2025 年野村中国投资年会已在深圳圆满落幕，野村经济学家、分析师和策略师为投资者、企业家深入剖 析市场动态，解读热点话题。请点击以下视频，查看野村主要发言嘉宾就市场变化、宏观经济走势、 AI 浪潮以及货币政策调整等核心议题进行的精彩分享和深入探讨。 Arvind Shah 野村亚洲（除日本外）股票研究销售主管 苏博文 Rob Subbarama 野村全球宏观研究主管及全 球市场研究部 联席主管 大家好。很高兴再次来到深圳，参加野村中国投资年会。今年是第17届中国投资论坛，我们看 到全球宏观讨论会场座无虚席。 我们在会上谈到了今年经济在面临来自美国关税和地缘政治的诸多冲击下，展现出韧性。展望 未来，我们还讨论到人工智能在推动经济体发展中变得越来越重要。我们的确也看到了日益增 长的分歧。我们预计美国2026年GDP增长2.4%、欧元区增长1.2%、日本增长0.6%。 但有趣的是，我们认为货币政策也将会大相径庭。我们认为美联储明年将再降息三次、欧洲央 行已经停止降息，日本央行将逆势而行在明年一月加息。 最后我想说，财政政策在减少全球预算赤字方面进展甚微。我们知道收入不平等在加剧，国 防、养老、气候变化、灾害方面的 ...

Group 1 - The global economy shows significant resilience despite rising tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and fiscal pressures, driven by AI transformation, flexible trade adjustments, and moderate monetary and fiscal policies [9] - China aims for resilient, stable, and inclusive economic growth from 2026 to 2030, focusing on self-reliance in technology, particularly in semiconductors and AI, while facing challenges such as demand fluctuations and a declining real estate market [12] - Japan's economic growth is expected to slow due to tariff impacts, but it can avoid recession, with core CPI inflation projected to drop below 2% by 2026 [15] Group 2 - The Asian economy (excluding Japan) presents mixed growth prospects, with a strong performance in the tech sector but challenges in non-tech sectors due to high tariffs on labor-intensive industries [19] - The Chinese internet sector's focus will remain on AI strategies and competition in the instant retail space, with expectations of reduced competitive intensity in the fourth quarter [22][23] - China is increasingly developing a self-sufficient AI supply chain, with significant investments in AI infrastructure and a focus on enhancing operational efficiency through large language models [26] Group 3 - Market attention is shifting towards fiscal stimulus policies, inflation trends, and real estate market support, with stable performance in the onshore stock market and steel-related commodities [30] - The A-share market's future growth will be driven by policy support, liquidity, and industrial upgrades, despite high valuations and the need for confirmed improvements in fundamentals [35]

Core Viewpoint - Nomura is actively recruiting for various levels of Java backend developers, indicating a strong focus on enhancing its technology capabilities to support its global operations [2][3]. Group 1: Recruitment Information - Nomura Information Technology is consistently hiring for positions such as Associate Lead Software Engineer, emphasizing the need for expertise in React, API design, and DevOps [2]. - The company specifies experience requirements for different roles: Analyst (2+ years), Associate (5+ years), and Vice President (8+ years) [2]. Group 2: Company Overview - Nomura is a global financial services institution established in 1925, providing wealth management, investment management, and institutional services [3]. - Nomura Information Technology (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. is a subsidiary of Nomura Group, playing a crucial role in the global market technology and infrastructure [3]. - The primary responsibility of Nomura Information Technology is to build a high-performing development team that collaborates with global IT departments to maintain market-leading systems [3].

Core Viewpoint - The 17th Nomura China Investment Conference has officially opened in Shenzhen, highlighting China's remarkable achievements and ongoing reforms in the financial market [2][6]. Group 1: Event Overview - The conference is co-hosted by Nomura and its joint venture, Nomura Orient International Securities, attracting over 40 companies and more than 400 investors [6][8]. - The event features a strong lineup of speakers, including renowned experts and leaders from various industries and technology sectors, as well as Nomura's economists, analysts, and strategists [9]. Group 2: Key Themes and Discussions - The conference will delve into major topics such as global economic outlook, advancements in humanoid robots, and large language models [9]. - Discussions will also focus on the development of the Chinese economy and key industries, including consumer trends and technological progress in artificial intelligence and semiconductors [9]. Group 3: Nomura's Commitment - Nomura has been in the Chinese market for over 40 years and is committed to supporting the development of China's financial market through its global network and joint ventures [6][8]. - The company has been operating its joint venture, Nomura Orient International Securities, for nearly six years since its establishment in 2019 [8].

Core Insights - The article highlights the successful onboarding program for graduates at Nomura, emphasizing the importance of training and support in the early stages of their careers [1][5][9] Group 1: Training and Development - Nomura's onboarding program included a three-week training covering fixed income, rates, credit, risk management, financial statement analysis, modeling, and valuation [1] - The program also featured workshops on public speaking, career development, and personal branding, aimed at enhancing the graduates' professional skills [1] Group 2: Cultural Environment - The supportive culture at Nomura is noted as crucial for new employees, fostering an environment where colleagues are willing to guide and assist each other [5][8] - The fast-paced nature of the work environment requires employees to handle diverse client needs and market dynamics, which can be challenging but rewarding [8][11] Group 3: Personal Growth and Future Aspirations - Graduates expressed a desire to contribute to the company's future, with aspirations to guide and support new entrants in their career paths [9] - The involvement in AI transformation at Nomura is seen as an exciting opportunity, with the potential to reshape client services and the financial industry [10]

Core Viewpoint - Nomura Asset Management has been awarded the "Overseas Investment Institution - Business Potential" recommendation by the China Insurance Asset Management Association (IAMAC) for the third consecutive year, highlighting its professional capabilities and service quality in the insurance asset management sector [1][3][5]. Group 1: Recognition and Awards - The award was presented at the "2025 Insurance Asset Management Industry Investment Business Exchange and IAMAC Recommendation Event" organized by IAMAC, which aims to promote long-term cooperation between insurance institutions and various financial entities [3]. - Liu Zheng, Chairman and Managing Director of Nomura Asset Management Hong Kong, expressed gratitude for the recognition, emphasizing the deepening trust and collaboration with Chinese insurance partners [5][6]. Group 2: Commitment to the Industry - Nomura Asset Management is committed to providing high-quality investment solutions and professional services to Chinese insurance institutions, aiming to create long-term investment returns and promote the healthy development of the insurance asset management industry in China [6]. - The company will continue to serve as a member of IAMAC's International Expert Advisory Committee, which consists of 30 global asset management firms, to enhance its advisory role [7]. Group 3: Company Overview - Established in 1959, Nomura Asset Management is Japan's largest independent investment management company and a leading global firm, with headquarters in Tokyo and offices in major financial hubs including Singapore, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Malaysia, Frankfurt, London, and New York [8]. - As of June 2025, Nomura Asset Management employs 1,360 staff globally, including 354 investment professionals, managing assets totaling $619 billion across various investment fields such as equities, bonds, ETFs, and multi-asset strategies [8].

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" (referred to as "15th Plan") is crucial for China's economic and social development from 2026 to 2030, with a draft to be submitted for review in March next year [4]. Group 1: Economic Context - China is the world's second-largest economy by nominal GDP and the largest by purchasing power parity, playing a significant role in global economic growth and consumption of major commodities [4]. - The government faces challenges due to the ongoing decline in the real estate market since 2021, which has impacted the economy [4]. Group 2: Planning and Goals - The government is likely to avoid setting specific growth targets for the "15th Plan," focusing instead on high-quality development, resilience, safety, and inclusiveness, with annual growth targets set later [5]. - A potential growth target of "around 4.5%" for 2026 is anticipated, gradually shifting to "around 4%" by 2030 [5]. Group 3: Investment and Policy Focus - Continued investment and industrial policies will be directed towards achieving technological self-reliance, particularly in semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and biotechnology [5]. - The traditional economy, centered around the real estate sector, will remain a growth pillar while efforts to address real estate market debt and fiscal system repair are expected [5]. Group 4: Social Welfare Reforms - The government may reform the social welfare system, especially the pension system, to achieve income redistribution, with significant increases in basic pension payments for low-income families and enhanced medical insurance subsidies [5].

Group 1 - The chairman of Nomura Holdings, Koji Nagai, participated in the 37th International Business Leaders Advisory Council for the Mayor of Shanghai (IBLAC) and provided suggestions [1] - This year marks the 11th meeting for Nagai since becoming a member in 2015, and Nomura has been attending IBLAC since its inception in 1989 [1] Group 2 - In a video, Nagai expressed the desire to strengthen cooperation with Shanghai as an international financial center, aiming to establish a sustainable relationship based on mutual respect [4] - He highlighted the importance of China's multilateral cooperation and open policies in the context of increasing global economic uncertainty, emphasizing Nomura's commitment to leveraging its global business network for the development of China's financial market [4] - Nomura's subsidiary, Nomura Orient International Securities, has been operating in Shanghai for six years, and the company plans to continue contributing to the city's development [4]

Core Viewpoint - Nomura is actively recruiting for various levels of Java backend developers, indicating a strong focus on enhancing its technology capabilities to support global market operations and infrastructure [2][3]. Group 1: Recruitment Information - Nomura Information Technology is consistently hiring for positions such as Associate Lead Software Engineer, emphasizing the need for expertise in React, API design, and DevOps [2]. - The company specifies experience requirements for different roles: Analyst (2+ years), Associate (5+ years), and Vice President (8+ years) [2]. Group 2: Company Overview - Nomura is a global financial services institution established in 1925, providing wealth management, investment management, and institutional services [3]. - Nomura Information Technology (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. is a subsidiary of Nomura Group, playing a crucial role in the global market technology and infrastructure development [3]. - The primary responsibility of Nomura Information Technology is to build a high-performing development team that collaborates with global IT departments and business stakeholders to maintain market-leading systems [3].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of insightful economic analysis and market predictions in today's complex financial environment [1] - The global macro research team at Nomura focuses on economic forecasting, including growth, inflation, fiscal conditions, and central bank policies [3] Group 1: Team Responsibilities and Approach - The core mission of the global macro research team is to conduct economic forecasts and identify market mispricing to provide strategic advice [3] - The research philosophy is that forecasting is more of an art than a science, incorporating data analysis, economic modeling, and geopolitical factors [3] - The team engages in field research and discussions with policymakers, scholars, and businesses to form comprehensive economic outlooks [3] Group 2: Leadership and Team Dynamics - The role of the global macro research head has shifted from direct research to management, focusing on guiding research direction and fostering team collaboration [5] - The team values stability and consistency, which allows for open challenges to predictive views and stress-testing of opinions [8] Group 3: Competitive Advantages - The team's ability to present bold, contrarian views sets them apart in the market, emphasizing the importance of original insights over consensus [8] - Nomura's strong presence in Asia is highlighted as a significant advantage, especially as the region's economic power grows [8] Group 4: Alignment with Corporate Mission - The research team aligns with Nomura's mission to leverage financial markets for global challenges and promote social prosperity [9] - By identifying strong economies and warning against weak markets, the team helps guide global capital towards productive areas [9]