performance chips by 1000 times over the next four years [3]

Core Insights - AMD's CEO Lisa Su announced the next-generation AI chip MI455 GPU at CES, which will be manufactured using 2nm and 3nm processes and will feature advanced packaging with HBM4 [1] - The MI455 GPU will be integrated with the EPYC CPU, and the next-generation AI rack, Helios, will include 72 GPUs, enabling the construction of large AI clusters by connecting thousands of Helios racks [1] - The MI500 series chips are also in development, expected to utilize 2nm technology, with AMD aiming to enhance AI performance by 1000 times over the next four years with the launch of the MI500 series in 2027 [1]

Core Viewpoint - AMD has experienced significant stock growth, driven by strong demand for AI and datacenter products, alongside strategic partnerships with major companies like OpenAI and Oracle [5][14]. Financial Performance - Year-to-date, AMD shares have climbed 90%, significantly outperforming the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index's 32% gain [1][6]. - Q2 revenue reached $7.69 billion, marking a 32% increase year-over-year, with Q3 guidance set at $8.7 billion [1][11]. - AI revenue now constitutes 21% of total sales, primarily due to rapid datacenter demand [1][9]. Strategic Partnerships - AMD has secured major AI partnerships with OpenAI and Oracle, which are expected to generate tens of billions in annual revenue, with cumulative sales projected to exceed $100 billion [9][14]. - IBM has adopted AMD chips for quantum computing, utilizing FPGA processors for error correction, which enhances AMD's credibility in next-generation technologies [10][14]. Market Position and Analyst Outlook - Wall Street analysts are optimistic, with Bank of America and Jefferies setting 12-month price targets at $300, and HSBC raising its target to $310 [2][11]. - Approximately 60-65% of analysts rate AMD as a Buy, citing strong demand for AI and server chips [2][11]. - Despite Nvidia's dominance in the datacenter GPU market, AMD positions its products as viable alternatives [2][11]. Stock Performance - AMD shares surged 34% in a single day following the announcement of AI partnerships, with the stock price reaching an all-time high of $251 [5][15]. - The recent rally added approximately $80 billion to AMD's market capitalization, bringing it to around $380 billion, comparable to Intel [6][14].

Core Viewpoint - AMD has transformed from a laggard to a strong competitor in the data center CPU market, driven by advantages in CPU and a shift towards AI accelerators, despite short-term investor focus on volatility [1][2]. Group 1: Data Center Growth - AMD has established a multi-engine growth infrastructure encompassing CPU, GPU, AI PC, and future rack systems, which will drive long-term growth in the CPU market [2]. - The data center is the key battleground for AMD, with inference task computing power now surpassing training as the primary driver of demand [2]. - AMD's data center revenue reached $3.24 billion in Q2 2025, a 14% year-over-year increase, attributed to record EPYC CPU sales [2]. Group 2: AI Accelerator Performance - AI GPU revenue has declined due to the transition from MI300 to MI350 and export controls, leading to an $800 million inventory write-down [4]. - The upcoming MI355 is expected to outperform NVIDIA's B200 by processing 40% more tokens per dollar, a critical metric for large-scale companies [4][6]. Group 3: Long-term Differentiation - AMD's acquisition of ZT Systems enhances its capabilities in rack-level design, allowing it to compete directly with NVIDIA's offerings [9]. - The focus on autonomous AI projects across various markets positions AMD as a viable alternative to NVIDIA, especially in government projects requiring domestic infrastructure [12]. Group 4: Financial Outlook - AMD's expected P/E ratios for FY2025 and FY2026 are 40.4 and 26.2, respectively, aligning with industry medians, indicating potential for growth despite initial high valuations [13]. - Revenue is projected to grow from $33 billion in 2025 to $40.1 billion in 2026, with expected EPS increasing from $3.90 to $6.01, a 55% rise [13]. Group 5: Investment Perspective - AMD is viewed as a stable investment, with EPYC CPUs providing consistent revenue and GPUs and rack systems poised for significant growth in inference and autonomous AI demand [16]. - Recent stock price adjustments are seen as healthy corrections rather than trend reversals, with potential for long-term shareholder returns if AMD successfully executes its GPU roadmap [16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [5]. Core Views - The company achieved significant growth in net profit and revenue in the first half of 2025, with a net profit of 4.12 billion yuan, up 27.72% year-on-year, and revenue of 13.038 billion yuan, up 17.67% year-on-year [1]. - The growth is attributed to the company's ability to capitalize on the industry's recovery, diversifying its business across various sectors such as mobile chips, automotive chips, and home appliances [1]. - The strong performance of major client AMD, particularly in data center, client, and gaming segments, has provided robust revenue support [2]. - The company has made significant advancements in technology development, particularly in large-size FCBGA and optical-electrical packaging, enhancing its product offerings [3]. - Ongoing major engineering projects are progressing steadily, ensuring capacity enhancement and technological upgrades to support long-term development [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve revenues of 27.798 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.031 billion yuan, with further growth expected in subsequent years [4]. - The financial data indicates a steady increase in revenue and net profit over the next few years, with expected revenues of 31.968 billion yuan in 2026 and 35.165 billion yuan in 2027 [4]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.68 yuan in 2025 to 1.11 yuan in 2027, reflecting strong profitability growth [4]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is enhancing its market share in various application fields, including consumer electronics, by becoming strategic partners with key clients [1]. - The integration of operations between its Suzhou and Penang facilities is optimizing resources and expanding production capacity to meet increasing demand for AI and high-performance products [2]. - The company is focusing on expanding its client base and production capabilities in response to the growing demand for automotive and AI-related chips [2].