证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2025 年 09 月 03 日 隆基绿能（601012.SH） 前期布局迎收获，硅片组件亏损收窄 | 财务指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 129,498 | 82,582 | 67,635 | 81,919 | 95,436 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 0.4 | -36.2 | -18.1 | 21.1 | 16.5 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 10,751 | -8,618 | -4,190 | 2,763 | 4,836 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | -27.4 | -180.2 | 51.4 | 165.9 | 75.0 | | ROE（%） | 15.1 | -14.1 | -7.3 | 4.7 | 7.8 | | EPS 最新摊薄（元） | 1.42 | -1.14 | -0.55 | 0.36 | 0.64 | | P/E（倍） | 12.0 | -15.0 | -30.9 | 46.8 ...

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is facing significant challenges, but Longi Green Energy has demonstrated resilience by substantially reducing its losses in the first half of 2025 [2][3]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Longi Green Energy reported revenue of approximately 32.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 15% [2][3]. - The company recorded a net loss attributable to shareholders of 2.569 billion yuan, which is a reduction in losses by 2.661 billion yuan compared to the same period last year [2][3]. - The first half of 2025 saw a shipment of 52.08 GW of silicon wafers and 41.85 GW of battery modules [2][4]. Cost Management - The significant reduction in losses was primarily due to a decrease in sales and management expenses, as well as a substantial reduction in asset impairment losses [5][6]. - Sales expenses and management expenses for the first half of 2025 were 839 million yuan and 1.343 billion yuan, respectively, showing a decrease of 490 million yuan and 395 million yuan year-on-year [5][6]. Market Environment - The photovoltaic industry is transitioning from explosive growth to a more stable development phase, with competition shifting from homogeneous price competition to differentiated value competition [6][7]. - Longi Green Energy aims to become the most valuable solar technology company globally, focusing on technological innovation and a comprehensive range of solar solutions [6][8]. Product Development - Longi Green Energy has successfully implemented its BC strategy, focusing on HPBC 2.0 technology products and deep scenario solutions to enhance its competitive edge [7][8]. - The company has achieved a module conversion efficiency of 24.8% for its HPBC 2.0 products, with significant market penetration across over 70 countries and regions [8].

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is facing significant challenges, but Longi Green Energy has demonstrated resilience by substantially reducing its losses in the first half of 2025 [2][5]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Longi Green Energy reported revenue of approximately 32.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 15% [2][5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 2.569 billion yuan, which is a reduction in losses by 2.661 billion yuan compared to the same period last year [2][5]. - The company achieved a silicon wafer shipment of 52.08 GW and a battery module shipment of 41.85 GW during the same period [2][5]. Cost Management - The significant reduction in losses is attributed to a decrease in sales and management expenses, as well as a substantial reduction in asset impairment losses [3][7]. - In the first half of 2025, sales expenses and management expenses were 839 million yuan and 1.343 billion yuan, respectively, showing a decrease of 490 million yuan and 395 million yuan year-on-year [7]. Market Environment - The global photovoltaic market is transitioning from explosive growth to a stable development phase, with competition shifting from homogeneous price competition to differentiated value competition [3][8]. - Longi Green Energy aims to enhance its competitive edge through product and business model innovation, cost control, and global expansion [8]. Product Development - Longi Green Energy is focusing on its BC product line, which has seen rapid growth in market penetration, with a shipment of approximately 4 GW in the first half of 2025 [9]. - The company has achieved a module conversion efficiency of 24.8% for its HPBC2.0 technology products, with expectations that by the end of 2025, over 60% of its high-efficiency production capacity will be from this technology [9]. Research and Development - As of June 30, 2025, Longi Green Energy has obtained over 3,500 authorized patents, including 480 patents for BC battery modules [4][9]. - The company's R&D expenditures for the first half of 2025 amounted to 751 million yuan, continuing its commitment to technological advancement [4][9].

Group 1 - JinkoSolar's global vice president shared China's experience in photovoltaic desertification control at the 2025 Summer Davos Forum, attracting international interest [2] - JinkoSolar supplied a total of 1.75GW of photovoltaic components for two major projects in Saudi Arabia and is involved in a 1.8GW project in Abu Dhabi, showcasing China's solutions for energy transition and desertification prevention [2] - The company aims to shift from global sales to global production and investment, exporting technology, systems, standards, talent, and experience to help local industries establish their own supply chains [2] Group 2 - China has the most severe desertification in the world, with 2.57 million square kilometers of desertified land, accounting for 26.81% of its territory [3] - Through large-scale greening projects, China has effectively managed 53% of its desertifiable land, achieving "zero growth" in land degradation [3] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the construction of large-scale wind and photovoltaic bases in desert areas, with a target of 455 million kilowatts of installed capacity by 2030 [3] Group 3 - The State Grid Corporation of China plans to integrate large-scale renewable energy into the grid, transmitting power from desert regions over distances of 2,000 to 3,000 kilometers [5] - By the end of 2024, the first batch of 50 large-scale wind and photovoltaic base projects will be completed, with an installed capacity exceeding 90 million kilowatts [5] - Continuous technological innovation has led to increased global recognition of JinkoSolar's products, with over 50% of orders coming from overseas clients [5] Group 4 - The systematic development approach of photovoltaic desertification control in China is seen as a model for other countries [5] - Building large-scale renewable energy bases in desert areas is an effective solution for integrating renewable energy generation with desertification control and ecological restoration [5][6] - This approach not only promotes green energy development but also creates economic growth points in desert regions through ecological restoration and energy industry integration [6]

Group 1 - The Chinese government has expressed strong opposition to the U.S. claims of violations regarding the Geneva economic talks, stating that pressure and coercion are not the correct ways to engage with China [2] - The U.S. President has announced an increase in tariffs on imported steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%, effective June 4, 2025 [2] - The South Korean presidential election results show Lee Jae-myung from the Democratic Party received 49.42% of the votes, marking the start of his presidential term [2] Group 2 - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has urged the EU to correct its proposed restrictions on Chinese companies participating in public procurement for medical devices, indicating that China will closely monitor the EU's actions [3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has launched a campaign to promote the use of new energy vehicles in rural areas, including tax reductions and infrastructure improvements [3] Group 3 - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange has announced periodic adjustments to its index samples, with several companies being added to various indices, effective June 16 [4] Group 4 - Local securities regulatory bodies are increasing their focus on "small essays" related to the capital market, aiming to collect leads and suggestions to improve the market environment [5] - The A-share market saw a positive performance with major indices rising, driven by financial stocks and new consumption themes, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3361.98 points, up 0.43% [5] - Stablecoins have become a focal point for analysts, with numerous related reports and events being held recently [5] Group 5 - The insurance sector has increased its equity investments, with the stock market value of the life insurance industry reaching 2.65 trillion yuan, representing an 8.43% allocation [6] - Xiaomi's founder revealed that the pricing for the new Xiaomi YU7 will be confirmed shortly, and the company is actively developing capabilities in the automotive sector [6] - NIO reported Q1 2025 revenue of 12.035 billion yuan, up from 9.909 billion yuan in the same period last year, but with an increased adjusted net loss [6] Group 6 - Seres reported May sales of 36,500 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 13.19%, with cumulative sales of the AITO M9 reaching 50,500 units, up 19.46% year-on-year [7] - The Pang Donglai Group achieved sales exceeding 10 billion yuan, with supermarket sales surpassing 5.5 billion yuan [7] Group 7 - The U.S. stock market saw all three major indices rise, with the Dow Jones increasing by 0.51% to 42,519.64 points, marking a four-day winning streak [7] - The OECD has revised its global economic growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 down to 2.9% [7] - Japan's 10-year government bond auction saw a significant increase in demand, with the bid-to-cover ratio rising to 3.66, the highest since April 2024 [7] Group 8 - The competition between Huaxi and Juzhi Biotech has intensified, with regulatory bodies now involved in the investigation of the product testing controversy that began in late May [8] - Zong Fuli is reportedly implementing a dual strategy of factory management and expansion in the beverage sector, indicating a significant shift in operational strategy [8]