证券研究报告 核心结论 2）模型侧，我们认为多模态能力从根本上降低了大模型的理解、交互和解决实际问题的门槛，从而将其应用范围从 文字世界，极大地拓展至我们身处的这个物理世界，重点关注大模型多模态能力提升。 从"+AI"到"AI+"，AI巨轮破浪前行 ——2026年计算机行业年度策略 西部证券研发中心 2025年12月12日 分析师：郑宏达 S0800524020001 邮箱地址：zhenghongda@research.xbmail.com.cn 分析师：谢忱 S0800524040005 邮箱地址：xiechen@research.xbmail.com.cn 分析师：李想 S0800525040006 邮箱地址：lixiang@research.xbmail.com.cn 分析师：卢可欣 S0800525080006 邮箱地址：lukexin@research.xbmail.com.cn 2025年回顾：1）回顾2025年，年初以DeepSeek为代表的国内AI大模型取得较大突破，计算机行业于2月份走出一 轮显著跑赢大盘的独立上涨行情。4月，外部冲击与内部估值压力形成共振，导致板块出现一轮快速回调。经过调整 ...

Core Insights - Alibaba's CEO Wu Yongming emphasizes the necessity of an AI-native consumer-facing super entrance, leading to the launch of the "Qianwen" app, which achieved over 10 million downloads within a week, surpassing the growth rates of competitors like ChatGPT and DeepSeek [1][3] - The AI-to-C market is still open for latecomers, particularly for productivity-oriented AI, despite Alibaba's late entry compared to ByteDance and Tencent [1][3] Market Dynamics - The AI market is heating up with major players like Alibaba and Ant Group launching competitive products, including the "Qianwen" app and the "Lingguang" AI assistant, which quickly gained significant user engagement [3][5] - Current market leaders include ByteDance's Doubao with 172 million monthly active users, DeepSeek with 145 million, and Tencent's Yuanbao with 32.86 million, while Alibaba's previous app had only 3.06 million [3] Strategic Framework - Wu Yongming's AGI three-stage theory categorizes the development of general artificial intelligence into "learning human," "assisting human," and "surpassing human," with the current focus on "assisting human" capabilities [5] - The emphasis is on productivity-oriented AI rather than entertainment-focused applications, with both "Qianwen" and "Lingguang" highlighting their practical usability [5] Infrastructure and Ecosystem - The competition for AI entry points is not just about products but also involves a comprehensive battle for infrastructure and ecosystem support, with Alibaba's full-stack AI layout being a significant advantage [8][9] - Alibaba has open-sourced over 300 AI models, with downloads exceeding 600 million, establishing itself as a leading provider of open-source AI technology [9] Investment and Financials - Alibaba plans to invest over 380 billion RMB in cloud and AI hardware infrastructure over the next three years, with recent quarterly capital expenditures reaching 120 billion RMB [9][10] - Despite significant investments impacting short-term profits, Alibaba's core business remains strong, with a 10% year-on-year increase in customer management revenue [10] Future Outlook - The success of the "Qianwen" app could lead to increased demand for AI computing power and infrastructure, further driving Alibaba's investments in this area [9][10] - The ability of Alibaba to integrate its computational advantages, open-source influence, and extensive data into a seamless and intelligent consumer entrance will be crucial for its future success [11]

Group 1 - Alphabet's Q3 financial results exceeded analyst expectations, with revenue, profit, and full-year capital expenditure guidance showing double-digit percentage growth across multiple key businesses [1] - The Gemini app has over 650 million monthly active users, contributing to Alphabet's strong performance [1] - Following Alphabet's Q3 results, Anthropic announced a partnership with Google Cloud to utilize up to 1 million custom AI chips (TPUs), potentially generating up to $10 billion in annual revenue for Alphabet according to Bank of America [1] Group 2 - TPUs are specialized integrated circuits (ASICs) designed by Google, with the seventh generation, Ironwood, specifically tailored for AI inference scenarios, boasting extremely high peak computing power [1] - The Ironwood TPU, when configured with 9,216 chips, has a total computing power more than 24 times that of the world's largest supercomputer, El Capitan, with a chip-to-chip communication bandwidth requirement of 1.2 TBps [1] - New Asia Electronics has high-speed copper cable connections serving major clients including Dell, HP, Google, Amazon, and Microsoft [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the industry [4]. Core Insights - The release of Google's Gemini 2.5 Flash Image model has solidified its leading position in AI technology, showcasing advanced image generation and editing capabilities [4][6]. - The model has significantly increased user engagement, with over 12.6 million downloads in the first half of September, marking a 45% increase from the previous month [4]. - Google's optimistic outlook on AI investments is reflected in its Q2 financial report, where it announced an increase in capital expenditure guidance from $75 billion to $85 billion for the year, a 62% increase compared to 2024 [4][6]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The computer industry has shown varied performance over different time frames, with a 1-month decline of 5.1%, a 3-month increase of 15.6%, and a 12-month increase of 69.3% [1]. AI Model Development - Google's Gemini 2.5 Flash Image model is positioned as a state-of-the-art AI image model, outperforming competitors like ChatGPT 4o and GPT Image in multiple performance metrics [4]. - The model's capabilities include maintaining character consistency, modifying image details based on language instructions, and merging multiple images [4]. Financial Outlook - Google's core search business has seen an 11.7% year-on-year growth driven by new AI features, while its cloud business has grown by 32% [4]. - The report anticipates that continued investment in AI will empower core business areas and drive steady growth, with Gemini and other AI applications expected to become significant growth drivers in the future [6][7].

Core Insights - The success of Nano Banana is attributed to its unprecedented "character consistency" which has significantly enhanced user engagement and application downloads [1][5][6] - The Gemini app, associated with Nano Banana, has seen a remarkable increase in downloads, reaching 12.6 million in September, a 45% month-over-month growth compared to August [1][3] - Alphabet's stock price rose by 19.56% from August 26 to September 17, reflecting positive market sentiment towards the Gemini app and its underlying technology [1] Group 1: Product Performance - Nano Banana was anonymously released on August 26 and is identified as Google's Gemini 2.5 Flash Image model [1] - The Gemini app has climbed to the top of global app store rankings, achieving 12.6 million downloads in September, compared to 8.7 million in August [1][3] - The app previously peaked at third place in the US App Store on January 28, 2025, indicating a significant turnaround in user interest [1] Group 2: User Engagement and Feedback - Users have expressed excitement over the ability to see themselves in various scenarios, such as turning old photos into colorized images, showcasing the emotional value of the application [6][7] - Common user requests include higher resolution images and support for transparent backgrounds, indicating a demand for professional-grade features [6][8] - The integration of language models with image generation is seen as a key advancement, allowing users to ask for more complex and nuanced outputs [12][30] Group 3: Future Directions - The discussion highlights the potential for further integration of different modalities, such as voice and visual inputs, to enhance user interaction with AI models [16][17] - There is an expectation for models to become more proactive in generating content based on user needs, rather than waiting for explicit prompts [37] - The future of image models is anticipated to involve greater personalization and the ability to handle more complex requests, expanding their utility across various applications [28][29]

Core Insights - Google has launched the NanoBanana model, which offers image generation and editing capabilities, allowing businesses to integrate these features via API for various applications such as advertising and education [3][8] - The AI video generation platform, PixVerse, is one of the first to incorporate NanoBanana, providing users with a free trial to experience its capabilities [3][4] - NanoBanana is positioned as a mid-range pricing model in the industry, offering high-quality image generation at a competitive cost compared to other models [4][7] Pricing and Cost Structure - The API pricing for NanoBanana is set at $30 per million output tokens, with the cost to generate a single image approximately $0.039 [3] - Compared to competitors, NanoBanana is about 50% cheaper than Midjourney and slightly lower than GPT-Image-1, while still providing higher quality [4] Performance and Capabilities - NanoBanana excels in cross-image consistency, multi-image fusion, and natural language interaction, making it a strong contender in the AI image generation space [4][7] - Despite its advantages, users have reported issues such as high failure rates and less-than-ideal image quality for those with stringent requirements [7] Market Adoption and Trends - Other platforms like Adobe, Figma, and Genspark have also integrated NanoBanana, indicating a growing trend of businesses leveraging large model APIs for enhanced functionality [8] - The rise of "API economy" is noted, with increased usage and reduced costs leading to a more structured business model in various sectors including e-commerce and finance [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a method to solve the issue of aspect ratio control in images generated by Nano Banana, allowing users to modify existing images to fit desired proportions [2][4][12]. Group 1: Problem Identification - Users of Nano Banana face two main issues: low resolution of generated images and uncontrollable aspect ratios, making it difficult to use images in production [2][4]. - The output image's aspect ratio is determined by one of the input images, leading to inconsistency when multiple images are used [4][12]. Group 2: Proposed Solution - The solution involves using a reference image to control the aspect ratio of the generated images, allowing for modifications to both new and existing images [4][8]. - Users need two images: the original generated image and a reference image that defines the desired aspect ratio [6][16]. Group 3: Implementation Steps - The process requires inputting a specific prompt to instruct Nano Banana to redraw the content of the original image onto the reference image while maintaining the aspect ratio [13][15]. - The order of images is crucial: the image to be modified should be first, followed by the reference image to avoid errors [16]. Group 4: Additional Insights - The article mentions that using the Gemini2.5 Pro model in the Gemini APP yields better results compared to AI Studio when calling Nano Banana [15]. - A link is provided for users to download various aspect ratio templates for convenience [18].

Core Viewpoint - The article introduces the image editing model Nano Banana, highlighting its capabilities to simplify complex editing tasks and outperform traditional software like Adobe, making it accessible for users to enhance their photos effortlessly [2][4]. Group 1: Usage of Nano Banana - Users are encouraged to utilize Nano Banana on Google AI Studio for free and efficient image editing [4]. - The model allows for various editing tasks such as acne removal, body slimming, and outfit showcasing, transforming ordinary photos into high-quality images [5][15]. - Users can upload multiple images and input specific editing requests, with the model supporting continuous editing, although performance may decline after several iterations [7][9]. Group 2: Features and Capabilities - The upgraded model significantly enhances facial ID consistency, allowing for natural language commands to modify images, such as slimming faces or improving skin quality [19]. - Users can create flat lay photographs to showcase clothing items and try on outfits shared by other influencers with high accuracy [22][25]. - The model supports advanced editing techniques, including marking areas for modification and generating interactive images based on user-drawn sketches [28][34]. Group 3: Applications in Various Fields - Nano Banana can generate stickers from photos, providing a fun and creative way to produce personalized gifts [40]. - The model can add AR descriptions to images of famous landmarks, enhancing the educational experience [43]. - It shows promise in e-commerce by improving product image modifications, addressing issues like proportion discrepancies [46]. Group 4: Overall Impact - The article concludes that Nano Banana's capabilities can revolutionize various industries, including e-commerce, education, and media, by meeting the growing demand for visual expression [50].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The communication industry is experiencing high prosperity, with companies like Xifeng reporting a profit growth of over 50% year-on-year and over 300% compared to the previous year, indicating sustained high industry prosperity until 2026 [1][2] - Major companies such as Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng have exceeded market expectations, while companies like Shijia Photon and Lianjie Technology show significant growth potential [1][4] Key Insights and Arguments - The demand for 800G and 1.6T products is being continuously revised upwards by overseas e-commerce companies, leading to a concentration of market share among leading companies and benefiting others like Dongshan Precision and Lian Ke Technology [1][5] - AI applications are rapidly emerging, with significant investments in computing power driven by companies like Google, which has increased its capital expenditure to $10 billion to address supply chain bottlenecks [2][13] - OpenAI plans to release GPT-5 in early August, aiming for a revenue target of $40 billion in 2024 and $125 billion by 2029, with ChatGPT's weekly active users increasing from 400 million to 450 million [8][9][10] Company Performance - Leading companies such as Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, and Cambridge Technology have reported results that exceed market expectations, while others like Shijia Photon and Longxin Bochuang are expected to show rapid growth due to increasing overseas investments [4][5] - The optical chip industry is experiencing tight supply and demand, with new technologies improving efficiency and reducing costs, making companies like Taicheng Light and Robotech worth watching [2][17] AI Application Development - AI applications are increasingly yielding results, with significant showcases at events like the World Artificial Intelligence Conference, indicating a broad application across various industries [6] - Domestic companies are accelerating their investments in computing power, enhancing the overall investment in the communication hardware sector [7] Market Dynamics - The overall trend in the communication industry is expected to maintain a high prosperity state through Q3 and Q4, and into 2026 [3] - The macro environment is favorable, with performance upgrades becoming a consensus, and the potential for GPT-5 to exceed expectations could enhance the valuation of the entire sector [21] Investment Opportunities - Current market conditions present a significant opportunity for investment in computing power-related sectors, especially with major projects from Meta and Oracle expected to roll out by 2027 [24] - The combined investment from Stargate and Meta is approximately $500 million, expected to release over 100 million 800G optical modules, indicating substantial market growth potential [20] Additional Important Points - The stock price impact of ongoing performance upgrades is diminishing, necessitating a focus on application end explosions to validate closed-loop logic [16] - The supply chain for optical chips is expected to see a significant increase in output, with growth rates exceeding 50% in the coming months [22][23]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2] Core Insights - The electronic industry index rose by 2.85% last week, outperforming the CSI 300 by 1.16 percentage points [10] - Google's capital expenditure exceeded expectations, indicating strong growth in computing power demand, with a projected capital expenditure of approximately $85 billion for 2025, up from an earlier estimate of $75 billion [5][6] - The overall PE (TTM) for the electronic industry is 48.38X, which is in the 30.00% percentile of the past 10 years, while the PB (LF) is 3.83X, in the 38.05% percentile [4][10] Market Performance - The electronic industry index closed at 4854.41 points, with notable performances from companies such as Tonglian Precision and Suzhou Tianmai, which saw increases of 39.97% and 33.58% respectively [3][19] - The semiconductor sector reported a 4.65% increase, while components saw a decline of 0.85% [3] Valuation Metrics - The electronic industry's PE (TTM) increased by 1.55X week-on-week, with a maximum of 52.14X and a minimum of 32.14X over the past year [4][10] - The PB (LF) also saw a week-on-week increase of 0.10X, with historical maximum and minimum values of 4.07X and 2.39X respectively [4] Industry Dynamics - The demand for AI applications is significantly increasing, as evidenced by Google's reported growth in search queries and the rapid adoption of AI features across its platforms [6] - The Gemini app has over 450 million monthly active users, and the usage of AI video generation has surged, indicating a robust growth trajectory for AI applications [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in AI infrastructure, edge SOC, and the supply chain for foldable smartphones, with specific companies recommended for attention [8][22]