1 月行业价差改善或助力盈利景气回暖 证券研究报告 能源/基础材料 2026 年 2 月 09 日│中国内地 行业月报 华泰研究 受锂电储能增长预期、原油价格震荡上行、北半球供暖季等因素驱动，主要 提价产品为荷兰 TTF、丁二烯、碳酸锂、对硝基氯苯等。而在前期供方挺价 回调、检修装置复产、下游高价接受度减弱等影响下，主要跌价产品为甲基 三氯硅烷、PLA、己二胺、烯草酮原药等。 1 月行业整体价差环比扩大，26 年有望迎景气回暖 26 年 1 月末 CCPI-原料价差为 2631，处于 2012 年以来 15%分位数，较 25 年末 2500 点环比扩大，受产油国地缘冲突影响，国际油价震荡上行，叠加 资源品涨价情绪外溢、春节前补库需求提振，多数化工品价差环比改善。1 月提价产品主要受锂电储能增长预期、油价上行支撑、北半球冬季寒潮影响 等因素驱动。我们认为近年来行业盈利已处底部，在反内卷等政策引导下， 供给侧有望加快调整，大宗化工品盈利或迎改善。中长期而言，伴随欧美高 能耗装置退出、亚非拉地区经济增长等需求增量驱动下，出海/出口成为国 内化工行业的重要增长引擎，供需修复下 26 年行业景气有望上行。 1 月 PM ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Suzhou Jufu Technology Co., Ltd. has completed a Pre-IPO financing round led by Fudan Science and Technology, with a pre-financing valuation of approximately 3 billion yuan. The funds will be used for global capacity and supply chain layout, product R&D, and expansion into new markets and applications [2][11]. Group 2 - Jufu Technology, established in 2012 and headquartered in Changshu, Jiangsu, focuses on the research and production of FDM/FFF 3D printing materials, accumulating technical and product advantages in this niche [3][6]. - The company’s brand Polymaker has developed a comprehensive product system covering consumer, professional, and production-grade 3D printing materials, including PLA, PETG, ABS/ASA, and nylon (PA), while also extending into high-performance and functional materials [4][11]. Group 3 - Jufu Technology has completed a total of eight financing rounds since its inception, with the latest round bringing it closer to an IPO, having filed for IPO guidance with the Jiangsu Securities Regulatory Bureau [7][11]. - The company has received significant support from leading investment institutions, with IDG Capital participating in its D and E financing rounds, each exceeding 100 million yuan [9][11]. Group 4 - The founding team of Jufu Technology has a strong "Fudan gene," with all four founders being graduates of Fudan University, which may have influenced Fudan Science and Technology's decision to lead the latest financing round [12][14]. - The company’s name, "Jufu Technology," reflects the intention to "gather the strength of Fudan people," enhancing collaboration and execution efficiency in technology and global expansion [14]. Group 5 - The 3D printing industry is entering a critical phase of accelerated development, with Jufu Technology positioned to become a leading player, potentially paving the way for other companies like Yijia Additive, Chuangxiang Sanwei, and Xianlin Sanwei to pursue IPOs by 2026 [16].

消费级3D打印：应用于C&小B端，FDM为主流技术路线 消费级3D打印机技术路线包括FDM、光固化：1)FDM：操作原理简单，耗材成本低且无污染，最适用 家庭场景，是主流技术路线，市场份额约77%。2)光固化：成本更高，且耗材缺陷较为明显，限制了其 应用场景的扩展。3)消费级3D打印机主要用于C端&小B端，与工业级相比，消费级更强调易用性。对 比FDM和光固化，FDM最贴合消费级对于易用性的要求，该行判断未来消费级3D打印技术仍将围绕 FDM路线演进。 全球消费级3D打印市场规模快速增长，国产设备占主要份额 华西证券（002926）发布研报称，随着AI技术赋能设备自动化与建模智能化，以及耗材国产替代加 速，消费级3D打印机产品不断升级，价格持续下降，有效激发了市场需求，行业生态建设正推动市场 进一步扩张，看好行业需求加速释放。 华西证券主要观点如下： 1)设备端：2020年以来，消费级3D打印机的市场熟知度快速提升，2020-2024年全球市场规模、出货量 CAGR达20%、10%，远期市场空间达千亿美元。国产厂商凭借产品创新，逐步主导全球市场(份额 90%+)，且全球竞争格局高度集中，CR5近80%，头部均 ...

Group 1: Company Overview - The company, Hefei Hengxin Life Technology Co., Ltd., is involved in the production of biodegradable materials and has established a dual-engine strategy for domestic and international operations [1][4]. Group 2: Policy and Market Trends - The implementation of China's plastic ban policy has evolved from "limited plastic" to "banned plastic," marking a significant shift in environmental governance [1][2]. - The domestic preference for biodegradable materials includes PLA, PHA, and PBAT, with PLA being the mainstream material in the market [2][3]. Group 3: Product Development and Certification - The company has achieved significant milestones in PHA product development, including obtaining the first DIN certification for industrial and home compostable PHA paper products [4]. - The new version of the EUBP certification scheme, effective January 2026, will tighten the definition and application of compostable plastics, impacting the biodegradable industry [2][3]. Group 4: Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue of approximately CNY 1.384 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.49%, and a net profit of about CNY 185 million, up 14.12% [4][5]. - Future revenue growth is expected to be driven by core technology in biodegradable materials, expanding customer base, gradual capacity release, and new product development [4].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **domestic consumption market** in China, focusing on the **"2035 Income Doubling Plan"** aimed at increasing per capita GDP to over $20,000 by enhancing new productivity and achieving common prosperity through sectors like the semiconductor industry and healthcare systems [5][1]. Key Points and Arguments - **Wealth Effect and Consumer Recovery**: The recovery of consumption in the coming year is heavily reliant on the wealth effect, particularly among high-net-worth individuals. However, the purchasing power of the general public is constrained by salary structures and leverage capabilities, necessitating government intervention [1][6]. - **Challenges in the Consumption Market**: The current consumption market faces challenges such as: - **Salary Structure**: Companies are cutting costs and laying off employees to improve profit margins, which hampers salary growth for the middle class [3]. - **Leverage Issues**: Wealth concentration among the affluent increases, while the middle class struggles with mortgage pressures and slow income growth, limiting their borrowing capacity for consumption [3][8]. - **High-End Consumption Recovery**: The high-end consumption market is gradually recovering, with notable performance in high-end hotels, luxury cruises, and the gaming industry, indicating a positive trend in high-end consumer spending [3][22]. Important Insights - **CPI and Transfer Payments**: In 2026, key factors to watch include CPI expectations, transfer payments, and the wealth effect, particularly in high-end consumption sectors like medical aesthetics, which may benefit from stock market performance [9][6]. - **Tax Policy Impact**: Shifting from value-added tax to consumption tax could encourage local governments to stimulate consumption, supporting long-term economic goals despite short-term pressures on consumers [10][11]. - **Global Trade and Domestic Demand**: The uncertain global trade environment has highlighted the importance of domestic demand as a strategy to ensure stable GDP growth, especially in light of poor export data and weakening overseas PMIs [12]. Sector-Specific Developments - **Pet Food Sector**: The pet food sector has shown strong performance, with a three-year compound growth rate reaching two times, although profit margins remain low. The sector is driven by significant marketing efforts on platforms like Douyin and Tmall [14]. - **Hotel Industry**: The chain hotel industry is moving towards a more favorable investment phase, with average prices rising due to the recovery of high-end consumption post-pandemic [15]. - **Duty-Free Industry**: The duty-free sector is expected to improve as foreign cosmetic brands show growth, indicating a recovery in high-end consumption [16]. - **Medical Aesthetics**: The medical aesthetics sector is experiencing a K-shaped recovery, with high-end consumers opting for premium services while lower-tier markets seek affordable options [21]. Future Investment Opportunities - **Timing for Investment**: The best time to invest in the consumption sector will be from the lunar new year until early March 2026, coinciding with high policy expectations and increased consumer spending during holiday periods [23]. - **Emerging Sectors**: Other sectors to watch include luxury cruises, sports events, elder care, and high-quality gaming, all of which show significant long-term growth potential [18][19]. Conclusion - The conference call highlights the complexities of the domestic consumption market in China, emphasizing the need for strategic government policies to address current challenges and stimulate recovery. The focus on high-end consumption and emerging sectors presents potential investment opportunities for the future.

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, Non-ferrous metals (general), Glass, Polycrystalline silicon, Lithium, Iron ore (far - month), JF, TF - Bearish: Industrial silicon, Palm oil, Rapeseed oil, Cotton, Crude oil, Fuel oil, Benzene, Styrene, TGB, PVC, Caustic soda, Container shipping (European line) - Neutral (Oscillating): Stock index, Treasury bonds, Copper, Aluminum oxide, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless steel, Tin, Rebar, Coke, Coking coal, Lime, JF, TF, Paper pulp, Logs, Natural rubber, BR rubber, PLA, Ethylene glycol, Short - fiber, LPG Core Views - The Politburo meeting released limited incremental information. Market attention may shift to the Central Economic Work Conference, and the stock index is expected to remain strong before it [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1]. - LME copper's rising price may fall back after the short - term positive sentiment fades. The fundamentals of domestic alumina are weak, and its price is under pressure [1]. - The fundamentals of zinc have improved, and attention should be paid to the Fed's December interest - rate meeting. The short - term nickel price may fluctuate with the macro situation, and the long - term supply is excessive [1]. - The stainless - steel futures may rebound in the short term, and the tin price may rise in the short term but with a risk of a pull - back. The long - term view on tin is bullish [1]. - Gold and silver prices are supported, and platinum and palladium prices are expected to be supported in the short term. A long - platinum and short - palladium arbitrage strategy can be continued [1]. - The prices of many industrial products such as steel, iron ore, and non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as production restrictions, demand, and supply, showing an oscillating trend [1]. - The prices of agricultural products are affected by factors such as production, inventory, and demand, and are in different situations such as having support but no drive, or facing supply pressure [1]. - The prices of energy and chemical products are affected by factors such as raw material costs, supply and demand, and macro policies, showing different trends of rise, fall, or oscillation [1]. Summary by Categories Macro - financial - Stock index: Expected to remain strong before the Central Economic Work Conference [1]. - Treasury bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1]. Non - ferrous metals - Copper: LME copper's rising price may fall back after the short - term positive sentiment fades [1]. - Aluminum oxide: Domestic production and inventory are increasing, the fundamentals are weak, and the price is under pressure [1]. - Zinc: Fundamentals have improved, pay attention to the Fed's December interest - rate meeting [1]. - Nickel: Short - term price may fluctuate with the macro situation, long - term supply is excessive [1]. - Stainless steel: Futures may rebound in the short term, pay attention to the actual production of steel mills [1]. - Tin: May rise in the short term but with a risk of a pull - back, long - term view is bullish [1]. Precious metals and new energy - Gold: Supported by factors such as the central bank's continuous increase in reserves and the high probability of the Fed's December interest rate cut [1]. - Silver: Supported by factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut and supply - demand imbalance, but the inventory increase may cause volatile fluctuations [1]. - Platinum and Palladium: Expected to be supported in the short term, a long - platinum and short - palladium arbitrage strategy can be continued [1]. - Lithium: Affected by factors such as the traditional peak season of new energy vehicles and increased supply [1]. Building materials and steel - Rebar and H - beam: 12 - month macro - drive provides rebound momentum, suitable for basis trading, do not chase high unilaterally [1]. - Iron ore: Near - month is restricted by production cuts, far - month has upward potential [1]. - Coke and Coking coal: The decline may be near the end, but the driving force needs to wait, and the downstream may start restocking in mid - December [1]. - Glass and Soda ash: Glass has supply and demand support and low valuation, but short - term sentiment dominates; soda ash follows glass, with upward resistance [1]. Agricultural products - Palm oil: The impact of floods on production is limited, and the near - month inventory pressure is large [1]. - Rapeseed oil: The industry is optimistic about the supply of Australian rapeseed and imported crude rapeseed oil, considering shorting opportunities [1]. - Cotton: Supported by the purchase price, but lacks driving force in the short term, pay attention to future policies and demand [1]. Energy and chemical products - Crude oil and Fuel oil: Affected by factors such as OPEC + policies and sanctions, showing a bearish trend [1]. - Natural rubber and BR rubber: Affected by factors such as raw material costs, inventory, and production, showing different trends [1]. - Ethylene glycol and PTA: Affected by factors such as cost, supply and demand, and new device production, with different price trends [1]. - Styrene and TGB: Affected by factors such as market supply and demand, exports, and raw material costs, showing an oscillating trend [1]. - LPG: After the price correction, it maintains range - bound oscillation, pay attention to the impact of natural gas on near - month prices [1].

Core Insights - The talc powder industry is transitioning from being a "common filler" to a "functional particle," with HPCL co-modification technology as a key driver. This technology aligns with global plastic reduction policies and meets the three demands of biodegradable plastics: high filling, high toughness, and high flow [2] - The global market for talc powder is projected to reach $1.383 billion in sales by 2024 and $1.718 billion by 2031, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.2% from 2025 to 2031 [2] Group 1 - The HPCL technology addresses the industry pain point of insufficient particle size distribution in domestic talc powder, with less than 30% of particles being ≤2μm [3] - Mechanical testing shows that adding HPCL reverses the brittleness of the PLA/talc powder system, increasing impact strength from 4.3 kJ/m² to 7.7 kJ/m² and elongation at break from 3.9% to 6.44% when 7 parts of HPCL are added [3] - The HPCL's spherical topology reduces molecular chain entanglement, enhancing the flow properties of the high-filling system, making it suitable for high-end applications like thin-walled transparent packaging and 3D printing materials [4] Group 2 - The melt flow rate of the PLA/talc powder base formula increased from 17.5 g/10min to 30.6 g/10min with the addition of 7 parts HPCL, representing a 74.6% increase [4] - The thermal stability of the system remains high, with decomposition temperatures exceeding conventional processing temperatures, ensuring compliance with EU REACH standards for heat resistance [4] - The report includes a comprehensive analysis of the Russian talc powder market, including current market size, capacity, production, sales revenue, and future forecasts [5][6]

Core Insights - Traditional material manufacturers are increasingly entering the 3D printing sector, with Nanjing Julong being a notable example, launching its new brand "Jucoole" for FDM 3D printing materials [1][3]. Company Overview - Nanjing Julong, established in 1999, specializes in high-performance modified plastics and composite materials, becoming a leading innovative enterprise in China. The company has multiple production bases with an annual production capacity exceeding 300,000 tons [3]. - Jucoole aims to develop, produce, and manufacture FDM 3D printing materials, operating from a modern facility of 9,000 square meters with over 11 specialized production lines, targeting an annual output of 1,200 tons [3]. Strategic Development Phases - **Phase 1**: Focus on adapting core materials like nylon and carbon fiber composites for 3D printing to quickly launch competitive FDM materials [5]. - **Phase 2**: Accelerate the development of high-temperature specialty engineering plastics such as PEEK, PPS, and PPA for applications in automotive, aerospace, and medical fields [6]. - **Phase 3**: Establish an integrated "materials + process" solution by collaborating with 3D printer manufacturers and end-users to create a closed-loop mechanism for joint R&D, trial production, feedback, and optimization [7]. Market Context - The 3D printing materials market is seeing significant price reductions, and the entry of more traditional material manufacturers is expected to drive prices even lower, leading to greater accessibility for consumers [8].

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 4.568 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 8.02% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders increased to 232 million yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 30.32% [1] - The net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses reached 233 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 55.14% [1] Revenue Analysis - The decline in revenue is primarily attributed to a decrease in the prices of certain products compared to the previous year [1] - The company benefited from lower raw material prices, which contributed to the increase in net profit [1] Profitability Factors - In Q3 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders surged by 90.90% year-on-year, driven by price increases in key products such as EVA and UHMWPE [1] - The net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses in Q3 2025 also saw a significant increase of 89.92% year-on-year [1] Product Contribution - New products, including EC, UHMWPE, electronic specialty gases, and PLA, have started to contribute positively to the company's profitability [1]

Core Insights - The company reported a slight revenue increase of 0.21% year-on-year for Q3 2025, reaching 1.657 billion yuan, while net profit surged by 90.90% to 71.74 million yuan [1] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved approximately 4.568 billion yuan in revenue, a decline of 8.02% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 30.32% to about 232 million yuan [1] - The significant growth in net profit for Q3 was attributed to rising prices of key products such as EVA and UHMWPE, along with contributions from new products [1] Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue: 1.657 billion yuan, up 0.21% year-on-year [1] - Q3 2025 net profit: 71.74 million yuan, up 90.90% year-on-year [1] - Q3 2025 non-recurring net profit: 72.72 million yuan, up 89.92% year-on-year [1] - First three quarters 2025 revenue: approximately 4.568 billion yuan, down 8.02% year-on-year [1] - First three quarters 2025 net profit: approximately 232 million yuan, up 30.32% year-on-year [1] - First three quarters 2025 non-recurring net profit: approximately 233 million yuan, up 55.14% year-on-year [1] Product and Project Development - The decline in revenue for the first three quarters was mainly due to a decrease in prices of certain products [1] - The increase in net profit was driven by lower raw material prices and contributions from new products like EC, UHMWPE, electronic specialty gases, and PLA [1] - Ongoing projects include the "integrated project for new energy materials and biodegradable materials," which has completed mid-term delivery, and the "lithium battery additive VC project" [1] - The "thermoplastic polyethylene elastomer POE project" is in the equipment installation phase, with completion expected by the end of 2025 [1] - The "special isocyanate XDI project" is continuing with engineering design and project preparation [1] Market Position - As of October 14, 2025, the company's stock price was 21.44 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of approximately 28.6 billion yuan [2]