Group 1 - Southeast Asian exporters have increased prices for goods exported to the U.S., transferring some cost pressures to American consumers [1][5] - The UNDP predicts a potential 9.7% decline in Southeast Asia's total exports to the U.S. due to tariff-induced price increases [1][5] - Despite facing cost and profit margin pressures, Asian exports are expected to remain robust, with many countries diversifying their markets away from the U.S. [1][5][6] Group 2 - The China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 upgrade is expected to enhance cooperation in emerging fields, particularly in the digital economy [2][6] - Southeast Asian countries are looking to leverage China's expertise in green technology and high-value manufacturing to diversify their exports [2][6] Group 3 - The signing of trade agreements with the U.S. and China indicates a trend towards trade diversification among Southeast Asian nations [6] - The region's internal trade is expected to grow as countries focus on boosting domestic consumption and reducing reliance on external markets [6][10] Group 4 - Southeast Asian stock markets face challenges in attracting foreign investment due to a lack of AI-related themes and concerns over export slowdowns [12][13] - Structural reforms in the region aim to enhance market liquidity and regulatory transparency, potentially improving the attractiveness of Southeast Asian markets [14][15] Group 5 - The economic outlook for Southeast Asia remains resilient despite external pressures, with a focus on structural reforms and domestic demand improvement [17] - Countries like Malaysia and Singapore are expected to perform well due to strong domestic demand and advancements in technology sectors [13][15]

Core Viewpoint - Dr. Lu Ting, Chief Economist of Nomura China, was awarded the "2025 Annual Institutional Chief Economist" at the CFV Financial Value Annual Conference, marking his second consecutive year receiving this honor [1][3]. Group 1 - The CFV Financial Value Annual Conference is hosted by the authoritative financial media outlet, Yicai, and is influential within the industry [3]. - The award for "2025 Annual Institutional Chief Economist" highlights the recipient's significant contributions and depth of thought in the fields of China's macroeconomic and policy research [3].

Core Insights - The article highlights the role of interest rate strategists in the financial world, focusing on the growth trajectory and essential qualities required for research work in this field [1] Group 1: Rotation System - Nomura's graduate program includes a unique rotation system that occurs after onboarding, allowing new employees to systematically learn from colleagues and gain a deeper understanding of their abilities and interests [2] - This rotation mechanism helps new employees identify their most suitable career paths, laying a solid foundation for long-term professional growth [2] Group 2: Daily Responsibilities of Interest Rate Strategists - Daily responsibilities include morning meetings to summarize significant news from the previous day and forecast the upcoming day [3] - The work is divided into three main parts: research, communication with sales or clients, and report writing, which includes weekly, monthly, and thematic reports [3] Group 3: Junior Talent Board - Nomura has established a Junior Talent Board and Junior Talent Committee to bridge the gap between management and junior employees, providing guidance and support [4] - The committee organizes regular social events and collects feedback on challenges faced by employees, ensuring that their career development needs are addressed [4] Group 4: Essential Qualities for Research Work - Key qualities for research work include an exploratory spirit, curiosity, and self-reflection [6] - Maintaining optimism and a high-quality output in unfamiliar areas is crucial, as is the practice of asking questions to deepen understanding [6] - Continuous self-evaluation and improvement are vital catalysts for professional growth [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite the gap in AI computing power compared to overseas, China is leveraging its rich application scenarios and large user base to explore a differentiated path in AI development [2][3] - The rapid iteration of large model technology is highlighted as a key advantage for the domestic AI market, which can utilize vast consumer and enterprise data for quick application-level advancements [3][4] - China's unique advantage lies in the integration of AI applications with high-precision manufacturing, particularly in fields like autonomous driving and robotics, which is seen as a crucial breakthrough for the AI industry [3][4] Group 2 - The "stock-bond seesaw" effect is expected to continue in the short term, influenced by the current market's lack of a clear mainline [6] - The bond market is significantly affected by stock market sentiment, with daily fluctuations being minor as investors await clearer policy directions [6] - Key variables that could disrupt the current market dynamics include changes in liquidity, which may lead to rising bond yields if liquidity tightens suddenly [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the economic strategies and challenges facing China during the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan," emphasizing the need for high-quality development and structural reforms to achieve the goal of reaching the income levels of moderately developed countries [5][6][8]. Economic Development Strategies - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims for high-quality development rather than specific growth targets, focusing on resolving historical issues, enhancing industrial self-reliance, and promoting inclusive growth [9][10]. - Key conditions for achieving the goal of reaching the income levels of moderately developed countries include increasing industrial added value, promoting inclusive growth, and improving social security systems [8][9]. Manufacturing and Export Growth - China's strong manufacturing sector has been crucial for the rapid growth of exports, with an average annual growth rate of 8% over the past five years, totaling a 45% increase [15]. - The export structure has significantly upgraded, with high-value-added products increasing, making China the world's largest producer and exporter of automobiles [15][16]. Consumption as a Growth Driver - Consumption is identified as a key variable for future economic growth, with government policies like subsidies expected to continue to stimulate consumer spending [11][12]. - Increasing pension income for urban and rural residents, especially low-income groups, is seen as a significant measure to boost consumption and support economic transformation [12][13]. Addressing "Involution" Phenomenon - The article highlights the need for a collaborative approach involving market forces, industry associations, and government guidance to address the "involution" phenomenon in the economy [14][17]. Financial Sector Development in Shenzhen - Shenzhen aims to become a globally influential financial center by leveraging its proximity to Hong Kong, its manufacturing base, and its innovative environment [18][19]. - The city is focusing on integrating financial services with local industries, providing comprehensive financing support, and exploring innovative financial models suitable for emerging industries [19][20].

Core Viewpoint - Despite rising tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and increasing fiscal pressures, the global economy demonstrates significant resilience, primarily driven by the revolutionary transformation of artificial intelligence, flexible adjustments in trade directions by companies, moderate monetary and fiscal policy easing, and an overall loose financial environment [3]. Group 1: Global Economic Analysis - The resilience of the global economy is attributed to several factors, including the AI revolution, flexible trade adjustments, and supportive monetary and fiscal policies [3]. - Inflation in Asia is expected to remain at historically low levels, although China faces challenges related to domestic demand despite maintaining growth in the first three quarters of the year [3]. Group 2: Trade Impact of U.S. Tariffs - The UNDP report indicates that Southeast Asia's total exports to the U.S. may decline by 9.7% due to tariff-induced price increases, with Vietnam potentially experiencing a drop of 19.2%, which is double the regional average [3]. - Following the implementation of U.S. tariff policies, trade among Asian countries has increased, highlighting the region's economic flexibility and the opportunity for mutual development [4].

Core Viewpoint - The 17th Nomura China Investment Conference highlighted a shift in investor sentiment, with a focus on the resilience of the Chinese economy amidst global challenges and the significant role of AI in future growth [3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The global stock market is experiencing a robust recovery, driven by the technology sector, with China emerging as a key player [3]. - Despite concerns over US-China trade uncertainties, investments in AI are expected to propel future growth, with China playing a crucial role [4]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - China's economic growth is projected to slow to 4% in the coming quarters, with the government expected to implement measures to support growth [6]. - Long-term growth targets set by the government aim for 4.2% over the next decade, which poses significant challenges given the anticipated decline in export growth from an average of 8% to 3% [6]. Group 3: AI and Technology - Strong investments from major cloud service providers and AI clients are anticipated to drive robust growth in the global AI value chain over the next one to two years [7]. - China is building a self-sufficient AI supply chain, bolstered by domestic infrastructure such as chips and servers, and possesses strong advantages in algorithms and data [7]. Group 4: Monetary and Fiscal Policy - The market's focus is expected to shift towards fiscal stimulus policies, inflation trends, and support for the real estate market [8]. - Expectations for monetary easing, including interest rate cuts and liquidity injections, are likely to persist, indicating potential downward pressure on 2-3 year interest rates [9].

Core Viewpoint - Nomura is actively recruiting for various levels of Java backend developers, indicating a strong focus on enhancing its technology capabilities to support its global operations [2][3]. Group 1: Recruitment Information - Nomura Information Technology is consistently hiring for positions such as Associate Lead Software Engineer, emphasizing the need for expertise in React, API design, and DevOps [2]. - The company specifies experience requirements for different roles: Analyst (2+ years), Associate (5+ years), and Vice President (8+ years) [2]. Group 2: Company Overview - Nomura is a global financial services institution established in 1925, providing wealth management, investment management, and institutional services [3]. - Nomura Information Technology (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. is a subsidiary of Nomura Group, playing a crucial role in the global market technology and infrastructure [3]. - The primary responsibility of Nomura Information Technology is to build a high-performing development team that collaborates with global IT departments to maintain market-leading systems [3].

Group 1 - The global economy shows significant resilience despite rising tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and fiscal pressures, driven by AI transformation, flexible trade adjustments, and moderate monetary and fiscal policies [9] - China aims for resilient, stable, and inclusive economic growth from 2026 to 2030, focusing on self-reliance in technology, particularly in semiconductors and AI, while facing challenges such as demand fluctuations and a declining real estate market [12] - Japan's economic growth is expected to slow due to tariff impacts, but it can avoid recession, with core CPI inflation projected to drop below 2% by 2026 [15] Group 2 - The Asian economy (excluding Japan) presents mixed growth prospects, with a strong performance in the tech sector but challenges in non-tech sectors due to high tariffs on labor-intensive industries [19] - The Chinese internet sector's focus will remain on AI strategies and competition in the instant retail space, with expectations of reduced competitive intensity in the fourth quarter [22][23] - China is increasingly developing a self-sufficient AI supply chain, with significant investments in AI infrastructure and a focus on enhancing operational efficiency through large language models [26] Group 3 - Market attention is shifting towards fiscal stimulus policies, inflation trends, and real estate market support, with stable performance in the onshore stock market and steel-related commodities [30] - The A-share market's future growth will be driven by policy support, liquidity, and industrial upgrades, despite high valuations and the need for confirmed improvements in fundamentals [35]

Core Viewpoint - The 17th Nomura China Investment Conference has officially opened in Shenzhen, highlighting China's remarkable achievements and ongoing reforms in the financial market [2][6]. Group 1: Event Overview - The conference is co-hosted by Nomura and its joint venture, Nomura Orient International Securities, attracting over 40 companies and more than 400 investors [6][8]. - The event features a strong lineup of speakers, including renowned experts and leaders from various industries and technology sectors, as well as Nomura's economists, analysts, and strategists [9]. Group 2: Key Themes and Discussions - The conference will delve into major topics such as global economic outlook, advancements in humanoid robots, and large language models [9]. - Discussions will also focus on the development of the Chinese economy and key industries, including consumer trends and technological progress in artificial intelligence and semiconductors [9]. Group 3: Nomura's Commitment - Nomura has been in the Chinese market for over 40 years and is committed to supporting the development of China's financial market through its global network and joint ventures [6][8]. - The company has been operating its joint venture, Nomura Orient International Securities, for nearly six years since its establishment in 2019 [8].