文 | 一刻商业，作者 | 大椿，编辑 | 以安 阿里AI to C的野心尽显。 一周前，当阿里启动千问App公测，宣布全面对标 ChatGPT，打造未来的AI生活入口时，市场不乏质 疑之声，认为其在国内AI to C的科技竞赛中丧失先发优势。 仅仅一周之后，千问以一周破千万下载量，平均每分钟近千次的下载速度，打破了大模型增长纪录，开 启了"后发赶超"的新叙事。此前，ChatGPT从2023年5月上线到千万下载，耗时了三个月之久。 图/千问官方微博 受AI相关市场消息刺激，财报发布的前两天，阿里股价一直呈上涨趋势。 这一涨势持续到了财报发布后。最新财报显示，阿里迎来了一个多项指标超出预期的财季，阿里巴巴集 团整体营收达2478亿元，剔除高鑫零售和银泰后，同比增长15%，超出市场预期。 更值得关注的是，阿里财报会上的战略定调，阿里CEO吴泳铭首次强调了新的AI战略：阿里正在AI to B和AI to C两大方向齐发力，to B端，做世界领先的全栈AI服务商；to C领域，基于性能领先的AI模型 和阿里生态优势，打造面向C端用户的AI超级原生应用。 阵仗浩大，雄心可见。但问题也随之而来：外部竞争白热化，ChatG ...

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba is experiencing a "restart year" in 2023, as indicated by its mid-term financial results for the fiscal year 2026, which show mixed performance but also signs of resilience and potential growth in its core e-commerce and AI sectors [1][3]. Financial Performance - Alibaba reported revenue of 247.795 billion RMB for the fiscal year 2026, reflecting a 5% year-on-year increase [2]. - Operating profit decreased significantly by 85% to 5.365 billion RMB, while net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders fell by 52% to 20.990 billion RMB [2]. - The adjusted EBITDA also saw a decline of 64%, indicating challenges in profitability despite revenue growth [2]. E-commerce Business - The Chinese e-commerce segment generated 132.578 billion RMB in revenue, marking a 16% increase year-on-year, showcasing a stable recovery in this core area [4][5]. - Instant retail, particularly through Taobao Flash Sale, has shown remarkable growth, with revenue increasing by 60% [5][6]. - The integration of offline stores into the instant retail model has improved unit economics and user engagement, leading to a return of double-digit user growth on the Taobao app [6][8]. AI Development - Alibaba's cloud intelligence group reported revenue of 398.24 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of 34%, driven by increased adoption of AI-related products [9][11]. - The launch of the "Qianwen" AI application has gained significant traction, achieving over 10 million downloads within a week and becoming one of the fastest-growing AI applications globally [11][13]. - This strategic shift towards consumer-facing AI marks a departure from Alibaba's previous focus on B2B AI services, positioning the company to leverage its AI capabilities across various consumer applications [14][17]. Industry Trends - The e-commerce sector is undergoing a transformation with the integration of AI, as seen during the recent Double 11 shopping festival, where AI tools significantly enhanced user experience and sales efficiency [18][20]. - However, the rapid adoption of AI has also led to challenges, including issues with product authenticity and the emergence of gray market practices, prompting platforms to implement stricter regulations [28][29]. Conclusion - Alibaba is in a critical phase of transformation, aiming to evolve from a traditional e-commerce company into a comprehensive AI-driven entity, with ongoing challenges and opportunities in both its financial performance and market positioning [29].

Core Insights - The company reported better-than-expected revenue and adjusted EBITA for 2QFY26, with revenue increasing by 4.8% to 247.8 billion yuan, and a comparable growth of 15% after excluding asset off-balance sheet impacts, driven by strong performance in Chinese e-commerce [1] - Adjusted EBITA fell by 77.6% year-on-year to 9.1 billion yuan, primarily due to increased investments in Taobao Flash Sales, although it exceeded expectations due to strong performance in cloud and international businesses [1] Revenue and Growth Trends - Cloud revenue accelerated with a year-on-year growth of 34% in 2QFY26, with internal and external customer revenues increasing by 29% and 51% respectively, driven by demand for large model training and AI feature iterations in products like Amap, DingTalk, and Quark [1] - Cloud computing EBITA reached 3.6 billion yuan, with a profit margin of 9%, and cash capital expenditure was 31.5 billion yuan, indicating potential for upward adjustments in capital expenditure due to strong internal and external demand [1] - The company expects cloud revenue to maintain over 30% year-on-year growth in the coming quarters as capital expenditure increases and AI applications continue to develop [1] E-commerce Performance - Taobao Flash Sales showed improvement with a stable market share, although it recorded an EBITA loss of 36.7 billion yuan in 2QFY26 due to significant investments in expanding order volume [2] - The company anticipates a reduction in losses for Flash Sales to 19 billion yuan in 3QFY26, attributed to order structure optimization, increased average transaction value, and improved fulfillment efficiency [2] - E-commerce customer management revenue (CMR) grew by 10% this quarter, but excluding Flash Sales, the EBITA for Chinese e-commerce grew in the single digits, with expectations of a 6% growth in CMR for 3QFY26 due to pressures on e-commerce GMV and CMR [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its revenue forecasts for FY26 and FY27, while raising the non-GAAP net profit estimates for FY26 and FY27 by 12% each, mainly due to better-than-expected reductions in food delivery losses, offset by increased losses in other businesses [2] - Using a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation, the company assigns a P/E of 14x for e-commerce and a P/S of 7x for cloud computing, maintaining target prices of 197 HKD for Hong Kong shares and 204 USD for US shares, indicating an upside potential of 25% and 27% respectively from current prices [2]

Core Insights - The AI industry is experiencing rapid changes, with major players like Google and Alibaba making significant advancements in AI models and chips, indicating a competitive landscape that is constantly evolving [1][2] - The emergence of new players like DeepSeek demonstrates that established companies are not guaranteed dominance, as the speed of technological iteration can disrupt traditional market leaders [1][2] - The shift from closed development to open collaboration in AI research is fostering a more equitable competitive environment, allowing for faster innovation and shared technological advancements [2][3] Group 1 - Major companies are launching new AI models and chips, with Google nearing a market valuation of $4 trillion and Alibaba aggressively entering the AI to C market [1] - The rapid pace of AI development is creating opportunities for new entrants, as seen with DeepSeek's rise, which challenges established players like Nvidia and ChatGPT [1][2] - The diverse needs across industries, such as banking and healthcare, highlight the importance of specialized solutions over general models, allowing smaller teams to excel in niche markets [2] Group 2 - The competitive landscape is shifting towards a focus on technological advantages and execution efficiency, rather than traditional strengths like user base and funding [3] - The AI sector is characterized by a lack of permanent leaders, with new companies emerging as potential frontrunners based on their ability to adapt and innovate [3] - Investors are becoming more discerning, emphasizing the need for practical applications and scenario breakthroughs, which is leading to a more rational valuation system in the AI market [2]

Core Viewpoint - The AI industry is experiencing rapid changes, with no permanent leaders, as new players emerge and established companies face challenges from innovative technologies and competitors [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The AI landscape is characterized by intense competition, with major players like Google and Alibaba launching new models and technologies to capture market share [1][2]. - The emergence of new AI models, such as DeepSeek, demonstrates that established companies can be disrupted by innovative newcomers, highlighting the unpredictable nature of AI advancements [1][2]. - The decreasing cost of computing power and the availability of open-source code have leveled the playing field, allowing global participants to compete more equally [2]. Group 2: Technological Evolution - The rapid pace of technological iteration in AI means that traditional advantages, such as user base and financial strength, are becoming less reliable [3]. - Companies are shifting from closed development to open collaboration, which fosters a shared technological foundation and accelerates innovation across the industry [2]. - The diverse needs of various sectors, such as banking and healthcare, create opportunities for specialized teams to excel in niche markets, despite the heavy investments made by larger firms in general models [2]. Group 3: Investment Landscape - Investors are becoming more discerning, focusing on practical applications and scenario breakthroughs rather than just concepts, which encourages a more rational valuation system [2]. - The evolving investor attitude supports fair competition, allowing promising projects to receive necessary backing despite the competitive landscape [2].

Core Insights - The AI industry is experiencing rapid changes, with major players like Google and Alibaba launching new models and technologies to compete in the market [1][2] - The emergence of new competitors, such as DeepSeek, demonstrates that established companies are not guaranteed dominance in the AI space [1][3] - The fast-paced technological advancements in AI are reshaping user expectations and competitive dynamics, making traditional advantages less relevant [3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Google is pushing its market value close to $4 trillion with the introduction of its Gemini 3 pro model and self-developed TPU chips [1] - Alibaba is aggressively entering the AI to C market with multiple initiatives, while Baidu is establishing new model development departments [1] - The AI landscape is characterized by rapid iterations and unexpected shifts, as seen with the rise of DeepSeek and the challenges faced by established players like Nvidia [2] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The AI sector allows for a level playing field, with decreasing computing costs and abundant open-source resources enabling new entrants [2] - Companies are facing diverse demands across industries, leading to a situation where specialized teams can outperform larger firms in niche areas [2] - The shift from closed development to open collaboration is changing the competitive landscape, allowing for faster innovation and shared technological advancements [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The rapid pace of technological change means that traditional advantages such as user base and financial strength are becoming less secure [3] - Future competition will hinge on technological prowess and execution efficiency, with teams that can effectively integrate resources and optimize products having a better chance of success [3] - The AI industry is marked by a lack of permanent leaders, with new entrants continuously emerging to challenge established players [3]

Core Insights - The AI industry is experiencing rapid changes, with major players like Google and Alibaba making significant advancements in AI models and chips, indicating a competitive landscape that is constantly evolving [1][2] - The emergence of new players like DeepSeek demonstrates that established companies are not guaranteed dominance, as the speed of technological iteration can disrupt traditional market leaders [1][3] Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The AI sector is characterized by a unique trait of rapid technological advancement, allowing for opportunities for disruption at every stage from theory to implementation [2] - The decreasing cost of computing power and the availability of open-source code have leveled the playing field for global participants in the AI industry [2] - Competition can sometimes be misaligned, as seen with Nvidia's market fluctuations due to challenges from new algorithms like those from DeepSeek, which undermine Nvidia's hardware advantages [2] Group 2: Market Trends - The diverse needs across industries, such as banking, healthcare, and manufacturing, create a demand for specialized AI solutions, allowing smaller, knowledgeable teams to thrive despite the investments of larger companies in general models [2] - The shift from closed development to open collaboration in AI research is changing the competitive landscape, enabling faster innovation and shared technological advancements [2] - Investors are becoming more discerning, focusing on practical applications and scenario breakthroughs rather than just concepts, which is leading to a more rational valuation system in the AI market [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The rapid pace of technological change is outpacing traditional advantages like user base and financial strength, suggesting that the leading companies in AI will frequently change [3] - Future competition will hinge on technological superiority and execution efficiency, with teams that can effectively integrate resources and optimize products having a better chance of success [3] - The AI landscape is dynamic, with no permanent leaders, only emerging new players [3]

Core Insights - Alibaba's determination to invest heavily in core areas remains unshaken despite short-term performance fluctuations and a downgrade in profitability [1][5] Financial Performance - For Q2 of FY2026, Alibaba reported a significant decline in operating profit, down 85% year-on-year to 5.365 billion RMB, and adjusted EBITA decreased by 78% to 9.073 billion RMB [1] - The company's net cash flow from operating activities was 10.099 billion RMB, a 68% decrease compared to 31.438 billion RMB in the same period of 2024 [3][4] - Free cash flow turned negative at 21.84 billion RMB, contrasting with a positive inflow of 13.735 billion RMB in the same quarter of 2024, primarily due to increased investments in instant retail and cloud infrastructure [3][4] Investment Strategy - Alibaba's capital expenditure for the quarter was 31.5 billion RMB, with approximately 120 billion RMB allocated to AI and cloud infrastructure over the past four quarters [3][4] - The company previously announced a plan to invest 380 billion RMB in AI and related cloud computing sectors over the next three years, with indications that this amount may be insufficient [2][7][8] AI and Cloud Growth - Alibaba Cloud achieved a record revenue growth of 34% year-on-year, reaching 39.824 billion RMB, with AI-related product revenues showing triple-digit growth for nine consecutive quarters [6] - CEO Wu Yongming highlighted strong demand for Alibaba Cloud's AI servers, noting that the current supply is lagging behind customer orders, suggesting a potential increase in future investments [1][8] Product Development and Market Positioning - Alibaba is focusing on the consumer market for AI development, launching a personal AI assistant named "Qianwen" and a general AI assistant "Lingguang" from Ant Group [9][10] - The company aims to create a seamless ecosystem where Qianwen can integrate various services, such as ticket booking and restaurant reviews, enhancing user experience [18][24]

Core Insights - Ant Group's Lingguang AI application achieved over 1 million downloads in just 4 days, surpassing the record set by Sora2 and demonstrating the rapid growth of Chinese AI applications on a global scale [1][9] - Lingguang's unique features, such as "Lingguang Flash Applications," allow users to create applications with natural language prompts, significantly lowering the barrier for non-programmers to engage with AI technology [5][8] Group 1: Performance and Popularity - Lingguang reached 1 million downloads in 4 days and 2 million downloads in 6 days, outperforming major global AI applications like ChatGPT and DeepSeek [1][9] - The application topped the App Store's free tools category in China and ranked sixth overall, marking a significant shift in the competitive landscape previously dominated by ByteDance [5][9] Group 2: Features and User Engagement - Lingguang allows users to create applications through simple text prompts, enabling functionalities like homework assistance and meal planning without any coding knowledge [6][8] - The application has sparked a wave of user-generated content, with individuals sharing their custom applications on social media, indicating a growing trend of "DIY applications" among the general public [7][8] Group 3: Market Impact and Future Directions - The rapid success of Lingguang reflects a broader shift in the AI application market, with Ant Group positioning itself as a strong competitor alongside Alibaba's other AI initiatives [9] - Ant Group's CTO emphasized the commitment to enhancing user experience and meeting personalized needs, indicating ongoing development and innovation in the AI space [9]

Core Insights - Alibaba has positioned itself as a leader in AI through a dual strategy of "technology leadership" and "ecosystem implementation" [1][4] - The company is making a bold strategic bet by going "All in AI," marking a significant shift in its business focus [4] Technology Development - Alibaba's long-term investment in core technology development is highlighted, including the establishment of its first AI lab in 2016 and the creation of the world-class research institution, DAMO Academy [4] - The company has developed its foundational models and self-researched chips, laying a solid technical foundation for its emergence in the current large model wave [4] - Alibaba's Qianwen team has consistently released powerful models, such as Qianwen 2.5 and the more advanced Qianwen 3, maintaining a leading position in the rapidly evolving AI landscape [4] Ecosystem Implementation - Alibaba's strategy effectively transforms top-tier technology into real-world impact through open-source and cloud services, contrasting with the closed-source model prevalent in the U.S. [5] - The open-source approach has attracted 16 million global developers to Alibaba's "ModelScope" community, creating a large and active AI ecosystem [5] - Successful applications driven by Alibaba's AI technology include the Quark smart assistant, which has nearly 150 million monthly active users and has achieved over 10 million downloads within a week of its public testing [5] Commercial Value - Alibaba Cloud's AI-related projects have shown three-digit growth for eight consecutive quarters, indicating that its AI strategy is entering a harvest phase [5] Global Partnerships - Major global companies, such as BMW, are integrating Alibaba's Qianwen model into their next-generation smart vehicles, demonstrating trust in Alibaba as a comprehensive AI partner with strong technical foundations and extensive cloud infrastructure [6] - Potential collaborations with companies like Apple further validate Alibaba's dual-driven strategy in the global AI landscape [6] - Alibaba is playing a crucial role in China's ambitious plan to dominate the AI race by 2030, supported by its robust technology and ecosystem [6]