证券研究报告 石化行业周报：本周石化板块整体表现一般， 持续关注反内卷 行业投资评级：强大于市|维持 中邮证券研究所石化团队 分析师:张津圣 SAC 登记编号:S1340524040005 1 1 发布时间：2025-09-01 投资要点 请参阅附注免责声明 2 ◼ 焦点：美油库存去化，平稳。持续关注反内卷进展，石化行业中老旧装置淘汰退出和更新改造的进展。 ◼ 回顾：本周申万一级行业指数表现中，石油石化指数表现一般，较上周下跌0.57%。而中信三级行业指 数表现来看，本周其他石化在石油石化中表现最佳，涨幅1.15%。 ◼ 原油：能源价格震荡。美原油库存下降，美成品油库存表现分化 ◼ 聚酯：涤纶长丝价格、价差均稳中有涨。江浙织机涤纶长丝库存天数上涨，织机开工率上涨 ◼ 烯烃：样本聚烯烃现货价格平稳，库存下降 ◼ 标的： ➢ 上游：地缘若未来再次给出原油溢价，则利好上游标的。 ➢ 炼化：若需求好转，优供给、淘汰落后产能有所进展，则利好中游炼化。 ◼ 风险提示：油价剧烈波动、地缘风险、欧美通胀反复、欧美经济波动、行业政策变化、项目投产进度变 化、需求变化、其他等。 本周石化表现一般，石油石化指数下跌0.57% 图表 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict is complex and challenging to resolve, with recent diplomatic efforts indicating a potential shift towards peace negotiations [1][2][10]. - Recent meetings between U.S. President Trump, Ukrainian President Zelensky, and European leaders have focused on Ukraine's security guarantees and the possibility of high-level talks between Zelensky and Russian President Putin [2][5][14]. - The discussions have highlighted the need for a security framework for Ukraine, with Trump ruling out Ukraine's NATO membership and emphasizing European countries' leading role in ensuring Ukraine's security [6][9]. Group 2 - The meetings have not resulted in concrete agreements but have laid the groundwork for future diplomatic breakthroughs regarding the Russia-Ukraine situation [4][10]. - There is a potential agreement for Ukraine to procure approximately $90 billion worth of military equipment from the U.S., while the U.S. may purchase drones from Ukraine to enhance its production capacity [6][9]. - The legal framework for Ukraine's security guarantees may mimic NATO's collective defense clause, which could provide a basis for international support in case of aggression [7][8]. Group 3 - The article notes a slight shift in Ukraine's stance on territorial issues, with Zelensky indicating a willingness to discuss potential territorial exchanges, although significant challenges remain [11][12]. - The article mentions that the U.S. is preparing for a potential bilateral meeting between Zelensky and Putin, with various European countries suggesting locations for the talks [15]. - The article concludes with a cautious outlook on the negotiation process, emphasizing the complexity and the long road ahead for achieving a final peace agreement [14][16].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Strongly Outperforming the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - This week, commodity prices have retreated, leading to a weakening in the petrochemical sector. Continuous attention is required on the progress of phasing out old facilities and upgrading within the petrochemical industry [2] - The oil and petrochemical index closed at 2262.71 points, down 2.94% from last week, indicating a weaker performance compared to other sectors [3][7] - In the upstream sector, geopolitical factors may provide a premium for oil, benefiting upstream stocks. In the refining sector, a recovery in demand and progress in eliminating outdated capacity would be favorable for midstream refining [2] Summary by Sections Oil - Energy prices have fluctuated, with Brent crude oil futures and TTF natural gas futures closing at $69.54 per barrel and €33.81 per megawatt-hour, respectively, reflecting increases of 1.1% and 4.2% from last week [10] - U.S. crude oil inventories have risen, with total crude and petroleum product inventories (excluding strategic reserves) at 1,257,771 thousand barrels, an increase of 7,087 thousand barrels [15] Polyester - The price of polyester filament remains stable, with POY, DTY, and FDY prices at 6,680, 7,930, and 6,930 yuan per ton, respectively. The price differentials have decreased by 101 yuan per ton [18] - The inventory days for polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have increased, with operating rates for filament and downstream looms at 91.5% and 55.5%, respectively, both showing slight declines [22] Olefins - Sample prices for polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) are 7,710 and 8,050 yuan per ton, with changes of 0.13% and -1.11% from last week. The petrochemical inventory for olefins has increased by 70,000 tons, totaling 800,000 tons [26]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Strong over the market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - Continuous attention is required on the progress of eliminating outdated facilities and upgrading in the petrochemical industry [2] - The oil and petrochemical index reported a performance increase of 2.58%, closing at 2331.15 points, while other petrochemical sectors saw a rise of 6.83% [5] - Energy prices are stable with a slight decline, as U.S. crude oil inventories decreased, and refined oil inventories showed mixed results [6][11] - Polyester filament prices have increased, with price differentials also rising, while the inventory days for polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have decreased, and the operating rate of weaving machines has declined [14][19] - Sample polyolefin spot prices remained stable, with a decrease in inventory [22][25] Summary by Sections Oil - Energy prices are stable with a slight decline, with Brent crude oil futures and TTF natural gas futures closing at $68.78 per barrel and €32.29 per MWh, down 0.8% and 4.2% respectively [8] - U.S. crude oil and petroleum product inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 5,153 thousand barrels to 1,250,684 thousand barrels [13] Polyester - The prices of polyester filament have risen, with POY, DTY, and FDY prices at 6,680, 7,930, and 6,930 yuan per ton respectively, with price differentials increasing by 133 yuan per ton [16] - The inventory days for polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are 20.3, 38.1, and 15.5 days for FDY, DTY, and POY respectively, with operating rates of 92.1% and 55.6% for polyester filament and downstream weaving machines [21] Olefins - Sample polyolefin spot prices are stable, with PE and PP prices at 7,700 and 8,140 yuan per ton, showing a change of 0% and -0.73% respectively [25] - The petrochemical inventory for polyolefins is 730,000 tons, down by 40,000 tons from the previous week [25]

Core Viewpoint - European natural gas prices have risen for six consecutive days, driven by escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, raising concerns about potential disruptions in the critical energy trade route of the Strait of Hormuz [1][2]. Group 1: Market Impact - The TTF natural gas futures price surged by 2.8% on Wednesday, surpassing €40 per megawatt-hour for the first time since early April [1]. - Approximately 20% of global LNG trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and any disruption could lead to disproportionate price increases in LNG [1][2]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions are expected to keep European natural gas prices rising more strongly than Brent crude oil prices due to tighter supply-demand fundamentals in the gas market [1][3]. Group 2: Supply Chain Concerns - Observers are worried that Iran may block oil and LNG vessels from passing through the Strait of Hormuz, which could exacerbate supply chain issues [2]. - Qatar has instructed LNG carriers to wait outside the Strait until loading operations are ready, indicating a potential bottleneck in LNG supply [2]. - The risk of trade disruptions has also contributed to rising Brent crude oil prices, reflecting broader market anxieties [2]. Group 3: Analyst Insights - Analysts from Citigroup noted that the rise in European natural gas prices is expected to be stronger than that of Brent crude oil due to the tighter fundamentals in the gas market [3]. - The next few days will be critical in determining whether energy and gas prices will continue to rise or stabilize temporarily [3]. - Potential threats from Iran against U.S. military bases and reduced LNG vessel traffic through the Strait pose significant upward risks to global natural gas supply [3].