Core Views - The core consumer price index in July increased by 0.322%, aligning closely with expectations, but the details indicate a dovish stance for the core personal consumption expenditures price index [1][2] - Inflation risks are still tilted upwards, with tariff-related price pressures continuing to manifest in goods inflation, particularly as auto manufacturers transition to new model years [3][4] Economic Outlook - The company anticipates that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in September, followed by further cuts in December and March of the following year, as employment data shows significant deterioration and inflation pressures are lower than previously feared [4][5] - Despite the economic growth outlook worsening since June, there are no signs of stress in the labor market or financial conditions, which reduces the likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut [5] Inflation Dynamics - The core personal consumption expenditures price index forecast for July has been revised down to a month-on-month increase of 0.243%, suggesting that both year-on-year and three-month annualized growth rates will be slightly below 2.9% [3] - The average month-on-month growth rate for the core personal consumption expenditures price index in June and July was only 25 basis points, lower than the Federal Reserve's June economic forecast of 3.1% for year-end [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing tension between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, highlighting Trump's pressure for interest rate cuts and the potential appointment of a "shadow chairman" to influence Fed policy [6][7]. Group 1: Economic Policy and Inflation - Trump has suggested that the federal funds rate should be lowered by 300 basis points, citing low inflation as a reason for the Fed to cut rates [6]. - If inflation rises in the next three months, it may complicate Trump's ability to pressure Powell, as he could appoint a shadow chairman to argue that any inflation increase is temporary [6]. - The short-term motivations of the U.S. government could lead to inflationary pressures, which may conflict with the Fed's long-term goals of economic stability [6]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Independence - Despite Trump's negative stance towards the Fed, it is difficult for him to significantly influence its policies due to the strong institutional framework and safeguards in place [7]. - Any new chairman appointed by Trump would still require Senate approval, and monetary policy decisions involve a committee of 19 members, making unilateral influence challenging [7]. - There is a risk that a new chairman aligned with Trump's views could undermine the Fed's independence, which could have detrimental effects on the U.S. economy and market confidence [7].

Core Viewpoint - Nomura Group is launching its 2025-2026 campus recruitment and internship programs, offering diverse positions across various departments to meet students' career development needs [2] Group 1: Recruitment Activities - Nomura will conduct both online and offline recruitment activities in the coming months, including events like "Nomura Carnival" and "Meet Nomura" to engage with potential candidates [2][3] - The "Nomura Carnival" will take place in Hong Kong and Singapore, allowing current interns and employees to share their experiences with students [2] - An Open Day event will also be held in Hong Kong and Singapore to provide insights into different career paths within the company [3] Group 2: Internship and Graduate Programs - Nomura offers three main programs for undergraduate and master's students: Summer Internship Program, Graduate Internship Program, and Graduate Program, with durations ranging from 9 weeks to 2 years [4][5] - The Summer Internship Program lasts 9-10 weeks, starting with training and business awareness courses, providing practical experience in departments like Global Markets, Investment Banking, and International Wealth Management [5][6] - The Graduate Internship Program is a 9-week opportunity for recent graduates to gain experience in sales, trading, product structuring, or research, with support from peers and mentors [7][8] - The Graduate Program spans 1-2 years, offering basic training and potential cross-functional rotations, with ongoing support and feedback from the team [9][10] Group 3: Recruitment Process - The recruitment process at Nomura includes steps from online application to formal onboarding, emphasizing the importance of thorough preparation for interviews [11][12] - Candidates are advised to research the company and departments of interest, articulating their motivations for joining Nomura during interviews [12] - Resources for interview preparation include the company website, press releases, annual reports, social media, and networking with faculty, alumni, and friends [13]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the insights of Rob Subbaraman, the global macro research head at Nomura, regarding the anticipated rise in inflation in the U.S. and the potential for stagflation as economic growth slows down in the second half of the year [3][6]. Inflation Drivers - The primary reason for the expected rise in U.S. inflation is the tariff measures implemented by the Trump administration, which have led to widespread price increases [8]. - Despite the current low inflation levels, Subbaraman believes inflation will intensify, predicting that the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) will rise to 3.3% by Q4 [7]. - The second factor contributing to inflation is the immigration policies of the Trump administration, which have resulted in labor shortages in key industries, thereby increasing wage pressures [9]. - Lastly, the Trump administration is expected to implement expansionary fiscal policies ahead of the mid-term elections, which could contribute an additional 0.4% to 0.5% growth to the U.S. GDP but also lead to inflation [9]. Tariff Implications - Subbaraman notes that the impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy may not be as limited as the market currently anticipates, suggesting that the administration may not back down easily from its tariff strategies [10]. - The logic behind the current tariff war extends beyond merely reducing trade deficits, encompassing geopolitical and diplomatic considerations as well [10][11]. - The article highlights a specific case where the U.S. plans to impose a 50% tariff on imports from Brazil, which reflects the broader implications of U.S. trade policies [11].

Core Viewpoint - The Jiangsu Urban Football League ("Su Chao") has gained significant popularity, reflecting the growing demand for entertainment and consumption in the region, which is indicative of economic development stages [1][9]. Group 1: Economic Impact - "Su Chao" serves as a new consumption scene, potentially boosting domestic demand and providing fresh ideas for economic stimulation [9]. - The league's success is closely tied to the cultural and tourism industry, showcasing the effective management and creative strategies of the Jiangsu provincial government [8][15]. - The event has led to increased local tourism, with over 73 million visitors reported on match days, highlighting its economic benefits for cities like Nantong [11]. Group 2: Community Engagement - The league fosters a strong sense of local identity among fans, as each city has its own unique history and culture, contributing to sustained enthusiasm for the matches [8][12]. - The organization of matches has been well-received, with high-quality engagement from both players and fans, indicating a positive community atmosphere [7][8]. Group 3: Future Prospects - The sustainability of "Su Chao" is expected to be high, with potential for further development in local sports infrastructure and youth training programs [12][18]. - Other cities in China can learn from Jiangsu's approach, but must adapt strategies to their unique circumstances to replicate success [17].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the insights of Dr. Lu Ting, Chief Economist at Nomura China, on the current state of China's macroeconomy, emphasizing the importance of supply-driven demand and the role of new consumption scenarios in boosting domestic demand [2][4]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Consumption - In May, China's total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year-on-year, marking a 1.3 percentage point acceleration from the previous month, with the "old-for-new" policy significantly contributing to this growth [5]. - The sales of household appliances surged by over 50% year-on-year in May, exceeding expectations, indicating a strong retail performance [5]. - The government aims to "greatly boost consumption and improve investment efficiency" as a top priority in its work report, suggesting a strategic focus on expanding domestic demand [4]. Group 2: Structural Economic Changes - The article highlights the ongoing structural transformation of China's economy, shifting from real estate to advanced manufacturing, with recent positive developments attributed to decades of accumulated benefits rather than short-term changes [7]. - The rapid development of China's manufacturing sector, particularly in industrial robotics, is noted, with domestic production rates exceeding 60% and total installations in 2024 surpassing those of other countries combined [7]. Group 3: Policy Recommendations - Dr. Lu emphasizes the need for a stable real estate market and effective debt resolution in the property sector to support consumer wealth, which is crucial for sustained consumption growth [5]. - Enhancing social security and welfare systems, along with addressing income distribution issues, is seen as vital for making consumption a key pillar of stable economic growth [5]. - The article suggests that creating new consumption scenarios, like the "Su Chao" football league, can stimulate demand and enhance local economic activity [6].

Core Viewpoint - The speech by Dr. Lu Ting emphasizes the challenges faced by the U.S. government due to high financing costs, driven by significant deficits and debt, while highlighting China's growing manufacturing capabilities and the need for stable financial policies in China to navigate the evolving international order [4][5][6][7]. Group 1: U.S. Government Financing Challenges - The U.S. government is experiencing rising financing costs, with 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields increasing significantly, while the dollar has depreciated [5]. - The high financing costs are attributed to a combination of factors, including a defense spending to GDP ratio of approximately 3.5%, persistent trade deficits since the late 1960s, and a national debt of $36 trillion [5]. - The U.S. economy is shifting from manufacturing to a more service-oriented model, leading to increased wealth disparity and a decline in defense manufacturing capabilities [5]. Group 2: China's Manufacturing Strength - China's manufacturing sector now accounts for over 30% of the global market, with significant advancements in shipbuilding and artificial intelligence [6]. - In shipbuilding, China holds a 54% share of global tonnage and 75% of new orders, while the domestic industrial robot installation has surpassed that of all other countries combined [6]. - The proportion of top AI talent from China reached 47% in 2022, with expectations to exceed 50% by 2025, indicating a strong position in innovation and technology [6]. Group 3: Policy Recommendations for China - The stabilization of the real estate and stock markets is crucial for China's fiscal and monetary policies, with the People's Bank of China showing commitment through direct interventions [7]. - There is an urgent need to address real estate debt and ensure housing delivery, alongside stimulating consumption sustainably to support economic growth [7]. - The reform of social security and welfare systems is deemed essential for enhancing consumer capacity and influencing investment strategies [7]. - Leveraging Hong Kong's unique position for international collaboration and actively participating in the reconstruction of the global order is recommended, as evidenced by the recent recovery in the Hong Kong stock market [7].

Core Viewpoint - The 22nd Nomura Asia Investment Forum highlights the complexities of the current market environment, emphasizing the need for strategic adaptation and collaboration to seize emerging opportunities amidst challenges [2][5]. Group 1: Market Environment - The ongoing trade disputes have caused significant market volatility and disrupted traditional trade flows, leading to a re-evaluation of production layouts and global business strategies by many companies [5]. - Technological advancements, geopolitical shifts, and continuous economic policy adjustments present both challenges and opportunities for businesses [5]. Group 2: Company Strategy and Performance - Despite market fluctuations, the global market business of the company has demonstrated remarkable resilience and adaptability, reflecting strategic initiatives and client trust [6]. - The company aims to leverage its local advantages in Japan to build a robust revenue system across various business segments [6]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Positive signals from the Chinese economy have prompted the company to raise its GDP growth forecast for China to 4.5% for the year [7]. - India is identified as an attractive market with long-term opportunities, and the company is keen to expand its client base there [6]. Group 4: Forum Insights - The forum brings together experts from various fields, including economics, markets, geopolitics, tariff policies, asset allocation, and technology, to provide multi-dimensional insights [8]. - Approximately 850 investors and 140 companies are participating in the forum, indicating strong interest and engagement in the discussions [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights various museums that are particularly suitable for children, encouraging families to visit these educational and engaging spaces during holidays [2][5][13][15][18][22]. Group 1: Recommended Museums - Fotografiska in Shanghai offers a visually stimulating experience with a focus on photography, making it suitable for children under 7 who can enter for free [2]. - The National Museum of Natural History in Paris provides an immersive experience with numerous animal specimens and interactive screens for children, enhancing the educational aspect of the visit [5]. - Schönbrunn Palace in Vienna features multiple venues and a family-friendly environment, including a maze and playground, making it an ideal day out for families [8]. - The Beijing Ancient Architecture Museum showcases significant historical artifacts and offers engaging explanations, providing a cool environment for children to learn about Chinese history [13]. - The Shanghai Auto Museum displays a wide range of classic cars, allowing children to learn about automotive history in a family-friendly setting [15]. - The Metropolitan Museum of Art in New York offers a rich cultural experience, where children can engage with art through interactive guides, fostering a love for history and creativity [18]. - The Leonardo Interactive Museum in Florence allows children to interact with inventions and puzzles related to Leonardo da Vinci, making learning fun and memorable [22].

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes the importance of a strong support network for employee mental health through initiatives like the "Mental Health Awareness Week" [2][9]. Group 1: Support Initiatives - The company has established various support channels for employees, including a Mental Health Advocate Program, where trained volunteers provide listening support and help colleagues access mental health resources [2]. - All full-time employees and eligible family members can reimburse expenses for mental health treatment through the company's medical insurance plan [3]. - The Employee Assistance Program (EAP) offers specialized services from experienced psychologists and counselors, covering areas such as interpersonal relationships, career development, parenting guidance, and bereavement counseling [4][5]. Group 2: Employee Engagement - The company encourages employees to expand their social networks to strengthen support systems and foster an open and inclusive work environment [8]. - Anita Leung, the joint executive initiator of the mental health network, highlights the need for awareness that everyone may need help at times and the importance of being a support for others [6][8].