作者Daniel Jones ，内容为转载编译，仅为呈现不同市场观点与研究视角，并不意味着本公 众号对文中观点结论认可。 分析师对这家公司的负面看法，与管理层或整体野心无关，坦白说，分析师对它很多运营层面 的做法其实是认可的。分析师坚定看好电动汽车市场，也尤其喜爱它的 能源生产与储能业务 。分析师对特斯拉的核心顾虑，真正集中在两点： 较小的问题在于，埃隆・马斯克的一系列决策给公司带来了诸多负面影响与包袱； 更大的问 题，则是估值 。 长期以来分析师一直认为，这家公司股价被 严重高估 。事实上，早在 2024年 12 月 分析师 就断言，特斯拉股东在2025年将会过得非常糟糕。期间，特斯拉一度暴跌约 40%。说实话， 分析师当时认为它还会继续跌。但马斯克的 "炒作" 最终还是成功煽动了投资者情绪，把价格 重新推高。需要明确的是，特斯拉 表现依旧大幅跑输市场 ： 【如需和我们交流可扫码添加进社群】 · 自 2024 年 12 月左右至今，特斯拉股价基本 零涨幅 ，而标普 500 同期上涨 16.6%； · 自分析师今年 1 月左右以来，特斯拉下跌 6%，远差于标普 500 仅 0.9% 的跌幅。 这些都还远不及分 ...

Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) will take into account whether a vehicle is running the company's Full Self-Driving (FSD) service to estimate its trade-in value on all Model S and X vehicles, as well as the Cyberbeast trim of the Cybertruck, with the Luxe Package being the main criterion for the offer.FSD To Be Taken Into AccountThe automaker, on Saturday, released updated FSD transfer terms and conditions, which also contain an FAQ section that addresses various FSD-related questions. The company, in one of the l ...

从销量数据来看，特斯拉2025年全年交付电动车163.6万辆，同比下降8.6%；生产165.5万辆，同比下降 6.7%。其中，Model 3和Model Y仍是主力车型，全年交付158.5万辆，占总销量的96.9%；而 Cybertruck、Model S和Model X等"其他车型"仅交付5.1万辆。不过，特斯拉的储能业务成为亮点，2025 年全年部署46.7吉瓦时，同比增长48.7%；第四季度部署量达14.2吉瓦时，创历史新高。 【CNMO科技消息】近日，特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克在社交平台回应网友时表示，特斯拉市值未 来有朝一日可能达到100万亿美元，但这一目标需要"极其巨大的努力和十足的运气"。他强调，这一数 字并非完全不可能实现。目前，特斯拉市值约为1.54万亿美元，若要达到马斯克提及的目标，需增长超 65倍。 根据2026年2月9日的实时数据，特斯拉股价报411.11美元，较前一日上涨3.5%。尽管近期市值有所波 动，例如2月4日因股价下跌3.78%导致市值蒸发598.4亿美元，但市场对特斯拉的长期潜力仍保持关注。 值得注意的是，特斯拉市值远超传统汽车制造商，甚至高于以纯电车型销量领先的比亚迪， ...

行 业 研 究 1 月重卡批发销量约 10 万辆，蔚来 2026Q4 经营利润 2026 年 02 月 08 日 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 汽车 沪深300 汽车研究团队 邓健全（首席分析师） 证书编号：S0790525090003 赵悦媛（联席首席分析师） 证书编号：S0790525100003 赵旭杨（分析师） 证书编号：S0790523090002 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 傅昌鑫（分析师） 证书编号：S0790525090005 徐剑峰（分析师） 证书编号：S0790525090004 王镇涛（研究员） 证书编号：S0790124070021 相关研究报告 《FSD 付费用户渗透率超 12%，2025 全球人形机器人出货量同比增长 5 倍 —行业周报》-2026.2.1 《小鹏汽车全球累计布局超 60 国家， 宇树 2025 年人形机器人出货量超 5500 台—行业周报》-2026.1.25 《2025 年中国重卡销量达 114.5 万， 加拿大将中国电动汽车配额内关税降 至 6.1%—行业周报》-202 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese automotive market, historically dominated by local brands, is witnessing a significant shift as foreign electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers are beginning to penetrate this previously closed market, driven by the slow electrification of domestic brands and changing consumer preferences [4][5][6]. Group 1: Market Overview - Japan's automotive market has long been considered one of the most challenging for foreign brands, with local manufacturers holding over 90% market share [4]. - In 2025, Japan's total new car sales are projected to reach 4.5658 million units, with a 3.3% year-on-year increase, while foreign brands are starting to gain traction [5]. - The electric vehicle market in Japan is still in its infancy, with only 60,677 EVs sold in 2025, representing a mere 1.6% of total vehicle sales [5]. Group 2: Foreign Brands' Entry - The Japanese Imported Automobile Association reported a 7% increase in non-local brand vehicle sales in 2025, totaling 243,129 units, with pure electric imports surging by 26% to a record 30,513 units [6]. - Hyundai is making a comeback in Japan, with a 89% increase in sales in 2025, reaching 1,169 units, driven by the introduction of several electric models [8][10]. - Tesla's sales in Japan saw a remarkable 90% increase in 2025, reaching approximately 10,600 units, attributed to a shift in sales strategy towards physical stores [12][14]. Group 3: Chinese Brands' Expansion - BYD entered the Japanese market in 2023 and aims to establish 100 dedicated stores by 2025, achieving a 62% sales increase to 3,870 units in 2025 [15][18]. - Other Chinese brands, such as Zeekr and GAC, are also planning to enter the Japanese market, with unique offerings tailored to local consumer preferences [19][21]. Group 4: Domestic Brands' Response - Japanese automakers are not standing still; Toyota's new EV model bZ4X received over 10,000 orders within three months of its launch in late 2025, becoming the top-selling EV in Japan [24][27]. - Nissan and Honda are also launching new EV models to compete with foreign brands, with Nissan's new LEAF and Honda's N-ONE e: entering the market [27][28].

Core Viewpoint - Tesla is shifting its focus from traditional automotive production to new ventures, specifically humanoid robots and AI, leading to the discontinuation of the Model S and Model X [2][4]. Group 1: Company Strategy - Tesla will end production of the Model S and Model X in Q2, reallocating resources to produce the Optimus robot, as stated by CEO Elon Musk [4]. - The decision reflects Tesla's ambition to transition towards autonomy and advanced technologies beyond electric vehicles [4][10]. Group 2: Market Response - Investors may have anticipated this move, as Tesla had already ceased new orders for the Model S and X in China due to high tariffs and low demand in Europe [6]. - In 2025, combined deliveries of the Model S, Model X, and Cybertruck accounted for only 50,850 units, representing just over 3% of Tesla's total 1.6 million deliveries [8]. Group 3: Financial Overview - Tesla's current market capitalization stands at $1.4 trillion, with a gross margin of 18.03% [9]. - The stock price has seen fluctuations, with a recent change of +3.47%, indicating investor interest amidst strategic shifts [9]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Tesla's future is characterized by uncertainty as it aims to produce a million Optimus robots annually, marking a significant pivot in its business model [10]. - Investors are encouraged to reassess their positions in Tesla, considering the company's evolving identity beyond just an electric vehicle manufacturer [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The company's $20 billion investment in 2026 signifies a shift in the investment narrative, moving away from traditional car company valuations to a broader vision of transportation as a service [1][2]. Investment Strategy - Tesla is committing $20 billion to build six new factories, which supports CEO Elon Musk's vision for the future of electric vehicles (EVs) and transportation [3][4]. - The investment includes a lithium refinery and a lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery factory, aimed at producing cost-effective batteries for future models like the Cybercab [4]. Market Position and Valuation - Tesla's current market cap stands at $1.4 trillion, with a trading valuation exceeding 200 times Wall Street's earnings estimates for 2026 [4]. - The company is transitioning from being viewed solely as a car manufacturer to being perceived as a transportation-as-a-service provider, with a focus on autonomous driving [4]. Risks and Challenges - The company faces significant cash burn due to the $20 billion investment, with estimates suggesting a $6.2 billion cash outflow for 2026 [7]. - Regulatory approvals for unsupervised robotaxis and the Cybercab are still pending, which adds uncertainty to Tesla's future plans [6][10]. Future Outlook - Tesla's CFO stated that the company has $44 billion in cash and investments to support its spending, but there are risks associated with premature investments in projects like Cybercab and Optimus [8]. - The stock may appeal to investors who believe in Musk's vision for the future of transportation, despite the high-risk nature of the investment [11].

今天特斯拉官宣了春节重磅 OTA 更新，本次更新的系统版本号为 2025.45.32.1，适用车型为： 目前该版本已经开始分批次推送了，已经有不少特斯拉车主收到了 2025.45.32.1 的软件更新。 ■ Model 3 ■ Model Y/YL ■ Model S ■ Model X 从更新日志来看，这次的 2025.45.32.1 是一个重大版本更新，带来了非常丰富的更新内容。 更新日志看起来非常丰富，精简版如下： ■ 地图包更新； 当然需要注意的是，部分功能实现时间和效果可能根据车型和车辆配置存在差异，大家以实际收到的推送更新内容为准。 ■ 支持通过「嘿，特斯拉」语音唤醒； ■ 新增「自动化」应用程序； ■ 新增「酷狗音乐」应用； ■ 行车记录仪支持动态调整录制时长； ■ QQ 音乐支持伴唱模式； ■ 全面升级歌词样式并优化动画效果； ■ 网易云音乐支持曲目新增「逐字歌词」； ■ 超级充电桩支持聚合显示； ■ 新增玩具箱喷漆车间，可定制车辆外观； ■ 支持微信互联，可将微信地址发到特斯拉； ■ 可搜索兴趣点附近的停车场； 另外，前段时间马斯克表示将会在下个季度停产 Model S 和 Model X ...

特斯拉 V3 即将落地，有望成为明星产品， 行业发展加速 ——机器人产业跟踪 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 近期我们看到特斯拉持续预热第三代机器人，我们认为产业发展有望迎来提速，行业的 景气度也将随之提升。向前看，我们预计行业将进入产能扩建，而在扩产过程中，我们 认为供应商的制造和管理优势非常重要，因此制造和经营能力领先的企业更具投资机 会。相关标的：拓普集团(601689，买入)、三花智控(002050，买入)、五洲新春 (603667，买入)、恒立液压(601100，未评级)、震裕科技(300953，买入)。 风险提示 厂商生产不及预期、场景需求落地不明确导致低于预期、国家政策变化导致行业发展放 缓、行业融资不及预期、模型发展和数据采集慢于预期、订单执行效果低于预期、产品 降价风险。 机械设备行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 国家/地区 中国 行业 机械设备行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 02 月 06 日 看好（维持） 杨震 执业证书编号：S0860520060002 香港证监会牌照：BSW113 yangzhen@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 | 顺应人形机器人拟人化趋势， ...

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's financial performance in 2025 shows a significant decline in both revenue and profit, with a focus on the company's future capital expenditures and new business ventures as potential growth drivers [4][6][18]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, Tesla's revenue decreased by 3.1% year-on-year, totaling $948.27 billion for the year, a decline of 2.9%. The net profit attributable to shareholders fell over 60% in Q4, with an annual profit of $3.794 billion, down 46.5% [6]. - Tesla's current price-to-earnings ratio exceeds 400, indicating a high valuation despite the profit drop. The stock price fell 3.45% on the first trading day post-earnings but recovered the next day [6][7]. Impact of Bitcoin - In Q4 2025, Tesla's net profit was $840 million, down $1.477 billion, significantly impacted by Bitcoin price fluctuations. The company held 11,509 Bitcoins, with a fair value drop from approximately $1.315 billion to $1.074 billion, leading to a $240 million loss in fair value adjustments [9]. - For the entire year, Tesla's net profit of $3.794 billion was affected by a $670 million loss from Bitcoin price declines, contrasting with a $600 million gain in 2024 [9][10]. Non-GAAP Profit Analysis - Excluding Bitcoin price changes, Tesla's Non-GAAP net profit for 2025 was $5.858 billion, down about 30% year-on-year, primarily due to the "Inflation Reduction Act" affecting regulatory credit sales and a significant increase in R&D expenses [10][11]. - The decline in regulatory credit sales from $2.763 billion to $1.993 billion negatively impacted profits by approximately $800 million, while R&D expenses rose over 40%, increasing the R&D expense ratio from 4.6% to 6.8% [10]. Automotive Business Performance - Tesla's global vehicle deliveries in 2025 totaled 1.6361 million, a decline of 8.6%. The automotive sales revenue was $658.21 billion, down 9.19% year-on-year, driven by an increase in lower-priced vehicle sales and promotional discounts [13][14]. - The U.S. market saw a significant drop in sales due to the "Inflation Reduction Act," while the Chinese market remained relatively stable with a 4.8% decline in retail sales [15][16]. Capital Expenditure Plans - Tesla plans to exceed $20 billion in capital expenditures for 2026, which is 2.3 times the $8.53 billion spent in 2025 and 1.35 times the net cash flow from operating activities of $14.75 billion [18]. - This expenditure will primarily support AI projects and the development of various production lines, including those for Robotaxi and humanoid robots [18][20]. Future Outlook - The aggressive capital spending raises concerns about future profitability, as it could lead to significant depreciation expenses impacting net profits [19]. - Tesla's focus on AI infrastructure and new business ventures like Robotaxi and humanoid robots is seen as essential for long-term growth, with cash flow management becoming a critical factor for stock price movements [24].