Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to report Q2 2025 revenue exceeding 30.7 billion, with a projected gross margin of 19.0-20.0%, leading to a gross profit of approximately 5.833-6.14 billion [1][2]. Revenue and Profit Projections - The estimated revenue for Q1 2025 was between 25.543-26.148 billion, with the actual revenue reported at 25.98 billion [2]. - The revenue calculation for Q2 2025 is based on vehicle pricing adjustments and is projected to be around 30.721 billion after accounting for VAT [2]. - The gross profit for Q2 2025 is expected to be between 5.833-6.14 billion, given the gross margin estimates [1][3]. Operating Expenses and Profitability - Operating expenses for Q2 2025 are projected to be between 5.047-5.792 billion, which may lead to an operating profit ranging from 0.04-1.093 billion [1][3]. - Historical data indicates that the company has only once reported lower Q2 operating expenses compared to Q1, which occurred in 2024 [2]. Sales Performance - The company’s sales in June 2025 fell significantly short of expectations, impacting the overall profitability outlook for Q2 2025 [3]. - Despite the lower sales performance, the operating profit for Q2 2025 is likely to exceed that of Q1 2025, although it may not surpass Q3 2024 levels [3]. Financial Summary Table - A detailed financial summary table outlines the delivery numbers, operating profit, operating expenses, R&D expenses, and general & administrative expenses for various quarters, highlighting trends in profitability and cost management [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses organized malicious attacks against Li Auto, highlighting the use of social media to spread negative content about the brand and its users, which has raised concerns among the company and its customers [4][5]. Group 1: Organized Malicious Activities - A screenshot revealed a chat group where individuals were paid to collect and disseminate negative behaviors associated with Li Auto vehicles, such as improper parking and driving violations, with payments of 5 yuan per image and 8 yuan per video [3][4]. - Li Auto's management has acknowledged receiving numerous complaints from car owners about these organized attacks aimed at tarnishing the image of Li Auto users [4][5]. Group 2: Company Response - Li Auto has initiated legal actions against the perpetrators of these malicious activities, including gathering evidence and pursuing civil and criminal complaints to protect the rights of its users [5][6]. - The company has encouraged affected car owners to report any issues caused by these attacks, assuring them of support in combating the spread of false information [5][6]. Group 3: Industry Reactions - NIO's executive, Ma Lin, expressed disapproval of the indiscriminate attacks on Li Auto's user base, emphasizing the importance of fair treatment and urging for legal resolutions to the issue [9].

Core Viewpoint - Recent negative publicity surrounding Li Auto has led to significant distress among its car owners, with the company asserting that misleading information is being disseminated across multiple online platforms [1][3]. Group 1: Negative Publicity and Response - Li Auto's legal department reported that numerous car owners have expressed concerns about their vehicles being targeted, resulting in widespread criticism online [1]. - The company identified a concentrated effort to spread negative information, with 45 similar posts appearing on one platform within a single morning [3]. - Li Auto emphasized that this situation has severely impacted the image of its users and is taking legal action to protect its customers and the company's reputation [3][5]. Group 2: Stock Market Impact - Following the negative publicity, Li Auto's stock price fell by approximately 1.3% in Hong Kong, while its U.S. shares experienced a decline of 5.43% [6][7]. - The market capitalization of Li Auto is reported to be around 205.6 billion [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the negative impact of online misinformation on Li Auto and its customers, highlighting the company's response to protect its brand and users [1][4][9]. Group 1: Company Response - Li Auto's legal department reported that many car owners have expressed concerns about their vehicles being targeted, leading to widespread negative sentiment online [1]. - The company identified a significant amount of misleading negative information being disseminated across multiple platforms, with 45 similar posts appearing on one platform within a single morning [4]. - Li Auto stated that this situation severely damages the image of its users and disrupts their daily lives, prompting the company to take legal action against those responsible for the misinformation [6]. Group 2: Market Impact - Following the negative publicity, Li Auto's stock price fell by approximately 1.3% in Hong Kong, with a 5.43% decline in its U.S. stock price the previous night [9]. - The company's product head shared evidence of organized online attacks against Li Auto, indicating a coordinated effort to undermine the brand [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the market share trends of various automotive brands, particularly focusing on Li Auto and its competitors, highlighting fluctuations in market share from January 2023 to June 2025 [1][2]. Market Share Trends - Li Auto's market share increased from 6.97% in January 2023 to a peak of 13.14% in October 2023, before declining to 11.33% and 11.59% in November and December respectively [1]. - In 2024, Li Auto's market share fluctuated between 8.34% and 9.77% until June, when it rose to between 11.17% and 14.36% following the delivery of the L6 model [1]. - By June 2025, Li Auto's market share dropped to 9.35%, indicating a significant decline compared to the previous year [2]. Competitor Analysis - The article notes that while some readers perceive Seres/Wenjie as having a faster iteration speed compared to Li Auto, Seres' market share has not surpassed its peak since February 2024 [3]. - The market share of Seres reached a high of 10.66% in June 2024, but overall sales have not significantly increased despite a higher market share in the 400,000+ price segment [3]. - A comparison of market share changes from July 2024 to June 2025 shows declines for several brands, including Li Auto, NIO, and BMW, while Seres saw a slight increase of 0.38% [4]. Combined Market Share Insights - The combined market share of Li Auto and Seres reached a high of 25.49% in July 2024, suggesting that increases in one brand's share do not necessarily correlate with decreases in the other's [5]. - The expectation is that with the ongoing deliveries of new models, the combined market share of Li Auto and Seres could surpass the previous high of 25.49% [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the perception that individuals should not prioritize personal preferences when choosing a vehicle, particularly in the context of the Li Auto brand, and argues that owning a Li Auto vehicle can indeed be enjoyable for individuals [1]. Group 1: Reasons for Perception - Many believe that Li Auto vehicles are not designed for individual use due to the brand's focus on family-oriented marketing and product definitions, which often emphasize larger groups [2]. - Cultural factors in China promote the idea of self-sacrifice for family, leading to a perception that vehicles should cater to family needs rather than individual preferences [2]. Group 2: Product Features and User Experience - The Li Auto L789 model, which has been popular in 2023, emphasizes comfort over driving control, aligning with the notion of sacrificing personal preferences for family needs [3]. - Feedback from users has led to improvements in driving control in the 2024 L789 model and the 2025 L9 model, indicating responsiveness to consumer preferences [3]. - Li Auto's marketing predominantly targets family scenarios, with little emphasis on individual use, reflecting the company's belief that the family market is substantial [3]. Group 3: Advantages of Individual Use - Using a Li Auto vehicle as an individual can provide more convenience, such as the ability to keep more personal items on hand that may not be feasible in a multi-user scenario [4]. - The design of the MEGA model allows for a flat single bed setup, which is more advantageous for individual users compared to the L89 model, which has limitations in this regard [5]. - The placement of cup holders and other features in the MEGA model enhances the experience for individual users, allowing for better organization and accessibility [6][7]. Group 4: Overall Comfort and Utility - For individuals, the ability to prioritize personal needs when packing for trips can lead to a more enjoyable experience, as they can choose items that suit their preferences without compromise [8]. - The comfort level of Li Auto vehicles is highlighted as a significant advantage for individual drivers, making them less fatigued during use compared to competitors [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the delivery guidance and sales expectations for Li Auto's vehicles, particularly focusing on the MEGA model and its impact on the sales of other models like i6 and i8 [1][2]. Group 1: Delivery Guidance and Sales Expectations - Li Auto's delivery guidance for Q2 2025 is set between 123,000 and 128,000 units, with April and May deliveries recorded at 33,939 and 40,856 units respectively, indicating a June delivery forecast of 48,205 to 53,205 units [1]. - The expected delivery volume for June 2024 is 47,774 units, suggesting a year-on-year growth of 0.9% to 11.37% [1]. - During the Q1 2025 conference call, Li Xiang projected a steady state for MEGA at 2,500 to 3,000 units [1]. - If the MEGA model achieves 8,000 pre-orders, it could guarantee a minimum monthly sales of over 2,000 units, with average new orders of 1,000 units from June to December [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Consumer Preferences - There is a notable preference for 6-seat vehicles among families, primarily driven by the need to accommodate children, as the layout offers better convenience compared to 5-seat vehicles [2]. - Some consumers who initially preferred 6-seat vehicles reconsider their choice, finding 5-seat options sufficient due to better second-row space in certain models [2]. - The pricing of 6-seat vehicles is generally higher, with a greater proportion of range-extended models being sold compared to 5-seat options [2]. - The L7 model has consistently outperformed the L8 in sales, indicating a potential trend in consumer preferences [2]. - The sales performance of the i8 model could influence the i6 model's sales, with a successful i8 potentially leading to strong i6 sales, while a poor performance of the i8 still leaves room for the i6 to perform well [2].

申明: TOP2非常看好李想本人，李想一年会做出几百个几千个判断，出错是不可避免的，李想将来也 会判断出错的，乔布斯至死也坚持认为小屏才是正确的手机尺寸。关键是掌握正确的做事方式，然后 把事情做对。正确的做事方式不是永不犯错，而是不断犯错，系统性闭环迭代。实践认识再实践再认 识，配之坚韧不拔与时代运气。 2025年1月23日，TOP2判断李想本人当时是MEGA小市场派，因为其在2024年12月AI Talk上明确认为 车长的原因，导致李想认为MEGA只能在50万MPV里抢市场。 自2024年3月21日李想认错后，TOP2历经308天的深入思考，在2025年1月23日，在李想做出MEGA小 市场派观点后，TOP2仍然坚持MEGA是大市场。详见：《 肉呆视频引发MEGA新一轮辩经 》 2025年5月29日李想在25Q1电话会议上表示：" 我们之前MEGA的交付速度大约是每月1000辆。我 们预计新车型推出后销量将增加50%但实际上最终增加了超过150%,远远超出了我们的预期。我 们希望增加生产能力，以维持每月2500到3000辆的稳定交付量。 " 可以印证TOP2的观点。 围绕MEGA的所以主流争论都是围绕这条主 ...

Core Viewpoint - Li Auto is facing increasing competition in the market, with a need to boost sales after a slow first half of the year. The company reported a slight revenue increase but is under pressure to meet its second-quarter guidance amid a challenging market environment [2][3]. Financial Performance - In Q1, Li Auto delivered 92,900 vehicles, resulting in total revenue of 25.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%. The net profit for the quarter was 647 million, up 9.4%, making it the only new energy vehicle company to achieve ten consecutive quarters of profitability [2]. - Vehicle revenue reached 24.7 billion, exceeding market expectations of 24.1 billion, attributed to an improved vehicle mix with higher-margin models gaining share [2]. Market Competition - The market for range-extended vehicles is becoming increasingly competitive, with rivals like Denza N9, Lynk & Co 900, and Aito launching new models that are capturing market share from Li Auto [3]. - The sales growth of range-extended models is lagging behind the overall market, with only a 3.5% increase compared to significant growth in pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles [2]. Product Strategy - Li Auto is focusing on its second growth curve with the launch of its pure electric series, which has shown promising order growth, particularly for the MEGA model, which saw a 150% increase in orders [4]. - The company plans to release the i8 and i6 models in July and September, respectively, aiming to enhance features such as driving range and autonomous driving capabilities [5]. Sales and Marketing Strategy - Li Auto is implementing a "Starry Sky" plan to penetrate lower-tier cities, targeting a market share of over 28% in certain regions since opening stores [6]. - The company aims to achieve over 100,000 total sales from lower-tier cities by 2026 as part of its expansion strategy [6]. Future Outlook - Li Auto has set an ambitious target of reaching 300 billion in annual revenue, which would require a sales volume of 1.1 million vehicles per year to support this revenue goal [8]. - The company is also looking to expand its presence in Asian and European markets, aiming for overseas sales to account for 30% of total sales in the future [7].

Group 1 - The core assumption is that MEGA currently has around 8000 pre-orders, based on two pieces of information: community feedback and a circulated image showing 7800 pre-orders as of May 18 [1][2] - If MEGA delivers 1000 units in May, there will be 7000 pre-orders remaining. If the monthly order is 1000 for the next 7 months, it will total 14000 orders, leading to a monthly sales target of 2000 units [1] - If the monthly order increases to 1500, it will result in 17500 orders and a monthly sales target of 2500 units. For a monthly order of 2000, it will lead to 21000 orders and a monthly sales target of 3000 units [1] Group 2 - The expectation is that if MEGA can achieve a monthly sales volume of 3000, some customers from the small market segment may shift to the larger market segment [1] - Common misconceptions about MEGA, such as parking difficulties, the need for a villa, and concerns about charging experience, are seen as misunderstandings that could be addressed [2] - A monthly sales volume of 5000 units could demonstrate that MEGA is indeed a product for the larger market, with potential opportunities for the next generation of MEGA [2]