文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 准的超大盘股指数。 (2) H股指数 H股指数，全称是「恒生中国企业指 数」，也有地方称它为「国企指数」。 这里的国企指数，并不是说它只投资国 有企业，而是说它投的是中国企业。如 果一家公司的主营业务在内地，但是在 香港地区上市，这样的公司就属于H股 范畴。 H股指数也是大盘股为主，它的平均市 值规模甚至比恒生指数还要更大一些。 因为它的成分股中，包括了很多主营业 务在内地、大家比较耳熟能详的大公 司，比如腾讯、阿里，以及金融行业里 的银行、保险、券商股。 风险提示 本文仅为信息分享，不构成任何投资建议。市场有风险，投资需谨慎 。 基金投资组合策略过往业绩并不预示其未来表现 为其他客户创造的收益并不构成业绩表现的保证 ▼点击阅读原 文，免费学习大额家庭资产配置课程 (3) 香港中小 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the importance of historical data in understanding market cycles and the impact of index rule changes on valuation metrics. Group 1: Historical Data Reference - Historical market cycles typically last 7-10 years, making it essential to consider longer time frames rather than just 2-3 years to avoid incomplete analysis [2]. - It is recommended to find similar style indices with longer histories for reference, as they tend to exhibit similar performance patterns during different market phases [3]. Group 2: Index Rule Changes - Changes in index rules can lead to significant valuation shifts, making historical valuation data less relevant [5]. - For example, the change of the CSI 100 index name to CSI A100 altered its selection criteria from market capitalization to a leading stock strategy, affecting its valuation [5]. - The H-share index's transition from 40 to 50 stocks, including more internet companies, also resulted in a loss of reference value for historical valuations [6]. Group 3: Valuation Calculation Methods - Different weighting algorithms in index valuation can lead to changes in percentile rankings, impacting the perceived valuation metrics [6]. - The CSI Dividend Index's shift from market capitalization weighting to dividend yield weighting significantly altered its composition, affecting its valuation calculations [8][9]. Group 4: Economic Downturns - During economic downturns, declining profits can lead to an increase in price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios, which may not reflect actual stock price increases [11][13]. - For instance, small-cap indices like CSI 1000 and CSI 2000 have experienced profit declines over the past two years, necessitating the use of stable financial metrics for valuation [14]. - In cases of unstable or declining profits, the price-to-book (P/B) ratio may serve as a more reliable valuation metric [15].

Market Overview - The market has shown strong momentum, recovering from a recent decline of approximately 6% and closing at 4.3 stars [1][2] - Growth stocks that previously experienced significant declines have rebounded strongly [3] - The leading sectors in the market have shifted, with the ChiNext board experiencing substantial gains [4][5] Sector Analysis - The ChiNext and Sci-Tech Innovation boards, while both growth-oriented, have different industry compositions [6] - The Sci-Tech board is closely related to chips and AI, whereas the ChiNext is more associated with new energy, pharmaceuticals, and technology [7] - The Sci-Tech 50 index has reached high valuations earlier this year, while the ChiNext has recently started to catch up [8] Investment Cycles - The market operates in cycles, alternating between bull and bear markets due to economic cyclicality [23] - Three main cycles influence the stock market: fundamental cycle, liquidity cycle, and sentiment cycle [25] - The fundamental cycle reflects the growth rate of corporate earnings, which has been slow from 2022 to 2024 but is expected to recover by 2025 [26][28] - The liquidity cycle is influenced by interest rate changes, with anticipated rate cuts by the Federal Reserve likely to boost markets [30][31] - The sentiment cycle is characterized by investor emotions, which can lead to extreme optimism or pessimism [32][34] Investment Strategy - Investors should recognize that opportunities arise during market declines, while risks often emerge during market rallies [36] - Smart investors can capitalize on these cycles by buying during downturns and selling during upswings, while remaining patient during neutral periods [41] Valuation Insights - The article provides a summary of Hong Kong stock index valuations, which can serve as a reference for investors [43] - Various indices are listed with their respective price-to-earnings ratios, price-to-book ratios, and dividend yields, indicating the current market valuation landscape [45][46][47][48]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in the stock market, particularly focusing on the performance of the Hong Kong stock market and the pharmaceutical sector, while also addressing the impact of tariff announcements by former President Trump on global markets. Group 1: Market Performance - The stock market experienced a rise in the morning but turned to a decline by the afternoon, with both large and small-cap stocks showing similar minor declines [1][4][5] - The pharmaceutical and medical sectors remained relatively strong, showing slight increases [6] - The Hong Kong stock market also saw a decline in the afternoon but rebounded towards the end of the trading session, with overall slight gains [7][8] Group 2: Global Market Influences - Global markets have shown volatility, particularly following Trump's announcement of increased tariffs on European goods, which led to significant drops in European stock indices [12][13] - The U.S. stock market also experienced fluctuations after the announcement, reflecting a broader trend of market instability due to tariff concerns [14][15] - The increase in tariffs could potentially lead to higher inflation rates in the U.S., affecting the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [18] Group 3: Hong Kong Pharmaceutical Sector - The article highlights the performance of the Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector, noting that it has outperformed the A-share market, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 20% compared to A-share indices since the Lunar New Year [34] - The article provides insights into the valuation of pharmaceutical stocks in both A-shares and Hong Kong, indicating that many A-share pharmaceutical stocks are still at historical lows, while Hong Kong stocks are closer to normal valuation levels [42][43] - The article includes a valuation table for various indices, showing metrics such as price-to-earnings ratios and dividend yields for the Hong Kong healthcare sector [36][40][41]

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 今天大盘整体微跌，中证全指下跌0.7%，波动不大，还在5星。 大盘股微跌，小盘股下跌略多。 红利等价值风格整体上涨，遇到下跌的时候，价值风格通常比较抗跌。 成长风格微跌。 港股盘中也下跌，不过到收盘的时候恒生指数变成上涨。 1. 有朋友问，港股今年表现比较强。后面A股会跟上港股的表现么？ 去年9月份，最低到5.9星的时候，当时A股港股都是历史最低估值附近。 随后到去年4季度，两个市场都反弹，第一波上涨，幅度也相仿。 到今年春节前，都反弹到4.9-5星上下。 不过春节后，港股率先上涨。 从春节后到3月，港股恒生指数，比A股大盘股指数，多上涨了15%。 港股恒生医疗、港股科技，比A股的医药医疗、科技，多上涨了20%。 A股的估值还在5星上下。 如果A股有港股的涨幅，那也接近3点几星了。 2. 港股本身也是人民币资产为主。 内地公司在港股占比较高。 从去年9月美联储进入这轮降息周期之后，人民币资产整体受益。 A股港股的涨幅居于全球前列。其中港股的表现更强势一些。 一方面，港股是欧美投资者为主，这几年内地资金在港股比例逐渐提升，但目前还是欧美投资者比例高。 老外看好人民币资产， ...

五一假期就要结束了。 假期里A股没有交易，A股的估值也没有变化。 不过港股、美股是有交易的。 按照惯例，假期后也会更新下估值表。 1. 港股 港股周五是开盘交易的。 港股恒生指数假期里上涨1.74%，H股指数上涨1.92%。 中概股代表，恒生科技指数上涨3.08%。 4月初港股短期大幅下跌。 之后港股连续3周上涨。 港股科技、恒生科技在五一假期之前，也涨回到了正常偏低的估值。 假期里港股的涨跌幅也不会丢失，也会体现在基金净值的更新中。 例如5月6日港股基金的净值=5月6日当天港股涨跌幅+假期里涨跌幅。 文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 螺丝钉也更新了上周五收盘的港股专题估值表，供参考。 | 宽基指数 | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/5/5 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数代码 | 指数名称 | | 市盈率 市净率 股息率% ROE% | | | 分位数% | 分位数% | 近五年市盈率 近十年市盈率 近五年市净净率 近十年市净率 分位数% | 分位数% | ...