国信证券主要观点如下： 主流制冷剂产品四季度长协价格落地 据卓创资讯，R32长协价格为6.02万元/吨，较三季度长协价格上涨9600元/吨，增幅18.97%；R410A长协 价格为5.32万元/吨，较三季度价格上涨3600元/吨，涨幅为7.26%。此外，据氟务在线，制冷剂大厂对外 报价或将由季度定价模式转为月度定价模式，制冷剂价格上涨到制冷剂企业业绩增长的传导将更加顺 畅。 R32、R134a报价持续上涨 国信证券发布研报称，据卓创资讯（301299），R32长协价格为6.02万元/吨，较三季度长协价格上涨 9600元/吨，增幅18.97%；R410A长协价格为5.32万元/吨，较三季度价格上涨3600元/吨，涨幅为 7.26%。R32表现强势，国内空调企业海外产能的持续释放以及海外市场对环保冷媒产品的更新需求影 响下，R32外贸需求持续增长，市场货源紧张加剧企业惜售心态，企业外贸流通报价已上调至6.2万元/ 吨，内贸报价则提升至6.1-6.3万元/吨。R134a配额持续消耗，报价区间提升至5.3-5.4万元/吨。 出口方面，根据海关数据显示，1-8月我国空调累计出口4781万台，同比+2.0%，出口市场自5 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年10月11日 氟化工行业：2025 年 9 月月度观察 优于大市 四季度制冷剂长协价格落地，制冷剂报价持续上涨 9 月氟化工行情回顾：截至 9 月末（9 月 30 日），上证综指报 3882.78 点， 较 8 月末（8 月 29 日）上涨 0.64%；沪深 300 指数报 4640.69 点，较 8 月末 上涨 3.20%；申万化工指数报 4113.74，较 8 月末上涨 1.22%；氟化工指数报 1809.47 点，较 8 月末上涨 7.61%。8 月氟化工行业指数跑赢申万化工指数 6.39pct,跑赢沪深 300 指数 4.41pct，跑赢上证综指 6.97pct。 主流制冷剂产品四季度长协价格落地。据卓创资讯，R32 长协价格为 6.02 万元/吨，较三季度长协价格上涨 9600 元/吨，增幅 18.97%；R410A 长协价 格为 5.32 万元/吨，较三季度价格上涨 3600 元/吨，涨幅为 7.26%。此外， 据氟务在线，制冷剂大厂对外报价或将由季度定价模式转为月度定价模式， 制冷剂价格上涨到制冷剂企业业绩增长的传导将更加顺畅。 R32、R134a 报价持续上涨。R3 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong performance relative to the market [7]. Core Insights - The company reported a strong performance in its 2025 half-year results, with revenue of 7.12 billion yuan (up 18% year-on-year) and a net profit of 613 million yuan (up 171% year-on-year) [7]. - The profitability of refrigerants continues to improve, supported by a global franchise model, with significant price increases observed in Q3 [7]. - The company is advancing its integrated liquid cooling solutions and has launched its first humanoid robot, indicating diversification into new technology sectors [7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2024: 12.199 billion yuan - 2025E: 13.854 billion yuan - 2026E: 15.405 billion yuan - 2027E: 16.965 billion yuan - Net profit forecasts are: - 2025E: 1.415 billion yuan - 2026E: 1.782 billion yuan - 2027E: 2.137 billion yuan - The company’s EPS is projected to grow from 0.47 yuan in 2025 to 0.71 yuan in 2027 [3][9]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 21.1% in 2025 to 23.6% in 2027, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency [3]. Market Data - As of August 15, 2025, the company's closing price was 17.03 yuan, with a market capitalization of 51.117 billion yuan [4]. - The company has a price-to-earnings ratio projected to decrease from 36 in 2025 to 24 in 2027, indicating potential for value appreciation [3][4]. Company Developments - The company has established a joint venture with Zhongji Xuchuang to develop integrated liquid cooling solutions, enhancing its market position in this growing sector [7]. - The humanoid robot "Photon" was launched, with initial orders already secured, marking the company's entry into the robotics market [7]. - The company is expanding its production capabilities in laminated foil and capacitor sectors, which are expected to benefit from the growing demand in data centers and energy storage industries [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the fluorochemical industry [1][6][8] Core Views - The fluorochemical industry is expected to benefit from the implementation of long-term contracts for third-generation refrigerants, with a focus on supply-side constraints for certain products [1][6] - The demand for refrigerants is anticipated to grow due to national subsidy policies and increasing demand from emerging regions such as Southeast Asia, leading to significant growth in domestic air conditioning production and shipments [6][7] - The report highlights a potential supply-demand gap for second-generation refrigerants like R22 due to rapid supply contraction and support from the air conditioning repair market [6][7] Monthly Industry Performance - As of the end of June, the fluorochemical index rose by 6.23%, outperforming the Shenwan Chemical Index by 3.08 percentage points [2][15] - The Guosen Chemical Fluorochemical Price Index and Refrigerant Price Index reported increases of 0.17% and 1.90% respectively [2][17] Refrigerant Market Review - The prices of refrigerants are expected to continue rising in the third quarter, with R32 and R410A long-term contract prices set at 50,000 CNY/ton and 49,000 CNY/ton respectively, reflecting increases from the previous quarter [3][23] - The report forecasts stable price growth for mainstream products in the third quarter, with expected average prices for R32 at 53,000 CNY/ton and R134a at 49,000 CNY/ton [3][23] Domestic and Export Price Trends - Domestic prices for R22, R134a, R32, and R410A have shown upward trends, with R32 reaching 53,000 CNY/ton, an increase of 4,000 CNY/ton from the previous month [4][25] - Export prices for R32 and R134a are converging with domestic prices, indicating a tightening market [4][38] Production and Shipment Data - The overall production of air conditioners in the second quarter of 2025 showed a year-on-year increase, although July saw a slight decline due to demand being pulled forward [5][78] - The report indicates that air conditioning production is expected to maintain growth, supported by seasonal demand and policy incentives [5][78] Regulatory Environment - The report discusses China's compliance with the Montreal Protocol, with significant reductions in HCFCs and HFCs production and usage planned for 2025-2030 [68][69] - The tightening of refrigerant quotas is expected to create a long-term upward trend in prices for second and third-generation refrigerants [7][69] Key Company Profit Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Key companies such as Juhua Co., Dongyue Group, and Sanmei Co. are rated as "Outperform" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth for 2025 and 2026 [8]