机构：中邮证券 研究员：蔡雪昱/张子健 投资要点 品牌IF 椰子水延续良好表现，公司同步推进品牌建设与运营完善。IF 椰子水25 年预计保持较快增长势 头，增速领先行业平均水平；Innococo25 年上半年销量出现下滑，下半年受渠道调整影响订单交付，预 计整改后年底将恢复正常，因此我们预计下半年市场表现将继续承压。公司25Q3 市场份额较去年同期 有所提升，目前经销商库存处于合理可控的正常区间。从行业层面来看，2025 年椰子水行业预计整体 增速在27.18%，高于软饮行业整体增速7.78%、碳酸饮料5.52%、包装水12%和功能饮料10%，椰子水行 业整体仍处于高速增长期。 渠道持续扩张，网点拓展成效显著。公司25 年9 月签约中粮名庄荟，预计未来仍将有代理商拓展计划， 渠道布局力度不断加大，26年预计继续推进渠道拓展。成本端随着近几年原产地产能持续扩大，25 年 椰子采购成本有所下降，26 年预计除延续这一成本优化利好外，还将通过更多举措提升供应链运转效 率、进一步优化成本结构。品牌端9 月 Innococo 官宣代言人（时代少年团），同步推出新品，并配合开 展一系列市场营销推广活动。26 年将持续推进 ...

IF椰子水25年预计保持较快增长势头，增速领先行业平均水平；Innococo25年上半年销量出现下滑，下 半年受渠道调整影响订单交付，预计整改后年底将恢复正常，因此该行预计下半年市场表现将继续承 压。公司25Q3市场份额较去年同期有所提升，目前经销商库存处于合理可控的正常区间。从行业层面 来看，2025年椰子水行业预计整体增速在27.18%，高于软饮行业整体增速7.78%、碳酸饮料5.52%、包 装水12%和功能饮料10%，椰子水行业整体仍处于高速增长期。 渠道持续扩张，网点拓展成效显著 智通财经APP获悉，中邮证券发布研报称，IFBH(06603)旗下IF椰子水品牌2025年预计延续较快增长， 行业整体增速领先软饮赛道。公司渠道持续扩张并签约新代理商，同时成本端迎来优化。品牌建设方 面，通过签约代言人、新品推广及加大营销投入强化市场认知。维持"买入"评级。 中邮证券主要观点如下： 品牌IF椰子水延续良好表现，公司同步推进品牌建设与运营完善 公司25年9月签约中粮名庄荟，预计未来仍将有代理商拓展计划，渠道布局力度不断加大，26年预计继 续推进渠道拓展。成本端随着近几年原产地产能持续扩大，25年椰子采购成本有所 ...

证券研究报告：食品饮料 | 公司点评报告 股票投资评级 买入|维持 个股表现 -70% -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2025/6/30 2025/7/31 2025/8/31 2025/9/30 2025/10/31 2025/11/30 IFBH 食品饮料 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 | 公司基本情况 | | --- | | 最新收盘价(港元） | 16.69 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本(亿股) | 2.67 | | | 总市值/流通市值(亿港 | 42 | | | 元） | | | | 52 周高/低(港元） | 47.55/14.49 | | | 资产负债率(%) | 17.81 | | | 市盈率 PE | 17.4 | | | 第一大股东 | General | Beverage | | | Co., Ltd. | | 研究所 分析师:蔡雪昱 SAC 登记编号:S1340522070001 Email:caixueyu@cnpsec.com 分析师:张子健 SAC 登记编号:S13405240 ...

Core Insights - IFBH Limited, the parent company of IF coconut water, achieved a market capitalization of HKD 10 billion on its first day of trading, supported by only 46 employees [1][3] - The founder, Pongsak, transitioned from a textile heir to the beverage industry, investing heavily in technology and marketing to establish a strong brand presence [5][6][7] - The company's success is attributed to its "zero additives" marketing strategy and the growing consumer demand for natural products, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic [9][14][16] Company Overview - IFBH Limited was founded by Pongsak, who chose to pursue the beverage sector instead of inheriting a family textile business [5][6] - The company initially struggled in the mainland market due to high pricing but later capitalized on the trend for natural products [11][12][14] - The company maintained a lean operational model with a small team, achieving high revenue per employee [3][18] Market Strategy - The company focused on a "light asset" model, relying on effective supply chain management and marketing to drive sales [18][27] - It leveraged social media and celebrity endorsements to enhance brand visibility and consumer engagement, resulting in significant sales spikes during promotional events [22][24] - The introduction of limited edition products and collaborations with popular brands helped create a social aspect around the product, appealing to younger consumers [24][26] Challenges and Risks - The company faces rising raw material costs due to climate impacts on coconut production, leading to a 70% increase in procurement prices [27] - Production capacity issues with their contract manufacturer have resulted in order fulfillment challenges, impacting customer satisfaction [29] - Increased competition from private label brands and other coconut water producers has pressured pricing and market share [31][33] - The company's heavy reliance on coconut water for revenue (95%) poses a risk, especially as new product launches have not performed well [33][35] - Recent consumer skepticism regarding imported products has affected brand trust, leading to a decline in market capitalization shortly after the IPO [35][37]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the resilience of the consumer sector in the A-share market, with the Consumption ETF (159928) showing a slight increase despite overall market adjustments [1][3] - The Consumption ETF has seen a net inflow of funds, with a total scale exceeding 12.1 billion yuan, leading its peers significantly [1] - Major stocks within the Consumption ETF, such as Moutai and Wuliangye, have shown positive performance, while some brands like Dongpeng Beverage have experienced declines [3] Group 2 - Moutai's price has stabilized after a previous decline, with the 2025 flying Moutai box price recovering to over 1900 yuan, indicating a positive market sentiment [4] - The beverage and snack sectors are identified as having structural growth opportunities, with the tea and energy drink markets showing significant potential [4][5] - The white liquor sector is expected to undergo a valuation recovery, with leading companies like Moutai and Wuliangye offering attractive dividend yields of 3.6%, 4.8%, and 5.2% respectively [8][9] Group 3 - The consumer food sector is projected to see steady demand growth in the second half of 2025, with new consumption trends continuing to thrive [7] - The focus is on high-growth segments such as healthy beverages and snacks, which are expected to maintain innovation and market vitality [7] - The overall demand for the liquor industry may remain under pressure, but leading brands are anticipated to navigate through the cycle effectively [8]

New Consumption Overview - Master Kong launched a premium product, "Chao Lu Beef Noodle," specifically for Sam's Club, featuring over 60g of ingredients including beef tripe, tendon, and shank, cooked for over 12 hours [4] - Team Wang Design collaborated with Pharrell Williams' Billionaire Boys Club to release a new series called "SPARKLES - Life is a Race," with an immersive pop-up space planned in Fabula Paris [4] - Vans introduced a high-end line called OTW by Vans, featuring modern interpretations of classic shoe models [4] Dairy and Beverage Innovations - Haihe Dairy launched "Tianjin Sesame Sauce Yogurt," made with over 80% fresh milk and featuring local sesame and peanut sauce [7] - Lotte Chilsung introduced an innovative "Crush All-Open Can" beer, which allows the entire lid to be opened [8] Corporate Developments - General Mills is considering selling its Haagen-Dazs stores in China due to sales challenges in the market [8] - Feihe Dairy and Lihigh Foods established a joint venture named "Heli (Inner Mongolia) Dairy Co., Ltd." with a registered capital of 25 million RMB [8] - Jiamei Packaging and Lemon Republic formed a new company, "Yingtan Jialing Beverage Co., Ltd.," to innovate and produce healthy drinks [11] Financial Updates - IF Coconut Water's parent company, IFBH, passed the Hong Kong Stock Exchange listing hearing, reporting revenues of $87.44 million and $158 million for 2023 and 2024, respectively, with net profits of $16.75 million and $33.32 million, both showing over 80% year-on-year growth [11] - Dôen, a California women's clothing brand, completed a Series A funding round led by Silas Capital to accelerate retail expansion and infrastructure development [11] Strategic Partnerships - Lao Xiang Ji and DingTalk signed a strategic cooperation agreement to develop smart restaurants utilizing AI technology [12] - Louis Vuitton became an official partner of Real Madrid, enhancing its influence in global sports culture [12] - Nike postponed the launch of its collaboration with Skims, a shapewear brand owned by Kim Kardashian [12] - Oakley announced a partnership with Meta to develop smart glasses aimed at athletes [12] - Novo Nordisk and Alibaba Health formed a strategic partnership to create a one-stop weight management knowledge and service platform [12]

Group 1 - IFBH International Holdings Ltd, the second-largest coconut water brand globally, launched its Hong Kong IPO on June 20, backed by a 92.4% revenue contribution from China and an 80% year-on-year growth, making it a rare health consumption stock in the 2025 Hong Kong IPO market [1] - In the Chinese market, IFBH holds a 34% retail market share, significantly surpassing its closest competitor by seven times, while in Hong Kong, it has maintained a 60% market share for nine consecutive years [1] - The company operates with a lean team of only 46 employees and utilizes an outsourcing model for production and distribution, resulting in an increase in gross margin from 34.7% in 2023 to 36.7% in 2024 [1] Group 2 - The company's net cash flow from operating activities for 2024 is projected at $41.75 million, reflecting a 55% year-on-year increase, with cash and cash equivalents at $54.82 million, a remarkable growth of 251.4% [1] - IFBH's growth is heavily reliant on the Chinese market, which contributed 92.4% of its revenue, amounting to $146 million in 2024, with an impressive year-on-year growth of 82.3% [1] - The product line is highly concentrated in coconut water, which accounts for 95.6% of revenue, although the company plans to introduce coconut milk in 2025, which currently represents less than 5% of sales [1] Group 3 - The supply chain is entirely dependent on Thai coconut raw materials, with a significant 18% increase in raw material costs in 2024 due to high temperatures and drought [2] - The market share of IFBH's coconut water has dropped from 55.53% in Q1 2024 to 36.42% in Q1 2025, largely due to price wars initiated by local low-cost competitors [2] Group 4 - Despite having a revenue scale of less than 0.5% of Coca-Cola, IFBH demonstrates a growth curve and profitability that exceed industry averages, showcasing its "small but beautiful" high-growth characteristics [3] - The overall market sentiment is favorable, indicating a bullish trend for new stocks, including IFBH coconut water, which is expected to perform well [3] Group 5 - For new investors looking to participate in the Hong Kong IPO, the first step is to open a brokerage account and fund it using an overseas card; internet brokers like Singapore's ChangQiao or Wealth Broker are recommended for convenience [4][5][6] - The investment highlights for IFBH include being a market leader, high growth performance, and a light asset model, capitalizing on the health beverage trend and employing aggressive marketing strategies for category dominance [6]

Core Viewpoint - IFBH Limited, a Thai coconut water brand, has successfully passed the hearing for its IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, highlighting the rapid growth and popularity of coconut water among Chinese consumers [1][3]. Company Overview - IFBH Limited is a food and beverage company that originated from Thailand and was spun off from General Beverage, with its headquarters in Singapore. The company launched its coconut water brand, IF, in 2013 and entered the Chinese market in 2017 [1][4]. - The founder, Pongsakorn Pongsak, comes from a prominent Thai business family and established General Beverage in 2011, which is now a key supplier for IF [4][5]. Market Position - According to a report by Zhaoshih Consulting, IF has become the second-largest coconut water brand globally by retail sales in 2024, with a market share of approximately 34% in mainland China and around 60% in Hong Kong [2][6]. - IF has maintained its leading position in the coconut water market in mainland China for five consecutive years since 2020, significantly outpacing its competitors [2][6]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue reached $87.44 million in 2023 and is projected to be $158 million in 2024, with profits of $16.75 million and $33.32 million, respectively. Coconut water accounts for over 95% of the company's revenue, with more than 90% coming from the mainland China market [2][6]. Industry Growth - The global juice beverage market is expected to grow from $137.9 billion in 2019 to $161.6 billion in 2024, with coconut water being one of the fastest-growing segments [4]. - The coconut water market is projected to grow from 3.1% of the global juice market in 2024 to 4.2% by 2029 [4]. Competitive Advantage - IF benefits from its sourcing of coconuts from Thailand, which is the largest coconut-producing region globally, and has established a strong brand presence through effective marketing and local adaptation [7][8]. - The company has utilized celebrity endorsements to enhance brand visibility, significantly boosting sales through social media influence [8]. Supply Chain Strategy - IF has adopted a model that outsources production and logistics to specialized manufacturers, allowing the company to focus on brand marketing and channel management. This strategy has resulted in a cost advantage of 18% over competitors [9]. - The company plans to use IPO proceeds to strengthen its supply chain capabilities, which may indicate a shift from its previously "light" asset model [9]. IPO Context - The IPO is seen as urgent due to a contractual agreement that requires the company to complete the IPO by December 31, 2026, or face significant financial obligations [12]. - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange is experiencing a wave of consumer company listings, with several companies successfully going public in 2025, indicating a favorable environment for IF's IPO [13][15].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the business model and market positioning of IFHB, a Thai coconut water company, highlighting its impressive revenue per employee and the effectiveness of its light-asset strategy in the competitive beverage market [3][6][8]. Group 1: Company Overview - IFHB has an annual revenue of 1.16 billion, which is 4.7% of Bright Dairy, 2.5% of Nongfu Spring, and 0.3% of Coca-Cola [3]. - The company has only 46 employees, resulting in a remarkable revenue per employee of 25.21 million, which is 5.3 times that of Kweichow Moutai and 30 times that of Coconut Tree Group [3][6]. - The founder, Pongsakorn Pongsak, comes from a well-known family in Thailand and has a background in beverage manufacturing [5][6]. Group 2: Market Positioning - IFHB entered the Chinese market at a time when health-conscious trends were rising, leading to a significant increase in coconut water consumption [6][8]. - The company has maintained the top market share in China for five consecutive years, with a market share of 34% last year, significantly outpacing its closest competitor, Vita Coco [6][8]. - The compound annual growth rate for coconut water in mainland China from 2019 to 2024 is projected to be 82.9% [6]. Group 3: Business Model - IFHB's revenue structure is simple, with 95.6% coming from coconut water, and it operates on a light-asset model, outsourcing production and distribution [8][22]. - The company relies on five major distributors for 97.6% of its sales, allowing for a streamlined organizational structure [8][22]. - The use of Thai Nam Hom coconuts provides a cost advantage, with raw material costs being 18% lower than competitors [17][20]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The coconut water market appears small but is lucrative for IFHB, which has focused solely on coconut products, avoiding diversification into less competitive areas [27]. - The company has effectively utilized China's advanced logistics and sales systems to enhance its market presence [26][28]. - IFHB's marketing strategies, including partnerships with celebrities and collaborations with popular brands, have significantly boosted its brand recognition and sales [26][28].

Core Insights - IF Coconut Water, a Thai brand, has achieved remarkable success in the Chinese market, generating annual revenue of 1.156 billion yuan and capturing a 34% market share in 2024, significantly outperforming its competitors [4][11] - The company operates with a lean model, employing only 46 staff members while outsourcing production and logistics, which has been described as a "light asset myth" in the beverage industry [5][10] Company Overview - IFBH Limited, the parent company of IF Coconut Water, submitted its IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to raise over 1 billion HKD [4] - The company has maintained its position as the market leader in coconut water in China for five consecutive years since 2020, with a revenue that is over seven times that of its closest competitor [4][11] Operational Efficiency - The organizational structure of IFBH is highly streamlined, with 20 employees in sales and marketing, 5 in research and development, and 6 in logistics, demonstrating high operational efficiency [5][6] - The company relies heavily on outsourcing, with 96.9% of its procurement coming from five major suppliers, primarily General Beverage, which accounts for over 70% of its production [6][10] Sales and Marketing Strategy - IF Coconut Water's sales are predominantly driven by its top five distributors, which contribute approximately 97.6% of its revenue, with a dual-channel distribution model targeting both online and offline markets [7][10] - The company has invested significantly in marketing, with expenses reaching 7.4 million USD in 2024, primarily focused on the Chinese market, where online advertising and celebrity endorsements play a crucial role [10][14] Market Trends - The coconut water market in Greater China has seen explosive growth, with the market size increasing from 100 million USD in 2019 to 1 billion USD in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of over 60% [11][13] - The core product, "100% Natural Coconut Water," is positioned as a healthy beverage, appealing to urban professionals and fitness enthusiasts, which has been a key factor in its market penetration [11][13] Challenges and Future Outlook - Despite its success, IF Coconut Water faces challenges, including reliance on Thai suppliers and increasing competition from domestic brands offering lower prices [15][17] - The company's market share has declined from 47.48% in Q1 2023 to 30.33% in Q4 2024, prompting a shift in pricing strategy to remain competitive [17][20] - The sustainability of the light asset model is under scrutiny, as the company must navigate supply chain vulnerabilities and evolving consumer preferences in a competitive landscape [20][21]