（梁永慧为招金精炼有限公司副总经理） 一、重点事件解析 （一）非农数据显著疲软推动金价反弹 8月1日，美国劳工部发布的7月非农就业数据成为引发黄金市场剧烈波动的核心因素。该数据显示，7月 美国失业率环比上升0.1个百分点至4.2%；当月非农业部门新增就业岗位7.3万个，远低于市场预期的11 万个。更值得关注的是，5月和6月非农就业岗位数量从此前公布的14.4万和14.7万大幅下修至1.9万和1.4 万，下调幅度合计达25.8万人，这一修正揭示出美国劳动力市场可能存在结构性疲软问题，引发市场强 烈反应。 数据公布后，美元指数当日大幅下跌1.38%。投资者对美国经济前景的担忧迅速升温，避险情绪显著上 升，推动黄金价格快速上涨。伦敦金价格不仅重新站稳3300美元/盎司关口，还突破3350美元/盎司的短 期压力位。 （二）美联储主席人选传闻增添政策不确定性 当地时间8月5日，美国总统特朗普在接受媒体采访时表示，可能很快宣布美联储新任主席人选，已将潜 在候选人范围缩小至四名，且该名单不包括财政部部长斯科特・贝森特。8月7日，特朗普进一步表示， 已选定白宫经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬・米兰接替空出的美联储理事席位，并将继续物 ...

Core Insights - The home furnishing industry is undergoing significant changes due to shifts in consumer behavior and the real estate market, leading to a transformation not seen in the last thirty years [1][10] - Traditional retail spaces are experiencing a decline in foot traffic, prompting companies to adapt by exploring new customer acquisition strategies, such as entering new residential developments with model homes [1][4] - The rise of online shopping and direct factory ordering is reshaping how consumers purchase home furnishings, with many opting for lower prices and better deals through online channels [6][7] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The home furnishing market is facing a dual challenge from changing real estate conditions and evolving consumer preferences, resulting in a need for companies to adapt quickly [1][10] - Many companies that previously expanded during optimistic times are now struggling as customer footfall has drastically decreased, leading to a "cliff-like" drop in sales [10][11] - The demand for home furnishings remains, but the way consumers engage with the market has shifted, particularly among younger generations who prefer online interactions [10][11] Group 2: New Business Strategies - Companies are increasingly focusing on new residential developments by creating "model homes" to attract customers directly within communities [4][5] - The competition for model homes has intensified, with multiple companies vying for the same residential projects, leading to a saturated market in new developments [5] - Some companies are leveraging social media platforms to drive customer engagement, with a significant portion of their sales now coming from online channels [6][11] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly favoring direct factory orders over traditional retail purchases, often finding significant cost savings by bypassing retail markups [7][9] - The experience of visiting factories has become appealing to consumers, as they seek transparency in production processes and better pricing [9] - The shift towards online platforms for product discovery and purchasing is leading to a decline in the relevance of traditional home furnishing showrooms [11]

英维克今日涨停，日内股价创历史新高，换手率11.18%，成交额42.76亿元。龙虎榜数据显示，深股通 净卖出9214万元；四家机构买入1.12亿元，卖出3.06亿元，净卖出1.95亿元。 (本文来自第一财经) ...

对于大模型初创企业，一些商业模式是不健康的 2025年上半年，大模型的行业应用爆发式增长。 DeepSeek在全国数以十万计的企业层面，起到了AI技术"扫盲"的作用。但在商业化层面，阿里巴巴、阶跃星辰以及百度等企业先行一 步，衔接起上下游合作方，率先跑通了业务流程。 开源在中国已成风潮，阿里巴巴、百度等企业都有开源模型。但在大模型落地具体行业和公司的时候，开源和闭源之争仍在继续。 阶跃星辰一直走的是超级模型和超级应用并重的路线。基础模型强调通用的能力，像尚未选择专业的本科生，应用则相当于本科生已进 行专业训练。阶跃星辰两方面都不愿意舍弃，因为模型能力决定应用的上限，而应用也给模型提供具体的场景和数据反馈。 阶跃星辰的主要收入来源，也主要是企业端，而非普通消费者。手机产业目前是它最活跃的落地场景，国内头部手机企业中一半都有合 作。此外，它的合作方还包括了一些汽车企业，比如和吉利共同打造智能座舱等。 2025年的春节，DeepSeek大模型发布。尽管OpenAI率先撬动了大模型技术，但在中国企业界完成AI技术"扫盲"的是DeepSeek，它在数以 十万计的中国企业间，迅速完成了一次知识普及。DeepSeek短期内 ...

当地时间8月7日，德国汽车工业协会（VDA）发布声明称，当前美国对欧洲汽车27.5%的行业关税"仍 然有效"，呼吁欧盟与美国之间达成的贸易协议需要立即实施，以为汽车行业带来实质性缓解。 目前，欧盟仍需等待美国总统特朗普签署新行政命令，相关协议内容才能生效。 不过，美欧贸易紧张局势的"至暗时刻"可能已经过去。德国ifo经济研究所最新数据显示，7月汽车行业 商业气候指数显著回升，虽然仍处于负值区间，但已从-31.6上升至-23.8，行业商业预期指数也从-27.3 改善至-19.3。 牛津经济研究院助理经济学家巴克斯特（Samuel Bakst）对第一财经记者表示，协议的确降低了欧盟和 美国之间贸易战重新升级的下行风险，"但目前仍在等待上月达成的贸易协议更多实施细则的公布。已 披露的有限细节持续加剧经济不确定性，我们预计这种不确定性将持续影响市场直至年底。" 特朗普政府自4月开始实施25%的汽车关税，叠加6月美国将钢铁和铝进口关税从25%提高至50%的政策 影响，整个汽车行业面临前所未有的压力。 在关税冲击下，多家欧洲汽车巨头近期纷纷下调财务预期。7月，大众汽车公司披露，美国关税已导致 其上半年利润减少约15亿美元 ...

Group 1 - The craft beer segment is becoming increasingly crowded, with companies like Wuliangye and Haoxiangni entering the market, indicating a growing interest in craft beer despite the challenges of differentiation [1][2] - Wuliangye plans to launch a high-end craft beer named "Fenghuolun" priced at 19.5 yuan per can, while Zhenjiu Liduo Group is introducing a new beer called "Niushi" priced at 88 yuan per bottle, showing a trend towards premium positioning in the craft beer market [1][2] - The craft beer market is experiencing rapid growth, with a projected market size of approximately 680 billion yuan in 2024, expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2025, driven largely by consumers aged 18 to 35 who contribute 65% of sales [3] Group 2 - The white liquor industry is currently facing a downturn, with a reported production decline of 5.8% in the first half of the year, leading companies to seek opportunities in the craft beer sector [2][4] - New entrants in the craft beer market are drawn by the growth potential, but the industry is also experiencing a "walled city" effect, where established brands dominate, making it difficult for newcomers without strong brand or channel advantages to succeed [4] - The advantages of white liquor companies entering the craft beer market include channel reuse and brand leverage, but they also face challenges such as consumer skepticism regarding their expertise in beer production and the mismatch between the business-oriented nature of liquor and the youthful, niche culture of craft beer [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent policy document issued by multiple government departments aims to promote the innovation and development of the brain-computer interface (BCI) industry in China, outlining five key tasks and specific measures to achieve significant growth by 2027 and 2030 [2][10]. Group 1: Key Tasks and Goals - The document identifies five key tasks: strengthening foundational hardware and software, developing high-performance products, promoting the application of technological achievements, expanding innovation entities, and enhancing industrial support capabilities [4][16]. - By 2027, breakthroughs in key BCI technologies are expected, establishing an advanced technical, industrial, and standard system, with products achieving international standards in various fields [3][15]. - By 2030, the BCI industry is projected to have significantly improved innovation capabilities, nurturing globally influential leading enterprises and a competitive industrial ecosystem [14][15]. Group 2: Market Growth and Projections - According to research data, the BCI market in China is expected to reach a scale of 3.2 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 18.8%, and is projected to grow to 6.14 billion yuan by 2028, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 17.7% [3][10]. Group 3: Regional Development Initiatives - Various regions, including Beijing, Shanghai, and Nanjing, have launched initiatives to accelerate the development of the BCI industry, aiming to establish demonstration zones and achieve large-scale commercialization of BCI products in sectors such as healthcare and education by 2030 [5][6]. - The recent clinical trials of invasive BCI technology in China mark a significant milestone, positioning the country as the second globally to enter this phase [6][10]. Group 4: Specific Measures and Innovations - The document details 17 specific measures, including the development of high-channel, high-speed brain signal acquisition chips, and the creation of innovative non-invasive products such as headsets and glasses [4][24]. - Emphasis is placed on enhancing the performance of implantable devices and integrating advanced features for improved control and response speed [22][23]. Group 5: Collaborative Ecosystem and Standards - The policy encourages collaboration among government, academia, and industry to foster an innovative ecosystem, while also establishing a standard system for BCI technology to ensure quality and safety [36][40]. - The document highlights the importance of talent cultivation and the establishment of specialized institutions to support the growth of the BCI sector [41][42].

江海证券资深投资顾问李龙拴认为，指数上升趋势不变，正在震荡消化前期筹码。深圳德讯证券顾问有 限公司投资顾问刘奎军也认为，A股中线上行趋势依然稳固。国诚投顾朱显东则认为，指数显疲态，需 警惕回落风险。 ...

Group 1 - Huaguang New Materials and Feilong Co., Ltd. both hit the daily limit up in the afternoon trading session [1] - In previous trading, Yingweike also reached the daily limit up, while Qiangrui Technology and Yimikang surged over 10% [1] - Other companies such as Zhongshi Technology, Shenling Environment, Rihai Intelligent, and Chunz中 Technology saw increases of over 5% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing legal battle regarding the Trump administration's imposition of high tariffs on multiple countries raises questions about the limits of executive power and whether such actions are unconstitutional [1][2]. Group 1: Legal Proceedings - The Washington D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals held a hearing to debate whether the Trump administration's tariff actions constitute an overreach of authority [1]. - The case stems from an appeal against a ruling by the U.S. International Trade Court that temporarily blocked the President's broad use of tariffs [1]. - The court is examining the interpretation of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) and whether it grants the President unlimited tariff authority without Congressional approval [2][4]. Group 2: Historical Context and Arguments - The Trump administration's tariffs, which range from 10% to 41%, are based on a broad interpretation of IEEPA, which critics argue has never granted such extensive tariff-setting powers [4][5]. - Historical precedents, such as the Nixon administration's temporary tariffs, are being cited, but the current tariffs lack a specified end date and alter the established tariff schedule [5][6]. - The government argues that IEEPA allows for broad import regulation, while critics assert that the act does not explicitly mention tariffs and that Congress has not authorized such expansive powers [6][8]. Group 3: Potential Outcomes and Implications - If the court rules against the Trump administration, it may lead to significant financial implications, including the potential requirement for the government to refund tariffs already collected [7][9]. - The total tariffs collected under IEEPA and other trade laws have exceeded $150 billion, nearly double the amount from the previous fiscal year [8]. - The complexity of refunding tariffs raises questions about who would be eligible for refunds, as the costs are often passed through the economic system [9].