美国贸易代表办公室在25年12月23日放出消息，从2027年6月起对中国28纳米及以上芯片加征关税，这 乍一看像是要下狠手。初始税率设为0%，18个月后才逐步上调，得提前一个月公布具体数字。 美国政府说这是基于301条款调查，针对中国半导体贸易行为。可说实话，这公告来得有点晚，之前1月 1日就加了50%的关税，这次额外措施更像是补丁。全球供应链那么紧，美国企业离不开中国市场，这 步棋下得犹豫，明显留了后路。 这边刚说要加税，那边12月8日又批准英伟达出口H200 AI芯片到中国，还带上收入分成，美国政府分 走25%。这操作太矛盾了，高通、博通这些美企收入三成来自中国，要是真断供，得自己先崩盘。 中国是全球最大芯片买家，封装产能占一半以上，美国不敢一下子撕破脸。英伟达老总私下施压白宫， 就是怕产能闲置。说到底，这关税像场政治秀，雷声大雨点小，给中国留出时间调整。 美国为啥瞄准28纳米以上？这工艺是车用、工业、物联网的骨干，中国2023年就稳产了，靠成本低、交 付快，挤掉恩智浦、德州仪器不少份额。不是技术领先，而是产业链完整，制造业底子厚。 美国想维护自家优势，可中国从2014年国家集成电路基金起步，已投上千亿美 ...

Market Overview - Major stock index futures declined, with Dow futures down 0.14%, S&P 500 futures down 0.28%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.41% [1] Technology Sector - Large tech stocks fell before the market opened, with Amazon down 0.27%, Apple down 0.34%, Google down 0.45%, Meta down 0.44%, and Microsoft down 0.15% [2] Automotive Industry - Tesla significantly reduced the prices of its electric vehicles in South Korea, with the highest price cut reaching 6,490 USD (approximately 9.4 million KRW). The price of the Model 3 high-performance all-wheel-drive version is now 59.99 million KRW, down from 69.39 million KRW. The prices of two Model Y variants were also reduced by about 3 million KRW. Tesla's stock fell by 0.25% [2] Semiconductor Industry - Nvidia is negotiating with TSMC for new orders of its H200 AI chips to meet strong customer demand. Nvidia has requested TSMC to start producing additional chips, expected to begin production in Q2 2026. Nvidia's stock decreased by 0.37% [2] Financial Sector - Citigroup is gradually exiting the Russian market and expects to incur a pre-tax loss of approximately 1.2 billion USD from the sale of its remaining business in Russia. The sale of Citibank's remaining Russian operations to Renaissance Capital is expected to be signed in the first half of 2026, pending regulatory approval [3] Media Industry - Warner Bros. plans to reject Paramount's acquisition proposal again, as the board has not made a final decision but will meet next week. One concern is that Paramount did not increase its offer, which Warner Bros. previously deemed inferior to Netflix's offer [3] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes revealed significant divisions among officials regarding the timing and extent of future interest rate cuts. The FOMC voted 9 to 3 to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points for the third consecutive time, bringing the target range to 3.5%–3.75% [4] Leadership Change - Warren Buffett will officially retire as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway on December 31, with his protégé Greg Abel set to take over on January 1 [5]

Group 1: Semiconductor Industry Developments - Samsung and SK Hynix have received U.S. approval to continue exporting chip manufacturing equipment to China until 2026, allowing them to maintain operations in China [3] - The Trump administration has approved NVIDIA to sell H200 AI chips to China, with a 25% revenue share from these exports, a model that will extend to other U.S. companies like AMD and Intel [3] - NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang indicated that export restrictions have led to stagnation in sales in China, with potential zero sales in the upcoming two quarters, risking market share loss to competitors [3] Group 2: Semiconductor Supply Chain Roles - The three major companies—NVIDIA, SK Hynix, and Samsung—play distinct roles in the global semiconductor supply chain, with NVIDIA focusing on GPU and AI chip design, SK Hynix supplying high-bandwidth memory, and Samsung providing comprehensive solutions [3] - Huang emphasized the irreplaceable value of Korean companies in the development of next-generation memory like HBM4 and HBM5 [3] Group 3: Gold Futures Market Analysis - COMEX gold futures are currently trading at $4340.5 per ounce, showing a narrow trading range between $4316 and $4404, indicating a lack of clear direction in the market [4] - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at $4400 and $4433, while support levels are at $4316 and $4300, with a potential drop to $4200 if the latter is breached [5] - The market is experiencing a reduction in speculative net long positions, with the long position percentage dropping from 81%, reflecting ongoing profit-taking pressure [5]

Market Performance - On the first trading day after Christmas, the three major U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Nasdaq rising by 0.14%, the S&P 500 increasing by 0.08%, and the Dow Jones decreasing by 0.03% [1] Company Developments - Nvidia's stock rose nearly 1% as reports indicate the company plans to deliver its H200 AI chips to China before the Lunar New Year, boasting a performance increase of six times and a price increase of 30% [1] Commodity Prices - Gold and silver prices reached new highs, leading to gains in gold and silver stocks, with companies like Gold Resources and Coeur Mining rising over 3%, Pan American Silver increasing over 2%, and Newmont and Harmony Gold gaining over 1% [1] Storage Sector - Stocks in the storage sector experienced a collective rise, with SanDisk increasing by 3.5%, Micron Technology by 1.3%, and Western Digital by 1.5%. Market research firm Omdia anticipates a 40% price increase in NAND memory next year driven by AI demand [1]

Group 1: Market Trends - The three major U.S. stock index futures showed mixed results, with Nasdaq futures up 0.1%, S&P 500 futures up 0.02%, and Dow futures down 0.19% [1] - Geopolitical tensions and interest rate cut expectations have driven gold and silver prices to new highs, with gold surpassing $4,530 and silver breaking $75 [2][3] Group 2: Company Developments - Nvidia is reportedly planning to deliver its H200 AI chips to China before the Spring Festival next year, with performance increasing sixfold and prices rising by 30% [4] - Nvidia has reached a non-exclusive licensing agreement for inference technology with AI chip startup Groq [5] - Apple and other foreign smartphone brands saw a significant year-on-year sales increase of 128.4% in China for November [6] - Tesla's FSD v14 has successfully passed the "physical Turing test," receiving praise from Nvidia's robotics business director [7] - Elon Musk plans to revise Tesla's mission statement from "sustainable prosperity" to "extraordinary prosperity" [8] - Qianwen App has achieved over 40 million monthly active users and over 19 million weekly active users within 30 days of public testing [9] - JD.com is testing an independent app called "JD AI Shopping," which allows AI to assist with shopping and food delivery [10] Group 3: Industry News - Toyota has finalized plans to exceed a global production of 10 million units, including Lexus, by 2026 [11] - BP has agreed to sell 65% of its lubricants business to Stonepeak [12] - Biohaven's experimental depression drug BHV-7000 did not meet the primary goals of its mid-stage trial [13]

Group 1 - NVIDIA plans to deliver stronger H200 AI chips to China before the Lunar New Year, with an expected shipment of 5,000 to 10,000 modules, equivalent to approximately 40,000 to 80,000 H200 chips [2] - The price for the H200 8-card module is set at 1.4 million yuan, which is a slight increase compared to the H20's price range earlier this year [4] - The performance of the H200 is significantly enhanced, with a computational power value of 15,832, approximately 6.7 times that of the H20, offering a compelling price-performance ratio [4]

NVIDIA's AI Chip Export to China - NVIDIA plans to ship H200 AI chips to Chinese customers before the Lunar New Year in mid-February [1] - The initial shipment will consist of 5,000 to 10,000 chips from existing inventory [1] - Subsequent production capacity is planned to begin in 2026 [1] Regulatory Review - The plan is pending approval from the Chinese government [1] - The U_S_ government has initiated a review of NVIDIA's H200 chip sales to China [1] - The U_S_ Department of Commerce has submitted the export license application for review by the State Department, Department of Energy, and Department of Defense [1] - These agencies have 30 days to assess the application [1] - If agency officials disagree, the final decision rests with Trump [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market experienced a rise, driven by Oracle's stock surge following TikTok's agreement to sell its U.S. operations to a joint venture involving Oracle and Silver Lake Partners [1][3][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 292.73 points, or 0.61%, closing at 48,244.58 points [3][8]. - The Nasdaq Composite increased by 278.62 points, or 1.21%, ending at 23,284.98 points [3][8]. - The S&P 500 index gained 62.50 points, or 0.92%, finishing at 6,837.26 points [3][8]. Group 2: Company Developments - Oracle's stock saw a significant increase after TikTok's parent company, ByteDance, signed a binding agreement to form a joint venture named "TikTok USDS Joint Venture LLC" with Oracle, Silver Lake, and MGX [3][8]. - Prior to this surge, Oracle faced pressure on its stock due to concerns over its debt levels and AI spending, which affected other AI-related stocks like Broadcom and AMD [3][8]. - Nvidia's stock rose over 3%, amid reports that the Trump administration is reviewing the company's potential sales of advanced AI chips to China [3][8]. Group 3: Other Company Insights - Micron Technology's stock continued its upward trend, rising over 7% after a 10% increase the previous day, driven by strong revenue guidance for the current quarter [4][9]. - Nike's stock was among the biggest decliners, falling approximately 11% due to a revenue decline in the Greater China region and pressure from increased tariffs affecting its gross margins [5][10]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The market may experience volatility due to the expiration of options for four types of securities, known as "quadruple witching," with over $7.1 trillion in notional value set to expire, marking the largest single-day options expiration in history [4][9].

投AI & 全球配置会员闭门直播 下载小帮知道APP，看直播更流畅 本页内容不构成任何形式的投资建议或推荐。投资有风险，交易需谨慎！ 风险提示 & 声明 请注意，所有内容不构成任何形式的投资建议或 ◎川帮规划 本页内容不构成任何形式的投资建议或推荐。投资有风险，交易需谨慎！ 创始人介绍 小帮规划创始人、CEO ℃ 小帮规划 · 哈佛大学统计学硕士 · 师从诺贝尔经济学奖得主- "期权之父"罗伯特·莫顿 曾就职于国际顶尖金融机构（摩 根士丹利〟德意志银行、雪湖资 本）,项目累计超过50亿美元 16年专业投资经验 7年投资者教育及家庭资产规划 ● 服务经验 具备证券、投顾、基金从业资格、 ● 推荐，各位观众需要作出自己的投资判断。 9小帮以及小帮合作的任何IP无法保证用户100%artV ωιές l 超规划 © 川梨规划 瓣视辣钱。 投资有风险，交易需谨慎! 重点内容"*** 主要内容;科研 1、甲骨文、博通业绩 2 2、特斯拉Robotaxi、甲骨文数据中心、英伟达订单最新情况 3、美联储降息的关联事件进展 4、中国、印度、日本宏观经济数据分析 ω段 (○川碧柳圳 新产品运行， ◎川帮规划 (6)) 以下基金 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the computer industry, with key targets including Hand Enterprise, Wuxi Unicomp Technology Co., Ltd., Beijing Kingsoft Office Software, Hehe Information, Hikvision, Newland Digital Technology, Autel, and Hygon, with Dawning Information Industry as a related target [3][8]. Core Insights - Recent developments in the tech sector indicate that AI is advancing in both specialization and terminalization, exemplified by OpenAI's breakthroughs with the GPT-5.2 series and Zhipu's efforts to popularize cellphone AI [3][8]. - The USA has conditionally approved the export of NVIDIA's H200 AI chips to China, but this comes with significant restrictions, including generational locks and a requirement for a 25% sales commission to the US Treasury [3][8]. - In the commercial space sector, the Long March 12 rocket's frequent launches demonstrate efficient deployment capabilities, and the establishment of the "Space Computing Joint Laboratory" enhances domestic capabilities in space technology [3][8]. Summary by Sections AI Technology Developments - AI technology has made significant strides, with OpenAI's GPT-5.2 achieving expert-level performance in GDPval benchmarks, enhancing capabilities in long document reasoning and complex tool usage [3][8]. - Zhipu AI has open-sourced its cellphone project Open-AutoGLM, allowing AI to interact with mobile screens for cross-application tasks, significantly lowering development barriers for high-performance AI assistants [3][8]. Geopolitical and Supply Chain Considerations - The conditional approval for NVIDIA's chip exports reflects a complex geopolitical landscape, with the US aiming to protect national security while providing limited options for Chinese markets [3][8]. - The stringent conditions attached to the chip exports are expected to accelerate China's pursuit of domestic alternatives, fostering the growth of local AI computing capabilities [3][8]. Commercial Space Advancements - The Long March 12 rocket successfully launched 16 low-orbit satellites within 32 days, showcasing China's efficient deployment capabilities for large satellite constellations [3][8]. - The "Space Computing Joint Laboratory," established in collaboration with Shanghai Jiao Tong University and Guoxing Aerospace, focuses on developing autonomous space computing chips and in-orbit maintenance technologies [3][8].