（来源：吴说） 作者：Haseeb Qureshi，Dragonfly 管理合伙人 编译：谷昱，ChainCatcher 链接：https://www.chaincatcher.com/article/2235299 声明：本文为转载内容，读者可通过原文链接获得更多信息。如作者对转载形式有任何异议，请联系我 们，我们将按照作者要求进行修改。转载仅用于信息分享，不构成任何投资建议，不代表吴说观点与立 场。 LP 有时会问我，我认为加密货币领域最优秀的风险投资人是谁。 Dan Robinson 就是加密货币界的 Mike Speiser。 Dan 一次又一次地参与了加密货币领域几家具有划时代意义的公司的发展。他从 Uniswap 诞生之初就参 与其中，是 Uniswap V3 的联合撰稿人和奠基人之一，而 Uniswap V3 后来成为了链上现货交易的基 石。他也是 Flashbots 的早期关键贡献者，Flashbots 催生了现代 MEV 拍卖。此外，他还是 Plasma （Rollup 的前身）的早期研究贡献者，并因此领投了 Optimism 的种子轮融资。 Dan 是一位真正的博学家。他打破了传统风险投资 ...

当地时间2026年1月5日，全球激光雷达领导者禾赛科技在拉斯维加斯国际消费类电子产 品展（CES 2026）上宣布重大产能规划：为匹配ADAS及机器人领域激增的激光雷达需求， 2026年年产能将从2025年的200万台提升至400万台，实现翻倍增长。同时，禾赛位于泰国曼 谷的新工厂"伽利略"建设稳步推进，预计2027年初正式投产，进一步完善全球产能布局。 作为全球激光雷达量产领域的标杆企业，禾赛已先后达成多个行业里程碑：2025年9月 实现年度第100万台激光雷达量产下线，同年11月累计第200万台量产交付，截至目前全系产 品历史累计交付量已超240万台。凭借持续的交付爆发力，禾赛已连续五年实现全年交付量 翻番，2025年全年交付超160万台，单月最高交付量突破20万台；其中ADAS产品交付约140 万台，机器人产品交付超20万台，爆款产品ATX首年交付即破100万台，以"年百万级"交付 能力定义行业标准。 强大的自研智造实力是禾赛产能翻番的核心支撑。禾赛自建集研发与生产于一体的综合 中心，搭配全自动化生产线，平均每 10秒即可下线一台激光雷达，确保大规模生产中产品 的高度一致性与稳定性。通过自主研发四代专用 ...

Core Viewpoint - Hesai Technology, a global leader in lidar technology, announced plans to double its annual production capacity from 2 million units in 2025 to 4 million units in 2026 to meet the growing demand in the ADAS and robotics sectors [1][3]. Group 1: Production Capacity and Milestones - Hesai is the first company to achieve an annual production volume exceeding 1 million units and has cumulatively delivered over 2 million lidar units [3]. - In 2025, Hesai's total delivery volume surpassed 1.6 million units, with a peak monthly delivery exceeding 200,000 units [3]. - The company has achieved a consistent doubling of annual delivery volume for five consecutive years, with 1.4 million units delivered for ADAS products and over 200,000 units for robotics in 2025 [3]. Group 2: Manufacturing Capabilities - The company's strong self-research and manufacturing capabilities underpin its plan to double production capacity [5]. - Hesai has established a comprehensive center integrating R&D and manufacturing, ensuring high-quality lidar production with consistency and stability [5]. - The fully automated production line can produce one lidar unit every 10 seconds [5]. Group 3: New Factory and Global Expansion - The construction of Hesai's new factory, "Galileo," in Bangkok, Thailand, is progressing steadily and is expected to commence production in early 2027 [7]. - This new facility will enhance Hesai's global production capacity and support future business growth [7][9]. Group 4: Product Innovations and Market Demand - At CES 2026, Hesai showcased its new generation of L3 automotive lidar solutions, which include the ETX and FTX models designed for enhanced vehicle safety [9][11]. - The new lidar solutions are expected to significantly reduce the risk of fatal accidents by 90% and conventional traffic accidents by 30% compared to pure vision systems [11]. - The penetration rate of lidar in China's new energy vehicle market has reached 28%, indicating strong market recognition of lidar's safety value [11]. Group 5: Client Base and Orders - Hesai has secured production contracts with 24 major automakers for over 120 vehicle models, including top-tier companies in Europe and China [12]. - The company has achieved 100% standardization for its first two major ADAS clients for all models in 2026 [12]. - The recently updated ATX model has received orders exceeding 4 million units from several leading automakers, with production set to begin in April 2026 [12]. Group 6: Robotics and AI Integration - Beyond the ADAS market, the robotics industry is experiencing rapid growth driven by AI, with lidar being essential for stable and precise environmental perception [13]. - Hesai's lidar products are widely used in autonomous vehicles from various innovative companies, with some models planning to use up to 8 lidar units [13][14]. - The JT series of mini 3D lidar has seen over 200,000 units shipped, demonstrating its versatility in various applications [14].

Company Overview - Hesai Technology is a global leader in lidar solutions and has surpassed 2 million cumulative lidar deliveries in 2025, enabling large-scale deployments in automotive and robotics applications [1][2] Market Trends - The ADAS market is rapidly growing, with lidar becoming a standard safety feature in vehicles. Hesai has secured design wins from 24 automotive OEMs for over 120 vehicle models, with deliveries planned from 2026 to 2030 [2] - Each Level 3 (L3) vehicle is expected to adopt three to six lidars due to safety redundancy requirements and new regulations, significantly expanding Hesai's addressable market [2] Product Showcase - At CES 2026, Hesai will showcase its next-generation L3 automotive lidar suite, including the long-range lidar ETX and short-range lidar FTX [2] - In the robotics sector, Hesai's JT series lidars are being integrated into products by leading innovators such as MOVA, Roboterra, Vbot, and Realsee, enabling high-fidelity sensing for AI-powered systems [3] Event Participation - Hesai Technology will exhibit at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) 2026 in Las Vegas from January 6–9, providing live demonstrations of its lidar technology [1][2][3]

Core Viewpoint - Hesai Technology has launched a new version of its lidar product, the ATX, featuring advanced specifications and a focus on enhancing safety in autonomous driving applications [1][21]. Group 1: Product Features and Innovations - The ATX new version incorporates SPAD technology, has 256 laser lines, a best angular resolution of 0.08 degrees by 0.05 degrees, and a range capability of 230 meters, with over 4 million units already ordered [1][21]. - The product utilizes Hesai's self-developed intelligent main control chip, the Fermi C500, which enhances performance without significantly increasing costs [1][27]. - The ATX new version aims to achieve "zero false positives" in safety, improving the reliability of autonomous driving systems [1][21][19]. Group 2: Market Position and Historical Context - In 2017, Hesai held only an 8% market share in the lidar sector, while Velodyne dominated with 90%. By 2022, Hesai became the market leader with a 74% share in the autonomous driving lidar field [7]. - The company initially focused on mechanical rotating lidar, which has since become a significant revenue source, despite early skepticism about its viability [7][8]. Group 3: Future Product Plans - Hesai plans to launch at least three new lidar products in 2024, including the ETX and FTX, which will further enhance performance and safety [29][31]. - The company has already produced the SPAD digital lidar FT120, which was first used in the Extreme Stone vehicle, and is set to expand its product offerings [15][21]. Group 4: Industry Insights and Competitive Landscape - The lidar market is evolving towards a digital and chip-based technology route, with a focus on enhancing performance and reducing costs [10][40]. - Hesai's CEO acknowledges the influence of major players like Huawei in promoting lidar technology, which has helped raise consumer awareness and acceptance [36][37]. Group 5: Strategic Vision and Market Expansion - The company emphasizes the importance of maintaining a robust supply chain with multiple suppliers to ensure safety and performance in its products [33][34]. - Hesai is exploring opportunities beyond the automotive sector, recognizing the potential for lidar applications in various industries [59][60].

Core Viewpoint - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 7.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.5%, and a net profit of 256 million yuan, indicating strong demand in both domestic and global markets for ADAS and robotic lidar products [2][9]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue for Q3 2025 was 7.95 billion yuan, up 47.5% year-on-year and 12.6% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 256 million yuan compared to a loss of 70 million yuan in Q3 2024 [2][9]. - Adjusted net profit for Q3 2025 was 288 million yuan, reflecting a significant recovery from previous quarters [2][9]. - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 42.1%, with a net margin of 32.2%, showing a year-on-year decrease in gross margin but an increase in net margin [4][14]. Business Segments ADAS Business - The company reported a strong order backlog in the ADAS sector, benefiting from increased downstream market demand [5]. - In Q3 2025, the company secured a partnership with a top three Chinese EV manufacturer for the ETX lidar, with plans for mass production by late 2026 or early 2027 [6][27]. - The company maintained a leading market share in the ADAS sector, with a 46% market penetration, significantly higher than competitors [28][31]. Robotics Business - The company has made significant inroads in the robotics sector, securing major contracts with leading global autonomous driving firms, representing multi-million dollar strategic partnerships [7][31]. - In Q3 2025, the company continued to supply lidar solutions for the Motional IONIQ5 Robotaxi, with each vehicle equipped with four lidar units [31]. Product Development - The company launched a new generation of automotive-grade lidar products, including the AT1440, ETX, and FTX, which are designed for various levels of autonomous driving [24][25]. - The AT1440 lidar is noted for its high point frequency, while the ETX lidar is recognized for its long-range capabilities, and the FTX lidar offers a wide field of view [24][25]. Market Position - The company has become the first lidar manufacturer to achieve an annual production milestone of over one million units, reinforcing its leadership in the lidar industry [32][33]. - The company successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, marking a significant milestone as the first lidar company to achieve dual primary listings in both the US and Hong Kong [36][37].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expected performance exceeding the benchmark index [5]. Core Insights - The company, Hesai (HSAI.O), reported a revenue of 795 million yuan for Q3 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 47.5%, marking six consecutive quarters of growth [2][23]. - The company has adjusted its full-year guidance, projecting total revenue for 2025 to be between 3 billion to 3.2 billion yuan, with a GAAP net profit forecast of 350 million to 450 million yuan [3][25]. - The company achieved a significant milestone by delivering over 1 million laser radars in the first three quarters of 2025, maintaining the leading market share in the ADAS sector [3][20]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 795 million yuan, a 47.5% increase year-over-year, driven by the standardization of onboard laser radar and expansion in the robotics sector [2][24]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, total revenue reached 2.027 billion yuan, reflecting a 49.3% year-over-year growth [2]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was reported at 42.1%, slightly down from the previous year, but expected to remain around 40% in Q4 [2][24]. - The GAAP net profit for Q3 2025 was 256 million yuan, marking a historical high and surpassing the annual profit target ahead of schedule [2][20]. Market Position and Delivery Volume - The company delivered 441,400 laser radars in Q3 2025, a year-over-year increase of 228.9%, with ADAS laser radar deliveries reaching 380,800 units [3][20]. - The company holds a dominant market share in the ADAS sector, with a reported market share of 46% as of August 2025, significantly higher than its competitors [3][20]. Future Outlook - For Q4 2025, the company expects net revenue to be between 1 billion to 1.2 billion yuan, with year-over-year growth projected between 39% to 67% [3][25]. - The company anticipates total laser radar deliveries for 2025 to reach approximately 1.6 million units, with expectations for 2026 to see deliveries between 2 million to 3 million units [3][25][28]. Strategic Developments - The company has secured significant contracts with major ADAS clients, with all models from its top two clients in 2026 expected to be equipped with Hesai laser radars [4][21]. - The successful IPO in September 2025 raised 614 million USD, marking the largest IPO in the laser radar industry, which will enhance the company's financial foundation and support future growth initiatives [20][22].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][39]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue growth of 47.5% year-on-year in Q3 2025, achieving a net profit of 256 million yuan, with strong demand for its lidar products in both domestic and global markets [1][6]. - The company has a robust order backlog in the ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance Systems) sector, with significant contracts secured from major automotive manufacturers [2][31]. - The lidar shipment volume reached 441,400 units in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 228.9% [7][39]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company's revenue was 795 million yuan, with a gross margin of 42.1% and a net margin of 32.2% [2][16]. - The total revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 2.027 billion yuan, a 49.3% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [6][39]. - The adjusted net profit for Q3 2025 was 288 million yuan, reflecting a significant recovery from previous losses [1][6]. Business Segments - The product revenue in Q3 2025 was 790 million yuan, up 57% year-on-year, driven by increased shipments of ADAS and robotic lidar products [1][6]. - The service revenue decreased to 5.3 million yuan, down 85.4% year-on-year, primarily due to a reduction in non-recurring engineering service income [1][6]. - The company has secured key partnerships in the robotics sector, including contracts with leading Robotaxi companies, enhancing its market position [3][32]. Market Position - The company maintains a leading market share in the ADAS sector, with a reported market penetration rate of 46%, significantly higher than its closest competitors [27][31]. - The company has successfully launched new lidar products aimed at various levels of autonomous driving, reinforcing its technological leadership [22][23]. Future Outlook - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 is set at 3.138 billion, 4.347 billion, and 6.037 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to reach 355 million, 513 million, and 881 million yuan [39][40]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the growing demand for lidar technology across multiple sectors, including automotive and robotics, with a strong pipeline of orders [39][39].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Outperform" rating, targeting a price of HKD 247.6, indicating a potential upside of 59.9% from the current price of HKD 154.90 [2][3][22]. Core Insights - Hesai Group is positioned as a global leader in LiDAR technology, with a strong market share in the ADAS sector, holding 46% of the market as of August 2025, which is 1.5 times that of the second-ranked competitor [3][7][13]. - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the adoption of Level 3 (L3) autonomous driving regulations, which will likely increase both volume and pricing for its products [5][24]. - The company has established partnerships with leading autonomous vehicle and robotics firms across North America, Asia, and Europe, indicating a robust growth trajectory in both the ADAS and robotics sectors [3][8][13]. Financial Performance - For 2025, the company forecasts revenues of RMB 3.037 billion, with a projected growth rate of 46% year-over-year [2][14][22]. - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenues of RMB 800 million, a 47.5% increase year-over-year, and achieved a GAAP net profit of RMB 260 million, surpassing its full-year profit target ahead of schedule [4][23]. - The total LiDAR shipments for 2025 are expected to reach 1.6 million units, with 610,000 units anticipated in Q4 2025 [22][23]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The company has launched the world's longest-range automotive-grade LiDAR, the ETX, which is expected to play a crucial role in the L3 market [5][24]. - The anticipated increase in the number of LiDAR units per vehicle for L3 models (3 to 6 units) presents significant market expansion opportunities, with each unit valued between USD 500 and 1,000 [5][24]. - The report highlights that Hesai's product mix, including the cost-effective ATX, is expected to contribute to revenue growth despite a projected decline in average selling price (ASP) by 8% quarter-over-quarter in Q4 2025 [3][14][22].

Core Insights - The company reported its Q3 2025 unaudited financial data, achieving a revenue of 800 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.5%, and a net profit of 260 million yuan, marking a historical high [1] - The company raised its full-year GAAP net profit guidance to a range of 350 million to 450 million yuan [1] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 42%, with operating expenses decreasing by 23% year-on-year, reflecting significant improvements from AI technology in cost control and operational efficiency [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company delivered a total of 441,398 laser radars, a year-on-year increase of 228.9% [1] - The ADAS product delivery in Q3 reached 380,759 units, up 193.1% year-on-year, with total ADAS deliveries for the first three quarters reaching 830,400 units [1] - The robotics sector saw a delivery of 60,639 units in Q3, a staggering increase of 1311.9%, with total deliveries for the first three quarters at 158,900 units [1] Strategic Partnerships - The company secured contracts for the 2026 model year with its top two ADAS clients, achieving 100% standardization of laser radar in their vehicles [2] - The ETX laser radar product was selected by one of China's top three new car manufacturers, with related models set to feature multiple FTX blind-spot radars [2] - The combination of main and blind-spot radars is expected to increase the number of laser radars per vehicle and the average selling price (ASP), with L3 vehicles anticipated to use 3-6 laser radars, leading to an ASP of 500-1000 USD per vehicle [2] Market Expansion - The company has made significant strides in the Robotaxi and Robotruck markets, collaborating with several autonomous vehicle companies, including Motional and JD Logistics [3] - Some models are equipped with up to 8 laser radars, including both main and blind-spot radars [3] - The company has secured multi-million dollar strategic partnerships with leading autonomous driving firms in North America, Asia, and Europe, continuing to provide core perception solutions for Motional's all-electric IONIQ 5 Robotaxi [3] Profit Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 416 million yuan, 697 million yuan, and 1.189 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with EPS of 2.66 yuan, 4.47 yuan, and 7.62 yuan [3] - The projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are 57.90, 34.54, and 20.25 for the respective years [3]