下游需求依然疲弱，谨防旺季调整风险 中泰黑色报告 2025年9月1日 黑色研究团队 裴红彬 从业资格号：F0286311 交易咨询证书号：Z0010786 张 林 从业资格号：F0243334 交易咨询证书号：Z0000866 董雪珊 从业资格号：F3075616 交易咨询证书号：Z0018025 公司地址：济南市市中区经七路86号证券大厦15、16层 客服电话：400-618-6767 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 中泰黑色报告摘要20250830：下游需求依然疲弱，谨防旺季调整风险 交易逻辑和核心观点 从政策角度看，从政策角度看，《钢铁行业稳增长工作方案（2025-2026年）》出台，虽然其中提到"继续实施产量压减政策"，但是2025-2026年， 钢铁行业增加值年均增长4%左右（与《钢铁行业稳增长工作方案（2023-2024年）》相比，工业增加值基本相同），所以供给政策依然是刚性的，总体对钢 材供给和市场行情影响有限。 "防内卷"会议精神方面，7月底的政治局会议延续了7月初中财委会议的精神，继续强调了"反内卷"，不过表述较此前有 所放松，后续政策力度可能 ...

Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - PX: Supply and demand are weakening, and attention should be paid to warehouse receipt pressure. The unilateral trend is weak, and attention should be paid to warehouse receipt pressure and the roll - over of the main contract. The PXN has fallen from a high level, and the PX - MX spread has also declined but remains at a high level. Future Asian PX supply will gradually increase [3][4]. - PTA: Cost support is weak, and there is negative demand feedback. Attention should be paid to warehouse receipt pressure. The unilateral trend is weak, and short positions should be held. The spot processing fee remains low, and the basis and monthly spread are both weak [5]. - MEG: The unilateral trend is weak, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of positive monthly spread arbitrage. The profit of coal - based MEG plants has recovered, and the production of some ethylene oxide plants will be converted to MEG in the future [6]. Summary by Directory PX Valuation and Profit - PX unilateral price has dropped significantly, and the structure has gradually become flat. The PXN has fallen from a high level, and the PX - MX spread has also declined but remains high. Asian gasoline cracking spreads are weak, and the toluene disproportionation spread has weakened, while the toluene blending profit has recovered. The aromatics blending economy has improved [20][23][24]. Supply and Demand - China's PX operating rate is 81.1% (+1.2%), and Asia's overall operating rate is 73.4% (+0.5%). There is no new PX maintenance in China in August, and some plants are restarting. Future Asian PX supply will gradually increase. PTA device operating rate is expected to decline in August, which means reduced demand for PX [3][42]. Inventory - In July, the monthly PX inventory in Longzhong dropped to 414 tons (-24) [65]. PTA Valuation and Profit - The spot supply is increasing, the basis is in a reverse arbitrage situation, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of positive monthly spread arbitrage at low levels. The spot processing fee remains at a low level, and some plants have unplanned maintenance [71][82]. Supply and Demand - The PTA device operating rate remains at 75.3% (-4.4%) and is expected to continue to decline in August. Some plants have stopped production or reduced loads. PTA exports are expected to increase in July - August, and port inventories are rising, but the total inventory accumulation is lower than expected [86][92][105]. Inventory - PTA port inventories are rising, but the cumulative increase in total inventory is lower than expected [105]. MEG Valuation and Profit - The unilateral valuation is in a volatile market, the monthly spread has declined, and the downward space is limited. The relative valuation of MEG compared to ethylene oxide, styrene, and plastics has risen to a high level this year, and the profits of each link have significantly recovered [125][129][132]. Supply and Demand - The operating rate of MEG continues to rise. Overseas, some plants are operating at low loads or under maintenance, and imports will remain high. Domestic coal - based MEG device operating rate is 75% (+0.6%), and future loads will continue to rise [135][136]. Inventory - No relevant content provided. 2025 PX - PTA - Polyester Production Plan - PX will have a new production capacity of 300 tons from Yulong Petrochemical in the second half of the year. - PTA will have new production capacities of 600 tons from Sanfangxiang and Xin Fengming in the second half of the year. - MEG will have new production capacities of 100 tons from Yulong Petrochemical and others in the second half of the year. - Polyester will have new production capacities of 305 tons from Anhui Youshun and others throughout the year [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - PX is in a short - term weak and volatile market. With multiple device overhauls postponed, supply is expected to rise again in July. Overseas device restarts also increase the operating rate. PXN is under pressure, and it is recommended to short PXN on rallies [8]. - PTA shows a positive basis spread arbitrage, a reverse calendar spread arbitrage, and a weak and volatile unilateral trend. The long - PX short - PTA position should be stopped for profit. Demand is weak in July, and PTA will start to accumulate inventory from late July [8]. - MEG has a positive basis and calendar spread arbitrage. The unilateral valuation is not recommended to short. Although the 09 contract is relatively weak, the downside space of the 9 - 1 spread is limited. It is recommended to go long on dips for the 9 - 1 spread and go long on dips for the unilateral position [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - PX: A 390,000 - ton PX device in North China postponed its overhaul to late July for two months. A 9 - million - ton PX device in East China reduced its load in July and canceled the original overhaul plan. Some overseas devices restarted. By the end of the week, the domestic PX operating rate dropped to 81%, and the Asian total operating rate rose to 74.1%. Asian PX prices continued to decline on July 4 due to weak downstream demand [4]. - Polyester: A 600,000 - ton polyester device in Huzhou is under overhaul, and the restart time is undetermined [7]. Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: - 1, indicating a weak outlook. - PTA trend intensity: - 1, indicating a weak outlook. - MEG trend intensity: 0, indicating a neutral outlook [7]. Views and Suggestions - PX: With multiple device overhauls postponed, it is a short - term weak and volatile market. Pay attention to the compression position of the far - month PXN. It is recommended to short PXN on rallies [8]. - PTA: Conduct positive basis spread arbitrage and reverse calendar spread arbitrage. The unilateral trend is weak and volatile. Stop the profit of the long - PX short - PTA position. Pay attention to the crude oil trend [8]. - MEG: Conduct positive basis and calendar spread arbitrage. Do not short the unilateral valuation. Go long on dips for the 9 - 1 spread and the unilateral position [9].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The polyester market is in a weak and volatile state in the short - term due to the off - season of demand. Multiple plant maintenance delays have led to an expected increase in supply in July. It is recommended to short PXN on rallies. - For PTA, it is advisable to conduct basis positive spreads, reverse calendar spreads, and the unilateral trend is weakly volatile. Take profit on the long PX and short PTA strategy. - For MEG, conduct basis and calendar positive spreads, and avoid shorting based on valuation. Consider going long on dips for the unilateral position. [3][4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 PX - **Valuation and Profit** - The unilateral trend of PX is weak, and the calendar spreads are also weakening. The PXN has fallen from a high level, and the gasoline cracking spread has declined, leading to weaker aromatics blending demand. Aromatic prices show a differentiated trend, with toluene and pure benzene prices weak, while PX prices are strong, and disproportionation profits have recovered. [20][26][43] - **Supply and Demand, Inventory** - The operating rate of PX has slightly decreased. In June, the domestic production of PX rebounded to 319 tons, and the operating rate this week was 81% (-2.8%). The import volume in May rebounded to 77.3 tons. The monthly inventory in June decreased to 435 tons (-16). [55][64][83] 3.2 PTA - **Valuation and Profit** - The basis of PTA has dropped significantly as spot traders have exited basis trades. The 9 - 1 calendar spread continues to focus on reverse spreads, and the number of warehouse receipts has decreased to a low level. The cost has risen, the profit of PX has declined, and the profit of PTA has remained at a low level. [95][97][102] - **Supply and Demand, Inventory** - The operating rate of PTA has remained stable. In June, the production volume was 629 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.4%. The export volume in May decreased significantly to 27 tons, and it is expected to rebound in June - July. The social inventory last week was 215 (-5) tons, and the de - stocking slope has slowed down. [107][113][129] 3.3 MEG - **Valuation and Profit** - The unilateral valuation of MEG is in a volatile state, and the calendar spreads have declined. The profits of each production link have weakened month - on - month, and the MTO and ethylene - imported ethylene glycol production are suffering severe losses. [140][148] - **Supply and Demand, Inventory** - The operating rate of MEG has decreased month - on - month. The operating rate in July is expected to remain in the 66 - 70% range. The import volume in May was 60 tons, and it is expected to rebound in June. The inventory is at a low level. [156][160][167] 3.4 Polyester - **Valuation and Profit** - No specific valuation and profit information is provided in the report. - **Supply and Demand, Inventory** - The operating rate of polyester is 90.2% (-0.6%). The production volume has increased by 8% year - on - year. The inventory pressure of polyester filament has increased significantly. [171][177][179] 3.5 Terminal: Weaving, Clothing No specific information is provided in the report.