ab 21 December 2025 Global Research Road & Spak Key charts and some hot takes for 2026 This will be the final Road & Spak for 2025. From all of us on the UBS US autos team, happy holidays, and happy new year. Please be sure to check out our 2026 outlook for US autos. Below, please find 5 interesting charts from that report, and we add in some "hot takes" (unlikely but not completely implausible predictions). Figure 1: US autos overall outperform trough to trend. Both the D3 and US suppliers underperform in ...

Core Viewpoint - The approval of Elon Musk's $1 trillion compensation plan by over 75% of Tesla shareholders highlights the strong belief in Musk as the driving force behind Tesla's success and future growth [4][5][7]. Group 1: Compensation Plan Details - The $1 trillion compensation plan is tied to ambitious targets, including Tesla's market value and operational metrics, broken down into 12 milestones [9][11]. - Currently, Tesla's market value is approximately $1.5 trillion, with the plan requiring significant increases in market capitalization to unlock stock options for Musk [13]. - Operational goals include delivering 20 million vehicles and achieving 10 million active Full Self-Driving (FSD) subscriptions, alongside achieving an adjusted EBITDA of $400 billion [14][15][17]. Group 2: Current Performance and Challenges - Tesla's vehicle deliveries have faced declines, with a 13% drop in Q1 and a 13.5% drop in Q2, although Q3 showed improvement due to new model releases [21][22]. - The main models, Model 3 and Model Y, have not seen significant updates, raising concerns about competition from both domestic and international automakers [23][24]. - Tesla's reliance on vehicle sales alone is insufficient for growth, necessitating a shift towards becoming a technology company focused on AI and robotics [27]. Group 3: Future Growth Strategies - Musk aims to increase production to 2.6-2.7 million vehicles by the end of 2026, with a target of 4 million by 2027 and 5 million by 2028, representing a 50% growth from current levels [31][32]. - The introduction of the Cybertruck and the production of Robotaxis are seen as potential growth areas, with the latter expected to leverage FSD technology [49][50]. - The Optimus humanoid robot is positioned as a transformative product, with plans for mass production and a vision of integrating robots into everyday life [53][55]. Group 4: Supply Chain and Production Challenges - Tesla has faced battery supply issues in the past and is now focusing on developing its own battery production capabilities [59]. - The company is also exploring partnerships for chip manufacturing, indicating a proactive approach to mitigate supply chain risks [62][63].

Summary of Tesla Inc. (TSLA) Shareholder Meeting Key Takeaways Company Overview - **Company**: Tesla Inc. (TSLA) - **Event**: Annual shareholder meeting held on November 6, 2025 Key Points Discussed Shareholder Votes - The 2025 CEO incentive award received preliminary approval with over 75% of votes in favor [1][4] - The proposal for investment in xAI also received more votes in favor than against, but included several abstentions [1][2] Product Roadmap 1. **Optimus**: - Production of Optimus V3 is planned to start next year, with V4 in 2027 and V5 in 2028 [2][13] - A production line for 1 million units per year is expected in Fremont, with a 10 million unit per year line planned in Texas [13] - Long-term goal is to produce up to 100 million robots annually [13] - Cost of goods sold (COGS) for Optimus could be around $20,000 at scale [13][15] 2. **Full Self-Driving (FSD)**: - Tesla aims to allow texting while using FSD within 1-2 months [2][16] - Current FSD technology has recorded 4.92 million miles driven between accidents [16] - Partial approval for FSD in China, with full approval targeted for February/March next year [16] 3. **Robotaxi**: - Plans to remove safety observers in Austin by year-end [2][16] - Expansion into markets like Las Vegas, Phoenix, Dallas, Houston, and Miami is anticipated [16] 4. **Vehicle Production**: - Tesla aims for a 50% increase in vehicle production by the end of next year, targeting an annualized production rate of 2.6-2.7 million vehicles in 2026 [16] - Production of Tesla Semi is set to begin next year in Nevada [16] 5. **Semiconductors**: - Plans to manufacture AI5 chips at four locations, with potential collaboration with Intel [16][17] - Demand for chips is expected to be high, leading to considerations for building its own chip fabrication facility [17] Financial Milestones - The 2025 CEO incentive award is contingent on achieving 12 operational and market cap milestones, including: - Market cap milestones ranging from $2 trillion to $8.5 trillion [5][8] - Operational milestones such as cumulative vehicle deliveries and active FSD subscriptions [5][8] Market Performance - Historical performance from January 2018 to September 2025 shows Tesla shares increased by approximately 1,350%, compared to the S&P 500's 130% increase [10] Risks and Outlook - **Downside Risks**: Potential vehicle price reductions, increased competition, tariff impacts, and operational risks associated with vertical integration [19] - **Upside Risks**: Faster EV adoption, earlier product launches, and a stronger macroeconomic environment [19] - **Rating**: Neutral rating with a 12-month price target of $400, indicating a downside potential of 10.3% from the current price of $445.91 [20][18] Conclusion - The shareholder meeting highlighted Tesla's ambitious plans for product development and production scaling, alongside significant financial milestones tied to executive compensation. The company faces both risks and opportunities in the evolving EV market.

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's shareholders approved a new pay package for Elon Musk that could potentially reach $1 trillion based on ambitious performance targets over the next decade [1][5]. Company Performance - Tesla shares have experienced significant volatility, reaching an all-time high in December before dropping 50% by April, but have since rebounded over 100% [2][18]. - The current market cap of Tesla is approximately $1.43 trillion, while Musk's estimated net worth stands at $493 billion [8]. Pay Package Details - The approved pay package requires Musk to deliver 20 million Tesla EVs and deploy 1 million humanoid robots over the next decade [6]. - To trigger the first payout, Tesla must achieve a $2 trillion valuation, followed by nine additional increments of $500 billion each, ultimately reaching a market cap of $8.5 trillion [7]. Strategic Partnerships and Future Plans - Musk indicated potential discussions with Intel regarding chip production, emphasizing the need for more chips to support Tesla's operations [9]. - There are plans for SpaceX to potentially become a publicly traded company, allowing Tesla shareholders to participate in its ambitions [9]. Product Development and Regulatory Challenges - Production of the Cyber Cab is expected to begin in April, designed without pedals or a steering wheel, which may face regulatory scrutiny [10]. - The manufacturing line for the Cyber Cab could achieve a cycle time of 10 seconds, allowing for the production of 2 to 3 million units annually [11]. - Tesla aims to win full self-driving approval in China by early 2026, building on current partial approvals [12]. Market Context - The broader market has seen a decline, impacting Tesla's stock performance, but there are indications of potential stabilization and recovery in the near term [20][22].

Core Points - The article discusses Tesla's 2025 Annual Shareholder Meeting, highlighting the company's achievements, future strategies, and shareholder proposals [1][4][6] Group 1: Business Overview - Tesla's Model Y has once again become the best-selling vehicle globally, and the company's energy deployment capacity has doubled, reaching 31 GWh in 2024, more than double that of 2023 [1][8] - The company emphasizes safety, reporting that its vehicles under Autopilot have an accident rate ten times lower than the average driver, with one accident occurring for every 6.8 million miles driven [9][10] - Tesla's energy business is expected to create value through services like RoboTaxi and virtual power plants, powered by real-world AI [8] Group 2: Future Strategies - Elon Musk introduced a new mission for the company: "sustainable prosperity," emphasizing the potential of the Optimus robot to eliminate poverty and provide exceptional healthcare [3][38] - The company plans to produce the CyberCab without pedals or steering wheels starting in April next year, utilizing a manufacturing system similar to high-capacity consumer electronics [3][35] - Musk discussed advancements in Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology, with version 14.3 expected to enable "sleeping driving" [3][41] Group 3: Shareholder Proposals - Shareholders voted on several proposals, including the authorization for investment in XAI, incorporating sustainability metrics into executive compensation, and conducting audits for child labor in the supply chain [1][13][17] - The board opposed several shareholder proposals, including those related to sustainability metrics in executive pay and child labor audits, citing existing policies and practices [13][17][19] - The proposal to eliminate supermajority voting requirements was not approved by shareholders, while the executive compensation plan received support [32]

Core Viewpoint - Tesla CEO Elon Musk announced that the production of the Cybercab, a robot taxi, will begin in the second quarter of next year, with the final version lacking a steering wheel and pedals [1][6][14] Group 1: Cybercab Development - The Cybercab is expected to have a production capacity of several million units annually [7] - The vehicle is projected to be priced around $30,000 (approximately 210,000 RMB) and may enter mass production by 2026 [9] - Tesla's official images suggest that the Cybercab has undergone design changes, including the addition of side indicators and a more conservative headlight design compared to the concept version [10][14] Group 2: Robotaxi and Regulatory Challenges - Musk stated that Tesla's Robotaxi service will not require a safety monitor by the end of the year, indicating progress in autonomous driving technology [15] - However, there are reports of regulatory hurdles, with Tesla facing delays in obtaining necessary approvals for autonomous taxi services in states like Arizona and Nevada [17] - The initial ambitious goal of covering half of the U.S. population by the end of 2025 has been scaled back to launching services in 8 to 10 major metropolitan areas within the next two months [17] Group 3: Upcoming Product Launches - Tesla plans to showcase the new Roadster by the end of the year, which has faced multiple delays since its initial announcement [19] - Musk emphasized that the upcoming Roadster will feature groundbreaking technology, potentially making it one of the most memorable product launches [20][22] Group 4: AI Chip Development - The AI5 chip, designed for Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) capabilities, has completed its design review, with expected performance significantly surpassing the current HW4 chip [22] - Musk also mentioned ongoing development for AI6, AI7, and AI8 chips, indicating a strong focus on advancing Tesla's AI capabilities [22]

Tesla's Technological Advancements - Tesla Cybercab is confirmed to remove steering wheels and pedals, aiming for ultimate convenience in autonomous driving [1] - Robotaxi is planned for large-scale deployment in Austin and the Bay Area by the end of the year [1] - Tesla's vehicle fleet will form a decentralized AI computing network of "100 Gigawatts" [1] - Roadster 2 is anticipated to be the most memorable product launch ever [1] Market Strategies and Products - Tesla is launching "nanny-style" Tesla Ride in the US to promote FSD (Full Self-Driving) [1] - China's Model Y has unlocked V2L (Vehicle-to-Load) external discharge function, addressing market pain points [1] - JOWUA offers a 5% discount with the code BIGFISH95 on various accessories [1] AI and Future Predictions - Elon Musk predicts the "death of mobile phones," envisioning direct communication between AI and the brain [1] - Musk warns that AI is the most threatening thing to us, like "summoning a demon" [1]