制冷剂配额约束下供给刚性，看好制冷剂景气周期 2026年三代制冷剂生产配额总量为797844吨，内用配额394082吨，相较于2025年，2026年三代制冷剂生 产配额总量增加5962吨，内用配额增加4502吨。2026年生产配额增量主要是R32增加1171吨，R134a增 加3242吨，R245fa增加2918吨；配额减少的有R143a减少1255吨、R227ea减少517吨以及R152a减少63 吨。 三代制冷剂价格延续涨势 根据百川盈孚，截止2025年12月12日，主流三代制冷剂及混配品种R134a/R125/R32/R410价格为 57500/45500/62500/54000元/吨，周涨幅+1.77%/+1.11%/0.00%/+0.93%，月涨幅 +6.48%/+1.11%/+0.00%/+0.93%，季涨幅+11.65%/+1.11%/+2.46%/+6.93%，年涨幅 +43.75%/+19.74%/+56.25%/+42.11%。 制冷需求延续增长，根据国家统计局，2025年1-10月国内空调产量累计值23034万台，同比+3.00%，出 口延续高基数，出口数量5243万台，同比-1.10% ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [5] Core Viewpoints - The production quota for third-generation refrigerants in 2026 is expected to remain relatively stable compared to 2025, with a total production quota of 797,844 tons, an increase of 5,962 tons from 2025. The internal use quota will increase by 4,502 tons [8] - The prices of third-generation refrigerants continue to rise, with significant annual increases observed, such as R134a increasing by 43.75% year-on-year [8] - The supply of refrigerants is expected to remain rigid due to quota constraints, while demand continues to grow, driven by increasing production of air conditioning units and automobiles [8] Summary by Sections Production Quota - The total production quota for third-generation refrigerants in 2026 is 797,844 tons, with internal use quota at 394,082 tons. The main increases are in R134a (3,242 tons) and R245fa (2,918 tons), while R143a, R227ea, and R152a see reductions [8] Price Trends - As of December 12, 2025, the prices for major third-generation refrigerants are as follows: R134a at 57,500 CNY/ton, R125 at 45,500 CNY/ton, R32 at 62,500 CNY/ton, and R410 at 54,000 CNY/ton, with notable monthly and annual growth rates [8] Demand and Supply Dynamics - Domestic air conditioning production from January to October 2025 reached 23,034 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3.00%. The automotive sector also saw a production increase of 11.00% during the same period, indicating a robust demand for refrigerants [8]

国信证券近日发布2026年度制冷剂配额核发公示点评：具体配额上，2026年三代制冷剂生产配额总量为 79.78万吨，相较2025年初生产配额增长5963吨。R32、R125、R134a相比2025年初配额有所增加， R143a、R152a、R227ea相比2025年初有所减少。 以下为研究报告摘要： 事项： 2025年12月9日，生态环境部发布《关于2026年度消耗臭氧层物质和氢氟碳化物生产、使用和进口配额 核发情况的公示》，生态环境部受理了38家企业提交的2026年度二代制冷剂生产、使用配额申请，受理 了65家企业提交的2026年度三代制冷剂生产、进口配额申请，并对最终各企业生产、进口二代、三代制 冷剂配额进行了公示。其中二代制冷剂落实年度履约淘汰任务，R22生产配额削减了3005吨，R141b配 额清零；三代制冷剂生产和使用总量控制目标保持在基线值，维持了2025年的生产配额总量为18.53亿 吨CO2、内用生产配额总量为8.95亿吨CO2、进口配额总量为0.1亿吨CO2。具体配额上，2026年三代制 冷剂生产配额总量为79.78万吨，相较2025年初生产配额增长5963吨。R32、R125、R134a相 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The announcement of the 2026 refrigerant quota indicates a long-term constraint on the supply side of both second and third-generation refrigerants, suggesting a continuation of product prosperity in the refrigerant market [3][5] - For second-generation refrigerants, the production and usage in 2026 will be reduced by 71.5% and 76.1% from the baseline, respectively, with R22 production quota reduced by 3,005 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.02% [3][6] - The total production quota for third-generation refrigerants in 2026 is set at 797,800 tons, an increase of 5,963 tons compared to the beginning of 2025, with specific increases in R32, R125, and R134a quotas [2][3][7] - The report emphasizes that the tightening of refrigerant quotas is a long-term trend, and it is expected that the main third-generation refrigerants will maintain a tight supply-demand balance in 2026, with significant price upside potential [3][20] Summary by Sections Second-Generation Refrigerants - The production quota for second-generation refrigerants in 2026 is 151,400 tons, a decrease of 12,100 tons from 2025, with R22 production quota at 146,100 tons, down 3,005 tons year-on-year [6][3] - The internal usage quota for R22 is 77,900 tons, reflecting a year-on-year reduction of 3.60% [6] Third-Generation Refrigerants - The total production quota for third-generation refrigerants is 797,800 tons, with an internal usage quota of 394,100 tons, both showing increases from 2025 [7][3] - Specific increases in production quotas include R32 at 281,500 tons, R134a at 211,500 tons, and R125 at 167,600 tons, while R143a, R152a, and R227ea show slight decreases [7][3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading fluorochemical companies with complete industrial chains, advanced technology, and strong quota positions, such as Juhua Co., Ltd., Sanmei Co., Ltd., and Dongyue Group [20][21]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the financial performance of Shandong Lianchuang Industrial Development Group Co., Ltd. for the first half of 2025, showing significant improvements in revenue and net profit compared to the same period last year, despite challenges in the industry [1][5]. Financial Performance - Operating revenue for the reporting period reached approximately 443.21 million yuan, an increase of 12.83% compared to 392.82 million yuan in the same period last year [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately 11.70 million yuan, representing a 191.96% increase from a loss of 12.72 million yuan in the previous year [1]. - The net cash flow from operating activities improved significantly to approximately 15.92 million yuan, up 186.74% from a negative cash flow of 18.36 million yuan [1]. - Basic and diluted earnings per share were both 0.0110 yuan, a 195.65% increase from a loss of 0.0115 yuan per share in the previous year [1]. Asset and Equity Status - Total assets at the end of the reporting period were approximately 2.50 billion yuan, while net assets attributable to shareholders decreased by 1.91% to approximately 1.92 billion yuan [2]. - The weighted average return on net assets was 0.60%, an increase from a negative 0.64% in the previous year [1]. Shareholder Information - The largest shareholder, Li Hongguo, holds 12.14% of the shares, with a total of 129,721,810 shares, of which some are pledged [2][3]. - The company has not experienced any changes in its controlling shareholder or actual controller during the reporting period [3]. Important Events - The company has decided to terminate the investment in a project to build an annual production capacity of 8,000 tons of end amino polyether due to market conditions and increased competition [3][5]. - The company is currently involved in legal proceedings to recover shares and cash, having retrieved approximately 98.54 million shares valued at 51.27 million yuan and 22.47 million yuan in cash [4][5]. - The company received an administrative penalty notice from the China Securities Regulatory Commission, leading to a risk warning for its stock starting March 25, 2025 [5][6].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the refrigerant industry, specifically tracking the prices of various refrigerants as of May 11, 2025 Price Data - R22 is priced at 36,000 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous week [1] - R32 is priced at 49,000 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous week [2] - R125 is priced at 45,000 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous week [3] - R134a is priced at 47,500 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous week [4] - R152a is priced at 27,000 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous week [5] - R143a is priced at 46,000 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous week [6] - R410a is priced at 48,000 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous week [7] Additional Insights - All tracked refrigerant prices remained stable with a 0% change compared to the previous week, indicating a period of price stability in the refrigerant market [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the fluorochemical industry [8][9]. Core Insights - The fluorochemical industry is expected to benefit from the upcoming peak season for refrigerants driven by summer heat, with active trading in a low inventory context [2][8]. - The report highlights a significant increase in refrigerant prices, with R32 reaching 48,000 yuan/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1,000 yuan/ton [2][24]. - The implementation of the Montreal Protocol's national plan is expected to tighten supply and enhance the long-term outlook for refrigerant prices, particularly for R22 and R32 [4][56]. Summary by Sections 1. April Fluorochemical Industry Performance - As of April 28, 2025, the fluorochemical index stood at 1,232.89 points, down 2.60% from March, outperforming the Shenwan Chemical Index by 0.63 percentage points [1][16]. 2. April Refrigerant Market Review 2.1 Refrigerant Price and Spread Performance - Prices for refrigerants have shown an upward trend, with R32 and R410a experiencing significant month-on-month increases of 14% and 9% respectively in March [22][24]. - The report notes that R22 prices are stable at 36,000 yuan/ton, while R134a remains at 47,000 yuan/ton [24]. 2.2 Refrigerant Export Data Tracking - In Q1 2025, R32 exports increased by 5.3% year-on-year, while R22 exports decreased by 38.4% [31]. - March saw a significant rebound in export volumes, with R22 and R32 experiencing month-on-month growth of 165% and 150% respectively [31][32]. 2.3 Major Refrigerant Operating Rates and Production Data Tracking - The report indicates that production quotas for R22 have been reduced by 28% compared to 2024, reflecting tighter supply constraints [58]. 3. Implementation of the Montreal Protocol National Plan - The national plan aims to reduce HCFCs production and usage by 67.5% and 73.2% respectively by 2025, with a complete phase-out by 2030 [4][56]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing commitment to reducing HFCs, with a target of a 10% reduction by 2029 [4][56]. 4. Air Conditioning/Automobile/Refrigerator Production and Export Data Tracking 4.1 Air Conditioning - The report notes a continuous year-on-year increase in air conditioning production for Q2 2025, with domestic production expected to rise significantly [5][65]. 5. Key Company Profit Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Key companies such as Juhua Co., Dongyue Group, and Sanmei Co. are highlighted as having strong profit growth prospects, with Juhua Co. expected to achieve a net profit of 1.52 yuan per share in 2025 [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2]. Core Viewpoints - The commercialization of humanoid robots is accelerating, with a focus on four major investment themes related to the chemical sector. In Q1 2025, over 35 companies launched new humanoid robot products, with more than 21 from China. The market for humanoid robots is expected to reach 8.239 billion yuan, accounting for about 50% of the global market by 2025 [5][28]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The basic chemical industry index increased by 2.7% from April 18 to April 25, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.1 percentage points and the ChiNext Index by 1.0 percentage points. Year-to-date, the basic chemical industry index has risen by 1.7%, surpassing the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.4 percentage points and the ChiNext Index by 10.8 percentage points [3][16]. Investment Themes 1. **Equity Investment Strategy**: The humanoid robot industry is projected to produce over 10,000 units by 2025, with significant market potential. Chemical companies can enhance their technological attributes through early-stage equity investments [5][28]. 2. **Polymer Materials**: Humanoid robots require various polymer materials, with modified plastics being a key solution for lightweight components. The demand for PEEK is expected to grow significantly, with a projected CAGR of 16.8% from 2022 to 2027 [5][29]. 3. **Tendon Materials**: Tendon systems are crucial for humanoid robots, with UHMWPE and carbon fiber being ideal materials due to their superior properties. Companies like Tongyi Zhong and Nanshan Zhishang are leading in UHMWPE production [5][6]. 4. **Electronic Skin Materials**: The electronic skin market is expected to grow from 6.3 billion USD in 2024 to 30 billion USD by 2034, with companies like Fulei New Materials and Hanwei Technology actively developing flexible sensor materials [5][6]. Product Price Changes - The report lists significant price changes for chemical products, with the top gainers including glyphosate (+16.3%) and liquid nitrogen (+13.7%). Conversely, coal tar saw a decline of 11.8% [5]. Investment Recommendations - Core assets in the chemical sector are entering a long-term value zone, with companies like Baofeng Energy and Wanhua Chemical recommended for investment. Additionally, sectors facing supply constraints, such as vitamins and refrigerants, are highlighted for their potential price elasticity [5][14][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2]. Core Viewpoints - The commercialization of humanoid robots is accelerating, with a focus on four major investment themes related to the chemical sector. In Q1 2025, over 35 companies launched new humanoid robot products, with more than 21 from China. The market for humanoid robots is expected to reach 8.239 billion yuan, accounting for about 50% of the global market by 2025 [5][28]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The basic chemical industry index increased by 2.7% from April 18 to April 25, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.1 percentage points and the ChiNext Index by 1.0 percentage points. Year-to-date, the basic chemical industry index has risen by 1.7%, surpassing the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.4 percentage points and the ChiNext Index by 10.8 percentage points [3][16]. Investment Themes 1. **Equity Investment Strategy**: The humanoid robot industry is projected to produce over 10,000 units by 2025, with significant market potential. Chemical companies can enhance their technological attributes through early-stage equity investments [5][28]. 2. **Polymer Materials**: Humanoid robots require various polymer materials, with modified plastics being a key solution for lightweight components. The demand for PEEK is expected to grow significantly, with a projected CAGR of 16.8% from 2022 to 2027 [5][29]. 3. **Tendon Materials**: Tendon systems are crucial for humanoid robots, with UHMWPE and carbon fiber being ideal materials due to their superior properties. Companies like Tongyi Zhong and Nanshan Zhishang are leading in UHMWPE production [6][29]. 4. **Electronic Skin Materials**: The electronic skin market is expected to grow from 6.3 billion USD in 2024 to 30 billion USD by 2034, with companies like Fulei New Materials and Hanwei Technology actively developing flexible sensor materials [5][29]. Product Price Changes - The report lists significant price changes for chemical products, with the top gainers including glyphosate (+16.3%) and liquid nitrogen (+13.7%). Conversely, coal tar saw a decline of 11.8% [5][6]. Investment Recommendations - Core assets in the chemical sector are entering a long-term value zone, with companies like Baofeng Energy and Wanhua Chemical recommended for investment. Additionally, sectors facing supply constraints, such as vitamins and refrigerants, are highlighted for their potential price elasticity [5][14].