Core Viewpoint - Advanced packaging has become a critical battleground for foundries and packaging companies amid the slowdown of Moore's Law and the explosive demand for AI/HPC solutions. Major players globally, including TSMC, Samsung, ASE, and domestic firms like JCET, Tongfu Microelectronics, and Huatian Technology, are accelerating capacity expansion to seize this key industry opportunity in the coming years [1]. Group 1: Market Trends and Projections - The global advanced chip packaging market is expected to grow from $50.38 billion in 2025 to $79.85 billion by 2032, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.8% [1]. - The demand for high-performance, low-power packaging solutions is driven by AI large models, autonomous driving, cloud computing, and edge computing [1]. Group 2: TSMC's Strategy and Expansion - TSMC's advanced packaging revenue is projected to exceed 10% in 2024, surpassing ASE to become the largest packaging supplier globally, driven by the surge in CoWoS demand [3]. - TSMC plans to invest an additional $100 billion in the U.S., including two advanced packaging plants in Arizona, expected to start construction in the second half of next year and enter mass production by 2028 [5]. - TSMC is set to launch CoWoS-L in 2026 and SoW-X in 2027, enhancing its capabilities significantly in the AI/HPC era [6]. Group 3: Samsung's Cautious Approach - Samsung has adopted a more cautious stance compared to TSMC, previously shelving a $7 billion advanced packaging facility due to uncertain customer demand [7]. - Recent contracts with Tesla and Apple highlight the necessity for Samsung to reconsider its advanced packaging investments [7][8]. - Samsung's integrated model of "memory + foundry + packaging" positions it well for future demand once customer needs become clearer [8]. Group 4: ASE's Expansion and Technological Advancements - ASE is enhancing its advanced packaging capabilities in Kaohsiung, focusing on CoWoS, SoIC, and FOPLP technologies [9]. - ASE's new K18B factory in Kaohsiung will serve AI and HPC demands, while the K28 factory will expand CoWoS testing capacity [9][10]. - ASE's technology evolution includes advancements in 3D Advanced RDL technology, which is crucial for various applications [10][11]. Group 5: Amkor's U.S. Investment - Amkor is expanding its advanced packaging facility in Peoria, Arizona, with a total investment of $2 billion, expected to create over 2,000 jobs [13]. - The new facility will primarily support TSMC's CoWoS and InFO technologies, establishing a local closed-loop for wafer manufacturing and packaging [14]. - Amkor's expansion aligns with U.S. semiconductor policies, emphasizing the need for a complete backend capability to maintain competitiveness in AI and HPC [14]. Group 6: Domestic Players' Development - JCET, Tongfu Microelectronics, and Huatian Technology are rapidly advancing in the advanced packaging sector, each developing unique strategies [15]. - JCET is focusing on various advanced packaging technologies and plans to invest 8.5 billion yuan in 2025, targeting high-performance applications [16][17]. - Tongfu Microelectronics has deepened its partnership with AMD, becoming its largest packaging supplier, and is making significant progress in large-size FCBGA technology [18][19]. - Huatian Technology is exploring CPO technology and has achieved significant growth in revenue, indicating a shift towards system integration in advanced packaging [20][21].

公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 在摩尔定律趋缓、AI/HPC需求爆发的背景下，先进封装已成为晶圆代工厂与封测企业的必争之 地。全球范围内，从台积电到三星，从日月光到安靠，以及国内的长电科技、通富微电、华天科 技，几乎所有龙头厂商都在加快扩产，力争抢占这一未来数年最关键的产业高地。 据 Coherent Market Insights (CMI) 数 据 ， 全 球 先 进 芯 片 封 装 市 场 规 模 预 计 将 从 2025 年 的 503.8 亿美元增长至 2032 年的 798.5 亿美元，复合年增长率达 6.8%。这一趋势背后，是 AI 大模型、自动驾驶、云计算与边缘计算对高性能、低功耗封装解决方案的迫切需求。 台积电：全力冲刺， 3DFabric架构统合前后端 在台积电的版图中，先进封装地位正快速上升。据伯恩斯坦预测，随着 CoWoS 需求井喷，台积电 2024 年先进封装营收占比有望突破 10%，首次超越日月光，跃升为全球最大封装供应商。 在 9 月的 TSMC OIP 生态论坛上，台积电强调 3DFabric平台的战略意义：通过晶圆级工艺 + 3D 堆 叠 (SoIC) + 先 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that AI is driving a significant increase in semiconductor demand, with the global semiconductor market expected to reach $1 trillion by 2030, largely due to AI and HPC applications [1] - TSMC is expanding its CoWoS capacity to meet the growing demand, as the current supply is insufficient [1][4] - The advanced packaging technology is leading a global upgrade in the semiconductor testing industry, with rapid capacity expansion driven by strong demand in HPC and AI [1][5] Group 2 - TSMC's advanced packaging platform, 3D Fabric, is continuously being upgraded, with plans to launch CoWoS-L with 5.5 times the mask size by 2026 and further enhancements by 2027 [2] - The CoWoS technology allows for the stacking of chips on the same silicon interposer, enhancing both performance and efficiency in AI chips [3] - The integration of HBM with CoWoS technology is crucial for improving AI chip performance, with ongoing advancements in mask size and integration levels [3] Group 3 - Major companies like Google, Meta, and Amazon are increasing their capital expenditure forecasts, indicating a booming AI industry and a significant opportunity for growth [4] - The domestic advanced packaging supply chain is expected to benefit from the limitations on overseas CoWoS capacity, emphasizing the need for self-sufficiency in China's semiconductor industry [5] - Domestic integrated circuit manufacturing and packaging processes have made significant advancements, with local suppliers accelerating their product development and technology integration [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for relevant stocks in the advanced packaging industry [4][8]. Core Insights - The semiconductor market is expected to reach a valuation of $1 trillion by 2030, driven by AI and HPC, with AI terminals projected to account for 45% of the market share [1][12]. - Advanced packaging technologies, particularly CoWoS, are critical for enhancing chip performance and efficiency, with significant upgrades planned for the coming years [2][70]. - Domestic suppliers in the advanced packaging supply chain are poised for growth due to increasing demand and limited overseas capacity [3]. Summary by Sections Semiconductor Market Outlook - AI is set to lead a new growth cycle in the semiconductor market, transitioning from previous drivers like PCs and smartphones [12]. - TSMC projects a threefold increase in energy-efficient performance (EEP) every two years through process upgrades and advanced packaging innovations [15]. Advanced Packaging Technology - CoWoS technology enables high-density chip integration, significantly improving performance and reducing power consumption [70]. - TSMC's advanced packaging platforms, including CoWoS and SoW, are evolving to meet the increasing demands of AI and HPC applications [53][62]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - Major cloud service providers like Google, Meta, and Amazon are increasing their capital expenditures, indicating a robust demand for AI-related technologies [2]. - The supply of CoWoS is currently insufficient to meet demand, prompting TSMC to expand its production capacity [2][3]. Domestic Supply Chain Opportunities - The report highlights the importance of a self-sufficient domestic CoWoS supply chain in China, as local manufacturers enhance their capabilities [3]. - The rapid expansion of advanced packaging capacity is expected to drive growth in the domestic semiconductor supply chain [3].