开源证券主要观点如下： 各家对10%→30%切换比例的变化非常克制、有序 华谊集团（600623）孙公司万豪公司(主要生产F152a，F142b，FKM和PVDF等)停产。据公司公告，公 司涂料级PVDF国内市场占有率超过65%，并在锂电级PVDF领域成为全球主要生产商之一。据氟务在线 资讯，此次停产对市场影响较为显著的产品主要为PVDF，当前已有多家企业上调报价，最高报价已达 5.6万元/吨，实际成交仍有待验证。 氟化工周行情：萤石价格走势承压；制冷剂延续向上趋势萤石 据百川盈孚，截至12月12日，萤石97湿粉市场均价3,290元/吨，较上周下跌0.87%；12月均价(截至12月 12日)3,312元/吨，同比下跌9.83%；2025年(截至12月12日)均价3,482元/吨，较2024年均价下跌1.78%。 开源证券发布研报称，2026年制冷剂配额下发，氟化工行情延续，R32、R134a、R125、R143a、 R227ea等2026年配额与2025年下发配额变化有限，相比2025年调整后配额有所收缩。另一方面，PVDF 头部企业停产，当前已有多家企业上调报价，最高报价已达5.6万元/吨，实际成交仍有待验 ...

Core Insights - The report from Guosen Securities indicates a significant increase in long-term contract prices for mainstream refrigerants in Q4, with R32 rising to 60,200 CNY/ton, an increase of 9,600 CNY/ton or 18.97%, and R410A increasing to 53,200 CNY/ton, up by 3,600 CNY/ton or 7.26% [1][2] Price Trends - R32 shows strong performance with increasing foreign trade demand due to the release of domestic air conditioning companies' overseas capacity and the need for environmentally friendly refrigerants, leading to a tight market and higher pricing [3] - The external trade price for R32 has been raised to 62,000 CNY/ton, while domestic prices have increased to a range of 61,000-63,000 CNY/ton [3] - R134a prices have also risen, with the price range now at 53,000-54,000 CNY/ton due to ongoing quota consumption [3] Production and Export Trends - According to industry reports, air conditioning production for domestic sales is expected to grow in the first half of 2025, with strong performance anticipated due to seasonal demand and new policies [4] - However, there is a projected decline in production for household air conditioners in September and October 2025, influenced by high base effects from the previous year and reduced production expectations [4] - Export data shows a cumulative export of 47.81 million units from January to August 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.0%, although a downward trend has been observed since May [4] Monthly Production Adjustments - Production forecasts for October to December 2025 indicate a decrease in production, with October's production at 5.565 million units, down 11.5% year-on-year, but with adjustments showing an increase from previous predictions [5] - Export production for October is projected at 596,000 units, down 9.4% year-on-year, with improvements in the decline rate for November and December [5] Demand Drivers - The development of AI technology and the shift towards liquid cooling solutions in data centers are expected to drive demand for upstream fluorinated liquids and refrigerants, as traditional cooling methods reach their limits [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the fluorochemical industry [5][9]. Core Views - The fluorochemical industry is experiencing a significant price increase in refrigerants, driven by supply constraints and rising demand from both domestic and international markets [2][5][8]. - The transition to liquid cooling technologies in data centers is expected to boost the demand for fluorinated liquids and refrigerants, indicating a positive outlook for companies involved in this sector [3][6][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - As of September 30, the fluorochemical index rose by 7.61% compared to the end of August, outperforming major indices such as the Shanghai Composite and the CSI 300 [1][16]. 2. Refrigerant Market Review - The long-term contract prices for R32 and R410A have increased by 18.97% and 7.26% respectively in Q4, reflecting a strong market sentiment [1][23]. - R32's external trade demand is growing due to environmental regulations, with prices reaching 62,000 CNY/ton for exports and 61,000-63,000 CNY/ton for domestic sales [2][25]. 3. Production and Export Data - Domestic air conditioning production is expected to adjust upwards in Q4 2025, despite a decline in September-October due to high inventory levels from the previous year [3][4]. - The export of refrigerants like R32 has shown a 19% increase year-on-year, while R22 exports have decreased by 33% due to quota reductions [33][4]. 4. Liquid Cooling Demand - The shift towards liquid cooling in data centers is anticipated to significantly increase the demand for fluorinated liquids, with the market expected to exceed 100 billion CNY by 2027 [6][67]. - Companies such as Juhua Co., Dongyue Group, and Sanmei Co. are highlighted as key players benefiting from this trend [3][69]. 5. Regulatory Environment - China's commitment to the Montreal Protocol includes significant reductions in HCFCs and HFCs, which will impact the production quotas for refrigerants like R22 and R32 [70][73]. - The report emphasizes that the tightening of refrigerant quotas will support long-term price increases and profitability for leading companies in the fluorochemical sector [8][73].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong performance relative to the market [7]. Core Insights - The company reported a strong performance in its 2025 half-year results, with revenue of 7.12 billion yuan (up 18% year-on-year) and a net profit of 613 million yuan (up 171% year-on-year) [7]. - The profitability of refrigerants continues to improve, supported by a global franchise model, with significant price increases observed in Q3 [7]. - The company is advancing its integrated liquid cooling solutions and has launched its first humanoid robot, indicating diversification into new technology sectors [7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2024: 12.199 billion yuan - 2025E: 13.854 billion yuan - 2026E: 15.405 billion yuan - 2027E: 16.965 billion yuan - Net profit forecasts are: - 2025E: 1.415 billion yuan - 2026E: 1.782 billion yuan - 2027E: 2.137 billion yuan - The company’s EPS is projected to grow from 0.47 yuan in 2025 to 0.71 yuan in 2027 [3][9]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 21.1% in 2025 to 23.6% in 2027, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency [3]. Market Data - As of August 15, 2025, the company's closing price was 17.03 yuan, with a market capitalization of 51.117 billion yuan [4]. - The company has a price-to-earnings ratio projected to decrease from 36 in 2025 to 24 in 2027, indicating potential for value appreciation [3][4]. Company Developments - The company has established a joint venture with Zhongji Xuchuang to develop integrated liquid cooling solutions, enhancing its market position in this growing sector [7]. - The humanoid robot "Photon" was launched, with initial orders already secured, marking the company's entry into the robotics market [7]. - The company is expanding its production capabilities in laminated foil and capacitor sectors, which are expected to benefit from the growing demand in data centers and energy storage industries [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the fluorochemical industry [1][6][8] Core Views - The fluorochemical industry is expected to benefit from the implementation of long-term contracts for third-generation refrigerants, with a focus on supply-side constraints for certain products [1][6] - The demand for refrigerants is anticipated to grow due to national subsidy policies and increasing demand from emerging regions such as Southeast Asia, leading to significant growth in domestic air conditioning production and shipments [6][7] - The report highlights a potential supply-demand gap for second-generation refrigerants like R22 due to rapid supply contraction and support from the air conditioning repair market [6][7] Monthly Industry Performance - As of the end of June, the fluorochemical index rose by 6.23%, outperforming the Shenwan Chemical Index by 3.08 percentage points [2][15] - The Guosen Chemical Fluorochemical Price Index and Refrigerant Price Index reported increases of 0.17% and 1.90% respectively [2][17] Refrigerant Market Review - The prices of refrigerants are expected to continue rising in the third quarter, with R32 and R410A long-term contract prices set at 50,000 CNY/ton and 49,000 CNY/ton respectively, reflecting increases from the previous quarter [3][23] - The report forecasts stable price growth for mainstream products in the third quarter, with expected average prices for R32 at 53,000 CNY/ton and R134a at 49,000 CNY/ton [3][23] Domestic and Export Price Trends - Domestic prices for R22, R134a, R32, and R410A have shown upward trends, with R32 reaching 53,000 CNY/ton, an increase of 4,000 CNY/ton from the previous month [4][25] - Export prices for R32 and R134a are converging with domestic prices, indicating a tightening market [4][38] Production and Shipment Data - The overall production of air conditioners in the second quarter of 2025 showed a year-on-year increase, although July saw a slight decline due to demand being pulled forward [5][78] - The report indicates that air conditioning production is expected to maintain growth, supported by seasonal demand and policy incentives [5][78] Regulatory Environment - The report discusses China's compliance with the Montreal Protocol, with significant reductions in HCFCs and HFCs production and usage planned for 2025-2030 [68][69] - The tightening of refrigerant quotas is expected to create a long-term upward trend in prices for second and third-generation refrigerants [7][69] Key Company Profit Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Key companies such as Juhua Co., Dongyue Group, and Sanmei Co. are rated as "Outperform" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth for 2025 and 2026 [8]