Core Viewpoint - The speech by Dr. Lu Ting emphasizes the challenges faced by the U.S. government due to high financing costs, driven by significant deficits and debt, while highlighting China's growing manufacturing capabilities and the need for stable financial policies in China to navigate the evolving international order [4][5][6][7]. Group 1: U.S. Government Financing Challenges - The U.S. government is experiencing rising financing costs, with 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields increasing significantly, while the dollar has depreciated [5]. - The high financing costs are attributed to a combination of factors, including a defense spending to GDP ratio of approximately 3.5%, persistent trade deficits since the late 1960s, and a national debt of $36 trillion [5]. - The U.S. economy is shifting from manufacturing to a more service-oriented model, leading to increased wealth disparity and a decline in defense manufacturing capabilities [5]. Group 2: China's Manufacturing Strength - China's manufacturing sector now accounts for over 30% of the global market, with significant advancements in shipbuilding and artificial intelligence [6]. - In shipbuilding, China holds a 54% share of global tonnage and 75% of new orders, while the domestic industrial robot installation has surpassed that of all other countries combined [6]. - The proportion of top AI talent from China reached 47% in 2022, with expectations to exceed 50% by 2025, indicating a strong position in innovation and technology [6]. Group 3: Policy Recommendations for China - The stabilization of the real estate and stock markets is crucial for China's fiscal and monetary policies, with the People's Bank of China showing commitment through direct interventions [7]. - There is an urgent need to address real estate debt and ensure housing delivery, alongside stimulating consumption sustainably to support economic growth [7]. - The reform of social security and welfare systems is deemed essential for enhancing consumer capacity and influencing investment strategies [7]. - Leveraging Hong Kong's unique position for international collaboration and actively participating in the reconstruction of the global order is recommended, as evidenced by the recent recovery in the Hong Kong stock market [7].

Core Viewpoint - The 22nd Nomura Asia Investment Forum highlights the complexities of the current market environment, emphasizing the need for strategic adaptation and collaboration to seize emerging opportunities amidst challenges [2][5]. Group 1: Market Environment - The ongoing trade disputes have caused significant market volatility and disrupted traditional trade flows, leading to a re-evaluation of production layouts and global business strategies by many companies [5]. - Technological advancements, geopolitical shifts, and continuous economic policy adjustments present both challenges and opportunities for businesses [5]. Group 2: Company Strategy and Performance - Despite market fluctuations, the global market business of the company has demonstrated remarkable resilience and adaptability, reflecting strategic initiatives and client trust [6]. - The company aims to leverage its local advantages in Japan to build a robust revenue system across various business segments [6]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Positive signals from the Chinese economy have prompted the company to raise its GDP growth forecast for China to 4.5% for the year [7]. - India is identified as an attractive market with long-term opportunities, and the company is keen to expand its client base there [6]. Group 4: Forum Insights - The forum brings together experts from various fields, including economics, markets, geopolitics, tariff policies, asset allocation, and technology, to provide multi-dimensional insights [8]. - Approximately 850 investors and 140 companies are participating in the forum, indicating strong interest and engagement in the discussions [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights various museums that are particularly suitable for children, encouraging families to visit these educational and engaging spaces during holidays [2][5][13][15][18][22]. Group 1: Recommended Museums - Fotografiska in Shanghai offers a visually stimulating experience with a focus on photography, making it suitable for children under 7 who can enter for free [2]. - The National Museum of Natural History in Paris provides an immersive experience with numerous animal specimens and interactive screens for children, enhancing the educational aspect of the visit [5]. - Schönbrunn Palace in Vienna features multiple venues and a family-friendly environment, including a maze and playground, making it an ideal day out for families [8]. - The Beijing Ancient Architecture Museum showcases significant historical artifacts and offers engaging explanations, providing a cool environment for children to learn about Chinese history [13]. - The Shanghai Auto Museum displays a wide range of classic cars, allowing children to learn about automotive history in a family-friendly setting [15]. - The Metropolitan Museum of Art in New York offers a rich cultural experience, where children can engage with art through interactive guides, fostering a love for history and creativity [18]. - The Leonardo Interactive Museum in Florence allows children to interact with inventions and puzzles related to Leonardo da Vinci, making learning fun and memorable [22].

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes the importance of a strong support network for employee mental health through initiatives like the "Mental Health Awareness Week" [2][9]. Group 1: Support Initiatives - The company has established various support channels for employees, including a Mental Health Advocate Program, where trained volunteers provide listening support and help colleagues access mental health resources [2]. - All full-time employees and eligible family members can reimburse expenses for mental health treatment through the company's medical insurance plan [3]. - The Employee Assistance Program (EAP) offers specialized services from experienced psychologists and counselors, covering areas such as interpersonal relationships, career development, parenting guidance, and bereavement counseling [4][5]. Group 2: Employee Engagement - The company encourages employees to expand their social networks to strengthen support systems and foster an open and inclusive work environment [8]. - Anita Leung, the joint executive initiator of the mental health network, highlights the need for awareness that everyone may need help at times and the importance of being a support for others [6][8].

Core Viewpoint - Nomura has raised its GDP growth forecast for China due to recent US-China tariff adjustments and April economic data, indicating a positive outlook for the second quarter of 2023 [2][4]. Economic Data Summary - In April, the year-on-year growth rates for industrial added value, retail sales, and fixed asset investment slowed to 6.1%, 5.1%, and 3.6% respectively, compared to March's rates of 7.7%, 5.9%, and 4.3% [4]. - The first quarter data showed more stable growth rates of 6.5%, 4.6%, and 4.2% for the same metrics [4]. GDP Growth Forecast Adjustments - The second quarter GDP growth forecast has been raised from 3.7% to 4.8%, with slight increases for the third and fourth quarters from 3.6% to 4.0% [4]. - The full-year GDP growth forecast has been adjusted from 4.0% to 4.5% [4]. Export Growth Predictions - The export growth forecast for 2025 has been revised from -2.0% to 0.0% [5][6]. - The second quarter and third quarter export growth predictions have been raised to 6.0% and -2.0% respectively, while the fourth quarter forecast has been lowered to -8.6% [6]. Retail Growth Predictions - The retail growth forecast for the second quarter has been increased to 4.2%, driven by demand from the May Day holiday and the early start of the 618 e-commerce shopping festival [8]. - The full-year retail growth forecast has been slightly raised from 3.5% to 3.7% [8].

Core Viewpoints - Recent progress in China-US economic talks may lead to an upward adjustment in China's GDP growth expectations for Q2 due to a rebound in exports and significant tariff reductions [5][3] - The US has agreed to reduce tariffs by 115 basis points within 90 days, which exceeds previous expectations, but this only affects 6.5% of US imports [7][3] Group 1: China Economic Insights - The reduction in tariffs and a potential agreement on the fentanyl issue may stimulate a wave of suppressed exports, positively impacting China's GDP growth in Q2 [5][6] - The possibility of adjusting the 20% tariffs imposed on China due to the fentanyl issue exists, while the remaining 10% tariffs may be retained long-term [5][6] Group 2: US Economic Insights - The GDP growth forecast for the US has been moderately adjusted upward, with Q4 GDP growth now expected to increase by 0.2 percentage points to 0.8% [7][3] - The cumulative tariff rate on China will decrease to 30%, while China's tariff rate on the US will drop to 10%, indicating ongoing targeted tariff measures in specific industries [7][3] - The slow progress of trade agreements between the US and other countries suggests that the 10% tariff may become a challenging threshold to overcome [7][3]

Core Insights - The article highlights a summer reading event organized by Nomura, featuring recommendations from financial experts on various impactful books related to economics, labor, and technology [1]. Group 1: Economic Insights - "Prosperity and Stagnation: Japan's Economic Development and Transformation" by Takumitsu Ito and Yutaka Hoshi provides a comprehensive overview of Japan's post-war economic miracle and the reasons behind its prolonged stagnation, addressing challenges like deflation and an aging population through structural reforms [4]. - The book serves as a valuable resource for economists, policymakers, and market participants, offering insights into Japan's unique systems, trade policies, and financial frameworks [4]. Group 2: Labor and Society - "Transitional Labor: Delivery Riders in the Platform Economy" by Sun Ping explores the lives and labor conditions of delivery riders in China, introducing the concept of "transitional labor" to describe their high mobility and uncertainty driven by algorithms [7]. - The book combines academic depth with humanistic concern, appealing to readers interested in the gig economy, digital transformation, and labor rights, while reflecting on the ethical and social security implications of work in the digital age [7]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - "The Coming Wave" by Mustafa Suleyman and Michael Bascall discusses the origins and spread of technological revolutions, emphasizing the current wave centered around artificial intelligence and life sciences, which includes robotics, quantum computing, and energy transition [13]. - The authors analyze the characteristics of this technological wave, such as asymmetry, super-evolution, generality, and autonomy, providing insights into future opportunities and risks, while advocating for the necessity and feasibility of technology regulation [13]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - "Cycles" by Howard Marks offers a profound exploration of the cyclical nature of economies, businesses, and stock markets, making it a significant reference for those involved in stock research and investment, particularly in the technology sector [20].

谈及房地产行业，陆挺认为尽管当前房地产行业仍处于调整期，但在人口向大城市集聚、老旧住房 更新需求释放等趋势下，房地产市场仍有很大发展空间。他建议，剩余城市的限购限售可以进一步 取消，全面释放市场活力。同步加快行业债务出清进程，强化保交房政策执行力度，通过"保交付、 稳预期"重构购房者信心。 本文节选自腾讯财经《经济大家说》栏目对野村中国首席经济学家陆挺博士视频专访的专篇报道，请点击"阅读原 文"查看原报道。 2025年一季度中国经济以5.4%的增速超预期开局，彰显了中国经济在复杂环境下的韧性。然而，持 续的中美关税战仍为接下来的经济走势增添了不确定性。 面对内外挑战，野村中国首席经济学家陆挺在与腾讯财经《经济大家说》栏目对话时指出，中美贸易冲 突升级可能导致中国出口增速下降，叠加房地产行业萎缩，二季度起GDP增速或放缓。对此，他认为接 下来提振经济，需要进一步刺激消费，并稳住房地产。 在经历了两轮"以旧换新"政策后，耐用品刺激政策边际效应逐步递减，促消费政策可转向耐用品消 费之外，陆挺认为"推动养老体系改革和保障水平提升，才是最具效能的促消费工具。"他进一步给 出具体建议：提升农民养老金，通过增强中低收入群体 ...

第一财经资讯 . 以下文章来源于第一财经资讯 ，作者周楠 近期，野村在北京举行媒体交流会，邀请野村中国首席经济学家陆挺博士分享关于中国宏观 经济的最新观点。以下为《第一财经》的专篇报道。 陆挺 野村中国首席经济学家 关税风波持续近半 个月，其间，全球金融市场经历大幅震荡，人民币汇率波动加剧，A股市 场则先抑后 扬，在"国家队"出手稳市之后迅速回升。 "过去两个星期，国内的政策（执行）做得非常好。在前期非常关键的几天时间里，一个极为 重要的政策是，央行给'国家队'提供再贷款，这实际上就稳住了股市。"野村中国首席经济学 家陆挺表示，与此同时，近期汇市也逐步趋稳。 宏观经济方面，一季度经济数据最新出炉，多项指标表现超出市场预期，包括：一季度国内 生产总值（GDP）31.88万亿元，按不变价格计算，同比增长5.4%；一季度社会消费品零售 总额同比增速从前值3.7%跃升至4.6%。 下一阶段，如何进一步稳定市场、提振经济？陆挺在近期的媒体会上表示，未来需进一步稳 住股市、汇市和楼市。同时，刺激消费仍是重中之重，但在经历了两轮"以旧换新"之后，促 消费政策可转向耐用品消费之外的领域，例如，服务消费领域就具备一定的潜力。 ...

美国总统特朗普于当地时间4月2日签署"对等关税"行政令。近日，野村全球宏观研究团队就此对全球主要经 济体的影响发布了研究报告，以下为报告主要观点摘要。 野村全球宏观研究主管及全球市场研究部联席主 管 David Seif 野村发达市场首席经济学家 George Buckley 野村欧洲首席经济学家 苏博文 4月8日上午，在股市开盘前，中国商务部就美方威胁升级对华关税发表了谈话，回应美方威胁进一步对华加 征50%关税。发言中称"中方对此绝不接受。如果美方一意孤行，中方必将奉陪到底"。我们认为，这一发言 清晰地说明，如果特朗普继续实施新提出的50%关税，中国不仅会坚定地坚持34%的关税，而且还可能采取 相应的反制措施。 美国政府4月2日加征54%的关税，毫无疑问将会影响到中国的出口部门，拖累经济增长。中国对所有美国产 品加征34%关税，也将抑制其从美国的进口。因此，我们将2025年中国的出口和进口增长预期分别从0.0%和 2.0%，下调至-2.0%和1.0%。出口增长的下降将影响GDP的增长，但我们预测中国会有更大规模的财政刺 激，来弥补这一损失。因此，我们坚持对中国今年GDP增长为4.5%的预期。 陆挺 野村中 ...