Core Insights - Tesla's sales showed signs of recovery in June, driven by the delivery of the revamped Model Y, with notable increases in key markets like China, Norway, and Spain [1][2][3] - Despite the positive performance in certain regions, Tesla continues to face significant competition and declining sales in other European markets and the U.S. [1][4] Group 1: Sales Performance - Tesla's Shanghai factory delivered 71,599 vehicles in June, marking a 0.8% year-on-year increase and a 16% month-on-month increase, the first year-on-year growth in nine months [1][2] - In Norway, Tesla's vehicle registrations increased by 54% in June, with Model Y registrations soaring by 115.3% to 5,004 units, making it the best-selling model in June [3] - Spain also saw strong performance, with Tesla's sales rising by 60.7% to 2,632 units, and Model Y sales increasing by 127.2% to 1,179 units [3] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Tesla's main competitor in China, BYD, reported a global sales increase of 11% to 377,628 vehicles in June, significantly outpacing Tesla [2] - Xiaomi's new YU7 SUV is priced nearly 4% lower than the Model Y, indicating increasing competition in the electric vehicle market [2] - In Europe, Tesla's sales are declining in key markets such as Sweden, Denmark, France, and Italy, with significant drops in registrations [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite the June rebound, Tesla's overall performance for Q2 is expected to be disappointing, with a 6.8% year-on-year decline in sales of Chinese-made electric vehicles from April to June [4] - Counterpoint Research predicts a 10% decline in Tesla's global electric vehicle sales for 2025, while BYD's sales are expected to grow by 45% [5] - The recent model updates may provide only a short-term boost, as new model launches have not occurred since 2020, raising concerns about the sustainability of sales growth [5]

Core Insights - Xpeng is maintaining strong sales momentum with 34,611 car deliveries in June, marking its eighth consecutive month of over 30,000 deliveries, despite intense competition from BYD and others in the Chinese electric vehicle market [1][2] Industry Overview - The electric vehicle price war in China has intensified, leading to government criticism of excessive competition, with President Xi Jinping calling for better governance of low-price competition [3] - BYD remains the dominant player in the market, with June sales reaching 377,628 vehicles, contributing to a total of 2.1 million vehicles sold in the first half of the year [13] Competitor Performance - Xpeng's competitors have shown mixed results: - Zeekr reported 16,702 deliveries in June, down 11.7% month-over-month and 16.9% year-over-year [4] - Nio delivered 24,925 cars in June, showing slight growth due to its premium and lower-priced brands [4] - Li Auto delivered 36,279 vehicles in June, a decline of 11.2% from May, but exceeded its second-quarter guidance with 111,074 total deliveries [5] - Xiaomi reported over 25,000 electric car deliveries in June, with significant demand for its new YU7 SUV, which is priced lower than Tesla's Model Y [8][9] Market Dynamics - Tesla's sales in China are estimated at approximately 128,000 units for Q2, down 12% year-over-year, facing pressure from new model launches by Chinese brands [10] - Tesla's market share in China's new energy vehicle segment has slightly declined, with retail sales just over 200,000 vehicles in the first five months of the year [11] - Leapmotor and Aito reported strong growth with record deliveries of 48,006 and 44,685 cars respectively in June [12] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that BYD, Xiaomi, and Geely are likely to survive potential industry consolidation, while Nio may face risks due to financial challenges despite having a strong product lineup [14]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi's Investor Day revealed optimistic growth projections for 2025, including over 30% revenue growth and over 40% net profit growth year-on-year, supported by multiple business segments [2][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Xiaomi expects its 2025 revenue to grow by more than 30% year-on-year, with adjusted net profit anticipated to exceed 40% growth [2]. - The smartphone segment is projected to see an average selling price (ASP) increase of 3-5% and maintain a gross margin of 12-12.5% [2]. - The AIoT business is also expected to grow over 30% year-on-year, with a gross margin expansion of 2.0-2.5 percentage points [2]. Group 2: Electric Vehicle Business - Xiaomi's smart electric vehicle (EV) business is expected to achieve profitability starting in Q3 2025, aligning with Deutsche Bank's previous expectations [3]. - The company anticipates a net loss of 69 million RMB in Q2 2025, followed by net profits of 400 million RMB and 2.63 billion RMB in Q3 and Q4, respectively [3]. - Projected delivery volumes for 2025 are 86,600 units in Q2, 100,000 units in Q3, and 137,500 units in Q4, totaling 400,000 units for the year, surpassing the previous guidance of 350,000 units [3][4]. Group 3: Global Expansion Plans - Xiaomi plans to enter overseas markets for smart electric vehicles starting in 2027, significantly expanding its retail network [5]. - The number of Xiaomi Mi stores is expected to grow from approximately 500 in 2025 to 3,000 in 2026, aiming for a total of 10,000 stores by 2030 [5]. Group 4: Semiconductor Development - Xiaomi is accelerating its self-research in automotive semiconductors, with plans to begin production of automotive semiconductor products soon [6]. - The company has committed to investing 50 billion RMB in chip development over ten years, with 13.5 billion RMB already invested by February 2025 and an expected 6 billion RMB in R&D for 2025 [6][7].

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint indicates that the recent auction results for US and Japanese long-term bonds show weak demand, raising concerns about US debt liquidity and fiscal sustainability, leading to a significant drop in US stocks and a rise in gold prices by 4.8% [1] - Analysts have collectively revised the US GDP growth forecast upward for the year while lowering CPI inflation expectations, maintaining the outlook for the Federal Reserve to cut rates twice this year [1] Fixed Income - The report suggests that the Federal Reserve is currently in a "data-dependent mode," likely to hold rates steady in June, but may start cutting rates between July and September if economic data continues to weaken [2] - It is recommended to pay attention to the value of interbank certificates of deposit following the recent reduction in deposit rates [3] Real Estate Industry - The report notes an increase in new home transactions both month-on-month and year-on-year, with a similar trend observed in second-hand home sales [6] - The LPR was adjusted down by 10 basis points, with the 5-year LPR now at 3.5% and the 1-year LPR at 3% [6] - Investment recommendations include major developers like China Resources Land and Poly Developments, as well as property management firms such as China Resources Vientiane Life and Greentown Service [6] Retail Industry - The retail sales total for April was reported at 3.72 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.1%, maintaining a high growth rate [7] - Investment opportunities in the consumer sector include beauty care brands like Maogeping and pet food companies like Guibao Pet [7] Oil Industry - The report highlights that the EIA and IEA have raised their global oil demand forecasts for 2025, with recommendations for companies like CNOOC and Sinopec [8] Gas Industry - The report anticipates a relaxed supply of gas and cost optimization for gas companies, with a focus on companies like Xin'ao Energy and China Gas [9] Electric Power Equipment Industry - The report indicates that Tesla is set to ramp up production of humanoid robots, with significant growth expected in the electric vehicle sector [11] - The domestic sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.23 million units in April, with a projected annual growth of 25-30% [11] Construction Materials Industry - The report suggests a continued recommendation for consumer building materials, with expectations for the home improvement sector to benefit from stimulus policies [12][13] - It highlights the potential for infrastructure projects in the Midwest to provide a buffer against external demand fluctuations [13] Pharmaceutical Industry - The report emphasizes the growth potential in the innovative drug sector, recommending companies like BeiGene and Hengrui Medicine [15][16] Non-Bank Financial Industry - The report indicates that the non-bank financial sector is currently undervalued, with a focus on insurance and securities firms benefiting from economic recovery [19] Precious Metals Industry - The report notes that gold prices have surged due to concerns over US fiscal health and fluctuating tariff policies, with gold closing at $3,357.70 per ounce [20] Coal Industry - The report indicates that coal prices are stabilizing after a period of decline, with recommendations for companies like Guanghui Energy and Haohua Energy [21]

Group 1 - The company held a strategic product launch event celebrating its 15th anniversary, introducing multiple new products including the YU7 SUV, 15S Pro smartphone, and 7 Ultra tablet [1] - The YU7 SUV is positioned as a mid-to-large luxury high-performance electric vehicle, expected to launch in May 2025, featuring impressive specifications such as a maximum power of 690PS and a range of 835km [1] - The company has achieved significant sales milestones with its SU7 model, delivering over 258,000 units by May 2025, indicating strong demand in the over 200,000 price segment [1] Group 2 - The company has developed its own mobile SoC, the玄戒O1, which will debut in the 15S Pro smartphone and 7 Ultra tablet, making it the fourth global company to design a 3nm process mobile SoC [2] - The玄戒O1 chip integrates 19 billion transistors and has a main frequency of 3.9GHz, while the玄戒T1 chip includes a self-developed 4G baseband [2] - The company has invested over 13.5 billion yuan in chip research and development, with plans to invest over 60 billion yuan by 2025 and 200 billion yuan from 2026 to 2030 [2] Group 3 - The company experienced a 15.7% year-on-year increase in total smartphone shipments in 2024, reaching 168.5 million units, with improved market share in various regions [3] - The high-end smartphone segment has seen growth, with the domestic high-end smart device shipment proportion increasing by 3.0 percentage points to 23.3% in 2024 [3] - The company plans to expand its retail presence internationally, aiming to open approximately 10,000 new Xiaomi stores overseas in the next five years [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group-W (01810.HK) [1] Core Views - The company continues to focus on the "people, vehicles, and home" ecosystem, launching new products such as the YU7 SUV and the Xuanjie chips, which are expected to drive growth [7] - The YU7 SUV is positioned as a high-performance luxury vehicle with impressive specifications, including a maximum horsepower of 690 PS and a range of 835 km, which is the highest for mid-to-large electric SUVs [7] - The self-developed Xuanjie O1 chip marks Xiaomi as the fourth company globally to design a 3nm process mobile SoC, enhancing its product capabilities [7] - The company is expanding its high-end product offerings, with a 15.7% year-on-year increase in total smartphone shipments in 2024, and a 3% increase in the domestic high-end smartphone market share [7] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to grow from CNY 270.97 billion in 2023 to CNY 691.16 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.62% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase significantly from CNY 17.48 billion in 2023 to CNY 59.31 billion in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 26.93% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from CNY 0.67 in 2023 to CNY 2.29 in 2027 [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 73.19 in 2023 to 21.56 in 2027, indicating improving valuation [1] Market Position - Xiaomi's market capitalization is approximately CNY 1,043.39 million, with a closing price of HKD 53.00 [5] - The company has a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 6.47 and a debt-to-asset ratio of 53.07% [6] - The company aims to expand its retail presence internationally, planning to open around 10,000 new Xiaomi stores overseas in the next five years [7]