Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - After the Fed's interest rate cut, commodities generally declined, and Zhengzhou cotton started to follow the logic of increased production. As the time for a large amount of new cotton to be listed approaches, the supporting effect of tight old - crop inventory on cotton prices is gradually weakening. Coupled with the downstream peak season falling short of expectations, Zhengzhou cotton has significantly declined this week [4]. - Recently, the operating loads of spinning mills and fabric mills have remained stable, and the finished - product inventories have slightly decreased. However, the marginal improvement in downstream demand is not obvious, and the peak season is under - performing. Domestic cotton production is increasing, and supply pressure is emerging. There is insufficient upward driving force for cotton prices, which may run weakly. Attention should be paid to the support around 13,500 yuan/ton. With holidays approaching and a large amount of seed cotton about to be listed, cautious operation is recommended [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Old - crop Commercial Inventory - As of mid - September, the domestic cotton commercial inventory was 1.176 million tons, a decrease of 306,000 tons compared to the end of August. Among them, the inventory in Xinjiang was 460,000 tons, and the inventory in the inland was 430,000 tons. It is roughly estimated that by the end of September, the domestic cotton commercial inventory may drop to about 900,000 - 1 million tons, significantly lower than the same period in previous years. However, new cotton will be concentratedly listed in October, and the domestic cotton commercial inventory will start to accumulate. Even if the commercial inventory in September is low, it will not substantially affect the cotton use of textile enterprises. As the time for new cotton to be concentratedly listed approaches, the supporting effect of tight old - crop inventory on near - month cotton prices is gradually weakening [5]. 2. Downstream Operating Load and Inventory - As of Thursday this week, the operating load indexes of downstream spinning mills and fabric mills were 50.3 and 52.5 respectively, remaining basically stable since the middle and late ten - day period. Their finished - product inventories were 25.8 days and 29 days respectively, continuing to reduce inventory, but the inventory reduction speed has slowed down compared to the previous period. Compared with the same period in previous years, the operating load index of spinning mills has risen slowly and is at the lowest level in the same period in the past three years. The growth rate of the operating load index of fabric mills has slowed down month - on - month and is currently equivalent to that of last year. The inventory reduction speed of finished products is the same as that of last year, but the absolute position is at the highest level in the same period in the past three years [6]. 3. US Cotton Export Sales - As of the week ending September 18, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 19,500 tons, a 54% decrease month - on - month, a 53% decrease compared to the four - week average, and a 19% decrease year - on - year. Among them, India signed 6,200 tons, and Turkey signed 5,100 tons. The weekly shipment volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 31,100 tons, a 14% increase month - on - month, a 6% increase compared to the four - week average, and a 6% increase year - on - year. Among them, Vietnam shipped 9,500 tons, India 4,800 tons, and China 1,600 tons. The weekly export signing volume has declined again, with the overall signing performance being poor, and the progress is 16% slower than the five - year average, at the lowest level in the past five years. As of the week ending September 18, China had signed a total of 17,000 tons of US cotton for this year [6]. 4. Price Indexes and Price Changes - **Cotton and Yarn Futures and Spot Prices**: As of Thursday this week, the 328 cotton spot price index was [missing value] yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of [missing value] yuan/ton; the closing price of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract was [missing value] yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of [missing value] yuan/ton; the basis between the two was [missing value] yuan/ton, with a week - on - week expansion of [missing value] yuan/ton. The C32S yarn price index was [missing value] yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of [missing value] yuan/ton; the closing price of the Zhengzhou yarn main contract was [missing value] yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of [missing value] yuan/ton; the basis between the two was [missing value] yuan/ton, with a week - on - week expansion of [missing value] yuan/ton [34][35]. - **Imported Cotton and Yarn Prices**: From September 18 to September 25, the prices of imported cotton and yarn decreased. For example, the price of Indian C32S imported yarn decreased from 21,330 yuan/ton to 21,240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton [10]. - **Domestic and Foreign Price Differences**: As of Thursday this week, the price difference between the domestic 328 cotton price index and the imported cotton port delivery price index under the sliding - scale duty was [missing value] yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of [missing value] yuan/ton; the price difference with the imported cotton port delivery price under the 1% tariff was [missing value] yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of [missing value] yuan/ton. The price difference between the C32S yarn price index and the port delivery price was [missing value] yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of [missing value] yuan/ton [37]. - **Futures Spread and Processing Profit**: As of Thursday this week, on the futures market, the spread between the Zhengzhou yarn main contract and the Zhengzhou cotton main contract was 6,250 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week expansion of 250 yuan/ton; the immediate theoretical processing profit of 32 - count pure - cotton yarn was - 1,675 yuan/ton, and the loss amplitude increased by 105 yuan/ton week - on - week [39]. 5. Warehouse Receipts - As of Thursday this week, the sum of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 3,595 sheets; the sum of Zhengzhou yarn warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 0 sheets [45].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The report analyzes the market conditions of various futures varieties on September 19, 2025, including stock index futures, coke, coking coal, Zhengzhou sugar, rubber, soybean meal, live pigs, palm oil, Shanghai copper, iron ore, asphalt, log, cotton, steel, alumina, and Shanghai aluminum, and predicts their future trends [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8] Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On September 19, the three major A-share indexes fluctuated and sorted. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.30% to 3,820.09 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.04% to 13,070.86 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.16% to 3,091.00 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 2.3238 trillion yuan, a significant decrease of 811.3 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index fluctuated narrowly, closing at 4,501.92, a month-on-month increase of 3.81 [1] Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: The weighted index fluctuated strongly on September 19, closing at 1,754.1, a month-on-month increase of 15.9. There is still an expectation of a third round of price cuts in the coking industry, but due to low profits, some coking plants have proposed a first-round price increase, intensifying the game. The overall coke inventory has increased, and the purchasing willingness of traders is average. Due to the high market expectation of coking coal overproduction inspection and "anti-involution," there is a certain expectation of an increase in coke costs, and the price mainly follows the rise of coking coal [1] - Coking coal: The price is relatively strong due to the high market expectation of overproduction inspection and "anti-involution." The output of coking coal mines has increased slightly, the spot auction transactions have weakened, the transaction price has followed the decline of the disk, and the terminal inventory has decreased slightly. The total inventory of coking coal has increased month-on-month, the production-end inventory has decreased slightly, the short-term shutdown of coking coal has basically recovered, the impact duration is short, and the impact on inventory is small [1][2] Zhengzhou Sugar - Due to the large short-term decline and the influence of technical factors, the US sugar stopped falling and rebounded slightly last Friday. Affected by the large short-term decline and the rebound of the US sugar, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract fluctuated and sorted slightly higher in the night session last Friday. A commodity research report shows that the estimated beet output of the EU 27 and the UK in the 2025/26 season remains at 113.6 million tons. Traders and government officials said that India's sugar exports are expected to be less than 800,000 tons this year, failing to meet the quota of 1 million tons, as the increase in Brazilian supply has pulled down global sugar prices and affected India's sugar exports [2] Rubber - Due to the large short-term decline and the influence of technical factors, Shanghai rubber fluctuated and sorted slightly higher last Friday. As of September 19, the inventory of natural rubber in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 196,824 tons, a month-on-month increase of 4,876 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts were 154,920 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3,180 tons. The inventory of No. 20 rubber was 49,695 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts were 44,553 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1,411 tons [2] Soybean Meal - International market: On September 19, CBOT soybean futures were weak. The US soybean has entered the initial stage of harvesting. Given the dry weather in the US soybean producing areas and the decline in crop quality, the market expects the US Department of Agriculture to lower the US soybean yield in next month's report. Brazil's National Commodity Supply Company released its first forecast for the 2025/26 crop year, expecting soybean production to increase by 3.6% compared with the previous year [3] - Domestic market: On September 19, the main contract of soybean meal M2601 closed at 3,014 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.7%. At present, the number of imported soybeans in China is large, the soybean supply is sufficient, the oil mills maintain a high operating level, the pressing volume remains high, and the soybean meal inventory continues to rise. As of last week, the soybean pressing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.36 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory was 1.15 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 20,000 tons. In the short term, the inventory pressure of soybeans and soybean meal is still large. Due to the loose supply and the increasing supply pressure after the start of the US soybean harvest, the price of soybean meal fluctuates weakly. In the future, attention should be paid to the progress of Sino-US trade negotiations and the changes in soybean arrival volume [3][4] Live Pigs - On September 19, the main contract of live pigs LH2511 closed at 12,825 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.04%. The enthusiasm of farmers to sell pigs is high, the supply of standard pigs in September has increased significantly, and the production capacity is in the stage of concentrated release. The slaughter rhythm of large-scale pig farms has accelerated, and the willingness of small and medium-sized pig farms to sell pigs has also increased significantly. The overall market supply is sufficient. Although the consumer demand has shown a slow recovery recently, the start-up rate of slaughterhouses has been briefly boosted by the start of the school season and the pre-holiday stocking, but the high temperature in the south has suppressed the consumption of fresh meat, and the sales of white-striped pigs are not smooth. The demand side is still difficult to strongly support the market in the short term. In the short term, the futures price of live pigs may maintain a weak and volatile trend due to the loose supply and limited demand growth. In the future, attention should be paid to the slaughter rhythm of live pigs and the actual effect of production capacity regulation policies [4] Palm Oil - On Friday night, the palm oil futures continued to maintain a slight consolidation state, and the current price range has reached the lower edge of the overall high range. At the close, the K-line of the main contract P2601 closed with a small doji with upper and lower shadows. The highest price was 9,336, the lowest price was 9,286, and the closing price was 9,306, a decrease of 0.11% from the Friday daytime close. High-frequency data: According to the data of the shipping survey agency ITS, the export volume of palm oil in Malaysia from September 1 to 20 was 1,010,032 tons, an increase of 8.7% compared with the export volume of 929,051 tons in the same period last month [5] Shanghai Copper - After the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, the policy trend is attracting attention, and the US dollar index has fluctuated sharply. The social inventory of Shanghai copper has accumulated for three consecutive weeks. The tight supply of raw materials is difficult to significantly improve in the short term, which will support copper prices to a certain extent. However, attention should be paid to the production situation of smelters. On the demand side, the pre-holiday stocking demand may boost copper prices to a certain extent, but the high price still suppresses demand, and the upward space of copper prices may be limited [5] Iron Ore - On September 19, the main contract of iron ore 2601 fluctuated and closed up, with an increase of 0.81%, and the closing price was 807.5 yuan. Last week, the global iron ore shipping volume rebounded month-on-month, the arrival volume continued to decline, the port inventory decreased, the steel mills have a demand for replenishment before the festival, and the molten iron output continued to increase slightly at a high level. In the short term, the iron ore price is in a volatile trend [5] Asphalt - On September 19, the main contract of asphalt 2511 fluctuated and closed down, with a decrease of 0.44%, and the closing price was 3,421 yuan. Last week, the capacity utilization rate of asphalt decreased slightly, the inventory continued to decline, and the shipment volume increased. The good weather in the north supports the rush-demand, but the increased rainfall in some southern regions still hinders the demand. In the short term, the asphalt price will mainly fluctuate [6] Log - On Friday, the opening price was 800, the lowest price was 800, the highest price was 808, the closing price was 805, and the daily position was reduced by 285 lots. The futures price rebounded above the 10-day moving average of 803. Pay attention to the support at the 800 mark and the pressure at 813. On September 19, the spot market price of 3.9-meter medium-A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot market price of 4-meter medium-A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 770 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day. Customs data on the 18th showed that the log import volume in August was 2.11 million cubic meters, a year-on-year decrease of 24%. There is no major contradiction in the supply and demand relationship. There is a game between strong expectations and weak reality, and the spot transactions are weak. Pay attention to the support of the spot price in the peak season, import data, inventory changes, and macro expectations and market sentiment on the price [6] Cotton - On Friday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,735 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 206 lots compared with the previous trading day. The estimated output of Xinjiang cotton in the 2025/2026 season is 6.91 million tons, a record high [6] Steel - Judging from the performance in the two weeks after the military parade, the steel demand trend is in line with the seasonality. This week, the molten iron output remains at a high level, but as the weather gradually cools down, the steel demand may recover to a certain extent next week, and the steel will enter the inventory inflection point. Recently, there has been a lot of market news, and the valuation of the black sector is low due to the previous decline. With the arrival of the peak season, the steel demand will continue to improve. Considering the pre-National Day replenishment, the black sector is supported. If the downstream demand recovers beyond expectations from late September to October, the steel price may rise further. In the future, attention should be paid to the peak season demand, coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [7] Alumina - Fundamental raw materials: The rainy season in Guinea continues to affect shipments, and the subsequent domestic bauxite imports are expected to decrease, and the quotation is relatively firm. Supply: Some previously overhauled alumina production capacities have gradually resumed production, and the operating rate has rebounded slightly. Although the supply of bauxite is expected to be tight, the port inventory of raw materials is still at a medium to high level, so the overall supply is still sufficient, and there is no large-scale production reduction. The supply volume has maintained a slight increase. Demand: The capacity replacement project in the domestic electrolytic aluminum industry has promoted a slight increase in the demand for alumina, but due to the upper limit of the aluminum industry, the demand boost is less than the supply growth. Overall, the current fundamentals of alumina are still in a state of oversupply, and the inventory has accumulated slightly [7] Shanghai Aluminum - Supply: The supply of raw material alumina is relatively sufficient, and the quotation has declined. Although the spot price of electrolytic aluminum has also回调 after the interest rate cut, the smelting profit can still be maintained at a good level due to the reduction of raw material costs, and the production enthusiasm is high. In addition, the completion of some capacity replacement projects in the electrolytic aluminum industry has led to a slight increase in the industry's production capacity, and the overall production capacity is gradually approaching the upper limit of the industry. Demand: The realization of the interest rate cut expectation has led to a slight回调 in the aluminum price. Coupled with the traditional consumption peak season and the pre-holiday stocking demand, the purchasing willingness of downstream aluminum processing enterprises has increased. Overall, the fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum may be in a stage of stable supply and increased demand [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the resilience of mineral products despite potential disruptions from geopolitical tensions and trade policies, highlighting key factors that will influence the market through 2026. Group 1: Geopolitical and Trade Dynamics - The Iran/Israel conflict could significantly impact energy prices and the broader commodity complex, with the Strait of Hormuz being crucial for global oil and gas supply [1][6][7] - The U.S.-China trade dispute has previously negatively affected most mineral products, but current raw material trends are independent due to China's stimulus policies [1][3] - European stimulus plans, particularly Germany's focus on large project spending, may accelerate by 2026 [1][2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - Supply constraints are supporting prices for copper, aluminum, silver, and platinum [2][11] - The U.S. budget resolution will be critical for U.S. interest rates, the dollar, and gold prices, with potential for gold to reach $4,000 per ounce if high deficits coincide with increased volatility [2][5][11] - A decline in London Metal Exchange inventories raises the risk of copper short squeezes in the short term [3][11] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Price Projections - Despite macroeconomic volatility, metals are showing resilience, supported by strong demand from China and potential European recovery [6][11] - The article suggests that gold needs a trigger, such as rising U.S. budget deficits and increased volatility, to attract buyers back to the market [4][5][11] - Platinum prices are expected to rise due to supply constraints and recovering demand from jewelry and automotive sectors [5][11]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Daily Report [2] - Report Date: June 23, 2024 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 contract closed at 13,500, down 15; trading volume was 35,530 lots, an increase of 5,786 lots; open interest was 154,498 lots, an increase of 58 lots [3] - CF05 contract closed at 13,470, down 25; trading volume was 1,183 lots, an increase of 332 lots; open interest was 5,608 lots, an increase of 492 lots [3] - CF09 contract closed at 13,465, down 30; trading volume was 184,987 lots, an increase of 38,955 lots; open interest was 515,356 lots, a decrease of 9,626 lots [3] - CY01 contract closed at 19,770, unchanged; trading volume was 0 lots; open interest was 37 lots, unchanged [3] - CY05 contract closed at 18,550, unchanged; trading volume was 0 lots; open interest was 0 lots [3] - CY09 contract closed at 19,700, down 35; trading volume was 5,219 lots, a decrease of 931 lots; open interest was 21,159 lots, a decrease of 498 lots [3] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B was 14,894 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; CY IndexC32S was 20,300 yuan/ton, down 770 yuan [3] - Cot A was 77.55 cents/pound, unchanged; FCY IndexC33S was 21,892 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan [3] - (FC Index):M: arrival price was 75.82 cents/pound, unchanged; Indian S - 6 was 54,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Polyester staple fiber was 7,450 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; pure polyester yarn T32S was 11,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Viscose staple fiber was 12,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; viscose yarn R30S was 17,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Spread - Cotton inter - period spreads: 1 - 5 spread was 30, up 10; 5 - 9 spread was 5, up 5; 9 - 1 spread was - 35, down 15 [3] - Cotton yarn inter - period spreads: 1 - 5 spread was 1,220, unchanged; 5 - 9 spread was - 1,150, up 35; 9 - 1 spread was - 70, down 35 [3] - Cross - variety spreads: CY01 - CF01 was 6,270, up 15; CY05 - CF05 was 5,080, up 25; CY09 - CF09 was 6,235, down 5 [3] - Domestic - foreign spreads: 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1,154, up 15; sliding - scale tariff domestic - foreign cotton spread was 444, up 15; domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 1,592, down 776 [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of the week ending June 12, 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly signing was 18,900 tons, a weekly increase of 38%, a 23% decrease from the four - week average, and a 56% year - on - year decrease; 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly signing was 62,300 tons, a 146% year - on - year increase [6] - 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly shipments were 46,400 tons, a 13% week - on - week decrease, a 24% decrease from the four - week average, and a 3% year - on - year increase [6] - According to CONAB's June 2024/25 production forecast, Brazil's cotton production is expected to be 3.913 million tons, an increase of 8,000 tons from the previous month [6] - Cotton spot trading was mostly sluggish, with strong market wait - and - see sentiment, and the overall basis remained stable. Downstream acceptance of high basis was not high [7] Trading Logic - Uncertainties in Sino - US trade relations and China's trade policies with other countries bring uncertainties to cotton trends. Currently, China's commercial cotton inventory is at a low level. If the de - stocking rate remains the same, the market may trade on the tight supply of cotton before the new cotton is listed, and cotton prices may fluctuate slightly stronger [8] - Recent international changes are significant. Rising crude oil prices may drive up the prices of all commodities. Iran's Parliamentary National Security and Foreign Policy Commission member Kousari said that the Iranian Parliament has concluded that the Strait of Hormuz should be closed, but the final decision lies with the Iranian Supreme National Security Council [8] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: US cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [9] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [9] - Options: Wait and see [9] Cotton Yarn Industry News - The all - cotton fabric market remained sluggish. Weaving mills reported little change in recent orders, mainly small and scattered orders. Overall, production was cut, and the operating rate was low. The transaction price of grey cloth was negotiated according to order volume. Most weaving mills focused on optimizing cash flow [9] - The pure - cotton yarn market remained sluggish. Spinning mills' prices remained stable, and their willingness to reduce prices for sales decreased significantly. The phenomenon of production restrictions and shutdowns among inland spinning mills increased significantly, and the operating rate continued to decline [9] Group 4: Options Option Data - On June 23, 2025, the closing price of CF509C13400.CZC was 222.00, down 23.2%; the closing price of CF509P12600.CZC was 24.00, down 31.4%; the closing price of CF509P12200.CZC was 16.00, up 14.3% [11] - The 120 - day HV of cotton was 10.2915, with slightly lower volatility than the previous day. The implied volatility of CF509 - C - 13400 was 9%, CF509 - P - 12600 was 12.3%, and CF509 - P - 12200 was 15.4% [11] Option Strategies - The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.9702, and the volume PCR of the main contract was 0.6577. The trading volumes of both call and put options increased today [12] - Option strategy: Wait and see [13] Group 5: Related Attachments - Figures include 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton price spread, cotton January basis, cotton May basis, cotton September basis, CY05 - CF05 spread, CY01 - CF01 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, and CF5 - 9 spread [14][21][26]

Group 1 - The recent decline in waste battery prices has led to a slight recovery in the profitability of recycled lead enterprises, although they still operate at a loss, with losses narrowing from approximately 700 yuan/ton to about 500 yuan/ton [3][4] - The decrease in social inventory of lead ingots is primarily due to weak downstream demand, with battery demand entering a low season and terminal distributors' battery inventories at seasonal highs [5][6] - The short-term outlook for lead prices remains under pressure due to weak demand, but medium-term expectations suggest limited downside potential, supported by the need for battery companies to replenish stocks [6] Group 2 - The recent drop in waste battery prices is attributed to increased selling pressure from recyclers ahead of the May Day holiday, despite prices remaining at 10,300 yuan/ton, leading to continued losses for recycled lead enterprises [4] - The decline in social inventory of lead ingots is mainly a result of reduced production from recycled lead companies, with expectations of a rebound in inventory post-holiday due to weak consumption [5][6] - The lead market is characterized by weak supply and demand dynamics, with expectations of price fluctuations within the range of 16,500 to 17,300 yuan for Shanghai lead and 1,920 to 2,050 USD for London lead [6]