北京时间1月21日，伦敦金属交易所(LME)铝期货价格小幅走高，开盘报3116美元/吨，现报3113.5美元/ 吨，涨幅0.48%，盘中最高触及3134.5美元/吨，最低下探3104.5美元/吨。 LME铝 3157.5 3164.5 3096.0 3118.5 -1.48% 【铝市场消息速递】 1月20日，上期所铝期货仓单139951吨，环比上个交易日减少1524吨。 1月20日，电解铝现货沪伦比值为7.54，进口盈亏：-2516.03元/吨，上一交易日进口盈亏：-2457.14元/ 吨。 1月20日，伦敦金属交易所（LME）：铝注册仓单452250吨。注销仓单30750吨，减少2000吨。铝库存 483000吨，减少2000吨。 更新时间： LME铝期货行情回顾： 1月20日伦敦金属交易所(LME)铝期货行情 品种 开盘价 最高价 最低价 收盘价 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that CBOT soybean oil futures prices are experiencing an upward trend, with the current price at 52.59 cents per pound, reflecting a 0.13% increase [1] - On January 20, the opening price of soybean oil futures was 52.65 cents per pound, with a closing price of 52.55 cents per pound, showing a slight increase of 0.08% [2] - The highest price during the trading session on January 20 reached 53.19 cents per pound, while the lowest was 52.41 cents per pound [2] Group 2 - Argentine soybean oil prices for February shipment increased by $9 per ton to $1218 per ton, while April shipment prices rose by $16 per ton to $1155 per ton [2] - Domestic soybean oil inventory as of the end of the third week of 2026 is 1.1404 million tons, a decrease of 68,800 tons from the previous week, representing a 5.69% decline [2] - Coastal soybean oil inventory is reported at 1.0395 million tons, down 60,000 tons from the previous week, which is a 5.46% decrease [2] - The national first-class soybean oil transaction volume on January 20 was 21,000 tons, an increase of 31.25% compared to the previous trading day [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen remains weak, with the USD/JPY fluctuating between 157-159, and several investment banks predict it may fall below 160 by year-end, focusing on the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike expectations and the risk of official intervention [1][2]. Monetary Policy - The monetary policy dynamics are a key factor influencing the yen's performance, with the Bank of Japan recently raising the overnight rate to 0.75%, the highest in 30 years. The next rate hike is expected to be delayed until September, although some officials suggest a possibility in April [2]. - Barclays predicts two rate hikes in July and December 2026, with a terminal rate potentially reaching 1.25%, which could rise to over 1.5% if the Federal Reserve resumes rate hikes [2]. Capital Flows - Capital outflows are increasing, with Japanese retail investors net buying overseas stocks at near ten-year highs and corporate M&A activities reaching multi-year peaks. This trend, combined with a resurgence in carry trades, is further weakening the yen [2]. Inflation and Fiscal Factors - Japan's inflation rate has exceeded the Bank of Japan's 2% target for four consecutive years, increasing the pressure on the bond market. The Prime Minister's plan for early elections could lead to expansionary fiscal policies, potentially exacerbating yen depreciation [3]. Technical Analysis - The USD/JPY is currently in a bullish channel, with a range of 157.5-159.5 after reaching a high of 159.45. Short-term moving averages indicate a slight support for the exchange rate, but the overall trend remains bearish [3]. - Key resistance is identified at the 159.5-160 range, with 160 being a significant psychological level and historical intervention point. A breakout above this level could open up further upside potential towards 162-164 [4]. - Support is found at 157.5, close to the 20-day moving average, with further support at 156.8-157.0. The options market shows a strong bias towards USD bullish positions, indicating prevailing sentiment for yen depreciation [4].

以家为名，共话团圆。1月25日，"捷伴同行「家」年华"2026年捷途家宴将在开封温情开启。这场盛宴不仅是捷途与用户一年一度的团圆相聚，也是品牌用 户IP活动在2026年的温暖开篇。届时，来自全球的数百个捷途家庭将跨越山海，欢聚一堂，在欢声笑语与动人故事中，将旅途的豪情，沉淀为家一般的温 暖。 同行八载，捷途持续筑牢用户情感纽带 自2018年品牌创立之初，捷途便围绕"人、车、场景"三大维度，着力构建旅行+出行生态。作为生态落地的重要一环，捷途用户活动持续深化，其中，"捷途 家宴"作为最重要的活动IP之一，已成为品牌与用户情感联结的关键纽带。 以此为基础，捷途在八年时间里逐步打造出以粉丝文化节、方盒子大会及"捷途家宴"为核心的用户活动IP体系，并同步建立起以旅行家联盟和捷行军为核心 的用户组织IP体系。 八年来，捷途持续与用户深度链接、互动，截至目前，捷途汽车已开展25000多场用户活动，累计参与用户123.1万人次。在此过程中，无数动人的车主故事 也广为人知。 此次家宴，捷途将邀请"南京胖哥"邱绍春、"一六零和风"洪小华、"小魏爱旅行"魏宁等车主代表参加，分享他们与捷途相伴的旅行记忆，呈现真实、有温度 的捷途生 ...

Group 1 - The global financial market experienced severe shocks due to movements in the sovereign debt market, driven by U.S. President Trump's latest tariff comments and concerns over Japan's fiscal discipline following the announcement of early elections [1] - A clear shift in market logic occurred, moving from traditional "interest rate shock" narratives to "risk-off shock" driven by sovereign credit and policy uncertainties [1] - Key market indicators showed a comprehensive sell-off in U.S. Treasuries, with long-term yields rising sharply, and the yield curve steepening significantly [1] Group 2 - The Japanese government bond (JGB) market faced a "crash-level" sell-off, with the 30-year bond yield surging by 35 basis points and the 40-year yield nearing a 50 basis point increase, indicating a severe reassessment of Japan's fiscal outlook [2] - The auction results for 20-year bonds were weak, with a bid-to-cover ratio dropping to 3.19 from 4.10, reflecting a depletion of market demand [2] - The USD/JPY exchange rate was trading around 157.80, showing slight declines and testing key support levels, with potential for further downward movement if critical support is breached [2] Group 3 - The short-term outlook for USD/JPY is heavily dependent on the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) response, particularly regarding its bond purchasing operations [3] - If the BoJ increases bond purchases to stabilize the market, it may temporarily alleviate selling pressure on JGBs but could also lead to a depreciation of the yen [3] - Conversely, if the BoJ shows tolerance towards rising yields, it may exacerbate the trust crisis in JGBs, prompting capital outflows and potentially strengthening the yen [3]

值得关注的是，加元对加拿大总理马克.卡尼寻求拓展全球贸易伙伴的相关消息作出了积极反应。卡尼 政府致力于强化与中国的合作关系，目前已签署多项小型贸易协议。不过，受加拿大地理位置限制，且 其经济对美国仍存在巨额依赖，这意味着该国摆脱美国经济影响的空间相对有限。 1月21日回顾前一交易日(1月20日)美国盘初表现，尽管美股自早盘低谷逐步回升，整体市场风险偏好却 依旧处于低迷状态——但这一情绪若仅通过商品货币走势观察，恐怕会得出完全相反的结论。 实际上，澳元、纽元和加元兑美元汇率均录得上涨，这种走势在市场避险情绪升温的环境下实属罕见。 这一异常表现让人联想到去年类似的市场异动，当时特殊交易逻辑曾引发"抛售美元资产"的市场浪潮。 而此次，特朗普对相关议题态度坚决，并无退让迹象，甚至再度重申了收购格陵兰岛的诉求。更令人难 以设想的极端情景是，特朗普可能动用军事力量夺取格陵兰岛控制权。尽管他在面对记者追问时回避了 这一问题，但"吞并"这一构想本身就足以引发市场动荡，给全球市场带来不确定性冲击。 与此同时，美国最高法院就相关政策合法性的裁决再度搁置，结果预计推迟至2月20日公布。这一延迟 为市场预留了充足的反应时间，在特朗普 ...

Supply and Demand Data - National operating rate is at 77.91% with a decrease of 0.18% [1] - Non-integrated operating rate stands at 70.6%, down by 0.25% [1] - International operating rate is at 57.09%, showing a decline of 2.84% [1] - MTO operating rate is at 80.75%, down by 4.67% [1] - Traditional downstream weighted operating rate is at 44.99%, decreasing by 0.08% [1] - MTBE operating rate has decreased [1] - Inland inventory has increased by 0.32wt, while port inventory has decreased by 100,000 tons [1] Market Insights - Methanol futures are experiencing low-level narrow fluctuations, with basis trading as the main focus [1] - Overall basis has slightly strengthened, and daily trading volume remains acceptable [1] - Inland supply remains high, while traditional demand is weak, indicating short-term pressure [1] - Expectations of spring maintenance and new capacity may alleviate long-term pressure [1] - Although port inventory has slightly decreased, MTO demand is weak due to multiple units undergoing maintenance or reducing output [1] - The reduction in inventory for May has significantly weakened, limiting the price rebound potential [1] Key Variables - The two critical variables affecting the market are: 1. The low production levels of Iranian methanol leading to a reduced pace of imported goods arriving at ports, with 310,000 tons shipped from Iran recently [1] 2. The gradual decline of risk premiums associated with previous geopolitical factors [1]

Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of January 20, the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9500 (-50) CNY/ton, and the CIF price for butadiene in China is 1180 (+0) USD/ton. The market price for styrene-butadiene rubber (BR9000) in Shandong Qilu Petrochemical is 11600 (-100) CNY/ton, with a price difference of -3150 (+0) CNY/ton for styrene-butadiene rubber and a basis of 15 (-80) CNY/ton [1]. Production and Operating Rates - In December, China's butadiene production reached 500,100 tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.8%. The production of styrene-butadiene rubber was 144,000 tons, up 10.4% month-on-month. The production of semi-steel tires was 58.39 million units, a slight increase of 0.1% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 3.3%. The production of all-steel tires was 12.86 million units, down 1.2% month-on-month but up 5.5% year-on-year. As of January 15, the operating rates in the styrene-butadiene rubber industry showed differentiation, with the butadiene industry operating rate at 69.4%, down 2.7% month-on-month, while the high-styrene butadiene rubber industry operating rate was 79.7%, up 0.7% month-on-month. The operating rate for semi-steel tire manufacturers was 72.5%, up 13.7% month-on-month, and for all-steel tire manufacturers, it was 63%, up 13.5% month-on-month [2]. Inventory Levels - As of January 14, the port inventory of butadiene was 44,600 tons, an increase of 3,300 tons month-on-month. The factory inventory of styrene-butadiene rubber was 26,900 tons, up 550 tons, representing a month-on-month increase of 2.09%. The inventory held by traders was 8,040 tons, an increase of 1,270 tons, which is an 18.8% month-on-month rise [3]. Industry News - According to Longzhong Information on January 20, the 5,000-ton/year butadiene unit at Maoming Petrochemical has resumed operation, while the downstream SBS unit remains shut down. The 10,000-ton/year butadiene unit is gradually restarting, with downstream styrene-butadiene rubber units also resuming operations [4]. Market Analysis - On January 20, the rubber sector continued to decline, with the main synthetic rubber contract BR2603 closing at 11,585 CNY/ton, down 1.61% from the previous day's settlement price. Starting from the second half of January, multiple domestic butadiene units are set to restart, but due to expectations of increased exports and decreased imports, net import volumes may shrink, leading to a high port inventory that is expected to decline. The supply side shows that some production enterprises in Shandong are selling butadiene resources to alleviate production losses, but the operating rates of styrene-butadiene rubber units remain high, with overall inventory levels also elevated. On the demand side, tire operating rates are expected to recover with the resumption of maintenance enterprises and an increase in export orders. In terms of substitutes, Thailand is still in the peak production season for natural rubber, and the seasonal accumulation of natural rubber in the Qingdao area puts upward pressure on prices. Overall, while the cost side for BR remains firm, the supply side faces significant inventory pressure, and market sentiment is declining, leading to a short-term correction for BR, although the fundamentals are relatively better than natural rubber, suggesting potential for cross-variety arbitrage [5]. Operational Suggestions - Attention is drawn to the opportunity for expanding the price spread between BR2603 and NR2603. The short-term outlook is characterized by volatility [6].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current gold market is exhibiting a strong bullish trend, with prices reaching 1077.57 CNY per gram, an increase of 11.87 CNY or 1.11% from the previous trading day [1][4] - The opening price for the day was 1065.67 CNY per gram, with a daily high of 1078.23 CNY and a low of 1064.40 CNY, indicating significant volatility within the trading session [1] - The geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding potential military actions against Iran, have heightened market risk aversion, leading to increased investment in gold as a safe-haven asset [4] Group 2: EU and US Trade Relations - European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen criticized Trump's economic threats regarding Greenland, stating it violates the trade agreement made in July [2] - Trump has threatened to impose a 10% tariff on goods from eight European countries starting February 1, escalating to 25% in June if no agreement is reached [2] - The EU is considering retaliatory measures, including the reintroduction of tariffs on 93 billion euros (approximately 109 billion USD) worth of US goods and utilizing its strongest trade tools against US actions [2]

今日周三(1月21日)亚盘时段，国际黄金最新报价为1081.28元/克，较前一交易日上涨14.70元，涨幅 1.38%，日内呈现强势反弹走势。当日开盘价报1066.54元/克，盘中最高触及1082.73元/克，最低下探至 1065.18元/克。 【要闻速递】 近期黄金的强势表现是地缘政治风险、货币政策预期及技术面突破三大核心因素共振的结果。 摘要今日周三(1月21日)亚盘时段，国际黄金最新报价为1081.28元/克，较前一交易日上涨14.70元，涨幅 1.38%，日内呈现强势反弹走势。当日开盘价报1066.54元/克，盘中最高触及1082.73元/克，最低下探至 1065.18元/克。 周线图显示，MACD稳居零轴上方，布林带向上开口，黄金牛市或刚起步。 现货黄金周线收阳，站稳4764美元/盎司创历史新高，连续三周上涨由避险情绪、技术突破与宏观基本 面共同推动。技术面看，周线突破尤为关键：金价稳居MA20、MA200均线之上，布林带向上延伸，多 头力量强劲;MACD零轴上方持续改善，看涨动能积聚，多指标发出买入信号。 K线方面，本周触及4781美元后收于4750美元上方，形成强势多头格局，连续三根阳线实体放大 ...