当地时间11月24日，诺和诺德宣布，公司的Ozempic口服版本在两项大型临床试验中未能减缓阿尔茨海默病进 展，这一被视为长远投资的尝试宣告失败。基于认知评估结果，服用该药物的患者并未出现显著好转。 消息公布后，诺和诺德股价周一在丹麦哥本哈根交易所一度暴跌超12%，触及2021年7月以来最低水平。当天 美股开盘后，其股价一度暴跌超9%，截至收盘，跌5.58%，总市值缩水至1996亿美元。 超级巨头突遭猛烈抛售。 美东时间11月24日，丹麦制药巨头诺和诺德美股股价遭遇重挫，盘中一度暴跌超9%。其股价当天在丹麦哥本 哈根交易所更是一度暴跌超12%。美股周二盘前，诺和诺德股价再度小幅走弱，现跌0.36%。消息面上，该公 司最新公布的临床试验数据显示，使用司美格鲁肽治疗早期阿尔茨海默病未见显著疗效，数千名参与研究的患 者均未出现明显改善。 有分析指出，对诺和诺德而言，阿尔茨海默病试验失败意味着又一起重大挫折。受下一代减肥药效果不及预 期、竞争对手蚕食市场份额等一系列利空消息影响，其股价年内累计跌幅已超46%。相比之下，诺和诺德在减 肥药领域的头号竞争对手——礼来公司股价则持续走高，成为第一家市值突破1万亿美元的制药公 ...

Core Viewpoint - Eli Lilly has become the first pharmaceutical company to reach a market capitalization of $1 trillion, driven by strong demand for weight loss and diabetes medications, with its stock price rising nearly 40% this year [2][18]. Group 1: Market Performance - Eli Lilly's stock rose by 1.60% on Friday, contributing to a year-to-date increase of nearly 40% [2][3]. - The healthcare ETF in the U.S. has seen a rise of over 2% on Friday and a cumulative increase of 12% this year, reflecting growing investor enthusiasm for the pharmaceutical sector [5][6]. Group 2: Competitive Advantage - Eli Lilly is rapidly distancing itself from competitors due to the overwhelming advantage of its GLP-1 class drugs, with its weight loss drug Zepbound expected to dominate the market despite only launching at the end of 2023 [4][9]. - The company is on the brink of a significant new product cycle in biopharmaceuticals, with its oral weight loss candidate orforglipron being highlighted as one of the most important new product cycles in the industry [9][10]. Group 3: Future Prospects - Eli Lilly's management has indicated that global regulatory submissions for orforglipron are imminent, with expectations for a U.S. market launch next year [10]. - The company is also advancing in next-generation obesity compounds, with promising data from the second phase of the selective incretin agonist eloralintide, which showed a weight loss of 20.1% [11][12]. Group 4: Financial Considerations - Eli Lilly's largest shareholder, the Lilly Foundation, has been selling shares, with a record $2.4 billion in stock sold in Q4 2025, raising concerns about valuation [16][17]. - The company’s forward P/E ratio for 2026 is projected at 41 times, significantly higher than the pharmaceutical industry average of 16 times, leading to debates about its valuation [19]. - Forecasts suggest that Eli Lilly's two flagship drugs could generate annual sales exceeding $40 billion by 2026, potentially justifying the high valuation [20].

Core Viewpoint - Eli Lilly has become the first pharmaceutical company to reach a market capitalization of $1 trillion, driven by strong demand for weight loss and diabetes medications, as well as a sector rotation of funds from technology to healthcare [1][12]. Group 1: Market Performance - Eli Lilly's stock rose by 1.60% on Friday, with a cumulative increase of nearly 40% this year, leading to a market capitalization surpassing $1 trillion [1][2]. - The healthcare ETF in the U.S. has increased by over 2% on Friday and has risen 12% year-to-date, reflecting growing investor enthusiasm for the pharmaceutical sector [4]. Group 2: Product Development and Sales - Eli Lilly's weight loss drug sales more than doubled year-over-year in Q3, generating $10.1 billion in revenue from diabetes treatment Mounjaro and weight loss drug Zepbound [5]. - The company is on the verge of launching its oral weight loss candidate orforglipron in the U.S. market next year, which is expected to significantly expand the target market due to its convenience [8]. - Eli Lilly's next-generation obesity compounds, such as eloralintide and retatrutide, are showing promising results, with eloralintide demonstrating a weight loss of 20.1% in Phase II trials [9][10]. Group 3: Valuation and Investor Sentiment - The largest shareholder, the Lilly Foundation, has been selling shares, with a record $2.4 billion in stock sold in Q4 2025, raising concerns about valuation as the company's forward P/E ratio is 41 times, significantly higher than the industry average of 16 times [11][12]. - Despite valuation concerns, projections indicate that Eli Lilly's two flagship drugs could generate over $40 billion in annual sales by 2026 and approach $60 billion by 2030, potentially justifying the high valuation [12]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Eli Lilly's GLP-1 drugs are gaining a significant market share, surpassing competitors like Novo Nordisk's Wegovy in new obesity prescriptions [3]. - The company faces potential competition from other pharmaceutical giants like Amgen and Pfizer as it approaches a significant patent cliff, which could impact future revenue [13].

得益于减肥和糖尿病药物的强劲需求推动，礼来公司成为全球首家跻身万亿美元俱乐部的制药企业。 周五礼来美股股价收涨1.60%，今年已累计上涨近40%。公司市值突破1万亿美元，加入了科技七巨头以及巴菲特旗下伯克希尔·哈撒韦在内的万亿 美元市值企业行列。 （周五礼来收涨 1.60%） 用于治疗糖尿病的Mounjaro和用于减肥的Zepbound在该季度合计创造了101亿美元的收入。Morningstar医疗研究主管Karen Andersen表示： 目前很难找到礼来战略的漏洞。一切都对礼来有利。 她指出，去年8月新型减肥药物orforglipron试验结果令人失望导致股价下跌，"这是我能想到的礼来唯一的负面消息"。 Neuberger Berman投资组合经理Rick Bradt则表示，礼来股价近几周的快速上涨部分源于投资者从追逐人工智能增长的大型科技公司转向其他板 块。他说： 华尔街见闻提及，礼来凭借其GLP-1类药物的压倒性优势，正迅速拉开与竞争对手的差距。 尽管礼来的减肥药Zepbound在2023年底才上市，但随着产能的提升和新临床数据的出现，已成功超越诺和诺德的Wegovy，占据了新增肥胖症药物 处方的绝大 ...

Core Insights - Pfizer is making significant moves in the weight management market, which is expected to grow rapidly in the next decade, potentially rewarding leading companies handsomely [1][2] - The acquisition of Metsera for $7 billion, with potential milestone payments bringing the total to $10 billion, positions Pfizer as a strong contender in the weight management space [3][4] - Pfizer's CEO, Albert Bourla, expressed confidence in the company's ability to succeed in the obesity market, drawing parallels to past successes with drugs like Lipitor and COVID products [7] Company Developments - Pfizer's acquisition of Metsera indicates its commitment to entering the weight management market, especially after competing with Novo Nordisk for the deal [3][4] - Metsera's leading candidate, MET-097i, has shown promising results in clinical trials, indicating potential for substantial weight loss and good tolerability [6] - Pfizer plans to launch its first anti-obesity drug by the end of 2028, although Eli Lilly currently holds a significant lead with existing products on the market [8] Competitive Landscape - Eli Lilly is currently the leader in the weight management market with its product Zepbound, which has seen exceptional sales growth [8][11] - Eli Lilly has several promising candidates in its pipeline, including orforglipron and retatrutide, which are expected to enhance its competitive position [9][10][11] - Despite Pfizer's efforts, Eli Lilly's established presence and upcoming product launches may allow it to maintain its leadership in the anti-obesity market for the foreseeable future [11] Financial Outlook - Pfizer's recent financial performance has been underwhelming, with concerns about the impending patent cliff for its top growth driver, Eliquis [13] - However, the acquisition of Metsera and the potential success in the weight management sector could help Pfizer rebound [14] - The company also has a strong dividend program, which may attract investors despite current challenges [15]

Bond Market - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 1.67 basis points to 3.568%[2] - The 5-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 1.04 basis points to 3.672%[4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remained unchanged at 4.067%[4] Economic Data - The Baltic Dry Index closed at 2072.00, down 0.58%[5] - The Nasdaq Index closed at 23406.46, down 0.26%[5] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 48254.82, up 0.68%[5] - The ICE Brent Crude Oil price was $62.68, down 3.81%[5] - The London Gold price was $4194.61, up 1.68%[5] - The USD/CNY exchange rate (CFETS) was 7.12, down 0.05%[5] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26922.73, up 0.85%[5] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4000.14, down 0.07%[5]

礼来(LLY.US)涨超3%，最高触及1019.98美元，续刷历史新高。消息面上，礼来公布实验性减肥药物 eloralintide 2期临床研究的积极结果。在第48周时，eloralintide各剂量组均达到主要终点，平均体重降幅 为9.5%至20.1%，优于安慰剂组0.4%的平均降幅（使用有效性估计目标）。基于这些试验结果，礼来将 于次月启动eloralintide肥胖治疗3期临床研究入组。(格隆汇) ...

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all up, with Nasdaq futures rising by 0.61%, S&P 500 futures up by 0.38%, and Dow futures increasing by 0.31% [1] - European stock indices show mixed results, with Germany's DAX index up by 1.22%, UK's FTSE 100 down by 0.1%, France's CAC index up by 1.29%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index rising by 1.25% [1] Company Developments - Wells Fargo indicates a reverse buy signal in the market, raising the S&P 500 index year-end target to 7100 points [3] - AMD anticipates that the data center chip and system market will grow to $1 trillion by 2030 [3] - Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Kioxia plan to increase NAND prices and cut production [3] - Barclays warns that Oracle may run out of cash by November next year, downgrading the company's debt rating to "underweight" [3] - Netflix opens the "Netflix House" theme park in suburban Philadelphia, allowing free public access [3] - Morgan Stanley launches deposit tokens for institutional clients, enabling round-the-clock trading and instant payments [3] - Eli Lilly will start Phase 3 clinical trial enrollment for eloralintide, a treatment for obesity, next month [3] - Sony launches a low-cost version of the PS5 in Japan, set to be released on November 21 [3] - FedEx reports adjusted EPS of $4.05 for Q2, exceeding expectations and alleviating market concerns [3] - Tencent Music reports Q3 total revenue growth of 20.6% to 8.46 billion yuan, with net profit increasing by 36% to 2.15 billion yuan [3] - Oklo, a nuclear power company, reports a Q3 net loss widening to $29.7 million, which is worse than expected [3]

Core Insights - Eli Lilly has established itself as the leader in the weight loss market with its drug Zepbound, which is currently the best-selling medicine in this niche [1][2] - The demand for anti-obesity medicines is expected to rise significantly, and despite increasing competition, Eli Lilly is likely to maintain its top position [2] Company Developments - Zepbound has demonstrated high efficacy in weight management, but competitors are developing alternative formulations such as oral or monthly options to capture market share [3] - Eli Lilly is also advancing its pipeline with eloralintide, an investigational amylin agonist, which showed a 20.1% mean decrease in body weight in a phase 2 trial compared to 0.4% in the placebo group [5] - The company is still competitive in the market, as it continues to innovate and develop new therapies [6] Financial Performance - Eli Lilly's tirzepatide has surpassed Merck's Keytruda as the world's best-selling drug, generating approximately $10 billion in sales in the third quarter, with projections suggesting it could reach nearly $62 billion by 2030 [8] - The company's shares are trading at 27 times forward earnings, which is above the healthcare average of 17.4, indicating strong financial performance [7] Future Outlook - New weight loss medications, including orforglipron and retatrutide, are expected to further boost sales, with orforglipron on track to become one of the first approved oral GLP-1 therapies [9] - Eli Lilly's ongoing clinical and regulatory advancements in the rapidly growing therapeutic area of anti-obesity medicines suggest that the stock remains reasonably valued [10]

今年早些时候，《自然综述内分泌学》（nature reviews endocrinology）文章称，胰淀素受体已 被证实是有效的药物靶点，而胰淀素模拟物正成为治疗超重、肥胖和糖尿病的新型疗法。 2025.11. 10 本文字数：1155，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 钱童心 过去的一个周末，辉瑞和诺和诺德两大巨头之间针对减重药厂商Metsera的戏剧性竞购，最终以辉瑞 胜出告终。辉瑞斥资100亿美元拿下的减重药管线中，包含了目前业内竞争相当激烈的一款胰淀素药 物。 胰淀素（Amylin）药物模拟的是胰腺激素淀粉样蛋白的作用机制，它与目前已经上市的GLP-1类药 物模拟肠促胰岛素的靶点机制不同，但都具有抑制食欲、减少摄食的作用。 微信编辑 | 雨林 第 一 财 经 持 续 追 踪 财 经 热 点 。 若 您 掌 握 公 司 动 态 、 行 业 趋 势 、 金 融 事 件 等 有 价 值 的 线 索 ， 欢 迎 提 供 。 专 用 邮 箱 ： bianjibu@yicai.com 目前，包括诺和诺德、礼来、艾伯维和罗氏在内的跨国巨头都在开发靶向胰淀素的减重药。 尽管专家表示，目前这种新一代减重疗法仍在 ...