来源：Counterpoint Research 《全球智能手表出货量预测，2025 年 Q3》 在进一步谈及苹果表现时，Jain 补充道："苹果最新一代智能手表产品在上市季度实现了同比 12% 的出货量增长，预计其 2025 年全年出货量也将同比增 长 12%。这一反弹主要得益于备受期待的高性价比 Watch SE 3 以及超高端 Watch Ultra 3 的推出，这两款产品显著拓宽了苹果在不同价格区间的覆盖范 围。同时，5G 支持、卫星通信，以及高血压提醒等全新健康功能的加入，帮助苹果在连续七个季度同比下滑后明显回暖。" 副总监 David Naranjo 在展望市场前景时指出："2025 年的智能手表行业尤为突出，功能驱动型创新浪潮从根本上提升了设备性能。AI 集成、5G 支持、卫 星通信以及 MicroLED 显示技术成为最具代表性的升级亮点。如今即便是价格较低的型号也开始提供 AI 驱动的使用体验和升级版健康传感器，以重新吸 引此前流失的基础款智能手表用户。这种对功能升级和用户价值的重新聚焦正形成正向反馈，并有望在 2025 年推动市场增长。" 根据 Counterpoint Research 发 ...

Core Insights - The global smartwatch shipment is expected to grow by 7% year-on-year by the end of 2025, following a decline in 2024, driven by new hardware and software features, increased consumer preference for mid-to-high-end smartwatches, and a growing focus on health-related functionalities [2][5] - China is identified as the key growth engine for the global smartwatch market, with three out of the top five brands being Chinese. The market share in China is projected to increase from 25% in 2024 to approximately 31% in 2025 due to government subsidies and the strong presence of local brands like Huawei, Xiaomi, and Little Genius [2][5] Market Dynamics - Apple is expected to see a 12% year-on-year increase in shipments in Q3 2025, marking the end of seven consecutive quarters of decline, largely due to the launch of the cost-effective Watch SE 3 and the premium Watch Ultra 3 [5][6] - The integration of AI-driven health analysis and guidance features into products is accelerating among leading global brands, with key new technologies such as satellite communication, 5G RedCap, and MicroLED display expected to be commercially available in 2025 [5][6] Product Innovations - The latest Apple smartwatch models have significantly broadened the price range coverage, with new health features like high blood pressure alerts contributing to a rebound in sales [6] - The 2025 smartwatch industry is characterized by a wave of functional innovations that enhance device performance, with even lower-priced models beginning to offer AI-driven experiences and upgraded health sensors [6]

数据来源：Counterpoint Research 智通财经记者 | 宋佳楠 12月24日，智通财经获悉，数据咨询机构Counterpoint Research发布的最新报告显示，在经历2024年的大幅下滑后，全球智能手表出货量预计将在华为和苹 果的带动下于2025年同比增长7%。同时，品牌竞争格局出现显著重构——小米成功反超三星跻身第三位，苹果也结束了连续七个季度下滑的局面。 2025年，全球智能手表市场的变化，主要体现在新一代硬件与软件功能的推出、消费者对中高端智能手表偏好提升，以及行业对健康相关功能的日益关注。 从核心品牌数据变化来看，以23%的市场份额排在首位的苹果终于扭转颓势，三季度出货量实现12%的增长。 Counterpoint高级研究分析师Anshika Jain表示，"预计苹果新一代智能手表2025年全年出货量也将同比增长12%。这一反弹主要得益于备受期待的高性价比 Watch SE 3以及超高端Watch Ultra 3的推出，这两款产品显著拓宽了苹果在不同价格区间的覆盖范围。同时，5G支持、卫星通信，以及高血压提醒等全新健 康功能的加入，帮助苹果在连续七个季度同比下滑后明显回暖。" 华 ...

Group 1 - Apple has announced a significant upgrade to its security vulnerability bounty program, introducing a "flag" system that allows researchers to objectively showcase their findings and earn higher rewards, effective from November this year [1][3] - The new bounty program offers the "richest rewards in the industry," with a doubled reward of $2 million for complex exploit chains that can achieve "employment-grade spyware attacks," and potential bonuses exceeding $5 million for specific vulnerabilities [3] - The program shifts focus from individual vulnerabilities to complete exploit chains, reflecting real-world attack behaviors that often utilize multiple vulnerabilities in succession [3] Group 2 - Apple unveiled the iPhone 17 series, including iPhone 17, iPhone Air, and iPhone 17 Pro, during its fall product launch event, with iPhone Air being the thinnest phone ever released by Apple, starting at a price of 7999 yuan [1][4] - The prices of iPhone 17 and iPhone 17 Pro Max remain the same as their predecessors, while the iPhone 17 Air and 17 Pro see a price increase of $50 compared to the previous generation [4] - The iPhone 17 series features significant upgrades, including the A19/A19 Pro SoC chip with AI capabilities reaching 45 TOPS, enhanced camera specifications, and the introduction of a 2TB storage option for the iPhone 17 Pro Max [5] - Demand for the iPhone 17 series is reportedly 10% to 15% higher than that for the iPhone 16 series, indicating a new growth cycle for Apple [5]

Group 1: Security Vulnerability Bounty Program - Apple announced a significant upgrade to its security vulnerability bounty program, introducing a "flag system" for researchers to objectively showcase exploit results and earn higher rewards, effective from November this year [2] - The new program offers the "richest rewards in the industry," with a doubled bounty of $2 million for complex exploit chains that achieve "employment-grade spyware attacks," and additional bonuses for specific vulnerabilities that can exceed $5 million [2] - The revamped bounty program focuses on complete exploit chains rather than individual vulnerabilities, reflecting real-world attack behaviors that often exploit multiple vulnerabilities [2] Group 2: iPhone 17 Series Launch - Apple unveiled the iPhone 17 series, including iPhone 17, iPhone Air, and iPhone 17 Pro, during its 2025 fall product launch, with iPhone Air being the thinnest phone ever launched by Apple, starting at 7999 yuan [3] - The pricing for iPhone 17 and iPhone 17 Pro Max remains the same as the previous generation, while iPhone 17 Air and 17 Pro see a price increase of $50 compared to their predecessors [3] Group 3: Technical Upgrades in iPhone 17 Series - The iPhone 17 series features upgraded A19/A19 Pro SoC chips with AI computing power reaching 45 TOPS, enhancing on-device AI capabilities [4] - The rear cameras of the iPhone 17 Pro series have been upgraded to 48 million pixels, with a design that includes aluminum unibody and second-generation ultra-ceramic glass [4] Group 4: Market Demand and Stock Performance - The introduction of a 2TB storage version for the iPhone 17 Pro Max has raised the highest retail price for iPhones, contributing to a rebound in Apple's stock price [5] - Analyst reports indicate that global demand for the iPhone 17 series is 10% to 15% higher than that for the iPhone 16 series, signaling the start of a new growth cycle for Apple [5]

Core Insights - The first batch of Mac laptops equipped with the M5 chip and new generation displays is nearing mass production, with plans for release between the end of this year and the first quarter of next year [1] - Apple is expected to launch new products in the first half of next year, including the iPhone 17e, a new low-end iPad, and an updated iPad Air [1] - The iPhone 17e is anticipated to maintain a competitive price point of 4499 RMB, similar to its predecessor, the iPhone 16e [1] - Apple is adjusting its pricing strategy to expand market share and respond to competition, particularly in the high-end smartphone market where growth is slowing [2] - The iPhone 16e has performed well in overseas markets, achieving cumulative global sales of 7.15 million units within five months of its launch [2] - The iPhone 17 series has seen strong pre-order demand, with record-breaking sales figures reported shortly after its launch [3][4] Product Launches - The new MacBook Pro and MacBook Air models, along with two new displays, are set to enter mass production [1] - The iPhone 17 series, including the iPhone Air, was unveiled at the 2025 fall product launch event, with the iPhone Air being the thinnest phone Apple has ever produced [3] - The iPhone 17 series is available for pre-order, with significant consumer interest leading to high sales volumes [3] Market Dynamics - Apple is facing increased competition in the high-end smartphone market, with its market share in the 6000 RMB and above segment in China dropping from 70% to 58% [2] - The introduction of more affordable products is part of Apple's strategy to meet diverse consumer needs and counteract competition from brands like Xiaomi, OPPO, and vivo [2] - The iPhone 17 series is expected to drive Apple into a new growth cycle, with demand projected to be 10%-15% higher than that for the iPhone 16 series [4]

Core Viewpoint - Apple is launching new iPhone models, including iPhone 17 Pro, iPhone 17 Pro Max, and iPhone Air, marking the first major redesign since 2020, amidst strong consumer demand and a critical purchasing window [1][2]. Group 1: Product Launch and Features - The new iPhone models feature a return to aluminum casing and a redesigned back, with iPhone Air emphasizing a lightweight design as its main selling point [1]. - iPhone 17 Pro series is expected to be the most popular due to upgrades in battery life, camera technology, and durability, starting at $1,099, which is only $100 more than the previous model [2]. - iPhone Air, priced at $999, focuses on a slim design but has shortcomings in battery life and camera capabilities, potentially limiting its sales growth [4]. Group 2: Market Context and Competition - Apple faces challenges in the Chinese market, with a 6% year-over-year decline in sales and only a 12% market share, trailing behind local brands like OPPO, Huawei, and Xiaomi [2]. - Competitors like Samsung have recently launched upgraded flagship devices, including a foldable phone, while Apple is not expected to release a foldable phone until late next year [2][6]. - The overall market sentiment is cautious, with analysts noting that while price increases are occurring, they may not significantly catalyze stock price movements [2].

Macro Analysis - The CPI in China fell to -0.4% YoY in August due to a sharp decline in food prices, while the core CPI rose to 0.9% YoY [2][5] - PPI's YoY decline narrowed to -2.9%, indicating a potential recovery in upstream material prices [5] - The continuation of deflation is expected to prompt further policy actions, with a focus on countering "involution" [2][5] Industry Insights - The technology sector saw significant developments with Apple's recent product launch, including the iPhone 17 series and AirPods Pro 3, which are expected to drive a replacement cycle [6] - The pricing strategy for Apple's new products was better than market fears, with most prices remaining stable except for a $100 increase on the iPhone Pro [6] - The demand for AI-related products remains strong, as evidenced by TSMC's sales growth of 33.8% YoY in August [5][6] Stock Recommendations - Geely Automobile (175 HK) is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of 25.00, representing a 37% upside potential [7] - Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US) is also rated as a "Buy" with a target price of 44.95, indicating a 21% upside [7] - Tencent (700 HK) and Alibaba (BABA US) are both rated as "Buy" with target prices of 705.00 and 158.80 respectively, showing potential upsides of 11% and 10% [7]

Group 1 - The core focus of the article is on the upcoming Apple product launches, particularly the iPhone 17 series, which includes significant design changes and new models like the iPhone 17 Air [1][5][7] - The iPhone 17 Air is designed to be the thinnest iPhone ever at 5.5mm and weighs around 145 grams, utilizing a titanium alloy frame for rigidity [8][10] - The iPhone 17 Air will feature a 2800mAh battery, which raises concerns about its battery life compared to competitors [12][14] Group 2 - The iPhone 17 Pro and Pro Max will feature a new horizontal camera module design, moving away from the previous "bathroom scale" look [22][24] - The Pro series will upgrade the telephoto lens to 48MP, improving its competitive edge against Android devices [27][30] - The standard iPhone 17 will finally support a 120Hz refresh rate, a feature that has been common in Android devices for years [36][38] Group 3 - Apple is expected to launch three new Apple Watch models, including the Ultra 3, which will support low-power 5G and satellite messaging [55][57] - The AirPods Pro 3 will feature a new design without physical buttons and will include health monitoring capabilities such as heart rate and temperature measurement [62][66] - The iPad Pro is anticipated to receive an upgrade to the M5 chip, enhancing its AI capabilities, although its design may remain unchanged [66][68]

Core Viewpoint - Apple Watch shipments declined by 19% in 2024, marking the second consecutive year of decline, primarily due to the absence of new SE models [1][5]. Group 1: Shipment Performance - In 2024, Apple Watch shipments fell to 19 million units, with all regions except India experiencing a decline, particularly in North America, which accounts for over half of Apple Watch shipments [5]. - The decline in market share for Apple in the high-end smartwatch segment was 8 percentage points year-on-year [5]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 marked the fifth consecutive quarter of declining shipments for Apple smartwatches, while competitors in the high-end smartwatch market saw growth during the same period [5]. Group 2: Contributing Factors - The limited upgrade of the Series 10, intensified competition, absence of new Ultra models, and legal disputes collectively hindered growth [6]. - The last update for the SE series was in Q3 2022, and Apple is attempting to change the SE series' aluminum base to plastic, causing delays in the new SE model release [7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - To achieve a market rebound in 2025 and maintain market share, Apple needs to focus on introducing new features, launching new SE and Ultra series models, and potential design upgrades [7].