晨会纪要 证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 30 日 核心结论 分析师 【医药生物】康宁杰瑞生物-B（9966.HK）深度报告：差异化平台助力创新 升级，双抗 ADC 管线未来可期 盈利预测与评级：预计 2025-2027 年公司营收为 4.32/4.84/5.96 亿元，同比 增长-32.5%/12.1%/23.0%，当前股价对应 PS 为 20.6x/18.4x/14.9x。考虑 到创新药布局成效显著，后续商业化放量增厚业绩、临床数据披露等催化较 多，向上弹性较大。首次覆盖，给予"买入"评级。 【有色金属】有色金属行业周报（2025.12.22 -2025.12.28）：宏观氛围偏暖 叠加供给约束，关注金属商品价格普涨行情 本周核心关注一：美国第三季度 GDP 远超预期，消费支撑增长但通胀与就 业隐忧并存。本周核心关注二：国家统计局公告，经最终核实 2024 年 GDP 现价总量为 1348066 亿元。本周核心关注三：工信部公告，预计 2025 年规 模以上工业增加值同比增长 5.9%。本周核心关注四：金属商品价格显著上 涨，现货白银价格年内涨幅扩大至逾 160%。 周颖 S080052008000 ...

2025年，在"双循环"新发展格局下，中国资本市场正经历一场深刻的蜕变。全球资本再平衡的浪潮中，中国逐渐成为那个不可忽视的核心锚点。 而在这一宏大叙事中，创新药板块无疑是今年最为亮眼的主角之一。行业从过去的"数量追逐"大步迈向"硬科技决胜"，资本市场也以真金白银投票：板块整 体走强，细分赛道黑马频出。 其中，康宁杰瑞在2025年不仅完成蜕变，在资本市场获得认可，年内股价涨幅220.57%(数据截止2025年12月22日收盘)，成为中大型未盈利生物科技公司中 的领跑者，更在近期荣获由格隆汇颁布的"年度创新力奖"，这一奖项背后，是对其"以平台化技术为引擎，实现管线高效、快速产出"创新模式的权威肯定。 那么，在创新药走向硬科技之路下，为什么康宁杰瑞能够脱颖而出?背后的底层逻辑是什么? 2025年，创新药板块走出了一轮清晰的结构性牛市。在估值修复、政策支持与BD出海浪潮的多重推动下，整个行业的估值体系正在被系统性重构。 资本市场的共识已然明确：创新药的投资逻辑，已从早先的"故事与管线"叙事，转向对"商业化兑现能力"与"持续创新动能"的深度定价。政策鼓励源头创 新、审评审批持续提速、头部药企海外授权(BD)高频落地：这 ...

康宁杰瑞 20251222 摘要 康宁杰瑞的 KN026 预计 2026 年获批用于二线及以上 HER2 阳性胃癌， 疗效超越现有临床指南药物，销售峰值预期超 30 亿元。一线乳腺癌及 新辅助临床数据也将在 2026 年读出并申报上市。 GSK003 是一种 HER2 双表位 ADC，采用糖基化定点偶联技术，疗效 和安全性优于 TDM1 等单靶 ADC。预计 2026 年二线 HER2 阳性乳腺 癌数据读出并申报上市，销售峰值预期超 25 亿元。 康宁杰瑞拥有糖基化定点偶联和皮下注射给药两大技术平台。糖基化平 台效率高于 Synaffix，皮下注射平台提升患者依从性。KN035 销售收 入和对外授权许可费是主要营收来源，公司 2024 年已扭亏为盈。 ADC 市场快速发展，康宁杰瑞专注于新一代 ADC 治疗范式，其糖基化 定点偶联平台产出的 ADC 疗效与安全性优于现有单靶 ADC，差异化靶 点布局带来 BD 机遇。公司管线包含多款创新型双抗和复方制剂。 KN026 在 HER2 阳性胃癌的临床试验中，mPFS 和 MOS 均优于现有疗 法，HR 值低于 0.3，可显著降低疾病进展和死亡风险。一线治疗 MOS ...

智通财经APP获悉，国金证券发布研报称，预测2025/2026/2027年康宁杰瑞制药-B(09966)营业收入 4.43/4.86/5.50亿元，同比-30.87%/+9.78%/+13.22%，归母净利润-1.05/-0.98/-0.24亿元，同 比-162.91%/+6.62%/+75.61%。采用DCF估值法，给予目标价14.30港元/股，首次覆盖，给予"买入"评 级。 JSKN003为公司自研HER2双抗ADC，该产品针对多适应症的III期临床试验在中国有序推进：在铂类耐 药卵巢癌全人群适应症中，其疗效与安全性已展现出优于Enhertu的特征，预计2027年完成数据读出并 报产;预计2026年向CDE提交2L HER2阳性乳腺癌的NDA;2025年10月启动中国HER2阳性转移性结直肠 癌适应症III期临床，该行预期JSKN003预期27/28/29年销售分成为0.05/0.57/1.08亿元。 差异化靶点布局与自研偶联平台双轮驱动，存在BD机遇 公司依托自有糖基化定点偶联核心技术平台，结合差异化靶点布局策略，构筑了多元化双抗ADC产品 矩阵：其中JSKN016为全球首个TROP2/HER3双抗AD ...

风险提示：临床试验进展不及预期;新药研发结果不及预期;市场推广及销售不及预期 JSKN003凭借技术创新构筑差异化竞争优势 JSKN003为公司自研HER2双抗ADC，该产品针对多适应症的III期临床试验在中国有序推进：在铂类耐 药卵巢癌全人群适应症中，其疗效与安全性已展现出优于Enhertu的特征，预计2027年完成数据读出并 报产;预计2026年向CDE提交2L HER2阳性乳腺癌的NDA;2025年10月启动中国HER2阳性转移性结直肠 癌适应症III期临床，该行预期JSKN003预期27/28/29年销售分成为0.05/0.57/1.08亿元。 差异化靶点布局与自研偶联平台双轮驱动，存在BD机遇 公司依托自有糖基化定点偶联核心技术平台，结合差异化靶点布局策略，构筑了多元化双抗ADC产品 矩阵：其中JSKN016为全球首个TROP2/HER3双抗ADC，已在肺癌、乳腺癌等适应症入组超400例患 者，市场潜在空间广阔;JSKN022作为全球FIC靶向PD-L1/ITGB6双抗ADC于十月启动首例患者给药， JSKN027为具备细胞毒性杀伤、抗血管生成及免疫调节三重作用机制的全球FIC双抗ADC，有望近期申 ...

交银国际发布研报称，看好康宁杰瑞制药(09966)ADC产品矩阵的巨大全球市场潜力，上调2025-27年收 入预测3-8%，上调目标价至13港元，评级升至"买入"。该行认为，凭借KN026及JSKN003，公司有望实 现在乳腺癌的全线、多亚型覆盖，并拓展其他HER2表达实体瘤的使用，借助差异化布局在HER2赛道拥 有一席之地。 ...

交银国际发布研报称，看好康宁杰瑞制药(09966)ADC产品矩阵的巨大全球市场潜力，上调2025-27年收 入预测3-8%，上调目标价至13港元，评级升至"买入"。该行认为，凭借KN026及JSKN003，公司有望实 现在乳腺癌的全线、多亚型覆盖，并拓展其他HER2表达实体瘤的使用，借助差异化布局在HER2赛道拥 有一席之地。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zhongyin International reports that CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (01093) experienced a 6% quarter-on-quarter revenue growth in Q3 2025, reaching 6.6 billion RMB, primarily due to the absorption of negative impacts on traditional oncology products. However, net profit decreased by 10% to 964 million RMB due to a significant increase in operating expenses. The target price is adjusted to HKD 8.5, maintaining a "Hold" rating, which corresponds to a 20x P/E ratio for 2026 [1]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - Q3 2025 revenue reached 6.6 billion RMB, reflecting a 6% quarter-on-quarter increase [1] - Net profit for Q3 2025 decreased by 10% to 964 million RMB, attributed to rising operating expenses [1] Management Guidance - Management maintains guidance for a mid-single-digit recovery in H2 2025 compared to H1 2025, despite uncertainties from the upcoming national centralized procurement renewal and strict control of medical insurance fund expenditures [1] - Anticipated product launches in H1 2026 include innovative products (e.g., Bai Zi II, KN026) and biosimilars (e.g., Omadubmab, Pertuzumab), although management remains cautious about the domestic market outlook for 2026 [1] Strategic Focus - To address domestic uncertainties, internationalization is emphasized as a key strategic priority [1] - R&D expenses are expected to increase by 15% to 20% year-on-year in 2026 [1] Revenue Forecast Adjustments - Zhongyin International maintains its 2025 revenue forecasts due to Q3 performance meeting expectations, but lowers revenue forecasts for 2026 and 2027 by 5.8% and 8.5%, respectively, due to uncertainties from national centralized procurement and potentially slower new product sales growth [1]

Core Insights - Zhongjin International reported that CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (01093) achieved a quarterly revenue growth of 6% to 6.6 billion RMB in Q3 2025, primarily due to the absorption of negative impacts on traditional oncology products [1] - However, net profit decreased by 10% to 964 million RMB, mainly due to a significant increase in operating expenses [1] - The target price has been adjusted down to 8.5 HKD, maintaining a "Hold" rating, which corresponds to a 20x P/E ratio for 2026 [1] Revenue and Profit Analysis - All core therapeutic areas experienced sales growth, indicating a positive trend in the company's product performance [1] - The management maintains guidance for a mid-single-digit recovery in performance for the second half of 2025 compared to the first half [1] - The anticipated uncertainty from the upcoming national centralized procurement renewal and strict control of medical insurance fund expenditures has led to a cautious outlook for the domestic market in 2026 [1] Strategic Focus and R&D - The management emphasized that internationalization is a key strategic focus to address domestic uncertainties [1] - R&D expenses are expected to increase by 15% to 20% year-on-year in 2026, reflecting the company's commitment to innovation [1] - Despite the expected launch of innovative products and biosimilars in the first half of 2026, the management remains cautious about the growth rate of new product sales [1] Forecast Adjustments - Zhongjin International has maintained its 2025 forecasts due to Q3 performance meeting expectations [1] - However, revenue forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been reduced by 5.8% and 8.5%, respectively, due to uncertainties surrounding the first to eighth batches of national centralized procurement and potential slower-than-expected sales growth of new products [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhongyin International indicates that the revenue of CSPC Pharmaceutical Group increased by 6% quarter-on-quarter to 6.6 billion yuan, primarily due to the recovery from negative impacts on traditional oncology products, with sales growth across all core therapeutic areas [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for the third quarter reached 6.6 billion yuan, reflecting a 6% increase compared to the previous quarter [1] - Net profit decreased by 10% to 964 million yuan, attributed to a significant rise in operating expenses [1] Management Guidance - Management maintains guidance for a mid-single-digit recovery in performance for the second half of 2025 compared to the first half [1] - Despite the anticipated launch of innovative products and biosimilars in the first half of 2026, management expresses caution regarding the domestic market outlook due to uncertainties from upcoming national procurement renewals and strict control of medical insurance fund expenditures [1] Forecast Adjustments - The firm has kept its 2025 revenue forecast unchanged, but has lowered the revenue projections for 2026 and 2027 by 5.8% and 8.5% respectively, due to uncertainties surrounding the national procurement renewals and potentially slower-than-expected sales growth of new products [1] - The target price has been adjusted down to 8.5 HKD, while maintaining a "Hold" rating [1]