Core Insights - Electric-vehicle (EV) stocks, particularly Tesla (TSLA), have faced significant pressure since late 2023, with Tesla's core auto business encountering challenges, especially in China [1][4] Sales Performance - In January 2026, Xiaomi's YU7 SUV sold 37,869 units in China, surpassing Tesla's Model Y, which sold 16,845 units, marking a shift in the competitive landscape [2][3] - The YU7's success has led to Tesla's Model Y dropping from the top position to 7th place among new-energy vehicles in China, indicating intensifying competition [2][3] Market Dynamics - Tesla experienced its first annual sales decline in China in 2025, raising concerns about its growth potential as local brands like BYD and Xiaomi gain market share [2][3] - The shift in market dynamics is causing investors to question Tesla's revenue and margin sustainability, particularly since 25% of its sales come from China [3] Stock Market Reaction - TSLA's stock reaction has been muted due to broader market concerns, but the news of Xiaomi outselling Tesla has deepened doubts about Tesla's auto outlook and growth expectations for 2026 [4] - The competitive pressure is forcing Tesla to potentially compete on price, which could negatively impact its future performance [4] Company Challenges - TSLA has faced a turbulent year, with stock prices peaking near $498 in December 2025 before declining due to execution shortfalls and delivery declines [5] - High-profile controversies surrounding CEO Elon Musk have further compounded the challenges faced by the company [5]

Group 1 - The core message from Xiaomi's founder Lei Jun is a New Year greeting and promotion for the Xiaomi YU7 vehicle, encouraging customers to make purchases during the holiday season [1][5][7] - Xiaomi announced that its stores will remain open during the Spring Festival, with a limited number of Xiaomi YU7 vehicles available for immediate purchase, allowing customers to lock in orders and potentially take delivery the same day [3] - Special financing options are available for customers who place orders before February 28, including a 7-year low-interest plan starting with a down payment of 99,900 yuan and monthly payments as low as 1,931 yuan, or a 3-year zero-interest plan starting with a down payment of 74,900 yuan and monthly payments as low as 4,961 yuan [3]

Core View - The company reported strong fourth-quarter earnings but lowered its sales forecast for the upcoming fiscal year, indicating mixed performance expectations going forward [1][5]. Quarterly Metrics - The company achieved fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $2.18, surpassing the analyst consensus estimate of $1.79 [2]. - Quarterly sales reached $10.84 billion, reflecting a 2% year-over-year increase and exceeding the expected $10.495 billion [2]. - Revenue growth occurred despite a 1% decline in global light vehicle production [2]. Sales and Production Insights - Increased sales were attributed to higher production on ongoing programs and the launch of new models, including the Ford Expedition and Lincoln Navigator, Xiaomi YU7, and Jetour Zongheng G700 [3]. - Reported U.S. dollar sales benefited from a net strengthening of foreign currencies, contributing an additional $355 million [3]. - Net customer recoveries helped offset higher tariff costs incurred during the year [3]. Financial Performance - Adjusted EBIT rose 18% to $814 million, with the adjusted EBIT margin expanding by 100 basis points to 7.5% [4]. - The company generated cash from operations of $1.98 billion, with free cash flow amounting to $1.35 billion during the quarter [4]. Dividend and Outlook - A fourth-quarter dividend of $0.495 per common share was declared, representing a 2% increase [5]. - The company forecasts fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings between $6.25 and $7.25 per share, exceeding analysts' estimate of $5.99 [5]. - The sales outlook for fiscal 2026 was lowered to a range of $41.9 billion to $43.5 billion, down from a previous forecast of $48.8 billion to $51.2 billion, with analysts expecting $42.141 billion [5]. Margin and Cash Flow Projections - The company projects an adjusted EBIT margin of 6% to 6.6% for the upcoming fiscal year [6]. - Anticipated strong free cash flow is expected to be utilized for share repurchases under the current buyback authorization [6]. Stock Performance - At the time of publication, Magna International shares increased by 20.56% to $69.70, reaching a new 52-week high [7].

Core Insights - Magna International reported a fourth-quarter sales increase of 2% year-over-year to $10.8 billion, with adjusted EBIT margin expanding by 100 basis points to 7.5% and adjusted EBIT rising 18% to $814 million [3][4][7] - The company anticipates modest sales growth of near flat to 3.5% in 2026, with adjusted EBIT margins projected between 6.0% and 6.6%, reflecting operational excellence and cost management initiatives [6][15] Financial Performance - Fourth-quarter sales were positively impacted by foreign exchange translation, new program launches, and customer recoveries for tariffs, despite lower engineering revenue and complete vehicle sales [2][4] - For the full year 2025, Magna reported approximately $42 billion in sales, with adjusted EBIT margin increasing by 20 basis points to 5.6% and adjusted EBIT rising 2% to $2.4 billion [8][9] Operational Efficiency - Operational excellence initiatives contributed approximately 200 basis points of margin improvement from 2023 to 2026, with expectations for continued gains [5][18] - The company generated $3.6 billion in operating cash flow and $1.9 billion in free cash flow for 2025, supported by disciplined capital spending and efficiency improvements [9][10] Segment Performance - In the fourth quarter, three out of four segments reported higher sales year-over-year, with seating experiencing an 8% increase, while complete vehicle sales declined by 10% due to expected lower engineering revenue [11][12] - Power and vision margins faced pressure from discrete items and unfavorable mix, but management expects considerable margin expansion in this segment by 2026 [13][15] 2026 Outlook - Magna's guidance for 2026 includes adjusted EPS of $6.25 to $7.25, with free cash flow expected to be between $1.6 billion and $1.8 billion [16][17] - The company plans to maintain capital returns through dividend increases and share buybacks, with a $0.01 increase in the quarterly dividend marking the 16th consecutive year of increases [17][19] Market Position - Magna aims for growth of 1% to 4% excluding complete vehicles, driven by advancements in body exteriors and structures, while complete vehicles and seating are expected to decline due to program changes [22] - The company has not lost any incumbent seating programs to competitors and is managing input costs effectively through customer program structures [22]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, sales increased by 2% to $10.8 billion, with adjusted EBIT margin expanding by 100 basis points to 7.5% [8][12] - For the full year, sales were $42 billion, slightly down due to softer volumes in North America and Europe, while adjusted EBIT margin rose by 20 basis points to 5.6% [9][12] - Adjusted EPS for Q4 rose by 29% to $2.18, and for the full year, it increased by 6% to $5.73 [8][9] - Free cash flow for the full year reached $1.9 billion, an increase of $849 million [9][18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Three of the four segments posted higher sales year-over-year, with seating seeing an 8% increase, while complete vehicles were down 10% [16] - Body exteriors and structures, and seating segments posted strong increases in adjusted EBIT margin year-over-year [16][17] - Power and vision margins were negatively impacted by discrete items, but operational improvements are expected to drive margin expansion in 2026 [17][61] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global light vehicle production was down 1% overall in Q4, with North America and China declining, while Europe saw an increase [13] - Magna's sales growth is expected to be near flat to up 3.5% in 2026, driven by new program launches and foreign currency translation benefits [21][22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on operational excellence initiatives, which contributed to margin expansion and are expected to continue delivering benefits in 2026 [10][27] - A disciplined approach to capital spending is emphasized, with plans to repurchase approximately 22 million shares under the NCIB [7][24] - The company aims to maintain strong free cash flow and EPS growth while reducing leverage [7][24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in executing their capital allocation strategy and driving EPS growth alongside strong free cash flow [7][28] - The outlook for 2026 includes expectations for adjusted EBIT margin expansion of 40-100 basis points and free cash flow of $1.6 billion to $1.8 billion [7][22] Other Important Information - The company achieved significant operational milestones in 2025, including securing 90% of its 2028 business and receiving 151 customer awards for quality and performance [9][10] - The company has been recognized as one of the world's most ethical companies and most admired companies [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: Guidance for outgrowth ex complete vehicles of 1%-4% - Management attributed the outgrowth to operational excellence activities and new programs with favorable economic terms [31][34] Question: Operational excellence and commercial recoveries - Management indicated that operational excellence is a continuing journey with visibility on margin improvements, while commercial recoveries are expected to be neutral year-over-year [36][39] Question: Seating segment outlook and cost actions - Management confirmed that no incumbent seating programs have been lost, and the seating segment remains core and profitable despite some program roll-offs [44][46] Question: Free cash flow sustainability - Management expects free cash flow in the range of $1.6 billion to $1.8 billion to be sustainable, supported by disciplined CapEx [49] Question: Ford recall and warranty hit - Management clarified that one recall matter has been resolved, while another is ongoing, impacting margins in the power and vision segment [52][59] Question: Growth in power and vision segment - Management highlighted that growth is driven by new launches and operational improvements, with expectations for margin expansion in 2026 [61][62]

Core Insights - Xiaomi's electric car venture has overtaken Tesla in China for January sales, with the YU7 SUV selling 37,869 units compared to Tesla's 16,845 Model Y vehicles [1] - The Model Y, previously the best-selling model in December, dropped to 20th place in January, and among new energy vehicles, it fell from first to seventh [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - The Xiaomi YU7 SUV ranked first in China by sales in January, achieving sales of 37,869 units [1] - Tesla's Model Y saw a significant decline in sales, with only 16,845 units sold, marking a drop from its previous top position [1] Group 2: Market Positioning - Xiaomi launched the YU7 at a starting price 10,000 yuan ($1,450) lower than the Model Y in China, indicating a competitive pricing strategy [3] - The company claims that the YU7 outperforms Tesla's Model Y in key metrics, such as driving range on a single battery charge [3] Group 3: Product Launch Timeline - The YU7, Xiaomi's second electric car model, was introduced approximately six months ago in the summer of 2025 [2]

Overall Situation - In December 2025, China's passenger car terminal sales reached 2.278 million units, a month-on-month increase of 13.6% [1] - New energy passenger car sales totaled 1.334 million units in November 2025, with a month-on-month growth of 9.0% [1] - Breakdown of new energy vehicle sales: pure electric vehicles sold 781,000 units (up 0.9%), plug-in hybrids sold 412,000 units (up 23%), and range-extended vehicles sold 142,000 units (up 24.6%) [1] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the passenger car market reached 57.4% in December, slightly down from 60.1% in the previous month [1] - Total new energy passenger car sales for 2025 are projected at 12.338 million units, a 15% increase from 10.744 million units in 2024 [1] - The annual penetration rate for new energy vehicles in 2025 is expected to be 53.4%, marking the first time it exceeds 50% [1] Automotive Market Overview - The expiration of the vehicle purchase tax exemption has led to outstanding performance in new energy terminal retail, achieving a historical high [3] - Despite the expected year-end buying spree due to the tax exemption, many provinces have exhausted their budgets for trade-in policies, creating a counteracting effect on purchase incentives [3] Brand Rankings - The top-selling pure electric models in December 2025 include Tesla Model Y (500,000 units), Star Wish (400,000 units), and Xiaomi YU7 (390,000 units) [6][7] - The top-selling plug-in hybrid models include BYD Qin PLUS (360,000 units), Titanium 7 (310,000 units), and BYD Song Pro (170,000 units) [8][9] - The top-selling range-extended models include Aion M7 (123,000 units), Ideal L6 (93,000 units), and Aion M8 (82,000 units) [10]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi acknowledges the criticism regarding the "small text" in its promotional materials and commits to clearer communication in future advertisements to avoid misunderstandings [1][4]. Group 1: Background and Context - The "small text" controversy primarily arose in September 2025, with over 30 promotional posters featuring such text [5][28]. - Xiaomi's public relations manager, Xu Jieyun, stated that the "small text" was included for compliance with advertising laws, and the company is open to feedback [1][4]. Group 2: Changes in Promotional Materials - A comparison of promotional posters from September 2025 and December 2025 to January 2026 shows a significant reduction in the use of "small text," with only 13 instances noted in the latter period [29][65]. - The "small text" in December 2025 posters was larger and clearer, indicating an improvement in readability compared to the September 2025 materials [43][65]. Group 3: Specific Examples - In September 2025, multiple promotional posters included "small text" that provided additional information, such as sales data sources and promotional details [7][10][13]. - By December 2025, several promotional materials, including those for car purchases and training programs, either eliminated "small text" or made it more legible [31][35][41].

Core Insights - The global automotive industry is at a significant turning point, with autonomous driving technology poised for explosive growth, transitioning from traditional driving models [1] - China is leading the global race in autonomous driving, holding approximately 60% of the L2+ autonomous vehicle market share, driven by its success in electric vehicles and data collection capabilities [1][5][8] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The competition in the U.S. market is intensifying, particularly between Waymo and Tesla, with Waymo rapidly expanding its operations to major cities and Tesla focusing on a low-cost, vision-based approach [2][11] - The report compares the current sensor technology debate to the historical "War of the Currents," suggesting that different technological paths may coexist in the long term [2][18] Group 2: Future Projections - Morgan Stanley predicts a significant increase in the adoption of autonomous vehicles, estimating 2.2 million robotaxis by 2030, 245 million by 2040, and 722 million by 2050 [2][23] - The report emphasizes that autonomous driving will serve as the "ultimate accelerator" for the electric vehicle industry, fundamentally transforming transportation and economic models [2] Group 3: Technological Advancements - The concept of "data probes" is highlighted, indicating that electric vehicles act as mobile data collectors, enhancing AI algorithms through continuous data collection and improvement [8] - The report notes that the cost advantages of Chinese manufacturers, such as Xiaomi, demonstrate their competitive edge in the autonomous driving race [5] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - In the U.S., two distinct paths for autonomous driving technology are emerging: Waymo's sensor redundancy approach and Tesla's sensor parsimony strategy, each with its own advantages and challenges [11][16] - The report mentions various emerging companies globally, such as Wayve in the UK and WeRide in China, which are accelerating the development of autonomous driving technologies [26]

December 21, 2025 11:35 PM GMT The Robot Almanac Vol. 6: Autonomous Vehicles Morgan Stanley Global Embodied AI Team December 2025 The content addressing private companies is being provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation or imply future research coverage if the company goes public. Content is based on unaudited information. No investment recommendation is provided as there is limited public information available for private companies. Investors should conduct their own ...