9月4日黄金板块震荡走低，尾盘跌幅有所收窄。黄金基金ETF收跌0.16%，黄金股票ETF收跌3.04%。 8月25日，美国总统特朗普以涉嫌住房抵押贷款欺诈为由解雇美联储理事莉萨·库克，此举在美国历史上前所未有，引发 广泛争议。美国联邦储备银行自1913年成立以来，上演了首次由总统直接罢免理事的历史性一幕。同时，市场将此举 解读为将严重影响美联储的货币政策独立性。如果总统可以随意干预中央银行的事务，独立货币政策就成了笑谈，金 融市场势必产生动荡，甚至担心通货膨胀失控。此举不仅违背政治惯例，同时也是对宪政秩序的严重挑战。 同时，有信息表明特朗普团队已草拟一项秘密计划，旨在增强白宫对美联储的干预能力，包括使总统直接介入利率制 定过程，并将美联储的监管政策纳入行政审查范围。即便不直接动用免职机制，此类柔性干预手段也可能逐步侵蚀美 联储的政策独立性。另一方面，随着库克去职，特朗普获得了提名第三位美联储理事的机会。若三名与其立场一致的 提名人选最终就任，七人组成的理事会中将形成多数优势，从而可能根本性地影响未来货币政策的制定方向。该趋势 下，美联储的独立性受到明显挑战，各国央行或进一步寻找替代美元的安全资产。 此外，今年 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict is complex and challenging to resolve, with recent diplomatic efforts indicating a potential shift towards peace negotiations [1][2][10]. - Recent meetings between U.S. President Trump, Ukrainian President Zelensky, and European leaders have focused on Ukraine's security guarantees and the possibility of high-level talks between Zelensky and Russian President Putin [2][5][14]. - The discussions have highlighted the need for a security framework for Ukraine, with Trump ruling out Ukraine's NATO membership and emphasizing European countries' leading role in ensuring Ukraine's security [6][9]. Group 2 - The meetings have not resulted in concrete agreements but have laid the groundwork for future diplomatic breakthroughs regarding the Russia-Ukraine situation [4][10]. - There is a potential agreement for Ukraine to procure approximately $90 billion worth of military equipment from the U.S., while the U.S. may purchase drones from Ukraine to enhance its production capacity [6][9]. - The legal framework for Ukraine's security guarantees may mimic NATO's collective defense clause, which could provide a basis for international support in case of aggression [7][8]. Group 3 - The article notes a slight shift in Ukraine's stance on territorial issues, with Zelensky indicating a willingness to discuss potential territorial exchanges, although significant challenges remain [11][12]. - The article mentions that the U.S. is preparing for a potential bilateral meeting between Zelensky and Putin, with various European countries suggesting locations for the talks [15]. - The article concludes with a cautious outlook on the negotiation process, emphasizing the complexity and the long road ahead for achieving a final peace agreement [14][16].

Core Insights - The current ten-year government bonds have high investment value, optimizing risk-return performance in portfolios and showing low correlation with other assets like stocks and gold [2][3] - The macroeconomic environment is favorable for ten-year bonds, with a loose monetary policy and weak credit demand, leading to better performance compared to other assets during this phase [2][3] Ten-Year Government Bond Historical Analysis - The long-term trend indicates a downward shift in interest rates, primarily driven by declining real returns, with expectations of lower financing costs due to weakening prices [3] - Financial institutions are experiencing a downward trend in earnings, with deposit and investment product yields decreasing further from the beginning of the year [3] - Supply-demand dynamics and central bank liquidity support are expected to drive interest rates lower, with a potential asset shortage emerging as bond supply slows [3] Ten-Year Government Bond Advantages - Interest rates are anticipated to reach new lows, with expectations of the ten-year bond yield dropping to 1.4%-1.5% within the year [4] - The ten-year bond serves as a crucial benchmark rate, balancing long and short-term funding needs and is a key reference for pricing other financial products [4] - The 国泰上证 10-year government bond ETF is the only ETF tracking the ten-year bond index, utilizing an optimized sampling method to enhance liquidity and reduce trading costs [4][5] ETF Characteristics - The 国债 ETF operates on a T+0 trading mechanism, allowing for same-day buying and selling, which facilitates multiple trading opportunities within a single day [5] - The ETF maintains transparency in holdings, with daily disclosures, making it suitable for conservative long-term investors [5] - The ETF has low fees, high liquidity, and a strong historical performance, managed by experienced fund managers [5] Industry Performance Overview - The steel industry saw a 6.9% year-on-year decline in crude steel production in May, indicating a need for further observation regarding production strength [14] - The coal industry experienced a continued decline in imports, with a slight increase in thermal power generation, suggesting a potential rebound in demand [15]

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 港股恒生指数略微下跌0.57%。港股科技股下跌0.7%。 港股在4月初遇到关税危机，短期大幅下跌。 之后港股连续6周上涨，收复了4月初的跌幅。 最近几个交易日港股出现了小幅波动。 原因还是跟关税有关。 美国联邦法院，本周阻止了特朗普4月2日的关税政策生效。 大家端午安康～ 端午假期马上就要结束了。 假期里A股没有交易，A股的估值也没有变化。 1. 不过港股是有交易的。 周一港股开盘。 不过随后特朗普政府又上诉，让美国联邦巡回上诉法院，暂时恢复关于提高关税的政策。 也由此引发最近几天全球股票市场波动。 例如周一亚太其他地区股票市场也出现波动，日股周一下跌1.3%。 欧美市场周一开盘后也小幅下跌。 2. 关税引发全球股票市场小幅波动，黄金的走势就比较坚挺。 最近黄金跟全球股票市场有明显的负相关。 之前咱们直播课介绍过，黄金跟美元呈现负相关。 点击查看：《 黄金的投资价值如何，现在还能买吗？ 》 美元实际利率提升，或者美元汇率升值，都有可能会黄金不利。 4月初全球股市下跌，黄金就上涨较多； 之后几周，全球股票市场整体反弹，黄金出现最近2-3年最大的短期回撤； 到最近一两周，全 ...