Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Platinum [1] - Bearish: Industrial Silicon, Fuel Oil [1] - Volatile: Stock Index, Treasury Bond, Aluminum Oxide, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Gold, Silver, Palladium, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coke, Coking Coal, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Log, Urea, Propylene, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG, Container Shipping [1][2] Core Views - In the short - term, be cautious about the “buy - the - rumor, sell - the - news” adjustment after the policy implementation of the Central Economic Work Conference. However, the market adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the stock index to rise next year, providing a layout window [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space. There is an opportunity to go long at low positions [1]. - Metal prices are affected by factors such as industrial drivers, risk preferences, and macro - policies, showing different trends of high - level volatility, short - term rebound with limited upward drive, and short - term shock - strengthening [1]. - Precious metals have different short - and long - term trends, with some having short - term shocks and long - term upward potential, and some being recommended to wait and see [1]. - New energy - related products are affected by factors such as production capacity, demand, and cost, showing trends of decline, shock, and short - term pressure [1]. - Black metal prices are affected by factors such as macro - drivers, supply - demand, and inventory, and some products have opportunities for basis positive - spread positions [1]. - Agricultural product prices are affected by factors such as reports, policies, and supply - demand, and different products have different trends and investment suggestions [1]. - Energy - chemical product prices are affected by factors such as international agreements, supply - demand, and cost, showing trends of decline, shock, and short - term upward movement [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Stock Index: In the short - term, be cautious about the “buy - the - rumor, sell - the - news” adjustment after the policy implementation of the Central Economic Work Conference. In the long - term, the market adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the stock index to rise next year. Investors can gradually establish long positions during the adjustment period and use the discount structure of stock - index futures to optimize investment costs and win - rates [1]. - Treasury Bond: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space. The market sentiment is fluctuating recently, and there is an opportunity to go long at low positions [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Aluminum Oxide: Industrial drivers are limited, and risk preferences are fluctuating. The aluminum price is oscillating widely at a high level. Domestic alumina production and inventory are both increasing, and the fundamentals are weak. Some short - positions are closed in the short - term, and the price rebounds, but the upward drive is limited [1]. - Zinc: Short - term macro - benefits have been digested, the fundamentals have improved, the cost center has moved up, and it is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short - term. Pay attention to the changes in domestic growth - stabilizing policies [1]. - Nickel: The macro - sentiment is fluctuating. Pay attention to domestic growth - stabilizing policies and the RKAB approval of Indonesian nickel mines in 2026. Global nickel inventory is still high. The nickel price may oscillate weakly in the short - term. Pay attention to position changes and macro - sentiment. The cost of integrated MHP provides support below. Operate mainly in the short - term, and the long - term supply of primary nickel will be in surplus [1]. - Stainless Steel: The macro - sentiment is fluctuating. Pay attention to domestic growth - stabilizing policies and the RKAB approval of Indonesian nickel mines in 2026. The price of raw - material ferronickel has temporarily stabilized, the social inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly, and the estimated production cut by steel mills in December has increased. Pay attention to the actual production of steel mills. The raw - material price has stabilized, and steel mills have raised prices. The stainless - steel futures are oscillating. It is recommended to operate mainly in the short - term and look for opportunities to sell on rallies for hedging [1]. - Tin: The situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is still tense. Tin is still regarded as bullish in the long - term. Look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold: It has fallen after reaching a high. The gold price is expected to oscillate in the short - term, but there is still upward space in the long - term [1]. - Silver: It has fallen after reaching a high, with sharp fluctuations. The silver price is expected to oscillate widely in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Platinum: The platinum price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term and can be bought on dips in the long - term [1]. - Palladium: The palladium price is expected to enter an oscillation phase in the short - term. From the perspective of the relative strength of the fundamentals, the “long platinum, short palladium” arbitrage strategy can be continued [1]. - Industrial Silicon: Production is increasing in the northwest and decreasing in the southwest. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December are decreasing [1]. - Polysilicon: There is an expectation of production - capacity reduction in the long - term. Terminal installations are increasing marginally in the fourth quarter. Large manufacturers have a strong willingness to support prices and a low willingness to deliver. The number of delivery brands has increased [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: It is the traditional peak season for new - energy vehicles. Energy - storage demand is strong. Supply - side production resumption has increased. There is great pressure at the key level of 100,000 yuan [1]. Black Metals - Rebar: The macro - drive has increased in December, providing some rebound momentum. After the futures price rises, it is beneficial for the entry of basis positive - spread positions. Do not chase high in single - side trading, and can appropriately participate in spot - futures positions [1]. - Hot Rolled Coil: The macro - drive has increased in December, providing some rebound momentum. After the futures price rises, it is beneficial for the entry of basis positive - spread positions. Do not chase high in single - side trading, and the spot - futures positive - spread positions can still be continuously participated in [1]. - Iron Ore: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and there is still an upward opportunity for the far - month contract [1]. - Manganese Silicon: Direct demand is weakening, supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the price is under pressure [1]. - Ferrosilicon: Direct demand is weakening, supply is high, and the downstream is under pressure, so the price is under pressure [1]. - Glass: Supply and demand provide support, and the valuation is low, but short - term sentiment dominates, and the price is fluctuating strongly [1]. - Soda Ash: It follows the trend of glass. The supply - demand situation is okay, the valuation is low, and the downward space is limited. It may be under pressure to oscillate [1]. - Coke: From a valuation perspective, the current decline is likely to be near the end. The coke contract at 1630 prices in the expectation of 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts. Each coking - coal contract is also close to the key support level. Further decline requires a continuous increase in coking - coal supply. From a drive perspective, it may need to wait. Downstream is expected to start a new round of inventory replenishment around mid - December. For the strategy, treat single - side trading with a short - term mindset for now, and wait and see for the long - term. Close out hedging short - positions [1]. - Coking Coal: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The MPOB report is bearish, but the German RED III policy is bullish for origin exports. The night - session shows a rebound. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Soybean Oil: The USDA report has no highlights. Recently, pay attention to the bearish impact of imported soybean auctions on the supply side [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: Affected by the news of the return of imported non - GMO rapeseed oil, the supply of rapeseed oil has become relatively tight, and there is an expectation of a rebound [1]. - Cotton: There is a strong expectation of a domestic new - crop harvest, but the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream opening rate remains low, but the yarn - mill inventory is not high, and there is a rigid demand for inventory replenishment. Considering the growth of spinning capacity, the cotton demand in the new - crop market year is relatively resilient. Currently, the cotton market is in a situation of “having support but no drive”. In the future, pay attention to the setting of direct - subsidy prices and cotton - planting areas in the No. 1 Central Document in the first quarter of next year, the intention of cotton - planting areas next year, weather during the planting period, and peak - season demand from March to April [1]. - Sugar: Currently, there is a global surplus of sugar and an increase in domestic new - crop supply. The bearish consensus is relatively consistent. If the futures price continues to fall, there is strong cost support below, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous drive. Pay attention to changes in the capital side [1]. - Corn: In the short - term, funds are taking profits, and the futures price is giving back the emotional premium, but the spot contradiction has not been completely resolved. The short - term decline of the futures price is expected to be limited. Still, pay attention to changes in farmers' grain - selling mentality and inventory at each link [1]. - Soybean Meal: There are rumors of delayed customs clearance in China. Today, the成交率 and成交 premium of domestic imported soybean auctions are high, reflecting the market's expectation of commercial shortages, which is bullish for the near - month contract and positive spreads. US soybean exports are weak, there is no obvious speculation drive for South American weather, and the Brazilian discount is expected to be under pressure later. The M05 contract is expected to be relatively weak [1]. - Pulp: Pulp futures have been fluctuating greatly recently, being pulled by the reality of “weak demand” and the expectation of “strong supply”. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, and consider the 1 - 5 reverse spread for the spread [1]. - Log: Log futures have fallen due to the negative impact of falling foreign - market quotes and spot prices. The 01 contract is under great pressure as the delivery month approaches and is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Fuel Oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. The Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is still being promoted. The US has intensified a new round of sanctions against Russia. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil [1]. - Asphalt: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The demand for catch - up construction during the 14th Five - Year Plan is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma瑞 crude oil is sufficient. The asphalt profit is high [1]. - Natural Rubber: The raw - material cost provides strong support. The futures - spot price difference is at a low level. The mid - stream inventory may return to the accumulation trend [1]. - BR Rubber: The trading of butadiene has improved, the ex - tank price has increased, and there is bullish support on the export side. The listed price of major producers of cis - 1,4 - polybutadiene rubber has stabilized, and the ex - factory price of private enterprises has increased. High production and high inventory are still pressures, but the long - term demand for tires at home and abroad is increasing. Pay attention to the export situation of synthetic rubber [1]. - PTA: The gasoline cracking profit has declined, and gasoline blending performance has weakened. The PX cost is high, and the PTA profit is under pressure. The commissioning of new polyester plants has pushed the polyester load to a high level. The cancellation of the Indian BIS certification is expected to drive an increase in exports [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: The inventory is accumulating, and the price is falling accordingly. The coal price has fallen, and the cost support for domestic ethylene glycol has continued to weaken. The strong expectation of domestic plant commissioning is suppressing the rise of ethylene glycol [1]. - Short - fiber: The short - fiber price continues to closely follow the cost fluctuations [1]. - Styrene: The styrene market as a whole maintains a narrow - range oscillation. Discussions about exports provide some support, but the polymer market sales are weak. US gasoline demand has weakened, the price of blending oil has declined, and the price of high - octane components has declined [1]. - Urea: The number of overhauls has decreased, and the operating load is at a high level. There are overseas arrivals, and the supply has increased. The downstream demand operating rate has weakened. The crude - oil price has fallen, and the oil - based production cost has decreased [2]. - Propylene: The number of overhauls is small, and the operating load is relatively high. The supply pressure is relatively large. The downstream improvement is less than expected. The propylene monomer price is at a high level, providing strong cost support. The crude - oil price has fallen, and the oil - based production cost has decreased [2]. - PVC: The futures price has returned to the fundamentals. There will be fewer overhauls in the future, and new production capacity will be released, increasing the supply pressure. The demand has weakened, and orders are not good [2]. - Caustic Soda: The pre - delivery of alumina in Guangxi has started, some alumina plants have delayed production, and the procurement rhythm has slowed down. The operating load is high, and there are few overhauls. There is inventory - accumulation pressure for caustic soda in Shandong, and the price of liquid chlorine is high. The short - positions in the 01 contract have been rolled over to the March contract, and the shorts have not left the market [2]. - LPG: Geopolitical and tariff tensions have eased, and the international oil and gas market has returned to the fundamental logic of looseness. The FEI has recently rebounded and repaired upwards. The heating demand in the Northern Hemisphere is gradually being released, and there is support from chemical rigid demand. The production and sales of domestic C3/C4 are smooth, and there is no inventory pressure. After the decline in the PG futures price, it maintains a range - bound oscillation. Pay attention to the price increase of the near - month contract affected by natural gas and the decline of the far - month spread [2]. - Container Shipping: The price increase in December was less than expected. The expectation of price increases in the peak season was priced in advance. The shipping capacity supply in December is relatively loose [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, Non-ferrous metals (general), Glass, Polycrystalline silicon, Lithium, Iron ore (far - month), JF, TF - Bearish: Industrial silicon, Palm oil, Rapeseed oil, Cotton, Crude oil, Fuel oil, Benzene, Styrene, TGB, PVC, Caustic soda, Container shipping (European line) - Neutral (Oscillating): Stock index, Treasury bonds, Copper, Aluminum oxide, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless steel, Tin, Rebar, Coke, Coking coal, Lime, JF, TF, Paper pulp, Logs, Natural rubber, BR rubber, PLA, Ethylene glycol, Short - fiber, LPG Core Views - The Politburo meeting released limited incremental information. Market attention may shift to the Central Economic Work Conference, and the stock index is expected to remain strong before it [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1]. - LME copper's rising price may fall back after the short - term positive sentiment fades. The fundamentals of domestic alumina are weak, and its price is under pressure [1]. - The fundamentals of zinc have improved, and attention should be paid to the Fed's December interest - rate meeting. The short - term nickel price may fluctuate with the macro situation, and the long - term supply is excessive [1]. - The stainless - steel futures may rebound in the short term, and the tin price may rise in the short term but with a risk of a pull - back. The long - term view on tin is bullish [1]. - Gold and silver prices are supported, and platinum and palladium prices are expected to be supported in the short term. A long - platinum and short - palladium arbitrage strategy can be continued [1]. - The prices of many industrial products such as steel, iron ore, and non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as production restrictions, demand, and supply, showing an oscillating trend [1]. - The prices of agricultural products are affected by factors such as production, inventory, and demand, and are in different situations such as having support but no drive, or facing supply pressure [1]. - The prices of energy and chemical products are affected by factors such as raw material costs, supply and demand, and macro policies, showing different trends of rise, fall, or oscillation [1]. Summary by Categories Macro - financial - Stock index: Expected to remain strong before the Central Economic Work Conference [1]. - Treasury bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1]. Non - ferrous metals - Copper: LME copper's rising price may fall back after the short - term positive sentiment fades [1]. - Aluminum oxide: Domestic production and inventory are increasing, the fundamentals are weak, and the price is under pressure [1]. - Zinc: Fundamentals have improved, pay attention to the Fed's December interest - rate meeting [1]. - Nickel: Short - term price may fluctuate with the macro situation, long - term supply is excessive [1]. - Stainless steel: Futures may rebound in the short term, pay attention to the actual production of steel mills [1]. - Tin: May rise in the short term but with a risk of a pull - back, long - term view is bullish [1]. Precious metals and new energy - Gold: Supported by factors such as the central bank's continuous increase in reserves and the high probability of the Fed's December interest rate cut [1]. - Silver: Supported by factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut and supply - demand imbalance, but the inventory increase may cause volatile fluctuations [1]. - Platinum and Palladium: Expected to be supported in the short term, a long - platinum and short - palladium arbitrage strategy can be continued [1]. - Lithium: Affected by factors such as the traditional peak season of new energy vehicles and increased supply [1]. Building materials and steel - Rebar and H - beam: 12 - month macro - drive provides rebound momentum, suitable for basis trading, do not chase high unilaterally [1]. - Iron ore: Near - month is restricted by production cuts, far - month has upward potential [1]. - Coke and Coking coal: The decline may be near the end, but the driving force needs to wait, and the downstream may start restocking in mid - December [1]. - Glass and Soda ash: Glass has supply and demand support and low valuation, but short - term sentiment dominates; soda ash follows glass, with upward resistance [1]. Agricultural products - Palm oil: The impact of floods on production is limited, and the near - month inventory pressure is large [1]. - Rapeseed oil: The industry is optimistic about the supply of Australian rapeseed and imported crude rapeseed oil, considering shorting opportunities [1]. - Cotton: Supported by the purchase price, but lacks driving force in the short term, pay attention to future policies and demand [1]. Energy and chemical products - Crude oil and Fuel oil: Affected by factors such as OPEC + policies and sanctions, showing a bearish trend [1]. - Natural rubber and BR rubber: Affected by factors such as raw material costs, inventory, and production, showing different trends [1]. - Ethylene glycol and PTA: Affected by factors such as cost, supply and demand, and new device production, with different price trends [1]. - Styrene and TGB: Affected by factors such as market supply and demand, exports, and raw material costs, showing an oscillating trend [1]. - LPG: After the price correction, it maintains range - bound oscillation, pay attention to the impact of natural gas on near - month prices [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate [1] - Bearish: Fuel Oil [1] - Volatile: Equity Index, Treasury Bonds, Copper, Aluminum Oxide, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals, Industrial Silicon, Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Ore, Silicomanganese, Ferrosilicon, Coke, Coking Coal, Black Metal, Soda Ash, Glass, Jiao Coal, Palm Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Soybean, Pulp, Log, Live Pig, Crude Oil, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Styrene, Urea, Propylene, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG [1] Core Viewpoints - The market divergence is expected to gradually be digested during the index's volatile adjustment, and the index is expected to rise further with the emergence of new mainlines. The market adjustment provides an opportunity to lay out for the index's further upward movement next year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1]. - For various commodities, their prices are affected by factors such as macro - economic conditions, supply - demand relationships, and cost supports, showing different trends of rise, fall, or volatility [1]. Summary by Category Macro - Financial - Equity Index: Market divergence will be digested during adjustment, with potential for further upward movement. Central Huijin's support limits downside risk. Market adjustment provides a layout opportunity, and traders can build long positions during the adjustment and use the stock - index futures' discount structure to increase the probability of long - term investment success [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest - rate risks are warned by the central bank, suppressing the upward space [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: There is a risk of price decline after the digestion of short - term positive sentiment [1]. - Aluminum Oxide: Domestic production and inventory are both increasing, the fundamental situation is weak, and prices are under downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the price changes at the mine end [1]. - Zinc: After the digestion of short - term macro - positive factors and with oversupply, there is a risk of price decline. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices [1]. - Nickel: Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has risen, and the macro sentiment has improved. Indonesia's restrictions on nickel - related smelting projects have limited impact. Short - term nickel prices may fluctuate with the macro situation. It is recommended to go long at low levels in the short - term range, and the medium - to - long - term supply of nickel will remain in surplus [1]. - Stainless Steel: The macro sentiment has improved, and raw materials have stopped falling. The stainless - steel futures will fluctuate and rebound in the short term. Pay attention to the actual production situation of steel mills [1]. - Tin: After the digestion of macro - positive sentiment, due to the tense situation in Congo and the short - term supply not being restored, tin prices have strengthened. However, beware of the risk of short - term over - rise and fall. The medium - to - long - term outlook is bullish [1]. - Precious Metals: Gold may fluctuate within a range. Silver's short - term price will continue to fluctuate sharply. Platinum is expected to fluctuate in the short term. For palladium, the short - term strategy is to short at high levels, and the medium - term [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can continue to be held [1]. - Industrial Silicon: Northwest production is increasing while Southwest production is decreasing. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December are decreasing [1]. - Polysilicon: There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the medium - to - long - term. Terminal installations are increasing marginally in the fourth quarter. Large manufacturers are reluctant to sell and are strong in price support [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, and the energy - storage demand is strong. The supply side is resuming production and increasing output [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: The macro - driving force is increasing in December, providing some rebound momentum. After the futures price rises, it is beneficial for basis positive - arbitrage positions to enter. Do not chase high in single - side trading [1]. - Iron Ore: Direct demand is okay, with cost support, but supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the price rebound space is limited [1]. - Manganese Ore and Silicomanganese: The short - term production profit is poor, with cost support, but supply is high, and the price rebound is limited [1]. - Ferrosilicon: Supply and demand provide support, and the valuation is low, but short - term sentiment dominates, and price fluctuations are strong [1]. - Soda Ash: Follows glass, but with average supply and demand, there is great resistance to price increase [1]. - Coke and Coking Coal: From a valuation perspective, the decline is close to the end. From a driving perspective, downstream replenishment may start around mid - December. For now, use a short - term strategy for single - side trading and wait and see for the medium - to - long - term [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The impact of floods on production is limited, and the near - month inventory pressure is large. The domestic arrival in December is expected to be large, and the basis is expected to be weak [1]. - Cotton: There is support but no driving force in the short term. Future attention should be paid to policies, planting intentions, weather, and demand in the peak season [1]. - Sugar: There is a consensus on short - selling due to global surplus and increased domestic supply. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short - term fundamentals [1]. - Soybean: China's purchases support the US market. Brazilian weather lacks obvious speculation themes, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate [1]. - Pulp: There are cancellations of old warehouse receipts and registrations of new ones. The recovery of demand remains to be verified, and the short - term price will fluctuate [1]. - Log: The fundamental situation has weakened but has been priced in the market. The risk - reward ratio of short - selling after a sharp decline is low. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Live Pig: The spot price is stabilizing, with demand support, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC + has suspended production increase until the end of 2026, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is postponed, and the US has increased sanctions on Russia [1]. - Fuel Oil: Bearish due to factors such as OPEC + policies, the Russia - Ukraine situation, and US sanctions [1]. - Asphalt: Short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The demand during the 14th Five - Year Plan may be falsified, and supply is sufficient. The profit is high [1]. - BR Rubber: The price support of butadiene is limited. Refinery overhauls may bring a positive expectation. High inventory restricts price increase, but the synthetic valuation is low [1]. - PTA: OPEC's production increase has slowed down, and there are positive factors such as domestic PTA export improvement [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Inventory is increasing, prices are falling, and cost support is weakening [1]. - Short Fiber: The price follows cost closely, and the basis has strengthened [1]. - Styrene: The cost support is weakening due to factors such as weak Asian benzene prices and reduced US gasoline demand [1]. - Urea: There is limited upward space due to insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from cost and anti - dumping [1]. - Propylene: Supply pressure is large, downstream improvement is less than expected, but cost support is strong [1]. - PVC: Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weakening [1]. - Caustic Soda: There are factors such as delivery from Guangxi alumina plants, high - load operation, and potential squeezing risks [1]. - LPG: The international oil and gas market returns to a loose fundamental situation. The CP/FEI has rebounded. The price will fluctuate within a range after a decline [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not explicitly provided in the report Core Views of the Report - The market divergence is expected to be gradually digested during the index's shock adjustment this year, and the index is expected to rise further with the emergence of a new main line. The central Huijin's support provides a buffer, and the downside risk of the index is generally controllable. The recent market adjustment offers a layout opportunity for the index's further rise next year [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the rise [1] - The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is rising, improving the macro - sentiment, which has an impact on various commodities Summary by Industry and Variety Macro - finance - **Stock Index Futures**: The recent market adjustment provides a layout opportunity for the index's rise next year. Traders can gradually build long positions during the adjustment and use the discount structure of index futures to increase the probability of long - term investment success [1] - **Bond Futures**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the rise [1] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is rising, the market sentiment is positive, and the industrial side provides support, so the price is running strongly [1] - **Aluminum**: The recent industrial drive is limited, but the macro - sentiment is positive, leading to a price rebound [1] - **Alumina**: The domestic production and inventory are both increasing, the fundamentals are weak, and the price is oscillating around the cost line. Attention should be paid to the change in ore prices [1] - **Zinc**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is rising, the macro - sentiment is improving. The reduction in processing fees in December led to a production cut of over 30,000 tons, improving the fundamentals and supporting the price. It is oscillating strongly in the short term but faces upward pressure [1] - **Nickel**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is rising, and the macro - sentiment is warming. Indonesia has restricted nickel - related smelting project approvals again. The nickel price has rebounded after position reduction. In the short term, it may oscillate with the macro - situation. It is recommended to go long at low levels in the short - term range and consider a light - position long - nickel short - stainless - steel strategy. In the medium - to - long - term, primary nickel remains in an oversupply situation [1] - **Stainless Steel**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is rising, and the macro - sentiment is warming. The raw material price has stopped falling. In the short term, it is oscillating. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations and consider a light - position long - nickel short - stainless - steel strategy. Pay attention to the opportunity of selling at high levels for hedging [1] - **Tin**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is rising, and the macro - sentiment is improving. Due to the tense situation in Congo and the short - term supply not being restored, the price is rising. However, considering the demand pressure, be cautious when chasing high. In the medium - to - long - term, it is still bullish. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low levels during the callback [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - **Gold**: Affected by the silver squeeze and the high probability of a December interest - rate cut, the price may run strongly [1] - **Silver**: The squeeze sentiment is fermenting, and the price is rising strongly. It is bullish in the short term, but be vigilant against high volatility [1] - **Platinum**: Affected by the silver squeeze, the price is expected to run strongly in the short term. The domestic futures price still has a premium over the foreign market, so the volatility may be relatively large [1] - **Palladium**: Affected by the silver squeeze, the price is expected to run strongly in the short term. The domestic futures price is higher than the foreign market. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading. The medium - term long - platinum short - palladium arbitrage strategy can continue to be held [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: The northwest production capacity is resuming, and the southwest start - up is weaker than in previous years. The impact of the dry season is weakening. There is an expectation of production capacity reduction in the medium - to - long - term, and the terminal installation is increasing marginally in the fourth quarter [1] - **Polysilicon**: The production schedule decreased in November, and there was a joint production cut in the organic silicon industry. Large manufacturers have a strong willingness to support prices and a low willingness to deliver goods [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, the energy - storage demand is strong, and the supply side is resuming production and increasing production. The macro - drive is strengthening in December, providing some rebound momentum [1] Building Materials and Steel - **Rebar**: The macro - drive is strengthening in December, providing some rebound momentum. After the futures price rises, it is beneficial for the entry of basis positive - arbitrage positions. Do not chase high for unilateral trading, and appropriate participation in spot - futures positions is recommended [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Similar to rebar, the macro - drive in December provides rebound momentum, and basis positive - arbitrage positions can be rolled and participated in. Do not chase high for unilateral trading [1] - **Iron Ore**: The near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contracts still have upward opportunities [1] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: From a valuation perspective, the decline is close to the end. The downstream is expected to start a new round of replenishment around mid - December. For the strategy, take a short - term view for unilateral trading and wait and see for the medium - to - long - term. Cash - out the short - hedging positions [1] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The supply and demand provide support, and the valuation is low, but the short - term price is driven by sentiment and fluctuates strongly. Soda ash follows glass, but the upward price resistance is relatively large [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The impact of floods on production is limited, and the near - month inventory pressure is large. The domestic arrival in December is expected to be large, and the basis is expected to be weak [1] - **Rapeseed**: The industry is optimistic about the supplement of Australian rapeseed and imported crude rapeseed oil. Consider short - selling opportunities [1] - **Cotton**: The cotton market is currently in a situation of "support but no drive". In the future, pay attention to the central No. 1 document's tone on direct - subsidy prices and cotton - planting areas in the first quarter of next year, the intention of cotton - planting areas next year, the weather during the planting period, and the demand during the peak season [1] - **Sugar**: The global sugar supply has changed from shortage to surplus, and the raw sugar price is under pressure. The domestic new - crop supply pressure has increased compared with the same period last year, and the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to be under pressure and follow the raw sugar [1] - **Grain and Oil Crops**: The short - term replenishment demand of downstream low - inventory cannot be met in time due to logistics and weather factors, resulting in a phased supply - demand mismatch. The spot price is firm, and the futures price is expected to oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish [1] - **Soybean Meal**: The Chinese procurement demand supports the US market. The domestic market is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term. Pay attention to the South American weather. If there is weather speculation, it will be beneficial for unilateral trading and the spot basis [1] - **Paper Pulp**: There have been cancellations of old warehouse receipts and registrations of new warehouse receipts recently. The recovery of the demand side remains to be verified, and it is oscillating in the short term [1] - **Logs**: The fundamentals of logs have weakened, but it has been priced in the market. The profit - loss ratio of short - selling after a sharp decline in the market is low. It is recommended to wait and see [1] - **Live Pigs**: The recent spot price has gradually stabilized. Supported by demand and with the出栏体重 not yet cleared, the production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is being promoted, and the US has increased a new round of sanctions against Russia [1] - **Fuel Oil**: In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows crude oil. The demand for catch - up work during the 14th Five - Year Plan is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The profit of asphalt is relatively high [1] - **Natural Rubber**: The raw material cost provides strong support, the basis between futures and spot is at a low level, and the middle - stream inventory may tend to accumulate [1] - **BR Rubber**: The support of butadiene price is limited. Refinery overhauls may bring a bullish expectation to the market. The supply price of mainstream butadiene rubber has been significantly reduced, but rubber factories still have profits and strong processing willingness. The high - inventory and loose fundamentals still suppress the upward price movement, but the current synthetic valuation is low. Pay attention to the subsequent rebound range [1] - **PTA**: OPEC's production increase is slowing down, the US's action expectation on Venezuela is wavering. The domestic PTA manufacturers' export prospects have improved, boosting the PX procurement sentiment [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The inventory is increasing, and the price is falling. The coal price is falling, and the domestic cost support for ethylene glycol continues to weaken. The domestic device commissioning expectation strongly suppresses the rise of ethylene glycol [1] - **Short - Fiber**: The price of PTA has rebounded, and the short - fiber basis has also strengthened. The short - fiber price continues to fluctuate closely following the cost [1] - **Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is still weak, the operating rates of STDP devices and reforming devices have decreased. The US gasoline demand has weakened, the price of blending oil has decreased, and the cost support for styrene has weakened [1] - **Urea**: The export sentiment has eased, and the limited domestic demand restricts the upward space. There is support from the anti - internal - roll and the cost side [1] - **Propylene**: The number of overhauls has decreased, the operating load is at a high level, and the supply pressure is relatively large. The downstream improvement is less than expected, and the high - level propylene monomer provides strong cost support [1] - **PVC**: The market is returning to fundamentals. There will be fewer subsequent overhauls, new production capacity will be released, the supply will increase, the demand will weaken, and the orders are not good [1] - **Caustic Soda**: Some alumina plants in Guangxi have started to deliver goods, and some alumina plants have delayed production. The delivery rhythm has slowed down. There will be fewer subsequent overhauls. There is a pressure of inventory accumulation in Shandong caustic soda, and the price of liquid chlorine is high. The absolute price is low, and the near - month warehouse receipts are limited, so there is a risk of a squeeze [1] - **LPG**: Geopolitical and tariff tensions have eased, and the international oil and gas market has returned to the logic of loose fundamentals. CP/FEI has recently rebounded. The ethylene device of Maoming Petrochemical in South China is planned to be overhauled, and there is an expectation of an increase in civilian supply from now to January. The combustion demand is gradually being released, and the domestic C3/C4 production and sales are smooth, with no inventory pressure. The PG price is oscillating within a range after a supplementary decline. Pay attention to the rise of the near - month price affected by natural gas and the decline of the far - month spread [1] Shipping - **Container Shipping (European Line)**: The price increase in December was less than expected, the peak - season price - increase expectation was priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply in December was relatively loose [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply policy of the steel industry remains rigid, and the subsequent policy impact on the black commodity price is expected to be neutral. The manufacturing PMI improved in August 2025 but remained below the boom - bust line [2]. - There may be a situation where the peak season is not prosperous in the steel market due to the limited real downstream demand and the profit - taking of basis positive spreads [3]. - The black market is expected to experience short - term price adjustments and medium - term oscillations [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Policy and Macro - economic Environment - The "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" was introduced, with the average annual growth of the steel industry's added value at about 4% from 2025 - 2026. The subsequent policy on combating "involution" may be mild [2]. - In August 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing business activity index in June 2025 was 50.5%, showing continuous improvement [2][91]. Pricing and Market Rhythm - The basis positive spreads built in the early stage are entering the closing period, and the real downstream demand for steel is limited, which may lead to a situation where the peak season is not prosperous [3]. Supply and Demand Situation Demand Side - In the real estate sector, the high - frequency sales data of new houses declined month - on - month, and the year - on - year new construction area was negative. Although policies in some areas were relaxed, the overall demand for building materials was still weak [3]. - In infrastructure projects, there were many project starts, but there were still capital pressures, and the overall construction progress was slow, with the concrete delivery volume still showing a year - on - year decrease [3]. - For rolled steel, the demand from downstream industries such as machinery, automobiles, containers, and home appliances was acceptable, but the upward rebound elasticity of rolled steel was limited [3]. - The export policy is expected to have a significant impact on the "buying orders for export" after mid - September [3]. Supply Side - There may be a slight production restriction during the military parade, but the overall supply is expected to remain strong. The iron - making water output is expected to remain at a high level [4]. Cost and Profit - The futures prices of raw materials such as coking coal rebounded, and coke had the eighth round of price increases. The disk valuation is expected to be between the valley - electricity and flat - electricity valuations [4]. Key Strategy Recommendations - Steel, ore, coking coal, coke, and ferrosilicon are expected to fluctuate [5]. - For manganese silicon, it is recommended to be short on rallies in the medium term [5]. - For the spread between ferrosilicon and manganese silicon, a long position is recommended [5]. - The spread between rolled steel and spiral steel may decline from a high level [5]. - Pay attention to the long - term recovery of the steel - ore price ratio under production restrictions [5]. - For the basis of steel, pay attention to the closing of positive spreads in the peak season and the establishment of reverse spreads [5]. - Hold short positions in steel wide - straddle options [5].

Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - PX: Supply and demand are weakening, and attention should be paid to warehouse receipt pressure. The unilateral trend is weak, and attention should be paid to warehouse receipt pressure and the roll - over of the main contract. The PXN has fallen from a high level, and the PX - MX spread has also declined but remains at a high level. Future Asian PX supply will gradually increase [3][4]. - PTA: Cost support is weak, and there is negative demand feedback. Attention should be paid to warehouse receipt pressure. The unilateral trend is weak, and short positions should be held. The spot processing fee remains low, and the basis and monthly spread are both weak [5]. - MEG: The unilateral trend is weak, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of positive monthly spread arbitrage. The profit of coal - based MEG plants has recovered, and the production of some ethylene oxide plants will be converted to MEG in the future [6]. Summary by Directory PX Valuation and Profit - PX unilateral price has dropped significantly, and the structure has gradually become flat. The PXN has fallen from a high level, and the PX - MX spread has also declined but remains high. Asian gasoline cracking spreads are weak, and the toluene disproportionation spread has weakened, while the toluene blending profit has recovered. The aromatics blending economy has improved [20][23][24]. Supply and Demand - China's PX operating rate is 81.1% (+1.2%), and Asia's overall operating rate is 73.4% (+0.5%). There is no new PX maintenance in China in August, and some plants are restarting. Future Asian PX supply will gradually increase. PTA device operating rate is expected to decline in August, which means reduced demand for PX [3][42]. Inventory - In July, the monthly PX inventory in Longzhong dropped to 414 tons (-24) [65]. PTA Valuation and Profit - The spot supply is increasing, the basis is in a reverse arbitrage situation, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of positive monthly spread arbitrage at low levels. The spot processing fee remains at a low level, and some plants have unplanned maintenance [71][82]. Supply and Demand - The PTA device operating rate remains at 75.3% (-4.4%) and is expected to continue to decline in August. Some plants have stopped production or reduced loads. PTA exports are expected to increase in July - August, and port inventories are rising, but the total inventory accumulation is lower than expected [86][92][105]. Inventory - PTA port inventories are rising, but the cumulative increase in total inventory is lower than expected [105]. MEG Valuation and Profit - The unilateral valuation is in a volatile market, the monthly spread has declined, and the downward space is limited. The relative valuation of MEG compared to ethylene oxide, styrene, and plastics has risen to a high level this year, and the profits of each link have significantly recovered [125][129][132]. Supply and Demand - The operating rate of MEG continues to rise. Overseas, some plants are operating at low loads or under maintenance, and imports will remain high. Domestic coal - based MEG device operating rate is 75% (+0.6%), and future loads will continue to rise [135][136]. Inventory - No relevant content provided. 2025 PX - PTA - Polyester Production Plan - PX will have a new production capacity of 300 tons from Yulong Petrochemical in the second half of the year. - PTA will have new production capacities of 600 tons from Sanfangxiang and Xin Fengming in the second half of the year. - MEG will have new production capacities of 100 tons from Yulong Petrochemical and others in the second half of the year. - Polyester will have new production capacities of 305 tons from Anhui Youshun and others throughout the year [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - PX is in a short - term weak and volatile market. With multiple device overhauls postponed, supply is expected to rise again in July. Overseas device restarts also increase the operating rate. PXN is under pressure, and it is recommended to short PXN on rallies [8]. - PTA shows a positive basis spread arbitrage, a reverse calendar spread arbitrage, and a weak and volatile unilateral trend. The long - PX short - PTA position should be stopped for profit. Demand is weak in July, and PTA will start to accumulate inventory from late July [8]. - MEG has a positive basis and calendar spread arbitrage. The unilateral valuation is not recommended to short. Although the 09 contract is relatively weak, the downside space of the 9 - 1 spread is limited. It is recommended to go long on dips for the 9 - 1 spread and go long on dips for the unilateral position [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - PX: A 390,000 - ton PX device in North China postponed its overhaul to late July for two months. A 9 - million - ton PX device in East China reduced its load in July and canceled the original overhaul plan. Some overseas devices restarted. By the end of the week, the domestic PX operating rate dropped to 81%, and the Asian total operating rate rose to 74.1%. Asian PX prices continued to decline on July 4 due to weak downstream demand [4]. - Polyester: A 600,000 - ton polyester device in Huzhou is under overhaul, and the restart time is undetermined [7]. Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: - 1, indicating a weak outlook. - PTA trend intensity: - 1, indicating a weak outlook. - MEG trend intensity: 0, indicating a neutral outlook [7]. Views and Suggestions - PX: With multiple device overhauls postponed, it is a short - term weak and volatile market. Pay attention to the compression position of the far - month PXN. It is recommended to short PXN on rallies [8]. - PTA: Conduct positive basis spread arbitrage and reverse calendar spread arbitrage. The unilateral trend is weak and volatile. Stop the profit of the long - PX short - PTA position. Pay attention to the crude oil trend [8]. - MEG: Conduct positive basis and calendar spread arbitrage. Do not short the unilateral valuation. Go long on dips for the 9 - 1 spread and the unilateral position [9].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The polyester market is in a weak and volatile state in the short - term due to the off - season of demand. Multiple plant maintenance delays have led to an expected increase in supply in July. It is recommended to short PXN on rallies. - For PTA, it is advisable to conduct basis positive spreads, reverse calendar spreads, and the unilateral trend is weakly volatile. Take profit on the long PX and short PTA strategy. - For MEG, conduct basis and calendar positive spreads, and avoid shorting based on valuation. Consider going long on dips for the unilateral position. [3][4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 PX - **Valuation and Profit** - The unilateral trend of PX is weak, and the calendar spreads are also weakening. The PXN has fallen from a high level, and the gasoline cracking spread has declined, leading to weaker aromatics blending demand. Aromatic prices show a differentiated trend, with toluene and pure benzene prices weak, while PX prices are strong, and disproportionation profits have recovered. [20][26][43] - **Supply and Demand, Inventory** - The operating rate of PX has slightly decreased. In June, the domestic production of PX rebounded to 319 tons, and the operating rate this week was 81% (-2.8%). The import volume in May rebounded to 77.3 tons. The monthly inventory in June decreased to 435 tons (-16). [55][64][83] 3.2 PTA - **Valuation and Profit** - The basis of PTA has dropped significantly as spot traders have exited basis trades. The 9 - 1 calendar spread continues to focus on reverse spreads, and the number of warehouse receipts has decreased to a low level. The cost has risen, the profit of PX has declined, and the profit of PTA has remained at a low level. [95][97][102] - **Supply and Demand, Inventory** - The operating rate of PTA has remained stable. In June, the production volume was 629 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.4%. The export volume in May decreased significantly to 27 tons, and it is expected to rebound in June - July. The social inventory last week was 215 (-5) tons, and the de - stocking slope has slowed down. [107][113][129] 3.3 MEG - **Valuation and Profit** - The unilateral valuation of MEG is in a volatile state, and the calendar spreads have declined. The profits of each production link have weakened month - on - month, and the MTO and ethylene - imported ethylene glycol production are suffering severe losses. [140][148] - **Supply and Demand, Inventory** - The operating rate of MEG has decreased month - on - month. The operating rate in July is expected to remain in the 66 - 70% range. The import volume in May was 60 tons, and it is expected to rebound in June. The inventory is at a low level. [156][160][167] 3.4 Polyester - **Valuation and Profit** - No specific valuation and profit information is provided in the report. - **Supply and Demand, Inventory** - The operating rate of polyester is 90.2% (-0.6%). The production volume has increased by 8% year - on - year. The inventory pressure of polyester filament has increased significantly. [171][177][179] 3.5 Terminal: Weaving, Clothing No specific information is provided in the report.