证券研究报告 石化行业周报：本周石化板块整体表现一般， 持续关注反内卷 行业投资评级：强大于市|维持 中邮证券研究所石化团队 分析师:张津圣 SAC 登记编号:S1340524040005 1 1 发布时间：2025-09-01 投资要点 请参阅附注免责声明 2 ◼ 焦点：美油库存去化，平稳。持续关注反内卷进展，石化行业中老旧装置淘汰退出和更新改造的进展。 ◼ 回顾：本周申万一级行业指数表现中，石油石化指数表现一般，较上周下跌0.57%。而中信三级行业指 数表现来看，本周其他石化在石油石化中表现最佳，涨幅1.15%。 ◼ 原油：能源价格震荡。美原油库存下降，美成品油库存表现分化 ◼ 聚酯：涤纶长丝价格、价差均稳中有涨。江浙织机涤纶长丝库存天数上涨，织机开工率上涨 ◼ 烯烃：样本聚烯烃现货价格平稳，库存下降 ◼ 标的： ➢ 上游：地缘若未来再次给出原油溢价，则利好上游标的。 ➢ 炼化：若需求好转，优供给、淘汰落后产能有所进展，则利好中游炼化。 ◼ 风险提示：油价剧烈波动、地缘风险、欧美通胀反复、欧美经济波动、行业政策变化、项目投产进度变 化、需求变化、其他等。 本周石化表现一般，石油石化指数下跌0.57% 图表 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict is complex and challenging to resolve, with recent diplomatic efforts indicating a potential shift towards peace negotiations [1][2][10]. - Recent meetings between U.S. President Trump, Ukrainian President Zelensky, and European leaders have focused on Ukraine's security guarantees and the possibility of high-level talks between Zelensky and Russian President Putin [2][5][14]. - The discussions have highlighted the need for a security framework for Ukraine, with Trump ruling out Ukraine's NATO membership and emphasizing European countries' leading role in ensuring Ukraine's security [6][9]. Group 2 - The meetings have not resulted in concrete agreements but have laid the groundwork for future diplomatic breakthroughs regarding the Russia-Ukraine situation [4][10]. - There is a potential agreement for Ukraine to procure approximately $90 billion worth of military equipment from the U.S., while the U.S. may purchase drones from Ukraine to enhance its production capacity [6][9]. - The legal framework for Ukraine's security guarantees may mimic NATO's collective defense clause, which could provide a basis for international support in case of aggression [7][8]. Group 3 - The article notes a slight shift in Ukraine's stance on territorial issues, with Zelensky indicating a willingness to discuss potential territorial exchanges, although significant challenges remain [11][12]. - The article mentions that the U.S. is preparing for a potential bilateral meeting between Zelensky and Putin, with various European countries suggesting locations for the talks [15]. - The article concludes with a cautious outlook on the negotiation process, emphasizing the complexity and the long road ahead for achieving a final peace agreement [14][16].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Strongly Outperforming the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - This week, commodity prices have retreated, leading to a weakening in the petrochemical sector. Continuous attention is required on the progress of phasing out old facilities and upgrading within the petrochemical industry [2] - The oil and petrochemical index closed at 2262.71 points, down 2.94% from last week, indicating a weaker performance compared to other sectors [3][7] - In the upstream sector, geopolitical factors may provide a premium for oil, benefiting upstream stocks. In the refining sector, a recovery in demand and progress in eliminating outdated capacity would be favorable for midstream refining [2] Summary by Sections Oil - Energy prices have fluctuated, with Brent crude oil futures and TTF natural gas futures closing at $69.54 per barrel and €33.81 per megawatt-hour, respectively, reflecting increases of 1.1% and 4.2% from last week [10] - U.S. crude oil inventories have risen, with total crude and petroleum product inventories (excluding strategic reserves) at 1,257,771 thousand barrels, an increase of 7,087 thousand barrels [15] Polyester - The price of polyester filament remains stable, with POY, DTY, and FDY prices at 6,680, 7,930, and 6,930 yuan per ton, respectively. The price differentials have decreased by 101 yuan per ton [18] - The inventory days for polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have increased, with operating rates for filament and downstream looms at 91.5% and 55.5%, respectively, both showing slight declines [22] Olefins - Sample prices for polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) are 7,710 and 8,050 yuan per ton, with changes of 0.13% and -1.11% from last week. The petrochemical inventory for olefins has increased by 70,000 tons, totaling 800,000 tons [26]

投资要点 请参阅附注免责声明 2 证券研究报告 石化行业周报：供给侧预期带动石化走强 行业投资评级：强大于市|维持 中邮证券研究所石化团队 分析师:张津圣 SAC 登记编号:S1340524040005 1 1 发布时间：2025-07-28 ◼ 焦点：持续关注反内卷进展，石化行业中老旧装置淘汰退出和更新改造的进展。 ◼ 回顾：本周申万一级行业指数表现中，石油石化指数表现尚可，报收2331.15点，较上周上涨2.58%。 而中信三级行业指数表现来看，本周其他石化在石油石化中表现最佳，涨幅6.83%。 ◼ 原油：能源价格稳中有跌。美原油库存下跌，美成品油库存表现分化。 ◼ 聚酯：涤纶长丝价格上涨，价差上涨。江浙织机涤纶长丝库存天数下跌，织机开工率下滑。 ◼ 烯烃：样本聚烯烃现货价格平稳，库存下降 ◼ 标的： ➢ 上游：地缘若未来再次给出原油溢价，则利好上游标的。 ➢ 炼化：若需求好转，优供给、淘汰落后产能有所进展，则利好中游炼化。 ◼ 风险提示：油价剧烈波动、地缘风险、欧美通胀反复、欧美经济波动、行业政策变化、项目投产进度变 化、需求变化、其他等。 3 图表1：申万一级行业指数表现 资料来源：wind，中邮证券 ...

部分市场观察人士担心，伊朗或在短期内选择阻止那些需要经霍尔木兹海峡航行的油船或LNG运输船 通行。随着局势升级，全球最大规模LNG出口国卡塔尔在周二已要求液化天然气运输船在海峡外等待 LNG装货，直到卡塔尔装载工作就绪。全球约五分之一的 LNG 贸易需通过这一狭窄的瓶颈海峡航道。 "水道运输仍处于严密监控中，因为任何贸易流动受阻都可能导致LNG价格不成比例地上涨——尤其是 对高度依赖该地区LNG供给的国家而言，"Rystad Energy高级分析师Lu Ming Pang在报告中写道。"保持 霍尔木兹海峡开放、避免供应中断符合包括伊朗在内所有中东国家的最大利益。" 随着以色列-伊朗之间的军事冲突有着愈演愈烈之势，且有可能把美国带入战争泥潭并波及整个中东， 甚至霍尔木兹海峡面临潜在的封锁危机，欧洲天然气价格在周三继续上涨，TTF天然气期货价格在周三 一度上涨2.8%，超过每兆瓦时40欧元大关，为4月初以来首次触及该水平。 荷兰合作银行驻伦敦市场的策略师Florence Schmit表示："未来两天应该会决定能源和天然气价格是否 会继续强势上涨步伐，或者市场是否会再次平静下来(至少是暂时平静下来)。"她补充道，伊 ...