Core Viewpoint - Alibaba is expected to report a revenue increase of 4% year-on-year for Q2 FY26, with adjusted EBITA margin at 3.5% [2][3] Group 1: Financial Performance - For Q2 FY26, Alibaba is projected to achieve revenue of 245.6 billion yuan, representing a 4% year-on-year growth, with international digital commerce and cloud intelligence revenues increasing by 17% and 30% respectively [2][4] - The adjusted EBITA for Q2 FY26 is anticipated to be 8.5 billion yuan, down 79% year-on-year, with an adjusted EBITA margin of 3.5%, reflecting a decline of 13.6 percentage points [2][4] Group 2: Business Segments - The cloud segment is expected to continue accelerating, with revenue growth of 30% year-on-year for Q2 FY26, while maintaining stable EBITA margins [2] - The Chinese e-commerce group is forecasted to see a 5% year-on-year increase in GMV for Q2 FY26, with a take rate showing year-on-year improvement, although seasonal factors may impact revenue [2][3] - Instant retail is projected to incur an adjusted EBITA loss of 36.5 billion yuan for Q2 FY26, with expectations of a turnaround starting in Q3 FY26 [2] Group 3: Investment and Future Outlook - The company has slightly adjusted its revenue forecasts for FY2026 to FY2028, with expected revenues of 1,050.3 billion yuan, 1,187.9 billion yuan, and 1,305.0 billion yuan respectively, reflecting minor downward adjustments [3] - The adjusted net profit forecasts for FY2026 to FY2028 have been revised to 108.4 billion yuan, 150.2 billion yuan, and 177.2 billion yuan, primarily due to higher-than-expected investments in flash purchase and AI-related applications [3]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts Alibaba's revenue for the quarter ending September will grow by 5% year-on-year, while adjusted profit is expected to decline by 70% to 11 billion RMB [1] Financial Performance - Revenue is forecasted to increase by 5% year-on-year [1] - Adjusted profit is anticipated to drop by 70% to 11 billion RMB [1] - Cloud business revenue growth is expected to accelerate to 30% year-on-year [1] - Customer management revenue growth is projected to remain above 10% year-on-year [1] Investment Insights - The decline in adjusted profit may be driven by aggressive investments in AI and instant retail, which are expected to solidify long-term growth prospects [1] - Alibaba's H-shares target price is adjusted from 240 HKD to 235 HKD, and the US stock target price is revised from 245 USD to 240 USD, maintaining an "overweight" rating [1] Loss Projections - Significant investments in various business segments, including Tongyi Qianwen model, DingTalk, Quark, and Amap, are expected to lead to increased losses outside of e-commerce, cloud, and international business [1] - Anticipated losses for the quarter ending September are projected to reach 5 billion RMB, widening from a loss of 1.4 billion RMB in the previous quarter [1] - Losses in the instant retail segment are expected to expand to 35 billion RMB for the upcoming quarter [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts Alibaba's revenue for the quarter ending September will grow by 5% year-on-year, while adjusted profit is expected to decline by 70% to 11 billion RMB [1] Financial Performance - Adjusted profit is forecasted to drop significantly due to investments in AI and instant retail, leading to a loss of 5 billion RMB for the quarter, compared to a loss of 1.4 billion RMB in the previous quarter [1] - Cloud business revenue is expected to accelerate with a year-on-year growth of 30%, while customer management revenue is projected to maintain a growth rate of over 10% [1] Investment Outlook - The report indicates that investments in various business models, including Tongyi Qianwen, DingTalk, Quark, and Amap, will contribute to increased losses in e-commerce, cloud, and international business outside of core operations [1] - The target price for Alibaba's H-shares has been adjusted from 240 HKD to 235 HKD, and the target price for US shares has been revised from 245 USD to 240 USD, while maintaining an "Overweight" rating [1] Loss Projections - The forecast for instant retail indicates that losses will expand to 35 billion RMB for the quarter [1] - It is anticipated that losses in other business segments will remain at similar levels in the coming quarters, with gradual improvement expected as AI monetization accelerates over the next 2 to 3 years [1]

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba-W (09988) is experiencing a decline of over 3% in stock price ahead of its upcoming quarterly earnings report, with expectations of mixed financial performance [1] Financial Performance - The company is projected to report a 5% year-on-year revenue growth for the quarter ending September, with adjusted profits expected to drop by 70% to 11 billion RMB [1] - Cloud business revenue is anticipated to accelerate with a year-on-year growth rate of 30%, while customer management revenue is expected to maintain a growth rate of over 10% [1] Investment Impact - The adjusted profit decline is attributed to significant investments in AI and instant retail, which are expected to negatively impact short-term profitability but strengthen long-term growth prospects [1] - The company is predicted to incur a loss of 5 billion RMB for the quarter, a significant increase from a loss of 1.4 billion RMB in the previous quarter, with losses in other business segments expected to remain at similar levels in the coming quarters [1] Specific Business Losses - The forecast for instant retail indicates an expected loss of 35 billion RMB for the upcoming quarter [1]

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba-W (09988) is experiencing a decline in stock price, dropping over 3% ahead of its upcoming quarterly earnings report, with a current price of 167.3 HKD and a trading volume of 12.741 billion HKD [1] Financial Performance Summary - The upcoming earnings report is expected to show a 5% year-on-year revenue growth, while adjusted profit is projected to decline by 70% to 11 billion RMB [1] - Cloud business revenue is anticipated to accelerate with a year-on-year growth rate of 30%, and customer management revenue is expected to maintain a growth rate of over 10% [1] Investment and Loss Projections - The adjusted profit decline is attributed to significant investments in AI and instant retail, which are expected to lead to a larger-than-expected drop in profits [1] - The company is projected to incur a loss of 5 billion RMB in the upcoming quarter, a significant increase from a loss of 1.4 billion RMB in the previous quarter, with losses in other business segments expected to remain at similar levels in the coming quarters [1] - For instant retail, losses are forecasted to expand to 35 billion RMB in the next quarter [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba-W (09988.HK) is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][6][20] Core Views - The report anticipates a 4% year-on-year revenue growth for 2QFY26, with adjusted EBITA margin at 3.5%. Revenue is expected to reach 245.6 billion yuan, driven by a 17% increase in international digital commerce and a 30% increase in cloud intelligence revenue, while the Chinese e-commerce group is projected to decline by 13% quarter-on-quarter [3][5][20] - The cloud segment is expected to continue accelerating growth with a 30% year-on-year revenue increase, while maintaining stable EBITA margins. The company is actively advancing its AI infrastructure with a planned investment of 380 billion yuan [3][11][20] - The Chinese e-commerce group is projected to achieve a GMV growth of 5% year-on-year, with a take rate increase. However, the report notes that the profit margin is expected to continue declining due to competitive pressures [3][18][20] Summary by Sections Financial Forecasts - Revenue for FY2026 is adjusted to 1,050.3 billion yuan, with a slight decrease of 1.5%. The adjusted net profit forecast for FY2026 is revised to 108.4 billion yuan, reflecting a 14% decrease due to higher-than-expected investments in flash sales and AI-related costs [4][20][23] Cloud Intelligence Group - The cloud segment is projected to achieve a revenue growth of 30% year-on-year in FY26Q2, with stable EBITA margins. The company has launched several AI models and upgraded its AI infrastructure significantly [11][12][13] Chinese E-commerce Group - The report estimates a 5% year-on-year GMV growth for FY26Q2, with a focus on maintaining market share despite competitive pressures. The adjusted EBITA loss for instant retail is expected to be 36.5 billion yuan, with a peak in losses observed in August [18][19][20] Other Segments - The AIDC segment is expected to see a slowdown in revenue growth, maintaining a near breakeven performance. Other segments are projected to incur losses of around 5 billion yuan due to increased AI application costs and investments in delivery services [19][20]

Core Insights - The article discusses the emergence of Sora2 as a significant player in the AI application landscape, marking a shift from productivity tools to entertainment consumption [2][3][5] - Sora2 is compared to TikTok, but it is fundamentally different as it generates content internally without allowing external uploads, creating a unique virtual content environment [3][5] - The growth potential of Sora2 is highlighted, with the possibility of it becoming a major player in the AI application market, potentially surpassing ChatGPT in user scale [5][8] Application Rankings - The AI Product List for September 2025 ranks ChatGPT as the top application with 758.63 million monthly active users (MAU), followed by Quark and Doubao with 151.04 million and 150 million MAU respectively [9][10] - The domestic ranking shows Quark, Doubao, and Baidu Netdisk leading the list, with Quark experiencing a slight decline of 2.21% in MAU [12][21] - The global growth ranking highlights Jiemeng AI as the fastest-growing application with a 31.98% increase in MAU, reaching 42.89 million [17][22] Market Trends - The article notes a significant trend towards AI applications that focus on content consumption rather than just production, indicating a shift in user engagement strategies [3][5] - Sora2's approach to lowering barriers for content creation is expected to expand its user base significantly, potentially increasing user engagement tenfold [3][5] - The overall AI application market is seeing a rise in user engagement, with ChatGPT leading the global rankings and various other applications showing substantial growth [8][19]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the latest AI product rankings, highlighting the emergence of Sora2 as a significant player in the entertainment consumption sector, marking a shift from productivity tools to entertainment-focused applications [6][12]. Global Rankings - The global total MAU (Monthly Active Users) for the top AI applications in September 2025 includes ChatGPT at 758.63 million, Quark at 151.04 million, and Doubao at 150 million, with a notable presence of domestic applications [18][19]. - ChatGPT leads the global rankings, showing a 4.24% increase in MAU, while Quark and Baidu Netdisk experienced declines of 2.21% and 3.60%, respectively [18][19]. Domestic Rankings - In the domestic rankings, Quark, Doubao, and Baidu Netdisk occupy the top three positions, with MAUs of 151.04 million, 150 million, and 148.03 million, respectively [23][24]. - The application "即梦AI" (Dream AI) has shown remarkable growth, ranking first in the domestic growth chart with a 31.98% increase, reaching 42.89 million MAU [14][24]. Growth and Decline - The article notes that Sora2 has significantly lowered the barrier for content creation, potentially increasing user engagement and scaling [9][10]. - The global growth rankings highlight "Al Picasso" and "Chat Al" with increases of 245.31% and 191.88%, respectively, indicating a trend of new applications gaining traction [29][30]. Subscription Revenue - ChatGPT leads the subscription revenue rankings with an annualized revenue of $183.28 million, followed by Suno and Claude with $26.06 million and $24.36 million, respectively [40][41]. - The subscription revenue for AI applications reflects a growing market, with several applications showing positive growth trends [40][41]. Emerging Trends - Sora2 is positioned as a revolutionary product in the AI entertainment space, with the potential to redefine user experiences and engagement in virtual content creation [12][15]. - The article suggests that the AI landscape is evolving, with applications like Sora2 and Dream AI paving the way for future giants in the industry [13][15].

10月9日，NBA中国和阿里云宣布达成多年合作，阿里云将正式成为NBA中国官方云计算与人工智能合作伙伴，基于通义千问大 模型和云计算基础设施，为中国NBA球迷提供全新的观赛和互动体验。 NBA中国将利用阿里云的人工智能和云计算服务，支持一系列数字球迷互动计划。双方将基于阿里巴巴通义千问大模型，开发一 个专属AI模型。这一模型将根据NBA丰富的数字资产进行微调，为中国的NBA App用户提供引人入胜的互动内容，包括实时比赛集 锦、篮球历史数据、球员深度分析以及围绕篮球热点话题的互动讨论。 同时，NBA中国还将采用阿里云的基础设施，以承载其包括NBA App、NBA中国官网和NBA中国小程序在内的数字平台。NBA中 国将利用阿里云的智能分析工具生成数据洞察，加强球迷互动。 今年的NBA中国赛上，还将率先展示多项由阿里云为NBA中国引入的前沿AI技术，为球迷带来前所未有的感官冲击和个性化体 验。阿里云将首次展示其360度实时回放技术，为球迷提供关键比赛时刻的增强版回放。该系统运用阿里的AI算法，能精准捕捉球员动 作，并以360度环绕视角生成高质量的回放画面，让关键回合的呈现更加突出。 球迷还可通过NBA线上渠道和线 ...

Core Points - NBA China and Alibaba Cloud have announced a long-term partnership, with Alibaba Cloud becoming the official cloud computing and AI partner for NBA China, aimed at enhancing the viewing and interactive experience for Chinese NBA fans [2][5] - The collaboration will leverage Alibaba Cloud's AI and cloud computing services to support various digital fan engagement initiatives, including the development of a dedicated AI model based on the Tongyi Qianwen model [2][3] - The partnership was announced ahead of the 2025 NBA China Games, featuring the Brooklyn Nets and Phoenix Suns, scheduled for October 10 and 12 in Macau [2] Group 1 - Alibaba Cloud will introduce advanced AI technologies during the NBA China Games, including 360-degree real-time replay technology to provide enhanced highlights of key moments [3] - NBA China will utilize Alibaba Cloud's infrastructure to support its digital platforms, including the NBA App and official website, while employing smart analytics tools for data insights [3][4] Group 2 - Fans will have the opportunity to engage with various interactive features powered by the Tongyi Qianwen model, such as creating personalized NBA-themed avatars and generating commentary clips using their own voices [4] - Alibaba Cloud's AI technology has previously been utilized in sports events, such as the "Bullet Time" multi-angle replay system during the Paris Olympics, showcasing its capability to enhance viewer experience [4] Group 3 - The partnership reflects NBA's commitment to using the latest technology to creatively engage with millions of Chinese fans, with expectations to transform the way they watch and experience games in the coming years [5]